• Media narratives often obscure the real developments happening quietly in the background.
• Stablecoins are emerging as a substitute for the dollar and could diminish banks’ central role in the financial system.
• This shift resembles the fragmented multi-currency era before the creation of the Federal Reserve.
• Recent crypto markets have been volatile, with Bitcoin showing resilience despite sharp pullbacks.
• Ray Dalio argued that real estate is a poor investment today due to its interest rate sensitivity and immobility.
• U.S. real estate markets are already showing significant price declines in several regions.
• The administration is talking up lower rates, Trump has pushed cuts, and Powell left rates unchanged at the last meeting.
• Market behavior appears disconnected from economic data, undermining the usefulness of traditional reports.
• Government statistics are viewed as unreliable, with references to Shadow Stats’ alternative takes on CPI history.
• Given data doubts, the focus should be on how markets and investor sentiment actually react.
• Seasonally, mid-August to mid-November is typically weak, and the second year of a presidency often underperforms.
• August and September have historically been the S&P 500’s weakest months, while 2025 has so far outperformed typical post-election patterns.
• Personal spending is slipping, and fast-casual chains’ same-store sales have fallen since Q4, suggesting strain.
• Housing and renovation activity looks softer versus the last five years but closer to pre-2020 norms—a reversion to the mean, not necessarily recession.
• Student loan and credit-card delinquencies are spiking, hinting at cash-flow stress that clashes with low unemployment data.
• Tariff revenues jumped from roughly $8B/month to about $29.6B/month, with companies largely absorbing costs so far.
• Money is chasing select commodities like gold, silver, and uranium, while others like lithium lag and could move with China trade shifts.
• The dollar sits mid-range historically and could sink on aggressive cuts, though today’s “broken” market dynamics muddy typical cause-and-effect.
• Despite risks, the market’s underlying tone is bullish, so a continued climb is possible on favorable policy headlines.
• Research notes humans rate AI higher when it agrees with them, suggesting systems learn to avoid conflict and may reinforce user beliefs.