Your Financial Advisor Hates This Bull Market

Money Tree Investing

Money Tree Investing Podcast

Stockmarket, Valuestocks, Investing, Finance, Passiveincome, Wealth, Business, Personalfinance

4.6 • 658 Ratings

🗓️ 1 October 2025

⏱️ 46 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

Your financial advisor hates this bull market! Find out what it is as we talk the recent market conditions as well as the potential upcoming government shutdown, noting that while shutdowns once spooked markets, investors have become largely desensitized as they rarely have major lasting effects outside of government employees and contractors. Shutdowns have historically been used as political tools, sometimes causing GDP drag and reputational costs, but now often register as background noise. We also chat about seasonal and cyclical inflection points—like quarter-ends, tax-loss selling, and earnings season—that can drive short-term volatility. It's important to keep your perspective, recognizing political drama as a “circus,” and instead focusing on underlying market cycles. Today we discuss...

Government shutdowns used to trigger fear in markets but now typically cause little more than short-term noise.
Politicians increasingly use shutdowns as leverage tools in budget negotiations rather than genuine fiscal concerns.
Past shutdowns have shown temporary GDP drag but very little lasting structural harm to markets.
Markets tend to quickly recover after shutdown drama fades, reinforcing investor desensitization.
The real drivers of volatility now are cyclical factors like quarter-end portfolio adjustments and tax-loss harvesting.
Earnings season consistently creates inflection points for markets, often outweighing political headlines.
Seasonal forces can exaggerate short-term market swings, particularly in September and October.
Positioning between defensive stocks and growth stocks is more critical for risk management than reacting to shutdown fears.
Broader global market trends often matter more than U.S. political events.
U.S. small-cap stocks have underperformed compared to large caps and international equities, reflecting structural weaknesses.
Investors should focus on long-term positioning rather than reacting to short-lived shutdown volatility.
Shutdowns reveal the widening gap between political theater and actual economic fundamentals.
Short-term market noise from shutdowns can actually create opportunities for disciplined investors.
Shutdowns are best understood as temporary disruptions, not trend-defining events.

Today's Panelists:

Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth
Douglas Heagren | Mergent College Advisors

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Transcript

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0:00.0	Welcome to the Money Tree Investing Podcast. Stock market, wealth, personal finance, value stocks, invest in your life. Hello, Smart Money Tree Podcast listeners. Welcome to this week's show. My name's Kirk Chisholm. I'll be your host. And today I'm joined with Doug Hagerin. Hey, Doug. Hey, Kirk, better late than never this week. I think we normally go Friday, and so everybody's getting a little midweek updates.
0:24.0	I change things a little bit.
0:25.6	Yeah, keeping everybody in their toes.
0:27.7	I moved this weekend, so the listeners know I've been renting since 2020 and bought a place
0:33.9	and moved in.
0:34.9	So this weekend has been a whirlwind, including yesterday,
0:38.5	which I think we were originally supposed to do yesterday, but couldn't get that done because
0:42.9	we didn't have the internet on time. It was supposed to do it yesterday morning, and Verizon
0:47.2	just, so I got to love the Verizon Comcast of the world. So I remember back when I was just out of college, the cable
0:56.1	signal coming out of the wall, they never turned it off. You could wait a few months before you
1:02.5	called them because they just left it on. Now, I moved yesterday, the internet from Verizon from
1:10.6	one house to another. They literally shut it off that morning because I was at the first house, I was at my rental house to do the podcast, and they shut it off. I'm like, what the heck? But, and then they turned it on later that day here. And anyway, so is what it is. Well, I mean, yeah, back in the day, they had to manually disconnected. Now it's, yeah, everything's changed. Yeah, now they just, but I was thinking, I was like, why do you need to, like, cut it that close? But anyway, this is what it is. So apologies for me today late, but we're getting to it. Yeah, lots to talk about. I want to talk about a few things, a bunch of different concepts today. But one thing I want to talk about a few things, a bunch of different concepts today.
1:45.8	But one thing I want to talk about that we have this shutdown coming tomorrow, apparently,
1:50.6	or tonight, we'll see what happens.
1:52.4	It's always, I think by now no one seems to care anymore.
1:57.0	The first time this happened, I think it was under Obama where this really came to head the first time.
2:01.3	And everyone was freaking out and the market flipped out over this.
2:05.2	I forget what it dropped, but it was significant enough.
2:08.4	Any subsequent time it's happened, the market's cared less and less.
2:12.0	Because the end of the day, if the federal government shuts down, do we really care?
2:19.3	Elon couldn't have had it so good.
2:21.9	The best thing that Trump could do is shut down the federal government.
	...

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