4.6 β’ 1.1K Ratings
ποΈ 5 May 2025
β±οΈ 41 minutes
ποΈ Recording | iTunes | RSS
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Michael Kofman and Dara Massicot join Ryan to unpack how the Trump administration's ambitious peace efforts have collided with reality. They dive into how strategic calculations, politics, military conditions, and societal developments have shaped diplomacy, assessing how various pressures and intentions could redefine β or derail β pathways toward ending the war.
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0:00.0 | You are listening to the War on the Rocks podcast on Strategy, Defense, and Foreign Affairs. |
0:13.9 | My name is Ryan Evans. I'm the founder of War in the Rocks. And I'm sitting here with two guests, |
0:17.8 | and we're going to be talking about the sort of fumbling and stumbling |
0:20.8 | to the ever-elusive peace deal between Russia and Ukraine. I'm sitting here with my friends |
0:26.5 | who are just about to introduce themselves right now. Darrah Massaco, senior fellow Carnegie Endowment |
0:32.0 | for International Peace. Mike Admon, also senior fellow Carnegie Endowment, same program as Darrow. |
0:37.0 | Thank you both for taking time out of your weekend to talk about this. |
0:41.6 | Let's step back and discuss how we got here. Let's say post-disastrous Zelensky meeting at the Oval Office, |
0:48.9 | how we sort of got to where we are today. Just a little narrative, a little chronology. |
0:53.2 | Let me try to do a very |
0:54.6 | reference. So immediately after that meeting, I think Zianski goes to London. Brits meet with him |
0:59.7 | and then try to smooth things out with the United States. And they sort of act for lack of a better |
1:04.2 | term as a sort of whisper. I've heard the term marriage counselor thrown around by Europeans, |
1:09.3 | but essentially the British and the French |
1:10.8 | start trying to figure out how they make this work. And things do begin to smooth out a couple |
1:15.6 | weeks later. The U.S. cuts off military support and intelligence to Ukraine, but then restores it. |
1:20.7 | Zaidiansky starts to kind of say the right things, give the right signals. Behind the scenes, |
1:25.0 | they're still negotiating the minerals deal, which is really a series |
1:27.5 | of deals. It's actually three different agreements. And those things are being handled by technical |
1:31.7 | folks. And in the meanwhile, you have a whole separate parallel effort, I guess led by Whitkoff |
1:38.0 | with Russia. And these negotiations start taking off with Russia. It's not really shallow diplomacy. |
1:42.2 | It's more like two parallel tracks. |
... |
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