Ukraine Goes into Kursk: A Dose of the "Russia Contingency" with Michael Kofman

War on the Rocks

News, Politics

4.6 • 1.1K Ratings

🗓️ 10 August 2024

⏱️ 24 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

This is part one of a two-parter on Ukraine's operation into the Russian oblast of Kursk and it's from our members-only show, "The Russia Contingency" with Michael Kofman. In this episode Mike discusses this fast developing situation with his colleague at the Carnegie Endowment, Dara Massicot. If you're a member, you can listen to part two. Become member at: https://warontherocks.com/membership.

Transcript

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0:00.0	You are listening to the War on the Rocks podcast on on strategy, defense, and foreign affairs.
0:13.9	My name's Ryan Evans, I'm the founder of Worn the Rocks.
0:16.7	This is a special preview of one of our members-only shows that you may have heard of called
0:20.2	The Russia Contingency with Michael Kaufman.
0:22.8	In this episode, Mike talks with Darumassakat
0:24.8	about Ukraine's offensive operation
0:26.5	into the Russian Oblast of Kursk.
0:28.6	This is part one of that conversation.
0:30.6	Part two can be available to you if you become a member at war on the rocks.com
0:35.0	slash membership. Enjoy the show. Welcome back to another episode of the Russia Contingency. Today with me I have a good
0:56.9	colleague Anne friend Dar Masaka. She is also a senior fellow at Carney Endowment, works in the same program as I do.
1:07.0	And although we talk quite a bit, actually since August, I think we've both been away and I've and I have done on the
1:15.8	podcast recently so I thought it'd be great to have her back and today we are
1:19.2	going to talk about the Ukrainian incursion into Kursk or Kursk offensive operation.
1:26.6	We're going to try to figure out what we know so far, discuss what it means, what to look for, and give our takes, maybe exchange views on how
1:36.2	it's unfolded so far and what the implications might be.
1:39.2	Dara, it's great to have you back on the podcast and it's been too long. Well thanks for having me back. Yeah so let's dig into it. We're recording this on Friday morning. Right now it's August 9th. So this operation started August 6th. We're looking at it basically on day 4. Big caveat. Most visual evidence shows up at least a day, two days late from an operation like this.
2:07.1	These things tend to be very dynamic at the beginning and so pretty much everything you're
2:10.9	seeing has a fairly significant lag effect and you've got a lot of
2:14.2	fragmented data. Is that fair to say Dar that, you know, we have to be honest and up front that whatever
2:18.7	we know publicly, it's probably dated by at least a day.
2:23.6	Right, I think the big takeaways we can deduce from what we see,
	...

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