• Sunk cost bias was illustrated with examples in plumbing repairs, investing in stocks like QQQ, and hiring ineffective marketers in business.
• People often continue bad relationships or investments due to the psychological discomfort of admitting mistakes.
• Non-decisions are still decisions, and it's important to consciously choose a path rather than defaulting to inaction.
• The conversation shifted to propaganda in media and politics, including discussions about global warming and COVID messaging.
• Nuclear energy is the only scalable solution for energy needs if climate change is real, and that AI and technology interests influenced the shift in media focus.
• We discussed deliberate and coincidental market messaging, citing examples of Fed statements and past financial crises like 2008.
• Michael Burry's recent fund positions and put options on Nvidia and Palantir were discussed as a signal for investors to pay attention, though not necessarily to follow blindly.
• Extreme caution in investing is recommended, particularly in markets or sectors one does not fully understand, such as the stressed auto-loan market.
• Signs of market stress were highlighted, including unusual moves in the SOFR rate and subprime auto-loan distress, though not on the scale of the 2008 mortgage crisis.
• The K-shaped economy was explained, where asset holders benefit from price inflation while those without assets see income stagnation and rising expenses.
• Rising housing costs and mortgage challenges were linked to declining fertility rates and generational effects on college and workforce participation.
• Indicators of market sentiment, including CNN's Fear and Greed Index, were analyzed, with a caution not to follow them blindly as they often lag or mislead.
• Observations were made on shifting consumer behaviors, including declining cash usage and businesses refusing pennies as payment.
• Future discussion topics were teased, including REIT investment opportunities and year-to-date market performance insights.