War on the Rocks

We are sharing a free episode of Thinking the Unthinkable with you all due to fast-moving events between India and Pakistan. This episode features host Ankit Panda and guest Sameer Lalwani discussing the risks involved in a military conflict between nuclear-armed India and Pakistan. This episode was recorded after the April 22 attack in Kashmir that prompted the current round of tensions and before India launched strikes on Pakistan, and digs into the risks in the event of an attack.

Transcribed - Published: 7 May 2025

Ryan popped across the Potomac to the Pentagon to speak with Secretary of the Army Daniel Driscoll and Army Chief of Staff Gen. Randy George about the ambitious Army Transformation Initiative. Following a directive from the secretary of defense, the initiative aims to streamline the Army’s force structure, cut wasteful spending, and rapidly modernize its capabilities. 

Transcribed - Published: 6 May 2025

Michael Kofman and Dara Massicot join Ryan to unpack how the Trump administration's ambitious peace efforts have collided with reality. They dive into how strategic calculations, politics, military conditions, and societal developments have shaped diplomacy, assessing how various pressures and intentions could redefine — or derail — pathways toward ending the war. 

Transcribed - Published: 5 May 2025

In today's world, turbulence isn't temporary — it's the new normal. In this episode, Gen. (ret.) David Berger, former commandant of the U.S. Marine Corps, shares why adaptability, resilience, and grit are not just desirable but essential traits for leaders in an uncertain and unpredictable age. Successful leaders must embrace disruption rather than waiting for stability to return, he tells Ryan. And after offering insights from his career as a Marine officer, including his experience planning and leading Force Design 2030, Gen. Berger shares what life has been like after hanging up the uniform. 

Transcribed - Published: 1 May 2025

Gen. Michael Claesson, Chief of Defense of the Swedish Armed Forces, joined Ryan during a visit to Washington to share how NATO has changed Sweden's armed forces as well as the details of their modernization, consolidation, and expansion efforts — on land, at sea, and in the air. They also discuss the challenges of mobilization in future wars defined by higher technology systems, training, working with industry, and how Sweden has learned from Russia's war against Ukraine. Claesson ends with his views on how he tries to shape Sweden's next generation of most senior military officers. 

Transcribed - Published: 16 April 2025

In this joint episode with the Net Assessment crew, recorded last week on "Liberation Day," Ryan joins Chris, Zack, and Melanie to talk about what's happening in the world as well as the future of Net Assessment, which is moving on to its forever home with the Stimson Center. If you would like to support Net Assessment, please consider donating to this special fund. https://www.stimson.org/support/ We also feature a trailer from a series of panels convened by former Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull, which you can listen to in full on his podcast, Defending Democracy. https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/defending-democracy-with-malcolm-turnbull/id1674095396  

Transcribed - Published: 11 April 2025

In this episode, we get into what's driving the Indo-Pacific's security dynamics, from China's threats to Taiwan to AUKUS and the Quad to stability (or lack thereof) on the Korean Peninsula to bases in the Philippines. We also touch on how prepared the United States may be to deliver military power in the Indo-Pacific based on forthcoming resourcing decisions by the Trump administration and Congress. Get ready for a smart, insightful conversation you won't want to miss with Lisa Curtis (CNAS), Zack Cooper (AEI), and Dmitri Alperovitch (Silverado). Cooper has a great new book out called Tides of Fortune: The Rise and Decline of Great Militaries (https://a.co/d/cP4OPgU). And so does Alperovitch, who wrote World on the Brink: How America Can Beat China in the Race for the Twenty-First Century (https://a.co/d/eUDRdlF) with Garrett M. Graff. 

Transcribed - Published: 26 March 2025

Last week, a meeting with President Zelensky of Ukraine at the White House exploded into acrimony in front of the cameras. Since then, an era-defining drama has been unfolding across the West as Europe prepares for a world where it might not be backed by U.S. military power. U.S. military aid and at least some intelligence support for Ukraine have also been suspended. What happened? And what happens next?   To answer these questions, Ryan was joined by Constanze Stelzenmüller (Brookings), Melinda Haring (Razom), Justin Logan (Cato), and Michael Kofman (Carnegie).    The letter referenced by Stelzenmüller can be read here: https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_25_684

Transcribed - Published: 6 March 2025

The Marine general and deputy commandant in charge of installations and logistics was kind enough to join Ryan for a wide-ranging conversation on military service, logistics, and so much more. Whether you are a servicemember or someone interested in how the U.S. military will be able to stay in the fight should a war break out in the Indo-Pacific, this episode is a must-listen. This episode was supported by Onebrief. 

Transcribed - Published: 3 March 2025

Nothing about the war in Ukraine is simple — including the diplomacy, which might be even messier than the battlefield. Michael Kofman, Justin Logan (Cato), and Liana Fix (the Council on Foreign Relations) joined Ryan to help him understand the negotiations underway about Ukraine's fate. From the minerals deal to Zelensky's approach to Trump to the prospects for a European peacekeeping force, they cover it all, and have a few friendly arguments along the way.

Transcribed - Published: 28 February 2025

Member of U.K. Parliament and military veteran Tom Tugendhat was recently in Washington and was kind enough to join Ryan for a short but weighty conversation. Tugendhat chaired the Foreign Affairs Select Committee between 2017 and 2022 and then served in the previous government as minister of state for security. They discussed his time in government as well as the landscape of threats, including (not surprisingly) Russia — and how the war might best end — as well as China, informed by his recent trip to Taiwan. Please note this episode was recorded before the Munich Security Conference. 

Transcribed - Published: 17 February 2025

Will NATO be able to innovate and adapt before a crisis? Adm. Pierre Vandier popped into War on the Rocks HQ for a most interesting chat about this very question. He serves as Supreme Allied Commander Transformation. A senior leader in the French navy and career fighter pilot, Vandier is responsible for the transformation of NATO's military structures, forces, capabilities, and doctrines. With Ukraine struggling against Russia, technology advancing at a thunderous pace, and the geopolitical landscape shifting, Vandier offers some fascinating, quotable insights. 

Transcribed - Published: 12 February 2025

Mike Kofman joined Ryan for a wide-ranging conversation on the challenges faced by both Ukraine and Russia this year. They discuss losses on both sides, manpower challenges, the importance of following the discourse in Ukraine, the Russian economy, and whether the Russian pace of operations will clearly slow down. This episode is brought to you by Bedrock Knowledge.

Transcribed - Published: 27 January 2025

On the sidelines of I/ITSEC in Orlando, we hosted a live podcast recording. Our guest for this very special episode was Maj. Gen. Dominique Luzeaux of France, currently championing NATO's digital transformation. This wide-ranging conversation between Ryan and Maj. Gen. Luzeaux covered training with new technologies, lessons from Ukraine, AI and more. They both also discussed what they learned from the best bosses they ever had.    Thanks to Metrea for sponsoring the very special party where we recorded this episode, as well as the terrific audience in Orlando at the Capital Grille. 

Transcribed - Published: 23 December 2024

Mike Kofman and Ryan have a high-level conversation on strategy in this war, or the lack thereof. From Ukraine's mobilization reluctance to the Biden administration's curious approach to sequencing authorities and capabilities, they review what might ultimately cost Ukraine the war. And make no mistake, that is where the war is trending. Ryan also runs an idea by Mike on how the issue of security guarantees might work in the event of a peace settlement, in a way that doesn't involve NATO directly. 

Transcribed - Published: 4 December 2024

We are sharing a free Thanksgiving episode of the Russia Contingency with you all to express our gratitude for your listenership and support. This episode, brought to you by OneBrief, features Michael Kofman and Rob Lee discussing the state of the Russo-Ukrainian War and the role of technology, especially drones. Many of the insights they share are based on their recent research trip to Ukraine. 

Transcribed - Published: 27 November 2024

Mike Kofman came by WOTR HQ to discuss the state of the front and findings from his most recent research trip to Ukraine. From North Korean troops, to manpower woes, to Donald Trump coming back to the Oval Office, what does it all add up to for Ukraine?  

Transcribed - Published: 12 November 2024

Ryan popped over to Quantico to speak with four marines at the forefront of major advances in marksmanship in America's 9-1-1 force. Listen in as Maj. Steve Stephenson, Capt. Phil Williams, Gunner Josh Grayek, and Gunnery Sgt. Jude Stewart of Weapons Training Battalion explain how they are making the Marine Corps more lethal and capable than ever before. And, if you're interested in reading more, check out their article in the Gazette, "Continuously Revolutionizing Small-Arms Lethality."

Transcribed - Published: 29 October 2024

Michael Kofman popped into WOTR HQ to speak with Ryan about the war. They discussed territorial losses in the Donbas, the situation in Kursk, manpower challenges on both sides, and how Ukraine is seeing war termination on favorable terms. This episode also features a short preview of the most recent episode of Mike's members-only show, "The Russia Contingency," which featured an extended conversation with Mick Ryan, a retired Australian general and world-renowned expert on military affairs. Become a member to listen here: https://warontherocks.com/membership

Transcribed - Published: 29 September 2024

Three sharp directors on the National Security Council staff invited Ryan over to the Eisenhower Executive Office Building to chat about the Icebreaker Collaboration Effort, or ICE Pact, which is a trilateral partnership between the United States, Canada, and Finland that's aimed at delivering the icebreakers America needs while also jump-starting U.S. competitiveness and power in shipbuilding overall. We also advertise our new members-only podcast hosted by Benjamin Jensen, "Not the AI You're Looking For" in the middle of this episode. Join War on the Rocks platinum and listen at https://warontherocks.com/membership

Transcribed - Published: 19 September 2024

Mike Kofman popped into WOTR HQ to speak with Ryan about the state of play in Ukraine. From south to north, they review the situation at the front, with special attention to Ukraine's offensive operation into Russian territory, to include its political implications. They talk about manpower and fortifications and explore how much F-16s might change the skies over Ukraine. This episode was sponsored by Onebrief. Learn more about how they are transforming military planning: onebrief.com

Transcribed - Published: 21 August 2024

The U.S. Army, from the chief of staff on down, is putting its weight behind getting soldiers to take writing and publishing more seriously as an important part of the profession of arms. From the Harding Project to the revitalization of branch journals to the Line of Departure website (coming this fall) to a special forthcoming issue of Military Review on the topic, there is a lot of energy, action, and momentum behind this. Three soldiers — one non-commissioned officer and two officers — join Ryan to talk about why professional writing is so important for the writing and the solider. We hope you enjoy this conversation with Sgt. 1st Class Leyton Summerlin, Maj. Emily Lopez, and Lt. Col. Zachary Griffiths. The views they express do not represent those of the U.S. Army, the Defense Department, or any part of the U.S. government.

Transcribed - Published: 15 August 2024

This is part one of a two-parter on Ukraine's operation into the Russian oblast of Kursk and it's from our members-only show, "The Russia Contingency" with Michael Kofman. In this episode Mike discusses this fast developing situation with his colleague at the Carnegie Endowment, Dara Massicot. If you're a member, you can listen to part two. Become member at: https://warontherocks.com/membership.

Transcribed - Published: 10 August 2024

Ryan was joined by Melissa Griffith (SAIS-Johns Hopkins), Anne Marie Schumann (Department of the Navy), Alexis Bonnell (Air Force Research Laboratory), and Tyler Sweatt (Second Front) for a free-wheeling, candid, and thoughtful conversation on the challenges of cyber security in the Defense Department. You won't want to miss this. Please keep in mind that the views expressed by Schumann and Bonnell are their own and do not represent those of their organizations, the Department of the Navy, the Department of the Air Force, the Department of Defense, or any part of the U.S. government.

Transcribed - Published: 7 August 2024

A sailor from a landlocked state and a soldier from a state with the country's second longest coastline are trying to accomplish something transformative for American seapower. Sen. Mark Kelly (D-AZ) and Rep. Mike Waltz (R-FL) are leading an important bi-partisan and bi-cameral effort to revitalize American shipbuilding and maritime strategy. They were kind enough join Ryan for a substantive and wide-ranging conversation. You can read their report on national maritime strategy here (pdf).

Transcribed - Published: 19 July 2024

Mike Kofman dropped by War on the Rocks HQ to update us on the war, drawing on his findings from his recent field study in Ukraine. They discuss the state of the front (and why developments at the front might be less important than before), mobilization, China's role as a gateway and supplier for Russia, the debate over Ukraine using U.S. weapons for deep strike into Russia, and tough choices facing Kyiv.

Transcribed - Published: 13 July 2024

Ryan met with Adm. Rob Bauer of the Royal Netherlands Navy for a conversation in Washington, DC. As chair of the NATO Military Committee, he is the senior-most military officer in the alliance. They discussed many things from Ukraine to why military industrial capacity has become such a defining issue for his tenure. On the eve of the NATO summit in Washington, this is a must-listen episode. Don't forget to check out our membership program: https://warontherocks.com/membership

Transcribed - Published: 7 July 2024

Last year, Rajmund Andrzejczak retired as Poland's chief of the general staff, but he has been busy since. During a recent visit to Washington, he spoke with Ryan about his career, European security, Polish defense, manpower, Ukraine, and what he's been up to, including his podcast "Ground Zero."

Transcribed - Published: 25 June 2024

Michael Kofman dropped into WOTR HQ to chat with Ryan about the war in Ukraine. From Russia's culminated offensive on Kharkiv, to battlefields of the Donbas, to ongoing fighting in the south, to Russia's displaced Black Sea Fleet, Mike parses through the data to try and assess where the war is heading next.

Transcribed - Published: 14 June 2024

It's become more and more common for organizations in the Defense Department, from the military services to geographic combatant commands and beyond, to have chief technology officers. What do they do? What challenges do they tackle? Why are they becoming increasingly important as the U.S. military tries to maintain its technological edge over China and other shrewd and savvy rivals using tech to create asymmetries? To help grapple with these questions, I sat down with Schuyler Moore, the CTO of U.S. Central Command, and Justin Fanelli, the CTO of the U.S. Department of the Navy.

Transcribed - Published: 10 June 2024

Secretary of the Air Force Frank Kendall was kind enough to spend some time with Ryan talking about the reorganization of the Department of the Air Force and modernization. They also discussed the challenges new entrants have breaking into working with the Defense Department. And they closed with a brief discussion about resistance to plans to move some Air National Guard members from six states into the Space Force.

Transcribed - Published: 22 May 2024

Nick sat down with United States Coast Guard Commandant Adm. Linda Fagan to discuss the Coast Guard’s global activities, from the Arctic to the Indo-Pacific to the growing digital security challenges to America’s ports.

Transcribed - Published: 10 May 2024

The U.S. Congress finally passed the security supplement, authorizing a large amount of funding and support to keep Ukraine in the fight. This package buys Ukraine another year of time. What will Ukraine do with that time? What is the situation at the front? Michael Kofman answers these questions and more.

Transcribed - Published: 6 May 2024

Ryan sat down with three friends to talk about the war in Ukraine through the lens of a new edited volume on the topic. Enjoy this conversation with Andrea Kendall-Taylor (former CIA), Hal Brands, and Alexander Bick (former National Security Council staff), which surfaces some important disagreements and debates about the war and international order. Oh, and also buy War in Ukraine: Conflict, Strategy, and the Return of a Fractured World (https://www.amazon.com/War-Ukraine-Conflict-Strategy-Fractured/dp/1421449846). Please note this was recorded shortly before the U.S. Congress passed the security supplemental, which included aid for Ukraine.

Transcribed - Published: 1 May 2024

Nick sat down with Eric Brewer, Dana Stroul, and Gavin Clough to discuss how the conventional, proxy, and nuclear threats Iran poses are evolving. Who was deterred and who wasn't by the latest Iranian and Israeli strikes? What did we learn about Iranian capabilities? And how will this affect Iran's thinking about a bomb?

Transcribed - Published: 26 April 2024

On the sidelines of the National Space Symposium, we threw a little party and recorded a podcast, because why not? Our special guest was Assistant Secretary of Defense for Space Policy John Plumb and the main focus of the conversation was the Defense Department's new strategy on space commercial integration.

Transcribed - Published: 19 April 2024

This deep and fascinating conversation is one of a two-part discussion that you can listen to on the Russia Contingency, a members-only podcast hosted by Michael Kofman. Become a member here: https://warontherocks.com/membership

Transcribed - Published: 10 April 2024

Nick sat down with Czech Ambassador to the United States Miloslav Stašek for a geographically wide-ranging conversation that moved from Munich to the Middle East to the Texas automotive industry. Amb. Stašek discussed the progress of his government’s ammunition initiative for Ukraine, relations within the Visegrád Group and the expanding scope of U.S.-Czech ties.

Transcribed - Published: 8 April 2024

Ryan popped into Austin to see what the Army Applications Laboratory was getting up to. Its director, Dr. Casey Perley, was kind enough to sit down with Ryan and break it down for him. If you care about military innovation, defense tech, and the future of the Army, this episode is for you.

Transcribed - Published: 3 April 2024

Nick Danforth sat down with Moldovan Ambassador to the United States Viorel Ursu last week to discuss democracy, energy and Russian hybrid warfare, not to mention Black Sea security and the post-conflict politics of wine exports.

Transcribed - Published: 22 March 2024

Mike Kofman, fresh back from a research trip to Ukraine, spoke with Ryan about Ukraine's main challenges in facing down Russia this year.

Transcribed - Published: 17 March 2024

Ryan visited Ambassador Marek Magierowski at the Polish Embassy in Washington. They spoke about Poland's military build-up and the challenges posed by Russia's ongoing war against Ukraine. Much of their conversation focused on defense industrial issues, which sit at the heart of NATO's most difficult hurdles.

Transcribed - Published: 11 March 2024

Ryan sat down at the Pentagon with Gen. Gary Brito, who leads U.S. Army Training and Doctrine Command, to talk about strengthening Army professionalism, which Gen. Randy George, the chief of staff of the U.S. Army, has identified as one of his key priorities. Whether you're a solider, Department of the Army civilian, a contractor supporting the Army, or just someone interested in the future of America's Army, this episode is for you.

Transcribed - Published: 5 March 2024

On the second anniversary of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Ryan and Mike Kofman sit down to chat about where the war stands today and where things are heading. It is, to be candid, a pessimistic conversation. They cover the fall of Avdiivka, military leadership changes, Ukraine's mobilization challenges, Congressional dysfunction, European defense spending, and more.

Transcribed - Published: 24 February 2024

Last week, Nick Danforth sat down with Denise Natali, Doug Ollivant and Bilal Wahab to discuss the latest in Iraqi politics? They debated what Iraq was like on Oc. 6th, how it has been impacted by the war in Gaza, and where the country will be five years from now.

Transcribed - Published: 19 February 2024

Ryan and Ely Ratner, assistant secretary of defense for Indo-Pacific security affairs, chatted about, well, it's in his job title. They discussed North Korean intentions, American military posture, deepening cooperation between South Korea and Japan, Chinese military modernization, corruption in the Chinese military, and deterring an attack on Taiwan.

Transcribed - Published: 13 February 2024

As the world grapples again with the dangers of nuclear weapons use, Aaron sat down with Ankit Panda, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, and Heather Williams, the director of the project on nuclear issues and a senior fellow in the International Security Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, to discuss new nuclear dynamics, the meaning of deterrence, and debate about the future of U.S. nuclear weapons strategy. PS: We are hiring a membership editor. If you want to play a critical role in driving conversations and debates about national security, you should consider applying: https://apply.workable.com/war-on-the-rocks/j/2F3A361BCE/

Transcribed - Published: 8 February 2024

As the largest war in Europe since World War II rages and as China rises, the U.S. Army is preparing for an evermore dangerous world with an ambitious vision. To learn more about this vision, Ryan paid a visit to Gen. Randy George, who has been serving as the Army's chief of staff since last September. They tackled a range of topics, from warfighting and professionalism in the Army, to modernizing training and acquisitions, and to lessons learned versus lessons identified. Gen. George reveals his thoughts on how the Army is learning from the war in Ukraine. And they also discussed a new Army initiative called "transforming in contact." PS: We are hiring a membership editor. If you want to play a critical role in driving conversations and debates about national security, you should consider applying: https://apply.workable.com/war-on-the-rocks/j/2F3A361BCE/

Transcribed - Published: 5 February 2024

As Putin throws his forces relentlessly into the meat-grinder of Avdiivka, Mike and Ryan sort through the state of Russia's offensive there, Moscow's efforts to bleed Ukrainian air defense, and Kyiv's success on the Black Sea. They also discuss how Ukraine can defend and rebuild in 2024 so that it can go on the offensive again next year. Ryan and Mike also return to Europe's ongoing failure to muster the political will and resources needed to do its part. And listeners will be treated to a rant from Ryan on the turmoil over President Zelenksy's reported decision to fire Gen. Zaluzhny.

Transcribed - Published: 30 January 2024

What is the value of a U.S. aircraft carrier? How are the Department of Defense and the U.S. Navy held to financial account? And why does the Department of Defense keep failing its audit? Ryan sat down with Russell Rumbaugh, Assistant Secretary of the Navy (Financial Management & Comptroller), to discuss the budget, its relationship with the comprehensive ship building review, the ongoing challenges with building more ships and submarines, and the need to ramp up munition production.

Transcribed - Published: 25 January 2024