Money Tree Investing

Laura Adams shares her journey into personal finance, podcasting, and authorship with her new book Money-Smart Solopreneur. She shares how she transitioned from corporate finance aspirations to helping individuals improve their money management through writing and podcasting. She discusses the evolution of book publishing, the growing need for supplemental income due to inflation and stagnant wages by starting side businesses, and practical advice on identifying marketable skills. We discuss... Laura Adams has worked in personal finance for nearly 15 years, transitioning from a corporate finance path after noticing even smart professionals struggled with money basics. Her passion for financial education led her to blogging and podcasting in the mid-2000s, eventually growing the "Money Girl" community. Writing books is a major undertaking that requires deep effort, especially when promotion is involved. Her dream of seeing her book on bookstore shelves motivated her to pursue traditional publishing, despite the changing landscape of book promotion. How the financial pressures facing many Americans today, especially due to inflation. Laura encouraged people to consider starting a side business to supplement income and access tax advantages. Side businesses should ideally be enjoyable since they often take place during personal time. Starting small and testing the market with minimal upfront investment is a smart approach to launching a side hustle. People should leverage existing skills and interests when brainstorming side business ideas. If your goal is quick income, practical gigs like freelancing, tutoring, or becoming a virtual assistant may be for you. Many people feel intimidated by starting a business but advised against overthinking early-stage logistics. Wait until a side business earns around $10,000 annually before worrying about formal structures like LLCs or accountants. Market research through conversation can spark ideas and reveal where your talents might fill a gap. Iterative experimentation are a great way to discover what business ideas are both enjoyable and viable. For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/money-smart-solopreneur-718    Today's Panelists: Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth Douglas Heagren | ProCollege Planners Follow on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/moneytreepodcast Follow LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/showcase/money-tree-investing-podcast Follow on Twitter/X: https://x.com/MTIPodcast  

Transcribed - Published: 6 June 2025

AI will change your life! Are you ready? Today we dive into the evolving landscape of AI, the capabilities and limitations of current AI models like ChatGPT, Claude, Grok, and Gemini, and why most users don't get the results they truly want. While AI is a very powerful but immature tool, learning how to use it effectively will help you to stay relevant in the workforce and can benefit your personal life as well. AI disruption is inevitable and potentially beneficial but it also raises serious questions about human adaptability for a rapidly changing future. We discuss... Frustrations around AI tools like ChatGPT, Gemini, Claude, Grok, and DeepSeek, especially when users expect too much without giving clear input. The importance of context and prompting in getting valuable responses from AI. Most people use AI poorly, often giving it vague or vanity prompts without depth. Our industrial-era mindset doesn’t prepare us to use AI effectively, and adaptation is essential. AI can assist with tasks like job postings or report generation, results depend heavily on user input. AI disruption will be massive, though adoption will happen gradually over time. The first wave of job losses will hit those who don’t learn how to use AI tools. Identity—such as being a provider, parent, or worker—could be threatened by AI taking over meaningful roles. Ego and confirmation bias could limit AI’s effectiveness as a truth-telling tool. While AI can process inputs and generate useful outputs, it still requires thoughtful human analysis. The U.S. housing market has shown nearly 500,000 more sellers than buyers — the largest gap on record. Credit conditions has deteriorated — 2.3 million borrowers have dropped into subprime credit territory Student loan delinquencies have spiked sharply since collections resumed in May. Nearly $100 million has been collected by Treasury and the Department of Education from defaulted borrowers. Average rent prices have declined, yet overall consumer stress has risen due to financial pressure. Housing prices remained elevated, but affordability has deteriorated, putting pressure on cash-strapped households. Mortgage availability remains key to housing demand, as the majority of buyers rely on loans, not cash. Google search trends reveal more people are asking AI and search engines basic “adulting” questions, like how to use a mop or credit card.   Today's Panelists: Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth Douglas Heagren | ProCollege Planners Follow on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/moneytreepodcast Follow LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/showcase/money-tree-investing-podcast Follow on Twitter/X: https://x.com/MTIPodcast For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/ai-will-change-your-life-717

Transcribed - Published: 4 June 2025

Kurt Carlton discusses the inefficiencies of the MLS for a good real estate investment strategy. It's currently hard to find good deals, an MLS doesn't show the scale of vacant housing in the U.S., and some sellers often prefer off-market options that avoid inspections and repairs. We also talk broader market dynamics as today’s challenges stem not from distressed sellers, as in 2008, but from an aging housing stock and a severe shortage of new construction. Local real estate investors are best positioned to help restore inventory by rehabilitating vacant homes, offering a scalable solution to a long-term housing crisis.  We discuss... Kurt Carlson has nearly 20 years of experience in real estate, specializing in distressed and value-add residential properties. Unlike the MLS, Kurt's real estate platform targets off-market and undervalued properties not suited for traditional homebuyers. The MLS is inefficient for distressed properties, as typical buyers are discouraged by repairs and inspections. Investors view property issues as opportunities to create value through design, rehab, and operational efficiency. Many realtors prefer listing distressed homes on Kurt’s marketplace rather than handling inspections and contractor coordination. Local investors can rehab properties more efficiently and cost-effectively than distant or uninformed sellers. There are roughly 15 million vacant homes in the U.S., presenting massive hidden inventory potential. Despite high housing demand, new construction is at historic lows—fewer homes are being built now than in 1992. Builders face high regulatory costs, land expenses, tariffs, labor shortages, and unpredictable demand cycles. Government programs often inflate demand rather than addressing supply constraints in affordable housing. Local real estate investors are critical to solving the housing crisis by repurposing vacant homes into livable inventory. Supply-demand imbalance persists because builders can’t profitably create affordable housing in high-demand areas. There is plenty of capital in the market, but the housing market is not clearing due to mismatches in pricing and affordability. Out of all homes sold in the U.S., one in five is purchased by a real estate investor, the majority of whom buy fewer than 10 homes per year. The perception that Wall Street is dominating the housing market is misleading; most activity is by small business operators. There is strong demand for single-family rentals (SFR), especially for families who don’t want to live in apartments. Revitalizing a few homes in neglected neighborhoods can start a chain reaction that attracts more investment and increases values. Today's Panelists: Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth Barbara Friedberg | Barbara Friedberg Personal Finance Follow on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/moneytreepodcast Follow LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/showcase/money-tree-investing-podcast Follow on Twitter/X: https://x.com/MTIPodcast For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/real-estate-investment-strategy-kurt-carlton-716 

Transcribed - Published: 30 May 2025

AI is getting smarter, but are we ready? Today we deep dive into the evolution of tools like ChatGPT—from early, academic-sounding outputs to more recent capabilities that include humor, sarcasm, and nuanced storytelling. We explore how AI is rapidly improving but still faces a gap in practical, transformative use cases for the average person. The adoption curve is slow, but so it has been for past innovations like video games, the internet, and crypto. While AI is becoming more accessible, it hasn’t yet reached full mainstream integration, but it eventually will. We discuss... The explosion of AI interest since ChatGPT’s launch and its shift from novelty to everyday tool. How AI is getting better at sarcasm, creativity, and sounding more human unlike early AI with bland writing and a poor grasp of humor and nuance. The challenge of finding truly impactful AI use cases beyond convenience tools. The tech adoption spectrum, from everyday users to coders, and how AI fits into that. How AI follows a familiar tech adoption curve—past early adopters, not yet fully mainstream. Comparisons between AI today and early stages of gaming, internet, or crypto adoption. The idea that we’re still just scratching the surface of what AI can do in daily life. ChatGPT commands the most attention, Claude comes in a distant second, and Gemini is barely on the radar. Google is quietly testing a lead generation product (likely Local Services Ads) as a new revenue source. AI hasn’t yet reached the point of autonomously solving problems without user guidance. AI tools can produce mediocre output by default but become shockingly good with proper input and structure. AI isn’t replacing jobs yet, but people who know how to use AI are replacing those who don’t. There are viral examples of teens using AI to launch apps with multi-million dollar revenues. The more specific the prompt, the better the AI’s output—clarity is key. Business tasks like running scenarios, correlations, and planning can be done instantly with AI. There’s huge potential for public-facing AI avatars to field press, lead webinars, or handle customer interactions. Users respond well to AI when it's honest about being non-human—transparency builds trust.   Today's Panelists: Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth Douglas Heagren | ProCollege Planners Follow on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/moneytreepodcast Follow LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/showcase/money-tree-investing-podcast Follow on Twitter/X: https://x.com/MTIPodcast For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/ai-is-getting-smarter-715 

Transcribed - Published: 28 May 2025

Your bad estate plan is going to cost you! In today's episode, Lauren Klein, a Florida-based tax and estate planning attorney, discussed the critical components of effective estate planning. She debunks myths about revocable trusts, touches on the importance of regularly updating estate plans, and shares on the unethical financial incentives some attorneys may have to let plans fall short. We also talk the strategic use of irrevocable trusts, asset titling, and state-specific protections like Florida’s homestead laws for enhanced asset security. We discuss... Lauren Klein is a Florida-based tax, trust, and estate attorney who works nationally, helping clients with estate planning, probate avoidance, and tax strategies. Probate happens when someone dies owning assets solely in their name without a beneficiary or trust.  Probate adds stress during grief and often sparks disputes—especially if there’s no clear plan or distant relatives get involved. Family fights usually come from unresolved issues, emotional baggage, or greed. Clear planning helps prevent conflict, though it can’t always stop it. Many assume a will or trust avoids probate, but trusts must be properly funded—assets need to be retitled into the trust or have it listed as beneficiary.  The estate planning industry is too transactional—clients get documents but little follow-up. After a death, families often struggle to locate and transfer assets legally while grieving. It requires attorneys, paperwork, and patience. A common myth is that revocable trusts protect assets from taxes or lawsuits. They don’t during your lifetime—but they help avoid probate and add control. Revocable trusts shine when passing assets to kids. They can protect inheritances from divorce or lawsuits and become irrevocable (and stronger) after death. Trusts are especially helpful for blended families and young kids. You can distribute assets in stages and add estate tax protection with proper planning. Irrevocable trusts offer stronger protections but are more complex and better suited for high net worth or special planning needs. Asset protection varies by state—Florida, for example, offers homestead and tenancy protections. Even how you title a car can matter. Retirement accounts and life insurance have some protection, but it depends on the state. Listing all assets is key to building a strong estate plan. Crypto is showing up more in estate planning. It requires special steps to protect and transfer securely. Today's Panelists: Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth Barbara Friedberg | Barbara Friedberg Personal Finance Phil Weiss | Apprise Wealth Management Follow on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/moneytreepodcast Follow LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/showcase/money-tree-investing-podcast Follow on Twitter/X: https://x.com/MTIPodcast For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/bad-estate-planning-lauren-klein-714 

Transcribed - Published: 23 May 2025

China tariffs are causing big problems right now. Today we talk about the recent developments in U.S.-China trade relations, particularly the temporary pause in tariffs and the broader implications for investor sentiment and economic narratives. The fear over supply chain disruptions quickly faded once tariff discussions resumed—even though actual inventory issues remained unresolved. We also analyzed a new Republican tax bill, highlighting key proposals like eliminating taxes on tips and overtime, allowing deductions for car loan interest, and introducing a “MEGA account” to support education, home buying, and small business loans. We discuss...  Trump temporarily paused tariffs on China for 90 days, reducing tensions and prompting speculation on political motives. Despite ongoing inventory lags, public and media attention has waned following the tariff pause announcement. People often react to headlines and political gestures without examining the actual impact or facts on the ground. Wall Street quickly shifted from fear to optimism despite unresolved issues, illustrating emotional market swings. Consumer sentiment has rapidly reversed from bearish to bullish, reflecting how quickly perception can change. Buffett’s principle of being fearful when others are greedy remains relevant in today’s sentiment-driven market. The proposed GOP tax bill includes a “No Tax on Tips” provision, widely supported as fair for service workers. A new “MEGA Account” is proposed to help with education, small business loans, and first-time homebuyer costs. The IRS uses audits not primarily to collect money but to scare people into compliance, as stated by an IRS official. Low-income taxpayers are disproportionately audited due to earned income tax credit claims. Wealthy individuals can afford legal support, making IRS audits less impactful for them compared to lower earners. The U.S. housing market is now at its most unaffordable level in recorded history. Mortgage rates are back to their historical average and unlikely to drop meaningfully. The Fed's long-term involvement in mortgage-backed securities has distorted the housing market. Interest rates remain high, and the Fed has yet to significantly cut, raising questions about the rationale for past rate cuts. For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/china-tariffs-are-causing-big-problems-713 

Transcribed - Published: 21 May 2025

Ashley Morgan is here to share on filing for bankruptcy the right way. There has been a rising demand for bankruptcy services amid job losses and contracting challenges in the D.C. area, particularly among government contractors, and Ashley's VA based Law Practice has been doing a lot of work on these cases for both individuals and businesses. Ashley explains how bankruptcy can offer a fresh start, protect certain assets like homes or retirement accounts, and in some cases discharge tax and SBA debt. The conversation also covers the complexity of student loan discharge, the importance of asset protection and planning before filing, and misconceptions around credit damage post-bankruptcy.  We discuss...  Ashley Morgan, a bankruptcy attorney near D.C., discussed the rising demand for her services amid increasing job losses, particularly among government contractors. The economic slowdown in the D.C. area is creating a trickle-down effect, impacting local small businesses as stable government money dries up. Bankruptcy is a legal, court-supervised process to eliminate or restructure debt, offering individuals a fresh financial start. The U.S. system allows broader bankruptcy relief compared to many other countries, though outcomes depend heavily on income, assets, and debt type. Common types of bankruptcy include Chapter 7 (liquidation), Chapter 13 (repayment plan), Chapter 11 (business restructuring), and Chapter 12 (for farmers/fishermen). Chapter 11 is often used by large businesses to renegotiate leases, restructure payments, or close unprofitable locations. Small business owners can file Chapter 7 to shut down a business, but Chapter 11 can be cost-prohibitive for many. Personal credit isn't always impacted by business bankruptcy unless the owner personally guaranteed business debt. Bankruptcy doesn’t automatically ruin credit—many filers see credit scores rebound shortly after filing. Asset protection during bankruptcy varies by state; homestead exemptions can protect homes, but limits differ widely. Timing and transparency are critical—transferring assets before filing may trigger fraudulent conveyance issues. Retirement accounts (e.g., 401(k)s, IRAs) are often protected and can be used strategically before filing. Student loans are generally not dischargeable, though rare exceptions exist through adversary proceedings under "undue hardship." SBA and certain tax debts may be dischargeable under specific conditions, like being sufficiently old and properly filed. Ashley emphasizes the importance of early education, legal consultation, and realistic expectations about outcomes when considering bankruptcy. Today's Panelists: Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth Barbara Friedberg | Barbara Friedberg Personal Finance Follow on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/moneytreepodcast Follow LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/showcase/money-tree-investing-podcast Follow on Twitter/X: https://x.com/MTIPodcast   For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/filing-for-bankruptcy-ashley-morgan-712 

Transcribed - Published: 16 May 2025

This hidden bull market is actually lying in plain sight! Find out what it is today as we discuss media fear-mongering, unhelpful propaganda, Bitcoin and gold, and more. The central banks continue accumulating gold, emphasizing its historical role as a long-term store of value, and noting that despite the rise of digital assets like Bitcoin (which the U.S. now holds as a reserve), gold's cultural and material significance remains deeply embedded worldwide. Oh, and we also got a new Pope! We discuss...  A new Pope from the U.S., Pope Leo XIV (formerly Robert Prevost of Chicago), was elected, contradicting Jim Cramer's confident prediction. The Pope had a 1% chance in betting markets, showing how off-market odds can be and how unexpected outcomes can deliver large returns. A widely shared headline warned that Earth will run out of oxygen, but buried in the article was the timeline—1 billion years from now. Climate change is a hard-to-measure issue that’s often politically weaponized and based on unprovable long-term models. Propaganda exists across all eras and agendas, including pro-America messages like those in 80s movies such as Top Gun. Spotting propaganda and political messaging can be useful for investors trying to understand broader narratives and their market implications. Governments often downplay crises right before they hit, and historically, such reassurances can be a red flag to start worrying. Recognizing themes in media, like global warming or military conflicts, can help investors anticipate policy moves or market shifts. Nuclear energy is an example of a rational solution ignored for political reasons, illustrating how policy can ignore practical options. Wealthy investors and central banks are buying more gold, reinforcing gold's role as a long-term store of value. Gold continues to be culturally significant and trusted across civilizations, unlike newer assets like Bitcoin. The U.S. government has decided to hold confiscated Bitcoin as a reserve asset, further legitimizing it in financial circles. There's growing speculation that Bitcoin could evolve into a reserve asset for central banks, similar to gold. Banks have transitioned from resisting Bitcoin to finding ways to monetize it, suggesting institutional acceptance is rising. Gold has significantly outpaced wage growth since 2000, reinforcing its strength as a store of value amid stagnant real income. Crypto has displaced silver as the inflation-hedge asset of choice among younger investors, hurting silver’s narrative. Long-term tailwinds for silver include green tech applications like solar panels and EVs, which could reignite demand. Gold and silver miners have underperformed despite rising bullion prices, with some major miners currently unprofitable. Mining companies face structural inefficiencies, making many poor business models despite gold’s rise. Institutional caution, reflected in moves by figures like Warren Buffett, indicates potential market hesitancy despite retail optimism.   Today's Panelists: Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth Douglas Heagren | ProCollege Planners Follow on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/moneytreepodcast Follow LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/showcase/money-tree-investing-podcast Follow on Twitter/X: https://x.com/MTIPodcast For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/hidden-bull-market-711 

Transcribed - Published: 14 May 2025

Anthony Georgiades shares the future of venture capital in the age of AI. He shares his journey from an early failed startup to becoming a deeply technical investor focused on frontier technologies. He emphasizes the importance of technical literacy in venture capital, especially when evaluating deep tech. We also touch on the economic and existential risks of AI, emphasizing the need for governance, transparency, and decentralized control, while pointing to robotics as a slower-moving but ultimately transformative force in the physical economy. We discuss...  Anthony Georgiades shared his background in business, venture capital, and a technical pivot into computer science and robotics. A failed early startup experience drove him to gain deeper technical proficiency to better assess and build emerging technologies. He emphasized the importance of deeply understanding deep tech and being able to speak fluently with technical founders. Web3 use cases are becoming more real, with examples like decentralized AI inference, verifiable model outputs, and on-chain computation. He highlighted the importance of decentralized GPU marketplaces and AI-native blockchains as potential disruptors. Web3’s decentralized financial infrastructure enables instant, global, and permission-less access to financial instruments. Banks remain entrenched due to regulatory, compliance, and sovereign monetary systems, despite growing disruption. Crypto is unlikely to replace fiat overnight due to legal, infrastructure, and fractional reserve complexities. AI is seen as the most inevitable trend, already impacting industries across the board. The exponential development of foundation models and the importance of proprietary data are creating a winner-take-most dynamic. Web3, though earlier in development, is viewed as more disruptive due to its potential to create new markets and rewrite institutional frameworks. He acknowledged real short- and long-term risks with AI, including economic displacement, misinformation, and loss of control. Existential AI risk stems from misaligned goals, where intelligent systems could pursue objectives with harmful side effects. Open models, auditable systems, and decentralized infrastructure are key to safer AI development. Robotics is considered the “final frontier” of disruption, especially as intelligent machines become capable of operating in the physical world. Use cases like autonomous farming are emerging as impactful applications of robotics innovation. Today's Panelists: Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth Barbara Friedberg | Barbara Friedberg Personal Finance Phil Weiss | Apprise Wealth Management   Follow on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/moneytreepodcast Follow LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/showcase/money-tree-investing-podcast Follow on Twitter/X: https://x.com/MTIPodcast For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/venture-capital-in-the-age-of-ai-anthony-georgiades-710   

Transcribed - Published: 9 May 2025

The central banks are hoarding this asset while they wait for Trump's next move! In the meantime, Warren Buffett’s announced his official retirement and his handoff of leadership to Greg Abel. We talk Buffett’s post-2000 investment choices, the reasons he may have avoided buying Microsoft despite his close friendship with Bill Gates, and the challenges of managing massive capital. The hosts also touch on Buffett’s preference for capital-efficient, moat-heavy businesses and his indirect exposure to Microsoft through index holdings. We also discuss recent economic news, negative GDP print driven by rising inventories and reduced government spending. We discuss...  Warren Buffett officially announced his retirement, passing leadership to Greg Abel. Buffett’s consistent outperformance over decades, despite criticisms of his recent picks. Buffett's size as an investor was cited as a limitation, forcing him to seek only very large investments. The recent negative GDP print, noting concerns around economic slowdown. Inventory buildup ahead of Trump-era tariffs artificially skewed GDP figures. Net exports and reduced government spending are key contributors to the negative GDP number. Consumer spending was also shown to have slowed, adding to concerns about potential recession signals. A sharp drop in consumer spending could be a clear economic indicator of a downturn. Business investment surged after Trump’s election due to economic optimism but has since stalled amid uncertainty Many business owners are holding back on investment due to a lack of visibility under the current administration. Shipping delays from China can take 30 days, meaning tariff effects won't be felt immediately but are now becoming visible. A drop in container orders from China suggests supply chain disruptions are already underway. The "bullwhip effect" explains how small supply chain changes can cause large swings in inventory and pricing. Warren Buffett is still sitting on significant cash, possibly anticipating better buying opportunities amid market volatility. A coming inventory crunch could cause inflation as demand outstrips constrained supply. Post-COVID rebounds in same-store sales distort trend lines and may create false signals. The official CPI of 21% over five years doesn’t align with real-world price experiences, suggesting data manipulation. Government inflation numbers may be inaccurate or understated, leading to misguided investing decisions. Investors should rely on personal experience and intuition—the “bullshit detector”—instead of blindly trusting official data.   Today's Panelists: Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth Douglas Heagren | ProCollege Planners Follow on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/moneytreepodcast Follow LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/showcase/money-tree-investing-podcast Follow on Twitter/X: https://x.com/MTIPodcast For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/central-banks-are-hoarding-this-asset-711

Transcribed - Published: 7 May 2025

Diana Perkins shares how you can master your emotions through discipline for trading success. Her journey has taken her from a childhood fascination with finance to building a career in trading and eventually launching her own trading education business. She mentors aspiring traders and emphasizes that long-term success is overwhelmingly about emotional discipline and risk management.  We discuss...  Diana Perkins shares that she knew finance was her calling from a young age, charging her sister interest on loans at age nine. She fell in love with trading stock options and derivatives, and mentors hundreds of aspiring traders. Today, Diana runs her own trading education business focused on teaching new traders with an emphasis on risk management. Most traders, particularly currency traders, tend to blow up at least one account as a "rite of passage." Fear, greed, and mindset are much bigger factors in trading success than simply knowing technical skills. Diana works extensively with options traders, helping them overcome the initial intimidation of options complexity. She emphasized the importance of discipline and emotional control in trading over just understanding strategies. Her favorite strategy when trading professionally is vertical spreads because of their limited risk and “set it and forget it” nature. She shared that she still trades today, both in her own account and through a virtual portfolio for her stock-picking service. Most people’s natural instincts — fear, greed, impatience — are what make trading so challenging. Even random stock picks can perform well if trade management and discipline are handled properly. Diana emphasizes that discipline, probability, and risk management are at the core of successful trading, not just stock picking. It's important to focus on the amount of premium at risk rather than the number of contracts or shares controlled. Verticals require holding to expiration to capture full profit potential since gains are capped. Implied volatility (IV) can often cause seemingly "off" prices, particularly around earnings and major events. Consistency over time is critical to profiting from strategies like IV trading, much like "sell in May" seasonality trades. While AI tools can assist, she double-checks everything manually due to her auditing background and mistrust of "black box" systems. Although past performance isn't predictive, understanding human psychology — fear and greed — can offer powerful trading insights. Today's Panelists: Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth Barbara Friedberg | Barbara Friedberg Personal Finance Douglas Heagren | Pro College Planners Follow on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/moneytreepodcast Follow LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/showcase/money-tree-investing-podcast Follow on Twitter/X: https://x.com/MTIPodcast   For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/discipline-for-trading-success-diana-perkins-708 

Transcribed - Published: 2 May 2025

This is a big move in this shiny asset! While everything else in the market is seeing big changes, gold is not different. We are also in earnings season, and major companies' reports can influence markets. Business uncertainty, especially around tariffs, has caused a dramatic slowdown in corporate spending. Forecasting has become very difficult, but there are signs of a potential recession, yet it's still important to avoid echo chambers when forming investment views.  We discuss... Inflation has significantly raised prices at restaurants between 2020 and 2025, with breakfast items like IHOP pancakes seeing an 82% price increase. Companies are cautious during the current earnings season, often dampening future expectations due to economic uncertainty and tariffs. A North American manager reported that customer spending and shipping orders have frozen up worse than during COVID, threatening layoffs. People seek confirmation of their beliefs and the danger of echo chambers in investing and life. Successful investors should seek out contradictory evidence rather than self-confirming narratives. Value stocks like McDonald’s and Coca-Cola have been resilient and largely unaffected by tariffs. Investors should examine their ETFs' holdings and individual stock performance closely. Many mega-cap tech stocks have struggled despite strong revenue growth since 2021. A new generation of investors is facing real market pullbacks for the first time, leading to potential emotional decision-making. Risk is always present in markets, regardless of "risk on" or "risk off" environments. Diversification and proper risk management should be done before volatility hits, not after. Technology stocks are especially vulnerable to liquidity tightening and reduced spending. Global liquidity is showing signs of increasing outside the U.S., helping international markets outperform. Recessions, though painful, are necessary for economic health and market resets. Gold has been very strong recently, staying above its 200-day moving average. The gold-to-silver ratio is historically high, suggesting silver is extremely undervalued relative to gold. Proper ratio trades remove general market movement risk but require strong discipline and understanding.   Today's Panelists: Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth Douglas Heagren | ProCollege Planners Follow on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/moneytreepodcast Follow LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/showcase/money-tree-investing-podcast Follow on Twitter/X: https://x.com/MTIPodcast   For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/big-move-in-this-shiny-asset-707 

Transcribed - Published: 30 April 2025

We're joined by Frances Reaves, who shares insights from her work in estate and Medicaid planning, on how to get your parents ready for long term care. Frances explains the importance of preparing for elder care before it's urgently needed, sharing her personal experience with her own parents and husband, who is currently navigating Alzheimer's care. The conversation dives into the realities of elder care, including the challenges of navigating the healthcare system, the high costs of in-home versus facility care, and the value of long-term care insurance.  We discuss...  Francis Reads is an elder law attorney specializing in estate and Medicaid planning. She founded a service within her law firm called “Parent Your Parents” to support elder care planning. Elder care generally begins around age 65, when Medicare becomes available. A major challenge in elder care is systemic apathy and poor communication in facilities. In-home care is the gold standard if money is no object, costing $12,000–$15,000 per month. Reverse mortgages and long-term care insurance are common strategies to fund elder care. Long-term care insurance works similarly to car insurance—ideally unused but crucial. The cost of long-term care and facilities can quickly deplete even sizable retirement savings. The best age to purchase long-term care insurance is between 55 and 60. For-profit facilities are incentivized to keep patients alive, not necessarily to improve their quality of life. If you have no one to care for you, plan ahead with long-term care insurance, savings, and legal documents like power of attorney and healthcare proxy. People who choose to provide full-time care often risk financial ruin if long-term care plans or savings are not in place. There’s potential to arbitrage life expectancy in financial tools like reverse mortgages or life insurance. Many elders struggle with losing independence, especially around giving up driving. Adult children often become parental figures to their own parents, which can create emotional strain. Financial advisors and lawyers play a key role in spotting and preventing elder financial abuse. Professionals should watch for signs of undue influence or financial exploitation and speak up if concerned. Today's Panelists: Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth Barbara Friedberg | Barbara Friedberg Personal Finance Phil Weiss | Apprise Wealth Management Follow on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/moneytreepodcast Follow LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/showcase/money-tree-investing-podcast Follow on Twitter/X: https://x.com/MTIPodcast   For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/long-term-care-h-frances-reaves-706 

Transcribed - Published: 25 April 2025

Good times... Bad markets! Today we talk about recent volatility in the market, particularly in the bond market, as there is a lot of geopolitical uncertainty that are coming with Trump’s economic moves. There may be a market downturn of up to 40% and the Fed will respond most likely respond by cutting rates, a familiar cycle in which political and monetary forces intervene to stabilize markets. Ultimately, if there's a recession, we still don't need to panic, the US markets are still strong so invest accordingly! We discuss... Market volatility recently spiked to levels not seen since COVID, driven by geopolitical and fiscal uncertainty. Trump’s unpredictable moves reintroduced risk into the markets, which had become too complacent. The Fed is currently in a wait-and-see mode, which markets interpret as a lack of proactive response. Trump criticized the Fed for not following the ECB in cutting rates, claiming it weakens U.S. competitiveness. The podcast host believes the market can handle high rates and criticized Powell’s pre-election rate cut as political. A continued market selloff is expected, with potential drops of 30–40% in the S&P 500 this year. If markets decline significantly, the Fed is likely to step in and cut rates to stabilize things. Historically, market declines have been followed by Fed intervention, which then props markets back up. A mild recession is likely before any recovery, but the overall economy remains fundamentally strong. Tariffs are currently painful for businesses but are viewed as a negotiation tactic rather than a permanent fixture. Markets dislike uncertainty, and the next six months are expected to be rocky before clarity returns. Keeping cash on hand is advised to take advantage of potential lower asset prices Americans are generally uncomfortable with negotiation and volatility compared to the rest of the world. Manufacturing may not fully return to the U.S., but diversification is critical for national security. Time dilation and recency bias cause people to misjudge the permanence of current events like tariffs. Leaders like Trump and Powell are motivated by legacy, not destruction. A stronger dollar could hurt gold and hard assets but elevate the U.S. as the most stable economy. Investors should routinely reassess their holdings to see if they would still buy them today. Always identify the potential exit point for any investment to manage risk.   Today's Panelists: Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth Douglas Heagren | ProCollege Planners Follow on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/moneytreepodcast Follow LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/showcase/money-tree-investing-podcast Follow on Twitter/X: https://x.com/MTIPodcast For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/good-times-bad-markets-705 

Transcribed - Published: 23 April 2025

Dan Rasmussen returns to talk about how to invest during this global paradigm shift. Rasmussen shares how the post-2008 investment environment has shifted, with international markets now outperforming, volatility spiking, and the dollar weakening. He critiques the AI investment narrative, challenges in AI profitability, the misalignment between AI hype and real-world economic value, and the implications of rising geopolitical and market uncertainty.  We discuss... Dan Rasmussen runs the hedge fund Verdad, focusing on microcap value, credit, and market-neutral strategies. His new book, The Humble Investor, compiles insights from a decade of writing research notes. How the post-2008 market was defined by low volatility, strong U.S. equity performance, and growth stock dominance. In 2025, international markets have started outperforming U.S. equities, signaling a potential regime shift. As AI skepticism grows, tech giants have seen declining returns due to increased capital intensity. The profitability of AI investments remains unclear, with few killer applications and unsustainable infrastructure costs. Chipmakers like Nvidia require enormous customer spending just to justify current valuations. The long-term viability of AI, citing high operational costs and uncertain end-user benefits. Rising market volatility, potentially driven by politics and the dollar, is pushing investors toward safer, lower-volatility assets. Despite years of underperformance, international investing may be entering a comeback phase. Google is testing a shift from a pay-per-click to a pay-per-lead ad model in select zip codes. ChatGPT is becoming a preferred tool for research due to speed, accuracy, and reduced noise compared to Google. The uncertainty around AI profitability makes current tech valuations speculative and potentially risky. Potential large-scale layoffs in government and academia could ripple through the broader economy. Shifting public-sector workers to private-sector roles is uncertain and may not offset job losses. Despite Trump’s influence, AI is seen as a more dominant force for markets than political shifts. Japan is highlighted as a promising international market due to undervalued stocks with fortress balance sheets. Gold has become a favored allocation, with some portfolios holding as much as 35% due to recent strong performance. Today's Panelists: Megan Gorman | The Wealth Intersection Douglas Heagren | Pro College Planners Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth Follow on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/moneytreepodcast Follow LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/showcase/money-tree-investing-podcast Follow on Twitter/X: https://x.com/MTIPodcast For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/global-paradigm-shift-dan-rasmussen-704

Transcribed - Published: 18 April 2025

There's a second big move in the S&P 500 and it's going to change things! Today we reflect on a historic and volatile week in the markets, highlighting dramatic swings that included 40- to 50-year extremes. We also talk investor psychology, client reactions, and the importance of focusing on long-term planning rather than daily market noise. There's also been a mystery investment that has quietly outperformed this year despite a lack of media attention so it's important to pay attention to all the trends, even the ones that aren't getting mainstream attention. We also share on Warren Buffett’s enduring success, Trump’s negotiation tactics, and how to spot overlooked opportunities by tracking what isn't crashing when everything else is.  We discuss... A mystery investment that's performed exceptionally well in 2024 but has received zero media attention. How under-the-radar assets often outperform when no one is paying attention. Billionaires lost large amounts of money this year—except Warren Buffett, who gained $12.7 billion. Charts from the previous week showed bond-related assets and corn among top performers, while energy and cannabis sectors lagged. Some Dow stocks barely moved during the selloff—specifically Coca-Cola and McDonald’s. We encourage investors to look for stocks that remain resilient during market downturns as potential buying opportunities. Trump’s negotiation tactics with China are giving markets a breather while keeping pressure on. Strength in gold miners, healthcare, and food & beverage was cited as areas to watch moving forward. Social media sentiment is largely negative, with most companies underperforming regardless of size. Low volatility stocks are the notable outliers, performing better than other equity factors. Alternative assets like preferreds and hedge funds are also experiencing significant declines. Gold is the surprise top-performing asset this year, up sharply and widely ignored by even gold enthusiasts. Financially strong companies are likely to outperform in uncertain markets and come out stronger. U.S. processed food is often lower quality than international versions, yet less regulated domestically. The 200-day moving average is a key rule of thumb—nothing good tends to happen below it. Global equity markets, particularly Europe and Latin America, remain positive year-to-date despite recent pullbacks. European stocks may offer opportunity, but the speaker expresses skepticism over Europe’s long-term competitiveness. The U.S. dollar is down 4% year-to-date and recently broke below its multi-year trading range. Crypto has been mixed, with Bitcoin holding up better than Ethereum but still failing to protect during downturns. Short-term U.S. Treasuries are a reasonable safe option, but cash in one’s own currency is the best defense. Investors should stay cautious and avoid big risks during uncertain times, even amid major rebounds. Today's Panelists: Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth Douglas Heagren | ProCollege Planners Follow on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/moneytreepodcast Follow LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/showcase/money-tree-investing-podcast Follow on Twitter/X: https://x.com/MTIPodcast For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/second-big-move-in-the-sp 

Transcribed - Published: 16 April 2025

Beau Henderson joins us to dive into the often misunderstood world of Social Security planning. Beau highlights how only 4% of people claim their benefits in a way that maximizes lifetime value. We discuss why Social Security is so confusing: its overly complex rules, lack of personalized advice from the SSA, and the financial planning industry's limited focus on optimization due to low compensation incentives. Beau also breaks down a three-step process to make better Social Security decisions. We discuss... Beau Henderson worked in retirement planning for over 25 years, focusing heavily on Social Security optimization. A mentor’s poor Social Security decision inspired Beau to dig deeper into the system and help others avoid costly mistakes. Many people take Social Security based on incomplete or misleading advice, often lacking proper context. The Social Security Administration cannot legally give personalized advice, which leaves many without adequate guidance. There are over 500 possible combinations of how a household can claim Social Security benefits. Beau breaks Social Security planning into three key steps: organize your financial picture, understand the rules for your household, and model different claiming scenarios. Most households leave over $200,000 on the table due to suboptimal Social Security decisions. Social Security decisions should be integrated with income distribution planning and tax strategy. Sometimes taking benefits earlier can make sense if it supports personal goals like retiring earlier. Many people don’t realize that the Social Security decision affects not just them but their spouse’s future as well. Common fear about Social Security cuts are largely media-driven; legislation changes tend to happen slowly. The worst-case scenario is likely a 20% benefit reduction, not elimination, and future generations will see more significant changes. Up to 85% of your Social Security benefit may be taxable depending on your income level. Proactive tax planning, like Roth conversions, can help reduce the tax burden on Social Security income. Survivor benefits are an important yet often overlooked aspect of Social Security planning. Today's Panelists: Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth Barbara Friedberg | Barbara Friedberg Personal Finance Phil Weiss | Apprise Wealth Management Follow on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/moneytreepodcast Follow LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/showcase/money-tree-investing-podcast Follow on Twitter/X: https://x.com/MTIPodcast For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/social-security-planning-beau-henderson-702 

Transcribed - Published: 11 April 2025

There is a big move coming in the S&P 500. In today's episode we dive into the recent market volatility triggered by geopolitical tensions, tariffs, and investor sentiment. We talk on the challenge of predicting markets and the importance of investing discipline, especially amid fear-driven reactions. And despite a possible short-term bounce, the market may remain in a downtrend. Tariffs also play a role in all of this so it's important to note real intent behind economic policy shifts, and how media narratives often distort the bigger picture. Learning to separate political bias from financial decision-making is key.  We discuss... The title “Big Move in the S&P 500 is Coming” turned out to be timely despite being chosen a week in advance. Recent market volatility was attributed to unexpected tariffs and general investor fear. The S&P 500 remains significantly overvalued, with a current PE ratio around 34 versus a historical average of 17. A 50% drop in the market would return valuations to historically normal levels. Investor psychology suggests more panic-selling could happen early in the following week before a potential bounce. Markets typically don’t move in straight lines and operate within up-and-down momentum cycles. Conservative positioning is advised; sitting on the sidelines may be the safer play for now. The only assets showing strength recently are crypto (Bitcoin, Ethereum), the VIX, bonds, and a few niche equities like corn and select homebuilders. Investors should separate political views from market expectations—markets don’t move based on who's in office alone. Hedge fund selling contributed to the rapid downturn, but circuit breakers were not triggered. New tariffs aim to support U.S. employment and reduce reliance on China but will likely raise import prices and disrupt supply chains. Decoupling from China is a long-term goal, but current policy actions are more blunt than strategic. Trump’s unpredictable comments can swing markets dramatically, underscoring the need to focus on fundamentals over headlines. The COVID-19 pandemic acted as a catalyst for the market downturn, but the market was already overheated prior to 2020. The U.S. government may benefit from locking in lower rates on its debt, providing some relief if the economy slows Tariffs and market volatility may lead to long-term disruptions, affecting investments like 401(k)s, as negotiations continue. Gold is considered a secret bull market amid chaos, with institutional and government demand increasing. Bonds are not performing as strongly as in previous market downturns, indicating ongoing challenges in fixed-income markets. The crypto market has shown unexpected resilience despite a broader market selloff, which could be a slightly bullish indicator. China and the US are in a trade conflict, with the US trying to counter unfair tariffs, but this may lead to shifts in global supply chains to countries like Vietnam and India.   Today's Panelists: Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth Douglas Heagren | ProCollege Planners Follow on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/moneytreepodcast Follow LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/showcase/money-tree-investing-podcast Follow on Twitter/X: https://x.com/MTIPodcast For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/big-move-in-the-sp-701 

Transcribed - Published: 9 April 2025

Ladislas Maurice joins us today to discuss the benefits of global investing. He shares his experience in emerging markets, and the investing benefits of getting a second citizenships. He shared insights on identifying macro opportunities in various countries, such as Uzbekistan's stock market and Egypt's real estate deals. He emphasized diversification to manage risk and shares the benefits of second citizenships, including access, security, and generational opportunities. Today we discuss...  Ladislas Maurice shared his background in law, business, and his expat career with Nestlé before transitioning into global investing. He has spent the last eight years traveling full-time, investing in emerging markets, real estate, and exploring residency and citizenship solutions. Ladislas' investment approach involves spotting macro opportunities and then determining how best to play them on the ground. The importance of diversification in emerging markets to mitigate risks and handle portfolio volatility. How international real estate can offer residency and even citizenship benefits in some countries. Panama as a popular residency option, especially for Americans looking to hedge political uncertainty. The cyclical nature of Americans seeking second residencies based on political shifts in the U.S. People should not make rash decisions but instead take a step-by-step approach to investing and relocating abroad. The benefits of second citizenships, including travel freedom, access to opportunities, and protection against geopolitical risks. Countries offering citizenship through investment, including Turkey, Egypt, and Caribbean nations. Birthright citizenship in places like Mexico, Canada, and Brazil can be a strategic option for families. Today's Panelists: Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth Barbara Friedberg | Barbara Friedberg Personal Finance Phil Weiss | Apprise Wealth Management Follow on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/moneytreepodcast Follow LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/showcase/money-tree-investing-podcast Follow on Twitter/X: https://x.com/MTIPodcast  For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/global-investing-ladislas-maurice 

Transcribed - Published: 4 April 2025

Is your social security safe from DOGE? Today we talk about the big changes coming to the Social Security Administration and how (or if) they impact you!  We talk about social securities origins as a safety net, its current insolvency trajectory by the early-to-mid 2030s, and the political challenges of reform. We critique the past government inaction and explores potential solutions. Don't worry, your social security won’t disappear overnight so make rational decisions rather than reacting to media-driven fear. We discuss...  Market volatility and the significance of quarter-end movements. Tax-loss selling at year-end can lead to market bottoms in certain assets. Social Security was originally created as a safety net for those unable to support themselves. A demographic imbalance is stressing Social Security’s financial stability. Without intervention, Social Security is projected to be insolvent by the early-to-mid 2030s. Potential solutions include extending eligibility ages and adjusting benefits. Some proposals suggest cutting administrative costs rather than benefits. Future reforms may involve income-based benefit reductions or delayed eligibility. The likelihood of Social Security disappearing entirely is extremely low. We advise against making rash Social Security decisions based on media fear-mongering. Social Security planning remains a critical topic, with past loopholes removed as the government adapts to prevent system exploitation. Previously, retirees could take Social Security early at 62, repay it later, and reset their benefits, but this strategy has been eliminated. The decision to take Social Security early or delay it depends on individual financial needs and life expectancy. Break-even analysis suggests waiting until full retirement age (67) can be beneficial for those with longer life expectancy. Raising the full retirement age to 70 could extend Social Security solvency by billions of dollars. Adjustments to cost-of-living calculations have historically been used to slow benefit inflation and extend program viability. The current Social Security payroll tax cap of $160,000 could be raised or removed to increase funding. Increasing payroll tax rates slightly could help stabilize the program’s finances. Social Security has one of the lowest administrative costs among government programs, with about 99% of funds going directly to benefits. Historical tax changes under Reagan and Clinton increased Social Security taxation thresholds, and further increases remain possible. Legislative changes to Social Security, including benefit reductions or age increases, can happen quickly with little warning. Market volatility continues to be a major concern, with seasonal patterns and large equity inflows despite broader uncertainty. Investors should be cautious of overpaying for stocks with declining growth while seeking undervalued opportunities.   Today's Panelists: Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth Douglas Heagren | ProCollege Planners Follow on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/moneytreepodcast Follow LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/showcase/money-tree-investing-podcast Follow on Twitter/X: https://x.com/MTIPodcast   For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/social-security-safe-from-doge-699 

Transcribed - Published: 2 April 2025

Shelby McFaddin is here to discuss investment management for your portfolio in 2025's volatile stock market. Shelby discusses her time at Motley Fool Asset Management and shares her journey from studying economics and international affairs to working in private and public equity before transitioning to her current role. She shared insights on her investment strategy, highlights the challenges of stock picking in today's market, and emphasizes the importance of quality over chasing trends. She also talks the impact of macroeconomic factors, inflation, and interest rates on investing, and the housing market’s unexpected resilience.  We discuss... Shelby McFaddin shared her background in economics and international affairs, detailing her transition from institutional asset management to stock picking at Motley Fool Asset Management. She focuses on retail and consumer-exposed stocks, driven by her interest in human behavior and its impact on economic trends. Shelby follows a "growth at a reasonable price" (GARP) approach, balancing valuation considerations with growth potential. She highlights the difficulty of value investing in recent decades and how she evaluates opportunities by comparing industry peers rather than relying solely on historical valuations. Dividend-paying and shareholder-friendly companies play a role in her strategy, particularly those with strong cash flows and capital return policies. Inflation is expected to remain elevated and interest rates to stay higher for longer, shaping her investment outlook. The paradox of the housing market, where high interest rates have not lowered home prices but instead frozen supply and affordability. The Fed’s role in the economy may require more government intervention than people expect. AI is being integrated into business operations to streamline processes and increase efficiency. Investors are becoming more discerning about companies delivering on cloud and data center promises. The market punishes companies for missing expectations but not as severely as before. The concentration of stock market gains in a few companies raises concerns about broader growth. Lack of analyst coverage and institutional interest limits small-cap stock visibility. Investors are looking for companies that can efficiently allocate capital expenditures. The lack of movement in small-cap stocks is attributed to systemic rather than company-specific issues. Retail and institutional investors struggle to justify small-cap exposure due to risk and liquidity concerns. Today's Panelists: Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth Barbara Friedberg | Barbara Friedberg Personal Finance Douglas Heagren | Pro College Planners   Follow on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/moneytreepodcast Follow LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/showcase/money-tree-investing-podcast Follow on Twitter/X: https://x.com/MTIPodcast  For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/investment-management-shelby-mcfaddin-698   

Transcribed - Published: 28 March 2025

There are some overvaluation in these stocks that may shock you! Today we discuss concerns over the stock market's high valuations, with a historical P/E ratio of around 17 now sitting at roughly 35, indicating extreme overvaluation comparable to the tech bubble. There is a risk of a potential 50% market correction and those who have only experienced rising markets, may be unprepared for downturns. We talk about the importance of hedging, reassessing portfolios, and understanding that economic conditions, stock markets, and politics do not always align. We discuss...  Current market valuations, with the P/E ratio at historically high levels near 35. A 50% stock market decline would bring valuations back to historical averages. Many investors are overly reliant on continued market growth. Differentiating between politics, the economy, and the stock market, and avoiding emotional investing. Institutional investors shifting into safer assets like short-term treasuries. Highlighted increasing institutional interest in private credit and alternative investments. Investors with capital are preparing opportunistically rather than out of fear, ensuring flexibility to take advantage of market shifts. The US market has dominated for two decades, but historical trends suggest international markets could rotate into favor. European markets have performed exceptionally well this year, with countries like Germany, Spain, and the UK posting double-digit gains. US-centric investing is common, but diversification into international markets is crucial for risk management. The US market is currently underperforming, with the S&P 500 down approximately 8-10% year-to-date. Emerging markets, including India, Mexico, and parts of Africa, are experiencing significant GDP growth. Investors should be cautious with emerging markets due to political instability and economic volatility. A potential 30-40% market correction in the next two years raises concerns about finding safe investment havens. Bonds may not provide the usual refuge if yields and prices continue their current trends. Stagflation could create an unpredictable economic environment, similar to the confusion of the 1970s. The shift from US to international investing remains an ongoing trend, with Europe currently showing strong performance. People often fail to understand market dynamics, where news-driven price movements often lead to selling once the news is out. The U.S. government has declared Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies as a strategic reserve but says it won't sell them unless necessary. Markets are unpredictable, with current patterns possibly indicating a topping phase, signaling potential future downturns. The job market shows signs of weakening, with decreasing job openings and increasing layoffs, which could indicate economic challenges ahead. Today's Panelists: Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth Douglas Heagren | ProCollege Planners Follow on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/moneytreepodcast Follow LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/showcase/money-tree-investing-podcast Follow on Twitter/X: https://x.com/MTIPodcast For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/overvaluation-in-these-stocks-697  

Transcribed - Published: 26 March 2025

Lia Holmgren, a former psychotherapist turned full-time stocks trader and trading coach, joins the podcast to discuss the trading mindset. As a stock trading coach she shares how her background helps traders manage discipline, risk, and emotional control. Lia details her approach to options trading, preferring long-term leaps on high-quality stocks and selling covered calls for additional income, while stressing the importance of position sizing and risk management. Learn how you can trade more successfully and without emotion as today we discuss...  Lia Holmgren shares her background, originally from former Czechoslovakia, now a full-time stocks and options trader with a past in psychotherapy. She explains how her upbringing instilled strong financial habits, leading her to explore investing and later trading. Lia works with traders as a performance coach, helping them manage emotions, risk, and discipline. She observes that fewer women enter trading due to natural risk aversion and societal influences but notes a growing interest among women in financial education. One of the biggest issues Lia sees in traders is poor risk management and misunderstanding risk-to-reward ratios. She teaches a simple risk management formula that she believes is life-changing for retail traders. Institutional traders often struggle with ego and emotional challenges, especially during losing years. Lia explains her position sizing approach, typically risking no more than 1% of her account per trade. How traders need to focus less on being right and more on maximizing profits while controlling losses. Lia holds about 20 individual stocks, adjusting the portfolio periodically. Taxes play a role in trading decisions, but delaying exits for tax reasons can backfire. How she prefers selling options over buying, particularly for short-term plays in high-volatility stocks. 2025 is expected to bring market volatility and choppiness, making swing trading more challenging. Today's Panelists: Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth Douglas Heagren | Pro College Planners Jeff Hulett | Finance Revamp Follow on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/moneytreepodcast Follow LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/showcase/money-tree-investing-podcast Follow on Twitter/X: https://x.com/MTIPodcast For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/trading-mindset-lia-holmgren-696 

Transcribed - Published: 21 March 2025

We are back in the middle of housing bubble 2.0. Today we cover recent market corrections, investor psychology, and the importance of perspective when managing investments. We talk recent market downturns and real estate. Including the concerns over rising FHA mortgage defaults, government intervention artificially propping up housing prices, and the potential for a significant correction if foreclosure backlogs are released into the market.  We discuss... The U.S. stock market recently declined about 10%, marking an official correction and triggering investor anxiety. Many investors struggle with perspective, reacting emotionally to short-term losses rather than focusing on long-term strategy. U.S. markets have outperformed international markets for the last 20 years, but history suggests this trend may reverse. A 30-40% market correction would simply bring valuations back to historical norms, not signal economic collapse. Financial success means little if it comes at the cost of personal well-being, stress, or strained relationships. Ray Dalio’s phrase "cash is trash" is context-dependent, as cash can be a valuable asset in volatile markets. Holding cash during downturns can significantly improve investment positioning when markets recover. The housing market faces risks due to a high FHA mortgage default rate, currently at 14%, one of the highest in history. Government intervention has kept foreclosures from hitting the market, potentially propping up home prices artificially. An estimated 400,000 foreclosures are backlogged due to government support, posing a risk if policies change. If government mortgage relief ends, housing inventory could rise sharply, leading to potential price corrections. Media outlets prioritize sensationalism over useful financial insights, making independent research critical. The economy remains fragile, and regardless of leadership, structural issues could lead to economic challenges. A correction in housing prices could trigger more foreclosures and increase rental market pressure. Cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum remain volatile but are still significantly up from past lows. Investors must adapt to bear markets, as different strategies are required compared to bull markets. Real estate affordability issues stem from government intervention and prolonged cheap credit policies. If housing supply increases rapidly, sellers could panic, leading to a sharper market decline.   Today's Panelists: Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth Douglas Heagren | ProCollege Planners Follow on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/moneytreepodcast Follow LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/showcase/money-tree-investing-podcast Follow on Twitter/X: https://x.com/MTIPodcast   For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/housing-bubble-2-0-695 

Transcribed - Published: 19 March 2025

Kate McAndrew shares her experience with venture capital AI and how it is disrupting the industy. She also talks about unconventional journey into venture capital, from studying art history at McGill to running an accelerator in the Southeast before moving to San Francisco and co-founding Baukunst, a $100M fund focused on pre-seed investments. Kate discusses the venture capital cycle, the advantages of investing at the earliest stages, and the high-risk, high-reward nature of her approach. We discuss...  Kate McAndrew shares her unconventional journey into venture capital, starting with an art history degree and entrepreneurial ventures. She explains the venture capital cycle, highlighting her focus on the earliest stages of company building. The fund emphasizes technology and design-driven innovation over pure tech solutions. Kate believes strong businesses with real enterprise value naturally find successful exits. She describes how her firm supports founders through recruiting, product strategy, and board participation. Kate argues that despite industry changes, great businesses are always built by great founders. Mega venture capital funds now dominate the market, reshaping valuations and the early-stage funding landscape. Top talent will always attract capital, and fund managers must focus on identifying exceptional companies rather than investing in every deal. The venture capital model prioritizes upside potential over downside protection, unlike private equity. The AI investment landscape is shifting from infrastructure to application-layer innovations. AI is becoming an essential part of all new technology companies, much like mobile technology once did. AI adoption may take longer than expected due to human behavioral factors and trust issues. SEO and traditional search-based marketing may become obsolete as AI-generated responses improve. AI is moving toward full automation of specialized white-collar jobs, raising concerns about economic and societal impacts. Some in Silicon Valley are focused on ensuring AI development aligns with ethical and environmental responsibility. While AI will disrupt many industries, human connection and purpose-driven work will remain valuable. Today's Panelists: Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth Phil Weiss | Apprise Wealth Management Follow on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/moneytreepodcast Follow LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/showcase/money-tree-investing-podcast Follow on Twitter/X: https://x.com/MTIPodcast  For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/venture-capital-ai-trends-kate-mcandrew-694 

Transcribed - Published: 14 March 2025

Will Warren Buffett's Predictions come true? We'll find out as today, the discussion centers around frustrations with the U.S. healthcare system, how longevity and health tie into financial planning and financial planning complexities with all the current economic unpredictability. The U.S. government has also officially designated confiscated Bitcoin as a strategic reserves and we're also still in the midst of a national debt crisis. We also talk government inefficiencies, policy changes, and interest rates.  We discuss...  Health insurance is frustrating due to high premiums and out-of-pocket costs before coverage kicks in. The system feels broken, requiring significant payments just for the right to pay more before benefits apply. Healthcare plans often don't cover preventive care, like vitamins or quarterly blood tests, which could reduce long-term costs. A comparison to homeowners insurance highlights the absurdity of paying for minor expenses while also paying for coverage. One speaker's insurance costs dropped dramatically when switching from an exchange plan to a corporate-sponsored plan. Life insurance companies conduct more thorough health tests than standard healthcare providers, which seems counterintuitive. Basic, cost-effective tests like fasting glucose are often omitted due to insurance cost-cutting measures. Health metrics are based on shifting averages rather than optimal health standards, normalizing unhealthy ranges. Society adjusts standards to accommodate unhealthy lifestyles rather than incentivizing better health. A personal “year of health” initiative focuses on longevity rather than growth, emphasizing balance, flexibility, and endurance. Longevity experts suggest lifestyle changes that promote long-term well-being, rather than just immediate fitness gains. The healthcare system prioritizes treatment over prevention, even when prevention could save costs in the long run. Financial planning must evolve to account for longer life expectancies, requiring strategies to ensure money lasts. Advances in longevity science could fundamentally change the healthcare system and financial planning. Future health innovations may extend life expectancy, raising questions about economic and social impacts. Bill Perkins' book Die With Zero promotes the idea of optimizing life experiences rather than leaving wealth behind. Planning to die with nothing is difficult due to unpredictable lifespan and financial variables. Financial planning must account for changing tax rates, inflation, market crashes, and policy shifts. Predictions in finance, like oil prices, are often inaccurate due to uncontrollable external factors. Financial plans become obsolete quickly and require constant updates. Guardrails in financial planning help maintain spending levels within a safe range. The U.S. has officially designated confiscated Bitcoin as a strategic reserve. The government is not selling or acquiring more Bitcoin but is holding existing assets. Strategic reserves, including oil, have historically been mismanaged for political purposes. Concerns exist that a Bitcoin reserve could be manipulated for political gain. The U.S. dollar’s status as the world’s reserve currency could be impacted by legitimizing Bitcoin. The Mar-a-Lago Accords propose restructuring U.S. debt by issuing long-term, zero-interest bonds to allies. The U.S. debt is growing at an unsustainable rate, adding a trillion dollars every 90 days. Innovative financial solutions are needed to address mounting national debt. The idea of eliminating daylight savings time is seen as a common-sense policy change. A previous initiative allowed the public to propose policy ideas to the government. The cost of producing pennies has exceeded their face value, raising questions about their necessity. Past shifts from silver to cheaper metals in coinage reflect economic adjustments over time. Lowering interest rates could help mitigate debt burdens more than it would impact the housing market. The U.S. missed opportunities to issue long-term, low-interest debt when rates were near zero. International stocks are outperforming U.S. stocks year-to-date, with emerging market Europe leading at 16.9% gains. The U.S. market is down 2%, marking a rare period of underperformance compared to global markets. Technology stocks are underperforming, with the Nasdaq in correction territory, down over 10%. Healthcare stocks are among the best performers, reflecting a rotation into defensive sectors. Investors are showing a flight to quality, favoring large-cap, dividend-paying companies. Market rotations between value and growth stocks continue as economic concerns persist. Smaller-cap U.S. stocks remain weak, continuing their underperformance. The DAX has quietly posted strong gains of around 10-12% this year, contrasting with the U.S. market’s struggles. Despite current declines, the overall market is still in a relatively stable range, with volatility expected but not severe downturns. Experts anticipate a flat market year with moderate fluctuations rather than extreme moves up or down. Today's Panelists: Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth Phil Weiss | Apprise Wealth Management Follow on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/moneytreepodcast Follow LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/showcase/money-tree-investing-podcast Follow on Twitter/X: https://x.com/MTIPodcast  

Transcribed - Published: 12 March 2025

Gord Neal, CEO of World Copper, joins us to talk about the future of copper! Gord shares his extensive experience and background in mining commodities. He emphasized copper's crucial role in the transition to clean energy, particularly for electric vehicles, power grids, and renewable energy infrastructure. Gord also talks about the potential impact of the new U.S. administration on mining policies, and how regulatory streamlining could accelerate domestic production and strengthen U.S. energy security.  We discuss... Gord Neal, CEO of World Copper, has 25 years of experience in mining, specializing in metals like gold, silver, copper, and uranium. He was a founder of Mag Silver, growing it from a $50M to a $2.5B market cap company, and led New Pacific Metals to a $1.2B valuation. Copper is critical for the transition from fossil fuels to electric energy, as EVs and grid upgrades require significantly more copper than traditional vehicles and infrastructure. The supply of copper is insufficient to meet the demand for 2030 and 2050 energy transition goals, requiring urgent increases in mining output. Nuclear power is essential to meeting global energy needs, as wind and solar alone cannot provide sufficient or reliable power. Copper remains the preferred metal for electrical applications due to its conductivity, durability, and cost-effectiveness compared to alternatives like silver. The global copper deficit is around 100M tons, with new mining projects facing long lead times and high costs. The U.S. needs to accelerate mining permits, particularly in copper-rich states like Arizona, to secure domestic supply. The new Trump administration is expected to push for more mining and energy independence, potentially speeding up federal land permitting. Copper demand is rising due to the shift toward electrification, requiring more wiring for vehicles and energy grids. The U.S. power grid requires significant upgrades to support an electric vehicle transition, necessitating vast amounts of copper. The slow progress in energy grid modernization is due to high costs, bureaucratic red tape, and lack of large-scale energy storage solutions. Political and regulatory challenges impact the speed at which mining projects and energy infrastructure can develop. Today's Panelists: Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth Barbara Friedberg | Barbara Friedberg Personal Finance Phil Weiss | Apprise Wealth Management Follow on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/moneytreepodcast Follow LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/showcase/money-tree-investing-podcast Follow on Twitter/X: https://x.com/MTIPodcast For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/the-future-of-copper-gordan-neal-692   

Transcribed - Published: 7 March 2025

Today we discuss Buffett's final letter as his recent shareholder letter has just released. We talk about Buffett Indicator’s warning of market overvaluation, and Berkshire Hathaway’s rising cash reserves as a sign of potential caution in the markets. We also share on the increasing prevalence of subscription-based business models, frustrations over companies charging both upfront and recurring fees for services and the decline in customer service quality.  We discuss...  Big tech companies like Google have transitioned from offering free services to charging for storage and other features. Some businesses push ineffective customer service to frustrate users into giving up on disputes. AI-driven customer service is currently ineffective but may be the only long-term solution. The Buffett Indicator suggests the stock market is highly overvalued. Berkshire Hathaway’s cash holdings are at their highest level in decades, signaling Buffett's cautious stance. Buffett has been selling off major holdings like Apple and Bank of America. An imminent crash isn't certain, but current valuations suggest a major correction could happen eventually. The new administration brings uncertainties, disruptions, and a mix of good and bad outcomes. Markets remain expensive, even with a potential 30% drop, which would still not bring valuations to historical lows. Unlike past bubbles in tech (2000) and housing (2008), current market conditions do not show excessive leverage or structural financial weaknesses. The markets may stay flat for several years as a form of correction rather than experiencing a sharp crash. Warren Buffett’s long-term strategy emphasizes holding cash to remain opportunistic rather than out of fear. Market volatility is increasing, particularly in crypto, but recent overall movements remain relatively mild. Investors should recognize that percentage declines translate into significant dollar losses as portfolios grow. Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway has maintained strong financial performance, particularly in insurance, despite market challenges. Buffett's past standards for measuring success (10-year rolling average) are no longer being met, raising questions about future performance. While historically successful, Buffett’s recent decisions and investment strategy face growing hurdles. Today's Panelists: Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth Douglas Heagren | ProCollege Planners Follow on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/moneytreepodcast Follow LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/showcase/money-tree-investing-podcast Follow on Twitter/X: https://x.com/MTIPodcast For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/buffetts-final-letter-691   

Transcribed - Published: 5 March 2025

Thomas J. Cryan joins us to discuss his new book Disrupting Taxes. He highlights how tariffs historically served as the primary source of U.S. federal revenue until the Civil War, after which income taxes took over. He criticizes the current tax system for its heavy reliance on individual salaries and argued for a more efficient, technology-driven approach. We also touch on the national debt, the need for a balanced budget, and concerns about government spending. Thomas advocates for a system that automatically adjusts tax rates to match expenditures.  We discuss... Thomas J. Cryan shares his background as a writer, attorney, and entrepreneur with a focus on law and economics. Cryan discusses his book Disrupting Taxes, inspired by the upcoming expiration of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act in 2025. The conversation shifts to the historical role of tariffs, particularly how they funded the U.S. government for its first 70 years. The current tax system disproportionately burdens individuals, with 90% of federal revenue coming from salaries and income. Cryan critiques the self-declaratory nature of income tax, arguing it leads to inefficiencies and inequities. He proposes a 1% automated banking transaction tax to replace income tax and eliminate the IRS. This system would tax all banking transactions equally, spreading the burden more fairly across the economy. A proposed tax system would implement a flat 2% transaction tax, significantly lower than current income tax rates. Government transactions would also be taxed, eliminating loopholes and ensuring transparency in spending versus tax collection. While the system removes the IRS in its current form, some technological oversight would still be needed for enforcement. Low tax rates could discourage avoidance, as the effort to evade 1% taxation may not be worth the hassle. The U.S. tax system must consider global competition to remain economically viable. Tariffs can be an economic tool but may create global trade imbalances and diplomatic tensions. A technology-driven transaction tax system could increase efficiency and fairness over time. Free market principles suggest that supply and demand will eventually create equilibrium despite policy shifts. State and local governments operate under different tax systems, creating challenges in integrating federal tax changes. Broadening the tax base at all levels could lead to lower rates and a fairer system overall. States with high income taxes may consider adopting transaction-based taxation models. For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/disrupting-taxes-thomas-j-cryan-690  Today's Panelists: Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth Barbara Friedberg | Barbara Friedberg Personal Finance Jeff Hulett | Finance Revamp Follow on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/moneytreepodcast Follow LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/showcase/money-tree-investing-podcast Follow on Twitter/X: https://x.com/MTIPodcast  

Transcribed - Published: 28 February 2025

There have been some extreme overvaluations in this market and we are here to discuss them! Today we take a deep dive on market valuations and the relativity of valuation metrics, making sure you avoid the simplistic comparisons. We also examine market sentiment, noting the unusual dynamic of bearish sentiment despite record highs, and highlighted risks such as market concentration in major tech firms and declining free cash flows. We also talk about whether AI investments are currently yielding meaningful returns and exploring the broader implications for equity markets.  We discuss: The stock market valuations and their relative meaning. How comparing valuation metrics across different companies and countries requires careful consideration. High-growth companies can justify higher price-to-earnings (PE) ratios. Misusing metrics or using the wrong comparisons can lead to poor investment decisions. Market sentiment is currently bearish despite record-high stock prices. Diversification and risk management strategies can help investors navigate uncertainty. Some analysts question whether AI investments are currently yielding profitable returns. Free cash flow declines across the S&P 500 could impact market stability. US market resilience and innovation could still provide competitive investment opportunities despite global shifts. Potential policy changes could pressure the US dollar and influence international economic positioning. High valuations, market concentration, and potential free cash flow challenges suggest investors should exercise caution. Historic S&P 500 returns have been inconsistent, with long-term averages fluctuating significantly over different time periods. Omission of key historical data, such as the 1980s in certain charts, highlights potential biases in market analysis. Investors should focus on diversification, liquidity, and value-driven strategies to navigate potential market corrections. The S&P 500 is currently 72% above its long-term trend line, a historically high level. Market history suggests a strong correlation between extreme overvaluation and major pullbacks. Many investors make emotional decisions rather than objectively adapting to new data. Legendary investors like Warren Buffett hold cash and wait for market corrections to deploy capital. Market sentiment is highly bearish, but history shows markets can stay irrational longer than expected. Avoiding the worst market days has historically been more impactful than catching the best ones.   For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/extreme-overvaluations-689  Today's Panelists: Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth Douglas Heagren | ProCollege Planners Follow on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/moneytreepodcast Follow LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/showcase/money-tree-investing-podcast Follow on Twitter/X: https://x.com/MTIPodcast  

Transcribed - Published: 26 February 2025

Charles Goodwin is here to talk about how to broaden your investment portfolio with fix and flip real estate. Charles discusses how he transitioned into real estate investing and acquired around 50 single-family homes. He shares insights on the current real estate market, skepticism about lower rates, and predicts a slow grind towards affordability.  Today we discuss... Charles Goodwin shares his background in finance, tech sales, and real estate lending, now serving as VP of Sales overseeing $6.5 billion in loan origination. He started investing in real estate after seeing family success and recognizing its potential as a wealth-building tool. The real estate market remains highly unaffordable, and Charles expects a slow grind with flat prices due to interest rates and supply constraints. The "lock-in effect" has kept inventory tight, as homeowners hesitate to sell and trade low mortgage rates for higher ones. Without a major economic event, he expects home sales to recover slowly over a five-year period rather than a quick turnaround. Mortgage rates remain high, driven by inflation expectations and bond market movements, with no return to 3-4% rates likely. The bond market's recent divergence from Fed policy shows that long-term rates can rise despite Fed cuts, affecting mortgage affordability. Fix-and-flip and rehab opportunities vary by region, with stronger markets in the Midwest and Sunbelt states, while Florida and Texas face challenges. Midwest markets like Cincinnati and Indianapolis offer better affordability, making them attractive for both flipping and rentals. Private lending has gained traction as banks and credit unions have pulled back, fueling continued investor activity. Charles remains cautiously optimistic, emphasizing that real estate cycles take time and affordability is the key factor shaping future trends. For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/fix-and-flip-real-estate-charles-goodwin-688  Today's Panelists: Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth Barbara Friedberg | Barbara Friedberg Personal Finance Phil Weiss | Apprise Wealth Management   Follow on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/moneytreepodcast Follow LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/showcase/money-tree-investing-podcast Follow on Twitter/X: https://x.com/MTIPodcast    

Transcribed - Published: 21 February 2025

The Mar-a-Lago Accord could shake up the world economy. We also chat about resource efficiency, economic trends, geopolitical shifts, and the evolving global financial landscape. The Mar-a-Lago Accord, while still speculative, could reshape global markets, reinforcing the U.S.'s role in international finance and policy. Today we discuss... The high costs and artificial inflation surrounding Valentine's Day purchases. Wastefulness in modern consumerism, including the disposal of returned goods by major retailers. 3D printing as a less wasteful manufacturing process and its potential future applications. Future trends in housing, particularly the shift towards smaller, more efficient homes. How real estate may adapt to generational preferences and economic shifts. A deep dive into the rumored "Mar-a-Lago Accord" and its potential impact on world economics. The Mar-a-Lago Accord includes three key elements: tariffs, a sovereign wealth fund, and a restructured security agreement. Tariffs serve as leverage in international negotiations and a means of raising government revenue. There are concerns about government involvement in private businesses through mechanisms like tax credits in exchange for equity. Countries refusing the debt swap or security commitments could face tariffs as retaliation. The restructuring plan could reduce U.S. debt, offset obligations through government-owned assets, and reshape global financial policies. Forced foreign investment in U.S. debt could strengthen American geopolitical influence. There will inevitably be economic "losers" in the process, though proponents argue everyday Americans would benefit. The Trump administration's approach is praised as innovative and disruptive, challenging the traditional financial system. The U.S. dollar has remained historically strong, posing challenges for exports and contributing to debt issues. The Mar-a-Lago Accord is seen as an attempt at economic reform but carries risks similar to past strategies. Generational shifts in political leadership are suggested, with a call for younger leaders to replace aging politicians. Social Security is highlighted as an outdated system that needs reform, particularly regarding taxation of benefits. The Mar-a-Lago Accord is seen as a potential path to balancing the budget by restructuring debt and reducing interest payments. Market valuations remain high with uncertainty about future economic policies, leading to cautious optimism.   Today's Panelists: Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth Douglas Heagren | ProCollege Planners Follow on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/moneytreepodcast For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/mar-a-lago-accord  Follow LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/showcase/money-tree-investing-podcast Follow on Twitter/X: https://x.com/MTIPodcast  

Transcribed - Published: 19 February 2025

Graham Day joins us to talk about the best EFT diversification you can have in your investment portfolio. Graham shares his experience in the ETF world, from his start at PowerShares in 2008 to co-founding Innovator ETFs in 2017. Innovator introduced defined outcome ETFs, giving investors structured returns with protection against losses that were once only for the rich or through pricey products. They developed buffer ETFs, which limit potential gains but provide set protection against downturns, helping manage risk while keeping investments easy to sell and tax-friendly. The conversation looks at how these ETFs stack up against traditional financial products, their use in managing investment portfolios, and more. Today we discuss... Graham Day shares his background in ETFs, starting at PowerShares and later co-founding Innovator. Innovator aims to make structured investment strategies more accessible through ETFs. Defined outcome ETFs provide equity market exposure with downside protection. Buffer ETFs rebalance annually without creating taxable events. Innovator also offers accelerated ETFs, which provide leveraged upside with downside limits. Simplicity is key—structured products are often complex and difficult for advisors and clients to understand. Innovator ETFs aim to provide strategic, risk-managed solutions that fit into modern portfolios. Many advisors have used buffer ETFs as a bond alternative due to known downside protection. Buffer ETFs performed well compared to both bonds and stocks in recent years. Active management underperforms long-term, with 95% of managers lagging the S&P 500 over a decade. Investors often underperform the market due to poor timing and emotional decision-making. Buffer ETFs help investors stay invested by reducing the fear of market downturns. Some investors allocate 20-25% of portfolios to buffer ETFs for meaningful impact. Market predictions are unreliable, making defined-outcome strategies appealing. Innovator aims to provide certainty in an uncertain investing environment. For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/best-eft-diversification-graham-day-686  Today's Panelists: Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth Barbara Friedberg | Barbara Friedberg Personal Finance Phil Weiss | Apprise Wealth Management   Follow on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/moneytreepodcast Follow LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/showcase/money-tree-investing-podcast Follow on Twitter/X: https://x.com/MTIPodcast  

Transcribed - Published: 14 February 2025

There a problem with the post election tariffs! Today we talk about all the breaking political developments following Trump's election, his rapid use of executive orders and his quick use of tariffs. We have cautious optimism about some policies, but there is still always potential risks, with inflation and interest rates. We also challenge the common belief that homeownership is always an investment. Maybe there's something else that works for you.  Today we discuss... How Trump's election has led to rapid political changes, with new developments emerging daily. Media on both sides is seen as biased, and people should think critically instead of relying on propaganda. The speaker is cautiously optimistic about Trump's direction, particularly regarding the economy. Some of Trump’s policies, like lowering interest rates and tariffs, could contribute to inflation. A discussion on real estate framed a home as a personal expense rather than an investment, challenging common narratives. High property prices in some areas make renting more financially sound than buying, contrary to common beliefs. Cutting government spending, a key Trump priority, could have significant economic impacts, especially in Washington, D.C. Not investing in D.C. real estate due to potential government downsizing. High housing costs are forcing younger buyers to relocate farther from cities. Changing living patterns, similar to COVID-era shifts, are reshaping communities and work arrangements. Remote work continues to impact commercial real estate as people settle into new locations. Many Americans now struggle to afford a mortgage on a standard 9-to-5 job. Housing affordability varies widely, with some states requiring nearly a full month's wages just for mortgage payments. Burnout is highest in industries involving manual labor and customer service, with healthcare being particularly affected. Economic frustration is driving shifts in political sentiment, as many voters seek disruption to the status quo. Global markets are performing well despite U.S. concerns, with China and Europe showing strong gains. Diversification remains key for investors, as even experienced professionals struggle to consistently pick winners. The top 1% of Americans now control 30.8% of total U.S. net worth, up from 22.8% in 1989. A recent poll shows mixed opinions on tariffs, with 47% supporting them to some degree and 53% opposing or unsure. Cautious optimism is warranted, but assuming another major rally this year could be unrealistic. For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/post-election-tariffs-685    Today's Panelists: Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth Douglas Heagren | ProCollege Planners Follow on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/moneytreepodcast Follow LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/showcase/money-tree-investing-podcast Follow on Twitter/X: https://x.com/MTIPodcast  

Transcribed - Published: 12 February 2025

Today we talk The Soul of Wealth with Daniel Crosby, a behavior finance expert. Daniel shares his transition from clinical psychology to Wall Street due to burnout and his realization that finance is deeply rooted in human behavior. Highlighting the PERMA model from positive psychology, he emphasizes that true well-being requires balancing positive experiences, meaningful work, relationships, purpose, and personal growth—rather than just financial success. Daniel discussed how there has been a shift financial behavior, with younger generations prioritizing values-driven investing over pure profit. Join us as we discuss how to have a more fulfilling financial life! Today we discuss...  Daniel Crosby shares his background as a clinical psychologist who transitioned into behavioral finance. Behavioral finance is central to investing, shaping individual and institutional decisions. How people often optimize for material success (positive experiences) at the expense of deeper fulfillment. The PERMA model, a framework for well-being that balances pleasure, engagement, relationships, meaning, and achievement. How Wall Street culture can lead to extreme work habits, burnout, and misplaced priorities. Crosby emphasizes the importance of integrating life balance early, rather than delaying happiness for financial success. The role of money in social change, noting that financial tools have historically driven major civil rights movements. The Montgomery Bus Boycott, sparked by Rosa Parks, demonstrated the power of financial pressure in the civil rights movement. Younger generations increasingly recognize that spending money is a form of voting for the world they want to live in. Gen X is often overlooked politically, partly because they tend to be cynical and disengaged from politics. Financial decisions can be more powerful than political votes, as they influence the economy and corporate behavior daily. Consumer spending decisions significantly impact businesses and shape the economy more directly than stock market trades. Retirees often conflate net worth with self-worth, making it hard to enjoy their savings. The balance between saving for the future and enjoying the present is a major financial conflict in relationships. People tend to judge others based on their spending habits, viewing savers as dull and spenders as reckless. Life offers no guarantees, so financial strategies should include both prudent saving and meaningful spending. Overcoming personal financial biases requires studying market history and maintaining a long-term perspective. For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/the-soul-of-wealth-daniel-crosby-684  Today's Panelists: Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth Barbara Friedberg | Barbara Friedberg Personal Finance Phil Weiss | Apprise Wealth Management   Follow on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/moneytreepodcast Follow LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/showcase/money-tree-investing-podcast Follow on Twitter/X: https://x.com/MTIPodcast  

Transcribed - Published: 7 February 2025

With all of the new Senate confirmations and executive orders from the past week, the 2025 stock market predictions continue! We explore how higher interest rates make borrowing more expensive and how a strong dollar challenges multinational corporations by making U.S. goods more expensive abroad. Rising oil prices further strain businesses by increasing transportation and production costs. Despite these fundamental factors, the market often disregards traditional economic signals, making price the ultimate determinant of value. Today we discuss... The week's news cycle was dominated by Trump's executive orders and political theater in Senate confirmations. Senators grilling Kennedy on vaccine policies were top recipients of pharmaceutical industry donations. Stanley Druckenmiller outlined three major risks to markets: rising interest rates, a strong dollar, and rising oil prices. Before Trump took office, all three risk factors were in play, but they have since moderated. Higher interest rates increase borrowing costs and lower corporate profits, especially for debt-reliant industries. Tech companies have used low-interest debt for stock buybacks, artificially boosting valuations. A strong U.S. dollar negatively impacts multinational corporations by making exports more expensive. Emerging markets struggle with dollar-denominated debt when the U.S. dollar strengthens. The market doesn’t care about your opinion and can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent. Even if you're ultimately right, being wrong for 20 years still means you were wrong in practice. The best investors acknowledge when the market disagrees with them and pivot accordingly. Most people lack familiarity with risk management beyond simply buying bonds. The largest oil reserves aren’t necessarily the most valuable due to quality differences in crude. Corporate cycles alternate between aggressive acquisitions and strategic spinoffs. Investment return data gets distorted over time as underperforming funds disappear. The extravagant corporate culture at Nabisco before and after the buyout. Cultural shifts, like the rise of the iPhone, have happened rapidly in recent years. The housing market is in a challenging state due to high interest rates and low supply.   Today's Panelists: Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth Phil Weiss | Apprise Wealth Management Follow on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/moneytreepodcast Follow LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/showcase/money-tree-investing-podcast Follow on Twitter/X: https://x.com/MTIPodcast For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/2025-predictions-continue-683  

Transcribed - Published: 5 February 2025

Joe Kelly shares how he is unchaining the block chain through his company Unchained. He shares his entrepreneurial journey and insights on Bitcoin and its evolving role in finance. He detailed Unchained's services, which cater to long-term Bitcoin holders by addressing security, inheritance, IRAs, and financial tools like trading and lending. We talk Bitcoin's pivotal developments, including the approval of ETFs, institutional support, and the potential for a U.S. strategic Bitcoin reserve. We also explore mining economics and the broader industry's role in cementing Bitcoin as a foundational digital commodity.  Today we discuss...  Joe Kelly's entrepreneurial journey from Alaska to Texas, emphasizing his early inspiration from Bitcoin. The importance of Bitcoin's shift to ETFs, noting the role of institutional players like Fidelity and BlackRock in mainstream adoption. The potential of a U.S. strategic Bitcoin reserve signals Bitcoin’s growing recognition as a critical, limited-supply asset. Bitcoin itself is virtually hack-proof, with vulnerabilities usually tied to key management or exchange-level breaches. Mining, while lucrative, is contrasted with direct Bitcoin investment, with the latter often yielding higher returns over time. There is a tradeoff between directly buying Bitcoin, which may influence its price upward, and the challenges of operating a mining business. Michael Saylor's Bitcoin strategy involves leveraging MicroStrategy's treasury to buy Bitcoin, funded through loans, convertible bonds, and equity dilution. The model has parallels to Ponzi-like structures, though it lacks the "rug pull" mechanics since the risks are transparent and tied to Bitcoin's performance. Bitcoin's value proposition hinges on its limited supply of 21 million coins, creating a perception of scarcity and long-term potential. Investors must approach Bitcoin with a balanced mindset, acknowledging both its potential for high returns and the risk of total loss. Bitcoin's volatility often causes steep downturns, which can challenge investors unprepared for long-term holding. Bitcoin's core utility lies in its robustness as a secure, scarce, and decentralized store of value. Emerging use cases from Bitcoin-related technologies include identity verification and fraud prevention, though these are indirect benefits. For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/unchaining-the-block-chain-joe-kelly-682  Today's Panelists: Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth Barbara Friedberg | Barbara Friedberg Personal Finance Follow on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/moneytreepodcast Follow LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/showcase/money-tree-investing-podcast Follow on Twitter/X: https://x.com/MTIPodcast  

Transcribed - Published: 31 January 2025

Today we ask a burning question: is Donald Trump inflationary? We dive into the economic implications of Trump's policies, emphasizing their inflationary and deflationary effects. These measures could impact GDP, unemployment, wages, and inflation. We also explore the challenges of rising costs in basic necessities like food, transportation, and utilities, alongside broader concerns about the stock market's bullishness, potential corrections, and the need for sustainable economic growth. We also talk the commodity trends like coffee and the stock market's relationship to the Chinese calendar.  We discuss... Trump's proposed policies—tax cuts, tariffs, government spending cuts, and border closures. Tax cuts and tariffs are inflationary, with tariffs passing costs to consumers and raising the price of goods. Border closures may increase food and low-wage labor costs, adding further inflationary pressure. Federal Reserve policy, including recent rate cuts, adds inflationary pressures, but further interest rate hikes may be necessary to control it. Essentials like car insurance, gas, and rent have significantly outpaced reported CPI inflation rates, putting pressure on everyday budgets. Addressing long-term inflation may require sustained economic growth, though achieving this remains a significant challenge. Inflation is impacting both dining out and eating at home, with rising costs creating financial challenges for consumers and restaurants alike. Billionaires prioritize keeping money in appreciating assets, contrasting with the "millionaire next door" approach of debt elimination. Trump coins and similar meme coins illustrate the rise of community-based cryptocurrencies, driven more by social networks than inherent value. Distrust in media, political institutions, and "gatekeepers of truth" underscores a growing reliance on decentralized, market-driven decision-making. Free markets naturally balance supply and demand, with pricing mechanisms reflecting societal values and priorities. Widespread skepticism of information sources reflects a societal shift toward questioning traditional authorities and media. Policies against nuclear energy inadvertently push reliance on coal to fill energy gaps, undermining efforts for a cleaner planet. The high cost of living in many U.S. states underscores the need for affordable energy to alleviate economic pressures on households. Economic inequalities persist, with credit card defaults rising and inflation impacting household spending, particularly in transportation, housing, and food.   Today's Panelists: Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth Douglas Heagren | ProCollege Planners Follow on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/moneytreepodcast Follow LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/showcase/money-tree-investing-podcast Follow on Twitter/X: https://x.com/MTIPodcast For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/is-donald-trump-inflationary-681 

Transcribed - Published: 29 January 2025

Eric Crittenden is here to share the investing strategies for all weather! No matter what the situation is, you should be prepared to invest your money wisely. Eric shares insights on blending equities, bonds, and systematic global macro strategies like trend-following to navigate volatile markets, emphasizing the importance of managing downside risk and incorporating uncorrelated assets. We also reflect on macroeconomic trends, and compare today’s inflationary pressures to the 1970s, expressing skepticism about inflation being fully contained and stressing the value of systematic investing over reliance on media narratives or short-term predictions. Today we discuss... Eric Crittenden, CIO at Standpoint Asset Management, specializes in "all-weather investing," combining hedge fund styles and traditional assets for stable returns in all market conditions. Eric's career began after transitioning from meteorology and public health studies to finance, spurred by a fascination with dynamic systems and risk management. He highlights the importance of managing downside risk and diversification, especially during challenging periods like the stagflation of the 1970s. Crittenden cautions against high-fee hedge fund structures, advocating for in-house, low-cost implementation of trend-following strategies. Gold, short-term fixed income, and systematic macro strategies are recommended for navigating inflationary and stagflationary periods. Rather than relying on narratives, Crittenden employs a systematic, data-focused method to identify global trends using daily updates from international futures exchanges. Current economic conditions are compared to historical eras like the 1970s, the Great Depression, and early 2000s, predicting major challenges in the next 10–15 years. Inflation could resurface due to supply chain disruptions, reindustrialization, or unexpected events rather than monetary policy alone. Decoupling from China and reindustrialization in North America are significant but costly, long-term efforts requiring high capital expenditure. Predicting economic shifts remains challenging as market shocks often come from unforeseen factors. Reindustrialization and reshoring initiatives face efficiency and scale challenges, particularly when transitioning manufacturing from China to smaller nations like Mexico or Vietnam. The U.S. benefits from unparalleled geographic advantages, which foster economic resilience and attract global talent. Technological shifts like AI and crypto are reminiscent of the early internet, with a mix of revolutionary potential and speculative overreach. Governments may challenge crypto through taxation or legal constraints, highlighting the importance of considering geopolitical risks in such investments. Long-term capital stewardship prioritizes sustainable growth, stability, and client trust over speculative gains or first-mover risks. For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/investing-strategies-eric-crittenden-680

Transcribed - Published: 24 January 2025

The two handed economist has a surprise prediction! Today we cover a wide range of topics such as market movements and our perceptions of the current economic and political climate. We talk our current leadership, particularly criticizing Gavin Newsom's handling of California's challenges, including wildfires and insurance issues. We also talk economic frameworks, including the effects of inflation and deflation on purchasing power. Today we discuss...  The growing popularity of pickleball and its origins, along with its appeal to older demographics. Effective leadership styles by referencing Steve Jobs and Joe Rogan as examples of accountability. The systemic issues with inflation, focusing on how purchasing power declines over time due to currency devaluation. Bitcoin, gold, and real estate to illustrate inflationary trends and their impact on perceived asset values. Encouraging viewers to adopt a long-term perspective on financial decisions, taking into account the erosion of currency value. The Federal Reserve's policies aim to reduce volatility, making economic decision-making easier, albeit at the cost of consistent inflation eroding purchasing power. Cash outperforms in market crashes as its purchasing power increases, enabling investors to acquire discounted assets. The current market, based on metrics like the Schiller CAPE ratio, remains historically overvalued, raising caution for future corrections. Even if the market drops by half, it would still be expensive, suggesting a significant correction is required for reasonable valuations. A large flow of money into indexes has contributed to elevated valuations, pushing prices higher even beyond practical expectations. Since a significant amount of money continues to flow into the market each year, it's difficult to predict when a true market collapse might happen. The current market behavior shows that it could rise even further than expected, despite economic uncertainty. Even in extreme scenarios like COVID, when the global economy shut down, the market showed resilience, defying expectations of a larger crash. For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/surprise-prediction-679  Today's Panelists: Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth Douglas Heagren | Pro College Planners Follow on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/moneytreepodcast Follow LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/showcase/money-tree-investing-podcast Follow on Twitter/X: https://x.com/MTIPodcast  

Transcribed - Published: 22 January 2025

Renan Devillieres discusses the currect techological revolution in manufacturing! This revolution is caused by geopolitical shifts and technological advancements, but also brings the challenges of decoupling from China, the pressing need for new factories and energy infrastructure, and the trade-offs of reshoring and more! Renan also shared insights into the role of AI-powered tools, autonomous roots, and emerging materials in shaping modern manufacturing. Today we discuss...  Manufacturing is undergoing an unprecedented pace of change due to aging populations, geopolitical tensions, and technological advances. Decoupling from China is driving a reshoring trend in the West, with significant investments in factories and supply chains. Energy infrastructure is a critical bottleneck, with advancements in small nuclear reactors and decentralized grids emerging as key solutions. The shift toward high-utilization products, like self-driving cars and multifunctional smartphones, is reshaping manufacturing priorities. Reshoring and decoupling come with trade-offs, including inflation and societal adjustments, as countries aim for self-sufficiency. AI and manufacturing depend heavily on energy availability, with Silicon Valley now embracing nuclear power as a vital resource. Simulation software enables precise virtual modeling of production processes, reducing reliance on physical tests. Advancements in 3D printing improve resolution and applications, but material limitations prevent it from replacing traditional manufacturing processes. Talent shortages, particularly in mechanical engineering and manufacturing expertise, hinder progress in industrial innovation. Rebuilding localized supply chains, such as Tesla's vertical integration, is essential for reducing reliance on international dependencies. Bridging the gap between R&D and production in pharmaceuticals could drastically reduce costs and timelines. Healthier food systems face challenges from industrialized production, affordability concerns, and systemic quality issues. Consumer demand for healthier food is gradually increasing, signaling potential shifts in market dynamics. The food sector’s transformation may be catalyzed by breakthroughs, scandals, or evolving consumer preferences. For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/technological-revolution-in-manufacturing-renan-devillieres-678  Today's Panelists: Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth Barbara Friedberg | Barbara Friedberg Personal Finance Follow on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/moneytreepodcast Follow LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/showcase/money-tree-investing-podcast Follow on Twitter/X: https://x.com/MTIPodcast  

Transcribed - Published: 17 January 2025

Ready for inflation predictions? We discuss the places inflation could strike again in 2025. We also talk economic trends, inflationary patterns, and government spending's role in the economy. We also share the policy implications under different administrations, and how they will impact us going forward. Today we discuss... Reflection on broader U.S. economic issues, such as government spending and budgetary challenges. Analysis of past inflation cycles and comparisons to current monetary policy efforts. Speculation on future economic strategies and challenges in addressing discretionary spending. Younger generations often assume they won't receive Social Security benefits due to government mismanagement and financial instability. Reducing government spending could have deflationary effects by removing a significant portion of GDP, potentially causing recessions. Tax cuts are generally inflationary as they increase disposable income, but public dissatisfaction with perceived government waste limits willingness to pay higher taxes. Immigration impacts economic growth by providing cheap labor, but eliminating low-wage workers could lead to higher food costs and inflation. Energy abundance, particularly through nuclear power, is highlighted as a critical factor for economic growth and poverty alleviation. Analysts remain cautious about the economy's direction, advocating for managed investment risk and avoiding "all-in" strategies amidst uncertainty. Nuclear energy is resisted due to public concerns (e.g., NIMBY sentiment) despite its potential as a clean energy source. Rising energy costs directly impact household budgets, inflating expenses for housing, insurance, and transportation. Economic inflation has made $100,000—a salary once considered wealthy—barely sufficient to meet the average American household's annual expenses. Housing affordability challenges persist as property taxes and insurance costs outpace wages, undermining traditional financial planning strategies. Perceptions of climate change vary widely, with debates centering on human versus natural causes and the effectiveness of governmental policies. Conspiracy theories about disasters like wildfires gain traction amid frustrations with government responses and insurance industry practices. A significant portion of U.S. income inequality debates focus on the disparity between being "rich" (high income) versus "wealthy" (high net worth). For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/inflation-predictions-677    Today's Panelists: Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth Douglas Heagren | ProCollege Planners Follow on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/moneytreepodcast Follow LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/showcase/money-tree-investing-podcast Follow on Twitter/X: https://x.com/MTIPodcast  

Transcribed - Published: 15 January 2025

Economist Bob Frick joins us to talk about how the housing crisis and inflation and how they have become barriers to the American Dream. Bob draws from his unique background as a financial journalist and behavioral economist to address topics such as labor market dynamics, credit card debt, and more. Bob emphasizes the critical shortage of housing and potential economic impacts of policy changes, and their possible inflationary effects. We also talk about the interplay between economic growth, housing supply, and affordability.  We discuss...  Bob Frick shares his background as a financial journalist and behavioral economist, focusing on consumer issues like housing, cars, loans, and credit cards. Potential inflationary effects of policy changes, including tariffs, deportations, and reductions in legal immigration. Wage inflation, which has risen since the pandemic but struggles to outpace the cumulative effects of high inflation. Credit card debt trends, including rising balances and late payments, with potential stabilization observed in recent months. The lack of affordable starter homes, with rising median homeownership ages and unaffordable prices for younger buyers. How post-COVID low mortgage rates drove demand, compounding pre-existing housing shortages and resulting in skyrocketing home prices. Current housing market sales are only a quarter of pre-COVID levels, reflecting affordability and inventory issues. Low-interest mortgage rates from previous years contribute to a "lock-in" effect, discouraging homeowners from moving. Builders and flippers have reduced activity, with fewer properties meeting profitability thresholds. Inflation and rising mortgage rates exacerbate affordability challenges, especially for lower-income households. Labor market conditions remain strong but are often misinterpreted due to volatile reporting and outdated measurement methods. Economic forecasts are inherently unreliable, influenced by cognitive biases and behavioral tendencies toward belief in prediction. For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/housing-crisis-and-inflation-bob-frick-676  Today's Panelists: Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth Barbara Friedberg | Barbara Friedberg Personal Finance Phil Weiss | Apprise Wealth Management Follow on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/moneytreepodcast Follow LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/showcase/money-tree-investing-podcast Follow on Twitter/X: https://x.com/MTIPodcast  

Transcribed - Published: 10 January 2025

Get ready to invest because today we have your 2025 stock market predictions! Today we talk about how market predictions are typically futile due to the unpredictable nature of financial markets. We explore the trends of 2024, including the standout performers like Nvidia and Bitcoin, but don't assume that means they'll be the winners this year. We also talk active vs. passive management and investing strategies while addressing systemic issues in modern financial markets. Today we discuss...  Annual tradition of financial predictions, and their inherent uncertainty. Recap of 2024's top-performing stocks and commodities, as well as the underperformers. Discussion on the pitfalls of market predictions and human tendencies to forecast the future. Critique of over-reliance on index investing and its long-term implications for market efficiency and corporate accountability. Free markets are beneficial but pose dangers to those unprepared, with current markets heavily influenced by Federal Reserve interventions. The stock market is bolstered by government actions and large institutional players, creating artificial market stability. Warren Buffett’s underperformance in recent decades is attributed to deviating from his investment principles and managing too much capital. Global markets show mixed trends: Japan is recovering after a long bear market, while European and value stocks remain stagnant. Crypto adoption is growing, supported by corporate treasury strategies, with Bitcoin gaining popularity despite speculative concerns. Meme coins and other speculative assets occasionally deliver massive returns, but their long-term viability remains uncertain. Cryptocurrency markets showed extreme volatility, with some coins seeing significant gains since the election, while others exhibit questionable valuations. Oil prices have rebounded after a lackluster start to the year, with late-year momentum contributing to recent gains. The S&P 500 has grown modestly by 3% since the election, while gold prices have declined by 3.9%. Risks to global markets in 2025 include tariffs, Nvidia earnings volatility, a reaccelerating U.S. economy, and persistent inflation concerns. Predictions for U.S. recession in 2025 are mixed, with some indicators suggesting low probability despite ongoing uncertainties. The 2025 market landscape will likely feature conflicting bullish and bearish indicators, complicating clear directional forecasts. A recurring theme emerged: there are no inherently good or bad stocks, only good or bad prices depending on market conditions. Disclaimers emphasized that past performance of assets should not be interpreted as predictions for future results.   For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/stock-market-predictions-675    Today's Panelists: Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth Douglas Heagren | ProCollege Planners Follow on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/moneytreepodcast Follow LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/showcase/money-tree-investing-podcast Follow on Twitter/X: https://x.com/MTIPodcast  

Transcribed - Published: 8 January 2025

We are joined by one of my favorite authors Charles Duhigg to discuss his new book, Supercommunicators! We also jump around to chat about other topics like the role of crypto in politics, broader technology trends and AI, and challenges in private equity. Listen to learn more about how you can be the best communicator through having a strong connection. Today we discuss...  Charles Duhigg's new book, Super Communicators, and reflects on his earlier works, The Power of Habit and Smarter Faster Better. Charles' background as a business journalist covering finance and technology for The New Yorker and his previous experiences at The New York Times and Harvard Business School. A recent article about Silicon Valley’s and the crypto industry's political influence. The debate over crypto regulations, contrasting the SEC's push for securities oversight with the industry's argument for recognition as commodities. Long-term changes in business and daily computing due to AI. Private equity and the impact of high interest rates, the overabundance of funds, and the potential for a reckoning in the industry. Historical trends in financial products that offered high yields, such as mortgage-backed securities, SPACs, and crypto lending. Examples of creative financial models like lending gold to jewelers and crypto lending, with an analysis of regulatory challenges and risks. Introduction to the book Supercommunicators, focusing on the skills and principles of effective communication. Explanation of the concept of "matching conversations" to foster trust and understanding in communication. Stories of individuals who overcame communication challenges to become skilled influencers, emphasizing learned rather than innate abilities. Strategies for improving communication through empathy, alignment, and intentional practice. Deep questions allow people to share personal stories, creating a shared sense of understanding and vulnerability. Authentic listening enhances trust and alignment between conversational partners, especially in emotionally charged or conflict discussions. Salespeople and professionals often falter by failing to genuinely engage, focusing instead on their own agenda. Successfully navigating conversations involves identifying their type, aligning with the speaker's mindset, and transitioning between types collaboratively. For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/supercommunicators-charles-duhigg-674  Today's Panelists: Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth Barbara Friedberg | Barbara Friedberg Personal Finance Phil Weiss | Apprise Wealth Management   Follow on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/moneytreepodcast Follow LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/showcase/money-tree-investing-podcast Follow on Twitter/X: https://x.com/MTIPodcast  

Transcribed - Published: 3 January 2025

2024 is over so we're going to share a 2024 wrap up! We explore reflections on the holiday season and its implications for financial markets. We share some touching on lighthearted holiday moments. And we also talk some broader topics such as the role of resilience in success and more! Join us as we wrap up 2024. Today we discuss...  Low trading volume during the holidays is an opportunity to find potential deals, though the speaker suggests this may not be worth pursuing for most. The annual "best year ever" planning process, focusing on setting clear, intentional goals and narrowing down focus to a single word or goal for the year. A lesson from Jensen Huang, CEO of Nvidia, stressing the importance of pain and suffering in building resilience and character. 2025 could be a rough year, urging reflection and resilience as part of the process of preparing for the challenges ahead. The steady rise in the average age of parents at birth, which correlates with broader economic trends, including rising dual-income households. The challenges of wage growth compared to the rising costs of living, and how it's harder to keep up financially. The divergence between real wages of good-producing workers and major sector productivity. Whether job market softness is causative or correlational, with significant revisions indicating weaker-than-expected job numbers. Housing costs are rising, but 52% of newly constructed apartments in Q2 of 2024 were rented within three months, which is down significantly from 2021. The cost of buying a home is now higher compared to renting in many cases, yet new apartments are not renting out quickly. A rise in homelessness by 18% in the past year, reflecting growing social strain. Market trends, including the disparity between intraday and overnight trading, highlight inefficiencies in market timing. A nod to Bob Farrell's "10 rules for the stock market," emphasizing the cyclical nature of markets and the dominance of sentiment over fundamentals. Emotions often drive investments, and people are drawn to trends like cryptocurrency, regardless of logical fundamentals. Cryptocurrency's rise defies fundamental analysis and is driven by factors beyond traditional market metrics. Successful investing requires understanding both fundamentals and technical analysis, with the latter helping to determine optimal entry points. A trading journal can help track investments, reasons for purchasing, and exit strategies to avoid emotional decision-making. Uncertainty in the market should be managed through thoughtful strategy reviews. For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/2024-wrap-up-673 Today's Panelists: Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth Douglas Heagren | ProCollege Planners Follow on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/moneytreepodcast Follow LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/showcase/money-tree-investing-podcast Follow on Twitter/X: https://x.com/MTIPodcast  

Transcribed - Published: 1 January 2025

Steve Foerster, a finance professor and investment historian, to talk his latest book, Trailblazers, Heroes and Crooks: Stories to Make You a Smarter Investor. Steve shared insights into famous financial scandals, such as Bernie Madoff's Ponzi scheme, the Bre-X gold mining fraud, and the Salad Oil Swindle that almost toppled American Express. He highlighted key lessons from these events, including the importance of skepticism, recognizing red flags, and understanding how fraudsters exploit exclusivity and credibility to deceive. These historical stories underscore timeless lessons in vigilance and sound investment practices. Today we discuss... Steve Foerster, professor of finance and investment historian, discussed his background and books, including Trailblazers, Heroes, and Crooks and his work on the biography of Nobel Laureate Bill Sharpe. The psychology of exclusivity and trust in Madoff's scheme, including his reputation as NASDAQ chairman. The Bre-X mining scandal of the 1990s, detailing fraudulent gold sample salting, conspiracy theories surrounding Mike De Guzman, and the challenges of evaluating mining investments. Mark Twain's observation on mining, "a hole in the ground with a liar on top," was used to underscore skepticism in speculative industries. The 1960s Salad Oil Swindle, focusing on Tino De Angelis' fraudulent practices and their near-collapse of American Express. Buffett's significant investment in American Express, based on its strong reputation despite the scandal, resulted in a two-and-a-half-fold return within 18 months. Research and perseverance can lead to great returns, as Wall Street tends to sell indiscriminately during tough times. Warren Buffett's support of management during a crisis helped American Express recover and solidify its reputation. The tension between short-term profits and long-term value was central to Buffett's approach, focusing on long-term growth. Hetty Green, a 19th-century investor, was a pioneering value investor who predicted market trends and became a major player in railroads and mortgages. During the Panic of 1907, Hetty Green predicted the failure of a major trust company and later lent to New York City, preventing bankruptcy. Bobby Bonilla's deferred payment contract with the New York Mets showcased the importance of understanding time value of money and opportunity cost. The story of Cristiano Ronaldo’s snubbing of Coca-Cola at a press conference led to a $4 billion market drop, but it was actually due to the stock’s ex-dividend date, not his actions. The Coca-Cola stock drop was an example of correlation not equaling causation, teaching the importance of distinguishing between the two in investing. Today's Panelists: Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth Phil Weiss | Apprise Wealth Management Jeff Hulett |  Finance Revamp Follow on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/moneytreepodcast Follow LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/showcase/money-tree-investing-podcast Follow on Twitter/X: https://x.com/MTIPodcast For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/https://moneytreepodcast.com/trailblazers-heroes-and-crooks-stephen-foerster-672 

Transcribed - Published: 27 December 2024

Today we cover a mix of festive holiday reflections and current Christmas trends. We debate the merits of artificial versus real trees, the Federal Reserve's recent decision to lower interest rates, market reactions, and the potential onset of a recession, and historical cases like Puerto Rico's bond defaults, and more! It's a Merry Christmas here! Today we discuss...  How Hanukkah's alignment with Christmas is rare due to differing solar cycles and offers a unique multi-year celebration opportunity for 2024-2025. A shift from real to artificial Christmas trees, driven by mold allergies. A personal tradition of year-end reflection, dubbed "Best Year Ever," emphasizing life evaluation and goal setting over a two-week holiday break. Fed Chair Powell's interest rate cuts and their implications for markets and economic confidence were analyzed, with insights on potential recession signals like the inverted yield curve. Economic indicators, including high-yield bond performance and confidence metrics, were examined to forecast recession risks and investor sentiment. The Puerto Rican bond default served as a cautionary tale for assessing risks in high-yield portfolios, drawing parallels to current market trends. Market bullishness is fueled by a strong economy, decent earnings, and optimism about new presidential policies perceived as pro-business. Concerns were raised about tariff policies potentially replacing income tax and their inflationary implications. The market appears overvalued, with current performance exceeding economic fundamentals, risking a potential correction. Reversion to the mean was discussed as a natural market dynamic, suggesting that extreme highs or lows eventually balance out. Rising money market assets reflect cautious investor behavior, with significant cash reserves awaiting better market valuations. Inflationary pressures are linked to reduced supply and increased money supply, paralleling market dynamics. Markets need a perceived value shift to attract sidelined liquidity. Year-end is a prime time to reassess portfolios and consider tax implications. Reflect on strong market performance and evaluate whether reallocating or profit-taking is prudent. December 31st and January 1st are pivotal market dates due to tax-loss selling and portfolio rebalancing. Diversification theory, while historically valuable, may now be less effective due to increased asset correlation. Risk is the permanent loss of capital, whereas volatility is short-term price fluctuation. The current bull market may soon rival the 1990s tech boom in duration and performance, though a mean reversion is expected. High-yield bonds should be viewed more like high-dividend equities due to their risk and reward profile. Online shopping has grown but still accounts for less than 20% of total retail sales. Men and women share similar preferences for holiday gifts, favoring money, clothing, and gift cards.   Today's Panelists: Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth Douglas Heagren | ProCollege Planners Follow on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/moneytreepodcast Follow LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/showcase/money-tree-investing-podcast Follow on Twitter/X: https://x.com/MTIPodcast For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/christmas-trends-671   

Transcribed - Published: 25 December 2024

Blake Harris shares tips for how to improve your asset protection! The conversation delves into how offshore trusts differ from domestic ones. Blake also dispels misconceptions about offshore trusts, emphasizing their legality and utility for asset protection rather than tax evasion. We explore how these trusts work, the best jurisdictions for establishing them, and the practical benefits for individuals seeking robust asset protection.  Today we discuss... Offshore trusts help protect assets from lawsuits and divorces while allowing clients to retain control over their investments. Asset protection trusts are designed to prevent courts from easily seizing assets. Offshore trusts offer stronger protection compared to domestic trusts by shifting control to foreign trustees in jurisdictions like the Cook Islands. Offshore trusts provide access to foreign investments and international diversification opportunities. Unlike older practices of hiding money offshore, these trusts comply with IRS reporting requirements and are not used for tax evasion. Countries like the Cook Islands, Nevis, and Belize offer asset protection laws, but the Cook Islands are regarded as the strongest jurisdiction. Domestic trusts are weaker because U.S. courts can compel trustees to hand over assets. Offshore trusts can help clients negotiate favorable settlements or avoid lawsuits altogether. Compliance with offshore trust regulations involves some reporting but is manageable with expert guidance. Asset protection trusts primarily safeguard cash, stocks, bonds, crypto, gold, and silver in Swiss bank accounts. Cryptocurrency can be held under a Cook Islands trust via self-custody, third-party vaults, or Swiss bank accounts. Real estate is typically held in LLCs tied to the trust, with options for further protection through equity stripping. Divorces are treated as "super creditor" cases, but Cook Islands trustees can refuse to release funds under duress. Clients comply with court orders but trustees protect assets by requiring sworn statements of no duress. U.S. courts cannot force clients to perjure themselves, further securing trust assets. Over 10 million lawsuits are filed annually in the U.S., creating a need for robust asset protection strategies. For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/asset-protection-blake-harris-670 

Transcribed - Published: 20 December 2024

Where is the Santa Clause Rally and why isn't it here yet? What is here however, is drones! Today we talk about the current events including drone sightings and assassinations. We highlight the lack of transparency in politics, corporate media, and Wall Street - there definitely needs to be critical thinking. We also address the "Santa Claus rally" phenomenon since it could be anecdotal as it lacks consistent data. We talk bullish market trends, year-end tax-loss selling, and being mindful of market seasonality and timing. Today we discuss... High-profile events and media narratives around it. The wealth concentrated around Washington, D.C., highlighting systemic corruption. The "Santa Claus rally" phenomenon and its historical market impact. Analysis of seasonal market trends, including tax-loss harvesting and year-end buying opportunities. Observations on the rise of 401(k) millionaires, with caution about potential biases in data reporting. The Euphorometer shows that the stock market's current euphoria level is the highest in the last 30 years, warranting caution. Despite some bearish signals, the market is generally bullish with strong momentum. Foreign holdings of U.S. assets are at historic highs, signaling confidence in the U.S. economy. Job numbers are showing some signs of softness, which requires monitoring. Investors need a clear plan, whether it’s buy-and-hold or other strategies, and should stick with it through market fluctuations. Consumer bullishness is at odds with expectations for income growth, creating divergence in sentiment. The stock market’s sentiment is very strong, but investors should be cautious of potential over-optimism. The idea of having a flexible plan for market shifts, especially around year-end, is highlighted. The 60/40 portfolio model is becoming outdated as it struggles to balance volatility in bullish times. Momentum investing has its risks, as trends can change unexpectedly. The U.S. deficit is rising rapidly, with projections suggesting a $3.5 trillion deficit. Inflation-adjusted home prices are at historical highs, with housing prices showing significant growth since the late 90s. The income needed to afford a home has nearly doubled over the past decade, limiting demand. Despite challenges in the housing market, stock market expectations remain high, driven by hope rather than data. For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/where-is-the-santa-clause-rally    Today's Panelists: Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth Douglas Heagren | ProCollege Planners Follow on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/moneytreepodcast Follow LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/showcase/money-tree-investing-podcast Follow on Twitter/X: https://x.com/MTIPodcast  

Transcribed - Published: 18 December 2024