More Shocking Signs... The Economy Is Breaking

Money Tree Investing

Money Tree Investing Podcast

Stockmarket, Valuestocks, Investing, Finance, Passiveincome, Wealth, Business, Personalfinance

4.6 • 658 Ratings

🗓️ 26 November 2025

⏱️ 54 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

The economy is breaking, and today we discuss the signs. We explore the challenges of navigating today's markets, highlighting the volatility and skepticism around AI-driven companies, overinflated stock valuations, and earnings season dynamics where "beating expectations" often masks underlying realities. It's important to be cautious investors over high P/E ratios, unsustainable growth, and market timing. You need to focus on risk management over speculation. Critical thinking is also imperative while evaluating data and it's important to question assumptions and focus on market behavior rather than blindly trusting reported numbers.

We discuss...

Volatility in November and the flat performance in October, with a mixed outlook for the remaining six weeks of the year.
Historical trends in presidential cycles, noting that the second year is statistically the worst for stock market performance, while years one, three, and four tend to perform better.
The impact of earnings season on markets and how companies often beat expectations by managing guidance strategically, which can mislead retail investors.
The market's reaction to AI-related companies, the skepticism around reported growth, revenue, and inter-company financing "shenanigans."
Historical parallels to the late 1990s internet bubble, where vendor financing inflated revenues before companies ultimately collapsed.
The difficulty of individual stock investing, noting that growth rates slow as companies mature and valuations often contract over time.
The risk of focusing on long-term predictions without timing, being "right too early" can result in significant opportunity costs and losses.
Michael Burry's recent hedge fund moves, his short positions on AI-related stocks like Nvidia and the implications for investors skeptical of inflated earnings.
Timing is critical in investing, caution with high-growth sectors and risk management rather than speculative bets are needs.
Investors should not blindly trust government or corporate data, but instead focus on market behavior and price trends to assess reality.
There's importance in distinguishing between what is factually true and what the market believes.
Apply critical thinking, question assumptions, and focus on present market realities rather than speculative long-term projections.

Today's Panelists:

Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth
Phil Weiss | Apprise Wealth Management

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For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/the-economy-is-breaking

Transcript

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0:00.0	Welcome to the Money Tree Investing Podcast.
0:04.0	Stock market, wealth, personal finance, value stocks, invest in your life.
0:10.0	Hello, Smart Money Tree Podcast listeners. Welcome to this week's show.
0:14.0	My name is Kurt Chisholm. I'll be your host.
0:16.0	And today I'm joined with my good friend Phil Weiss. Hey, Phil.
0:18.0	Hey, Kirk. How are you doing on this fine Friday?
0:28.2	I'm doing great. It's Friday before the week of Thanksgiving and exciting. This is the time of year where things start to both speed up and slow down because next week, no one's doing any work.
0:34.3	If you have to work, I'm sorry for you. I really am. I used to be that
0:38.1	person. That's why I run my own business, so I don't have to be that person anymore. But everybody I talked to, no one's, no one's working that week. Everyone's just kind of taking it off or most of it off. Maybe it's so they couldn't spend a lot of time shopping, spending their hard-earned money for the holidays. But whatever it is, hopefully you're going to join next week.
0:57.7	And then there's two hard weeks, the first two weeks of December. And then I take the last two weeks of the year off. Christmas and New Year's falling on Thursday. So pretty much those weeks, people aren't doing much work. And so I usually take them off just because no one's
1:11.2	around. And so you've got two or three weeks at the beginning of the month. And then then that's it
1:15.9	for the year. So this is just going to accelerate. At the same time, it's time to really slow down and
1:21.7	relax and, you know, enjoy the holiday season with family and friends. So I'm trying to do that more this year.
1:29.3	I'm excited to do some of that in our new house. We'll be hosting Thanksgiving.
1:33.6	You do anything fun for Thanksgiving, Phil?
1:35.8	We go to New Jersey to my brother-in-law's house. And when my mother-in-law was alive,
1:41.9	there used to be like 50 or 60 people, and the number has fallen back. And now my brother-in-law is back to inviting more people. So it'll be a little, I would guess it'll be 30, 40 people there this year. So we'll go up for a couple days. Then we come back on Saturday because one of my sons, his birthday is at the end of the month, so we're going to come here and celebrate his
2:01.3	birthday. He does a friend's giving with his friends. Also looking forward to today, my daughter
2:06.6	comes home. Her break from college starts today, so it be nice to have everybody here.
2:12.6	But I will work a little bit next week. I hate to admit a little bit. You know, I was out last week,
2:18.9	so that kind of means I give me a catch-up week. Like there's not a lot of meetings. It's just to
2:24.2	catch up on stuff. Yeah, I'm with you on that. I'm definitely working next week, but I'm going to be
	...

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