Conversations with Bill Kristol

What has the Supreme Court done—and not done—to check the Trump administration so far? What are the broader political and constitutional implications? What might the next months and years look like? To discuss these questions we are joined, again, by Ryan Goodman, a law professor at New York University, former special counsel in the Department of Defense, and co-editor of NYU Law’s Just Security blog. According to Goodman, “there are many danger signs coming from the US Supreme Court that they [are] not ready to meet the moment.” As he explains, to this point, the Supreme Court has deferred to the Trump administration on a broad range of issues, including, for example, the use of the military domestically and the militarization of ICE. Goodman also describes the increasing weaponization of the Department of Justice against political opponents. Amidst uncertainty about how the Supreme Court will respond to executive actions that ignore constitutional authorities, and in the absence of pushback by Congress, Goodman argues that civil society must step up to defend the rule of law.

Transcribed - Published: 3 July 2025

Where do things stand in the war—and what will the future of Iran look like when the fighting stops? To discuss these questions, we are joined again by Ray Takeyh, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations and one of the leading historians and analysts of Iran. Takeyh emphasizes that the Iranian leaders are “traumatized and stunned,” and that “the regime is facing a vast array of problems” from widespread discontent among the people to serious divisions within the elites. He explains that the extent of the apparent collaboration with Israel, including at the highest levels of the state, is itself evidence of the grave threat to the regime from within. Cautioning that much remains unknown and will be dependent on the course of the war, Takeyh reflects on possible paths forward for the regime. “I have always believed that the post Islamic Republic Iran will be substantially better than the Islamic Republic,” he explains. “But the principal challenge moving forward after this is what does a weaker Islamic Republic mean for regional security? Regimes that lose wars tend to behave in very unpredictable ways. Because what the regime will have to do is reconstitute the fear barrier that it relies on for its rule at home.”

Transcribed - Published: 19 June 2025

What have we learned so far about Donald Trump’s approach to the Middle East in his second term? In this Conversation, Eric Edelman, former ambassador to Turkey and Finland and Under Secretary of Defense, shares his perspective on the president’s recent trip to Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE. He presents a tour d’horizon of the highly dynamic and complex situation in the Middle East, not only covering the Gulf States but also Turkey, Syria, Iran, and Israel. Edelman argues Trump has not been guided by any doctrine or coherent strategy in his foreign policy: “He really believes in transactionalism as a way of life.” The upshot so far, per Edelman, has been “a very haphazard, incoherent policy in a very dangerous world."

Transcribed - Published: 21 May 2025

What have we learned about the White House in Trump's second term? How are decisions made in the most consequential areas of national security? During the past week, Trump fired National Security Advisor Mike Waltz. To discuss this and many other matters, we are joined again by John Bolton, who served as National Security Advisor in the Trump White House from 2018 to 2019. Bolton shares the perspective of an insider who understands Donald Trump—and government at a high level of granularity. He describes Waltz’s dismissal as emblematic of a White House in chaos. As he puts it: “more and more decisions will be made in the White House and fewer decisions in the cabinet in the second Trump term than in recent presidencies. That’s the clear message going ahead.” Assessing the price we pay, Bolton states: “[Trump] is burning through decades of effort to build up goodwill, trust, faith, reliance on America. Our friends all over the world are saying, 'You’ve taken leave of your senses.’"

Transcribed - Published: 6 May 2025

Where do things stand a month after Trump's “Liberation Day” tariffs and the announcements that have followed? In a thoughtful and wide-ranging Conversation, former Treasury Secretary Lawrence H. Summers shares his perspective on the economic and political consequences of the tariffs—and the threats to financial markets. According to Summers, our difficulties now go beyond any individual economic policy pronouncement by the Trump administration: “The issue is becoming, in a meta sense, confidence in the United States. When people go in and out of being confident in you, that is alarming. It’s the kind of thing that in a developing country, you’d ask yourself whether they’re going to have to have an IMF program within a few months. We’re too big for an IMF program, but we're at risk of a major kind of a financial incident.” Warning that the administration already has “done a substantial amount of damage,” Summers argues that “we may work our way through this, but only if there’s very substantial alarm and very substantial reversal.”

Transcribed - Published: 29 April 2025

What are the likely effects of Trump’s tariffs, and what do they mean for the US economy? To discuss, we are joined again by Harvard economist Jason Furman, who was Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers in President Obama’s second term. According to Furman, Trump’s tariffs represent an enormous "shock to the system” likely to produce both short- and long-term economic pain. Furman considers both the direct and indirect effects of Trump’s policies, including the effects of uncertainty on the economy. Finally, Kristol and Furman discuss whether Congress could push back against an economic agenda likely, in Furman’s words, to produce “many more losers than winners.”

Transcribed - Published: 9 April 2025

Where do things stand five months after Election Day? According to veteran reporter and commentator A.B. Stoddard, Trump’s second term has been far more radical than many anticipated. As she puts it: “The more power you give [Trump], the more he’ll take. And the less pushback that he gets, the freer he is. So I think what we’ve seen in the last couple of months is that he’s been given permission and he will take it. That’s the way Trump is…. So people need to not underestimate the fact that things could be much, much worse in three months or a year.” In a wide-ranging assessment of the state of our politics, Stoddard shares her perspective on the Trump agenda, the Republican Party’s acquiescence, and the situation of the Democratic Party opposing Trump. Stoddard and Kristol also consider how opponents of Trump might chart alternative paths forward in the months and years ahead.

Transcribed - Published: 3 April 2025

Where do things stand fifty days into Trump’s second term? According to Georgetown Law professor Steve Vladeck: “We’ve never seen such a wholesale attempt on the part of a president [to] hollow out the executive branch [and] install loyalists in all of the relevant positions of government.” Amid a blizzard of lawsuits in response to Trump’s executive actions, Vladeck analyzes whether and to what extent the courts, Congress, and other institutions might contain the Trump administration by asserting their own Constitutional prerogatives to defend the rule of law. While he notes that courts may push back on certain executive actions on First Amendment and other grounds, Vladeck argues that the courts simply were not set up to handle the kind of large-scale litigation that might follow from mass terminations in the civil service, for instance. This is a must-watch Conversation for anyone interested in understanding how the separation of powers, a bedrock of our constitutional government, is playing out in our institutions in real time.

Transcribed - Published: 13 March 2025

Where do things stand on the third anniversary of the war in Ukraine? What is the situation in European politics after the German elections? How should we think about the continued challenge of countering autocracy at home and abroad? To discuss these questions we are joined again by Pulitzer Prize-winning historian Anne Applebaum. As Applebaum explains, despite difficulties on the battlefield, Ukraine is holding up: “The [Russians] cannot win… without Trump." And she argues that the outcome of the German elections present reasons for optimism that a European "coalition of the willing" may be emerging to seriously counter the Russian threat and support Ukraine. Applebaum also shares her perspective on the first month of the Trump administration. As she puts it: “The idea that you have to take control of state institutions and you have to make them work for you personally rather than for the people…. This is something that every illiberal leader elected and unelected sooner or later thinks they need to do. [But] this is more radical than anything any [contemporary] European far-right party has ever done.”

Transcribed - Published: 25 February 2025

What is the role of social media in our politics today? To discuss, we are joined by Renée DiResta, a leading analyst of the internet and its effects on politics and society. As DiResta explains, social media platforms today are significant sources of political power that are fundamentally different from traditional media like newspapers, radio, and television. Social media makes users active participants in the consumption of information and algorithms have reinforced the polarization in our politics: “Algorithms key off of things that you like, things that people who are like you like. And then when that happens, you are put into these buckets, where you’re going to see more of a certain type of thing, so those identities are reinforced.” DiResta considers the ways in which Elon Musk has changed X (formerly Twitter), the power of controlling a social media platform, and the importance of this new phenomenon in politics at home and abroad. DiResta also shares her perspective on positive and negative effects of social media, from the highlighting of new perspectives to the proliferation of conspiracy theories.

Transcribed - Published: 14 February 2025

What have we learned from the first two weeks of the Trump administration’s approach to executive actions? Ryan Goodman is a professor of law at New York University, former special counsel in the Department of Defense, and co-editor of NYU Law’s Just Security blog. According to Goodman, behind the Trump administration’s Executive Orders and actions is a claim of executive authority “different in character than anything that’s preceded it.” On issues such as birthright citizenship, TikTok, and immigration, the Trump administration has claimed the right to override Congressional statutes, while Congress, so far at least, has been hesitant to assert its own constitutional powers. Goodman shares his perspective on what has transpired at the FBI, the Department of Justice, and the military, and explains what to look for in the weeks and months ahead in regard to tests of resilience of these institutions and, more broadly, the separation of powers in our constitutional government.

Transcribed - Published: 5 February 2025

What will immigration policy look like in the second Trump administration? How will it affect the country? To discuss, we are joined by Aaron Reichlin-Melnick, a leading expert on immigration and Senior Fellow at the American Immigration Council. In a wide-ranging analysis that covers the complex situation at the border—as well as the political and policy choices facing Trump and Congress—Reichlin-Melnick considers possible paths forward on immigration for the Trump administration and for the country. Reichlin-Melnick notes that while the president has wide authority to change immigration policies through executive action (particularly on legal immigration), some of Trump’s promises like mass deportations face significant political and legal constraints. This is a must-watch and nuanced Conversation alive to the complexities and real-world consequences of a pressing subject that has become so central to our politics.

Transcribed - Published: 15 January 2025

Donald Trump will face major geopolitical challenges when he takes office. In this Conversation, Eric Edelman, former ambassador to Turkey and Finland and Under Secretary of Defense, shares his perspective. As he explains, Trump will face major decisions on all areas of the geopolitical landscape early in his term. Edelman argues that Israel’s military successes have weakened Iran’s “axis of resistance” and opened up new opportunities—but also raise the threat of Iranian nuclear breakout. Meanwhile, the war in Ukraine rages, the situation in Europe remains uncertain, and China’s military buildup increases. To meet the threats around the globe, we need to build up the military and defense industrial base, embrace American leadership, and strengthen our alliances. Will the Trump Administration do so?

Transcribed - Published: 21 December 2024

How well might the political and legal norms of constitutional government fare in the second Trump administration? To discuss, we are joined by Jack Goldsmith, distinguished law professor at Harvard and former Assistant Attorney General in the Office of Legal Counsel. As Goldsmith explains, Trump has expressed ambitions to exercise unprecedented control over the federal government, with plans to change the Civil Service and administrative agencies, and wield the pardon power aggressively, among other methods. While emphasizing the broad powers the president has to shape policy and personnel, Goldsmith discusses the future of checks and balances that protect the rule of law. To preserve the guardrails of government, Goldsmith emphasizes the role and responsibility of Congress, political appointees, and bureaucrats maintaining fidelity to constitutional duties.

Transcribed - Published: 12 December 2024

What should we expect in Donald Trump’s second term? To discuss, we are joined by John Bolton, who served as National Security Advisor in the Trump White House from 2018 to 2019 and with distinction in many prior Republican administrations. Drawing on insights from working closely with Trump in his first term, Bolton shares his perspective on what the second term might look like. Bolton argues Trump selected his cabinet nominees for “fealty” rather than competence—and he discusses the politicization and chaos in government agencies that could result. Bolton also considers the role of the Senate as a potential check on the president, and reflects more broadly on Trump’s approach to the presidency.

Transcribed - Published: 28 November 2024

What do the results of the 2024 elections tell us about the state of American politics? Where might we be in 2026 and 2028? To discuss, we are joined again by Ron Brownstein, a senior editor at The Atlantic and a senior political analyst at CNN. According to Brownstein, the presidential election was a “national verdict of voters [who] were dissatisfied with what they got over the past four years. And whatever doubts they had about the alternative seemed to them less risky than continuing on the course that we are on.” As Brownstein explains, the data show many of Trump’s own voters had serious concerns about Trump and his policies. To this end, he argues that elections in 2026 and 2028 likely will turn on whether Trump pursues extreme and unpopular policies that cater to his base or governs in a way that appeals to the broader electorate.

Transcribed - Published: 9 November 2024

Where does the race stand two weeks before Election Day?    To discuss, we are joined by Ronald Brownstein, a senior editor at The Atlantic and a senior political analyst at CNN.  According to Brownstein, the election is “closely balanced on the knife’s edge” and very subtle shifts among coalitions in the swing states easily could change the outcome. Brownstein shares his perspective on possible paths to victory for each candidate based on the current data, and what we ought to look for on the campaign trail and in the polling during the last days of the campaign.  Following the election, Brownstein will rejoin us for a special Conversation to analyze and reflect on what the 2024 returns reveal about the electorate—and what we can learn from these trends about how our politics might play out in the years ahead.

Transcribed - Published: 23 October 2024

How would the economy do under a Trump or Harris administration? To discuss, we are joined again by the distinguished Harvard economist Jason Furman, who was Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers in President Obama’s second term. Furman shares his perspective on a wide variety of subjects including tariffs, trade policy with allies and adversaries, the dangers of a politicized Fed, inflation, and immigration. Forecasting economic policies under the two potential administrations, Furman contends that Kamala Harris would track Biden’s policies to some degree, but “her instincts are just a little bit more towards wanting to pal around with CEOs than labor leaders relative to Joe Biden.” As for Trump, Furman argues that “there’s one Trump, with responsible advisors, who doesn’t do anything he says on the campaign and things turn out basically fine. There’s another Trump who does follow through, and that could be a downside for growth and a large downside in terms of higher inflation.”

Transcribed - Published: 9 October 2024

We face an ever more dangerous geopolitical environment. In this Conversation, Princeton professor and AEI nonresident senior fellow Aaron Friedberg analyzes America’s foreign policy challenges and considers how a Harris or Trump administration might approach the threats we face. According to Friedberg, the cooperation among Russia, China, Iran, North Korea “has grown more and more sophisticated and complex” in recent times, making the challenges in the Middle East, Eastern Europe, and Southeast Asia more difficult to address—as well as more interrelated. Friedberg argues that the volatility in American domestic politics makes predicting the American approach to countering these threats increasingly uncertain. As he puts it, “If Trump comes back, the range of possible policies in each of these areas is just much wider than would have been typically the case in the past”—and a key question with Harris is "To what extent does she share [Biden’s] gut instinct regarding American leadership?"

Transcribed - Published: 1 October 2024

How might Tuesday’s debate shape the race in the weeks ahead? How can Harris capitalize on her performance? Will the debate affect the results in November? With less than eight weeks to Election Day, veteran Democratic strategist James Carville shares his advice to the Harris campaign and analysis of the race. As he puts it: “People still, for better or worse, know Trump. [Harris] had a great debate, a great convention, but still has some more to fill out here.” According to Carville, now Harris might benefit from giving speeches on issues from the economy to foreign policy. The Democratic base, he argues, “will allow her great leeway in appealing to more unaligned voters—and Trump doesn’t have that.” Carville and Kristol also discuss whether another debate will happen, Trump’s struggles to focus on issues, and possible key moments ahead in an extraordinary campaign.

Transcribed - Published: 12 September 2024

Where do things stand in the race after the Democratic convention and before the presidential debate? When veteran political strategist Doug Sosnik joined us the day after Biden’s withdrawal from the race he explained why the next month could be decisive in the fight to define Harris. Reflecting on the first five weeks of the campaign, Sosnik argues that she has been successful: “so far Harris is winning the battle about the campaign being about change, and she is the change candidate—making the campaign about the future and not about the past.” However, he cautions that the race remains very close. As he puts it: “Harris is still running behind the Biden-Harris numbers in 2020, and measurably behind. So, she does have more ground she’s going to need to gain.” Sosnik shares his in-depth analysis of what the campaigns might do going forward, why the upcoming debate may be the most consequential in contemporary history, and the current dynamics in battleground states where the race will be decided.

Transcribed - Published: 28 August 2024

Where do things stand in the race now that the matchup is set? According to veteran Democratic strategist James Carville, the replacement of Joe Biden by Kamala Harris has improved prospects for the Democrats—though “not as much as some people think.” As he puts it: “It’s like I tell people, if you have an infected wisdom tooth and you go to the dentist and they pull it out, you feel on top of the world—[but] God, you really don’t feel any better than you would if you never had the infected wisdom tooth.” In a race that may be won at the margins, as in 2016 and 2020, Carville explains that Harris must define herself and her candidacy successfully where she still isn’t well known. According to Carville, she has the opportunity to brand Trump as “past, yesterday, and stale”—but the Harris-Walz campaign must have a forward-looking message and run on concrete policy proposals. Carville also discusses the selection of Walz, the mood at Mar-a-Lago since Biden’s withdrawal from the race, how the Trump strategy against Harris might develop, and offers advice about whether to have and how to handle a Harris-Trump debate.

Transcribed - Published: 7 August 2024

The withdrawal of Joe Biden from the presidential race three weeks after his disastrous debate performance, followed by the swift decision by Democrats to select Kamala Harris as the presumptive nominee, leaves us in uncharted waters. According to veteran political strategist Doug Sosnik, the broad contours of the 2024 election remain: “It’s a narrowly divided country. It’s a fairly even race. But Trump has the advantage in an Electoral College system that [today] favors Republicans.” Yet this election has been like no other. In this Conversation, Sosnik shares his analysis and practical advice for the next four weeks and the next four months. Sosnik explains why the next month may prove decisive. Each campaign now is racing to define Harris, and the stakes of the Democratic convention in August are higher than they have been in many decades. In the weeks ahead, Harris faces the daunting challenge of both running on strengths of the Biden-Harris record and presenting a case for the future that is her own—all as she decides on the most effective case to prosecute against Trump. This will not take place in a vacuum. At the same time, Harris will face an onslaught from the Trump campaign, which has done little advertising during the past weeks and has a war chest to spend on defining her. Sosnik warns that, to win, it is essential for Harris to avoid the peril of presidential candidates like Mitt Romney, John Kerry, and Bob Dole, who have allowed their opponents to define them before their nominations. As Sosnik puts it: “Success always begets more success in politics. So the more successful she is at consolidating the party, demonstrating her capacity to be the nominee, the more successful she is on the run-up to the convention, the more likely the convention is to be a success.” To that end, he argues that Harris's decisions over the next weeks—about her campaign staff, defining her vision, organizing a successful Democratic convention, selecting a strong vice-presidential candidate, etc.—likely will determine her prospects in November.

Transcribed - Published: 23 July 2024

What should we make of Trump’s plans for the federal bureaucracy in a second term? In recent days, there has been extensive reporting about “Project 2025,” an agenda and road map that openly aims to politicize the civil service and render it more compliant with the executive. In this Conversation, we are joined by University of Pennsylvania political scientist John DiIulio, one of the leading experts on the civil service and bureaucracy in America. DiIulio takes the Project 2025 proposal seriously. But he argues that attacks on the permanent bureaucracy as a “Deep State" are misleading, because the federal agencies all are accountable and subject to Congressional oversight in meaningful ways. DiIulio considers the threat of a second Trump administration prioritizing loyalty over competency in the bureaucracy, the history of the civil service in the US, and what meaningful reforms of the bureaucracy might look like. DiIulio argues that above all we should focus on reforming the use of federal contractors, which remains the most unaccountable part of American government.

Transcribed - Published: 9 July 2024

What is the state of the economy today and where might it be at the time of the November elections? To discuss, we are joined again by the distinguished Harvard economist Jason Furman, who was deputy director of the National Economic Council during the Financial Crisis and then served as Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers in President Obama’s second term. As Furman puts it, in spite of the inflation of the past few years and other longer-term challenges, “We really are right now economically the envy of the world. So I think it makes a lot of sense that we worry about our problems and figure out what we can do to make it even better.” In a wide-ranging analysis, Furman shares his perspective on inflation, employment, debt, and both Biden and Trump economic policies regarding immigration, tariffs, and other questions. While highlighting the strength of the US economy today, Furman notes how public policy choices and domestic and world events could affect us in the long term.

Transcribed - Published: 25 June 2024

Where do things stand in Ukraine? How are European democracies faring? How should we think about the challenge from autocracies around the globe? To discuss these questions, we are joined again by Pulitzer Prize-winning historian Anne Applebaum. Applebaum shares her perspective on recent developments in Ukraine, Russia, and Europe including the recent EU elections. She points to Ukraine’s continued resilience in the face of serious challenges, and Europe and America’s support for Ukraine in spite of domestic pressures against it. But she notes that we only have begun to think seriously about the challenges from autocracies, and that much more needs to be done to defend democracy at home and abroad. As Applebaum puts it: “Communist China, nationalist Russia, theocratic Iran, Bolivarian socialist Venezuela, whatever North Korea is… these aren’t countries that share an ideology... but they do share a common interest—undermining us—and by us, I mean America, Europe, the liberal world, the democratic world.”

Transcribed - Published: 14 June 2024

Where do things stand in the race as we head into the summer? According to veteran Democratic strategist James Carville: “It’s clearly very close. There clearly can be events that can impact the outcome. But we’re headed to an election that not many people are very excited about.” Carville argues that the Biden campaign needs a message on the economy that is forward-looking, and suggests it isn’t enough for the president to frame the election as a referendum on Trump. Carville considers how abortion and unpopularity of the MAGA movement are potentially winning issues that the Biden campaign might use more effectively. But he notes the Trump operation has been more disciplined than in 2016 or in 2020, and reflects on the limitations to date of Biden’s campaign as incumbent. Kristol and Carville also consider how the outcome of Trump’s New York trial, a debate in June (if it happens!), the conventions, and other upcoming events could shape the race.

Transcribed - Published: 30 May 2024

Is today's anti-liberalism a new phenomenon in American politics? What might earlier eras in US history have to teach us? To discuss these questions, we are joined, again, by Robert Kagan, the historian and senior fellow at the Brookings Institution. Drawing on his new book, Rebellion: How Antiliberalism Is Tearing America Apart—Again, Kagan argues that we “don’t realize that the [anti-liberal] movement we’re looking at today has been visible in every generation since the founding.” Kagan draws particular attention to the 1920s, when anti-immigration sentiment, white identity politics, and sympathy for authoritarian figures were prevalent in America. Kagan notes that the MAGA movement can be understood as a part of a long history of anti-liberalism that runs counter to the tradition of the founders, yet remains endemic to American democracy. Liberal democracy in America thus needs to be fought for and cannot simply be assumed.

Transcribed - Published: 15 May 2024

Where do things stand in Ukraine? How will the recently-passed aid package help Ukraine on the battlefield? How does the war in Ukraine relate to rising threats from adversaries around the globe? To discuss these questions we are joined again by Fred Kagan, director of the Critical Threats Project at the American Enterprise Institute. Kagan explains that Ukraine continues to face serious difficulties, in part because of a critical shortage of weapons as a result of the delay in US support. Yet the recently-passed aid package should bolster defenses against Russia’s anticipated assault this summer, and potentially help Ukraine to make gains in a counteroffensive early next year. Reflecting on the war and the world situation more broadly, Kagan points to the rising alliances among Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea as a comprehensive threat to the free world. As he puts it: “These countries disagree about a lot of things. They don’t share a common ideology. But they do share a common enemy: us.… We have to recognize [it] is an entente that aims to take us down, and we have to be resisting every part of it.”

Transcribed - Published: 1 May 2024

What was it like serving in the Trump administration—and what might a second Trump term look like? To discuss these questions, we are joined by Mark Esper, Secretary of Defense from 2019-2020. In this Conversation, Esper considers Ukraine, China, and other foreign policy challenges facing the United States, and reflects on his experience leading the Department of Defense during the Trump administration. Esper discusses accomplishments of American foreign policy during those years, but also raises deep concern about Trump’s attempts to politicize the military and his placing unsuitable personnel at the center of key foreign policy decision-making. And he argues that these tendencies, which were kept partially under wraps in the first term, could prove to be more alarming in a second—especially considering Trump’s increasing priority of selecting personnel based on personal loyalty. In a time of what he calls “great power competition with Russia and China,” Esper argues it is vital to have a strong foreign policy team in place—and dangerous to have a bad one.

Transcribed - Published: 18 April 2024

Where do things stand in the 2024 race? What campaign strategies might increase Joe Biden’s chances? How might the economy, the border, wars in Europe and the Middle East, Trump's trials, and third-party campaigns affect the race? To discuss these questions, we are joined by David Axelrod, chief strategist for Barack Obama’s presidential campaigns in 2008 and 2012. Axelrod explains: “I would not count on the shock and dismay of people over the fact that [Trump] is under 91 criminal indictments, or that he engineered an insurrection, and so on. I think you’re going to get that [vote] for free, but it’s not enough to win.” According to Axelrod, the Biden campaign also should not be complacent in thinking that touting Biden’s achievements during his first term will be enough. Instead, he argues, Biden needs to focus on the economic challenges people face today—while framing the election as a contrast between Biden and Trump, and not simply as a referendum on Biden’s presidency.

Transcribed - Published: 3 April 2024

What do Joe Biden's successes, failures, and poll numbers reveal about the state of the Democratic Party today? In an era of polarization, can a spirit of moderation and bipartisanship be rediscovered? To discuss these questions, we are joined by Joe Klein, the veteran reporter, author, and analyst of American politics. Klein reflects on the changes of the Democratic Party over recent decades, including his perspective on the elevation of identity politics over unity. According to Klein, the Biden administration has been reasonably effective, but often has not been able to move the Democrats, or the country, beyond narrow interest-group politics. In the face of demagoguery from the Trump movement, Klein calls for a reinvigorated politics of moderation that can draw on the best traditions of both parties. Klein also shares fascinating personal reflections about reporting on and interacting with leading figures including Bill and Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama.

Transcribed - Published: 15 March 2024

Two years into the war, where do things stand in Ukraine? What are Vladimir Putin’s war aims and how is attempting to undermine American commitment and resolve? To discuss these questions, we are joined by Timothy Snyder, a Yale historian and leading expert on Russia, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe. Noting impressive successes in recent weeks despite the lack of weapons supply from the United States, Snyder argues that “this is still a war that Ukraine can win. But it depends upon whether they have allies who are capable of seeing the political stakes and capable of behaving in a way which is consistent with simple military logic, which is what do you need to do to help your ally to win.” Persuading Americans that Ukraine cannot win, or even that a Russian victory would be preferable, is an integral part of Vladimir Putin’s war strategy. According to Snyder, Putin knows he cannot win on the battlefield if the West musters its collective energy to Ukrainian victory, but believes he can win by influencing our political debates about international engagement and support for the war. Defeating Russia, Snyder explains, is vital not only for Ukraine, but also for America and our allies. Kristol and Snyder also discuss how understanding fascism might help us to comprehend contemporary Russian politics and other political developments around the world.

Transcribed - Published: 8 March 2024

Where does the 2024 presidential race stand? What are the strengths and weaknesses of the candidates, and how might such an unpopular rematch play out? What could happen if it's not Biden and Trump? To discuss these questions, we are joined again by veteran political strategist Doug Sosnik, former political director in the Clinton White House and author of this week’s important New York Times op-ed, “Biden Can’t Count on Trump’s Unpopularity Anymore.” According to Sosnik, a Biden campaign strategy of aiming to “disqualify" Trump in the minds of voters is insufficient: Biden also must make an affirmative case for a second term while overcoming doubts about his age and health. Because the polarization in the country remains so intense, another Biden v. Trump race would be a world of “high floors and low ceilings.” According to Sosnik, Trump—now slightly ahead in the polls—is "bumping up to the high end of his ceiling,” while “Biden is bumping up to the bottom of his floor.” Kristol and Sosnik also consider the possible effects of a third-party challenge in a polarized environment, and how the race might take shape if either Trump or Biden is not renominated.

Transcribed - Published: 15 February 2024

Summing up the state of the 2024 race as we head toward the South Carolina primaries, veteran Republican pollster Whit Ayres says if the election were held today “Trump would win … in the Electoral College.” Yet despite Trump’s quasi-incumbency, 40-45% of the Republican primary electorate have voted for other candidates to date. According to Ayres, Trump suffers from some major weaknesses as a candidate, which leave an opening for Nikki Haley—and portend problems for Trump in a general election. But Biden may be even weaker. As Ayres puts it, “the vast majority of Americans, including a vast majority of Democrats, think Biden is just too old to serve effectively…and virtually no one in either party thinks Kamala Harris is ready for prime time.” Despite the appearance of stability in the race—the increasing likelihood of a 2020 rematch—Ayres notes that a full 2/3 of Americans are unhappy with the choice between Biden and Trump. Kristol and Ayres consider how, beneath the surface, the 2024 contest may be unstable—with the potential for domestic and geopolitical events to intervene, and third-party challenges that could upend the race.

Transcribed - Published: 2 February 2024

What are the latest developments in the US-China relationship? What can we learn from recent elections in Taiwan? How does the CCP view the wars in Ukraine and in the Middle East? To discuss these questions, we are joined again by Princeton professor Aaron Friedberg. Considering the situation in Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and Eastern Europe, Friedberg argues that we face distinct but overlapping challenges from “increasingly aggressive authoritarian powers.” According to Friedberg, China has supported our rivals out of the belief that “conflict wears us down, deflects our attention from the Indo-Pacific region, and contributes to divisions emerging in this country over foreign policy in a way we haven’t seen in some years.” Kristol and Friedberg also discuss the deepening divisions in the country over foreign policy, and consider how a Republican or Democratic victory in November could affect the global security situation.

Transcribed - Published: 19 January 2024

Three months after October 7 and amidst the ongoing war in Gaza, what is the national mood in Israel? How are the partisan divisions which gripped Israel in recent years playing out in wartime? How will this war change Israel? To discuss these questions, we are joined by Peter Berkowitz, a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution and longtime analyst of Israeli politics and society. Having just returned from Israel, Berkowitz observes that the enormity of the Hamas attack within Israel’s borders threatens a core principle of Zionism, which promised that Jews would be safe in their own homeland. In the face of this, Israelis have displayed a remarkable unity around the cause of defeating Hamas and returning the hostages. Yet the partisan divisions that existed before the war persist, along with a deep trauma and anger stemming from recriminations about the failure to protect the nation from the attack on October 7. Across the political elite and among Israelis more generally, there is a new reckoning about the profound threats Israel faces—not only from Hamas, but also from Hezbollah, and from Tehran.

Transcribed - Published: 5 January 2024

What is anti-Semitism? Why is Israel under attack on college campuses? In this Conversation, released originally in 2014, Bill Kristol spoke with Ruth Wisse, a distinguished professor of Yiddish Literature who taught at Harvard for many years and is one of the world’s leading experts on anti-Semitism. Wisse explains anti-Semitism as a political phenomenon, which she defines as “the political organization of politics against the Jews.” She also shares her perspective on anti-Semitism and anti-Israel animus on college campuses, which has intensified since the Hamas attack on Israel on 10/7.

Transcribed - Published: 14 December 2023

Has Donald Trump changed since he first ran for president in 2015? How is he conducting his campaign now? What might a second Trump term look like? To discuss these questions, we are joined by Jonathan Karl, Chief Washington Correspondent for ABC News and author of Tired of Winning: Donald Trump and the End of the Grand Old Party. Trump’s 2024 campaign is "based on grievance and revenge,” according to Karl. And he is concerned “we’ll have a constitutional crisis from day one,” because many who upheld the rule of law during Trump's first term would not be around in a second. Karl shows how Trump and his closest advisers now are more determined to root out ordinary members of the bureaucracy who oppose Trump—the so-called “Deep State”—and to weaken Republicans who are not Trump acolytes. What could be a defining feature of the second term, Karl explains, is the highest offices of the land being selected based on personal loyalty to Donald Trump rather than on policy experience or competency.

Transcribed - Published: 28 November 2023

To what extent was the Iranian regime involved in Hamas’s attack on Israel? What role are other Iranian proxies such as Hezbollah playing in the conflict—and where do things stand with Iran’s quest for a nuclear weapon? To discuss these questions, we are joined again by Ray Takeyh, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations and one of the leading historians and analysts of Iran. Takeyh explains that the survival of Hamas remains a key strategic goal for Iran in sustaining its “axis of resistance” to threaten Israel. The regime also uses these paramilitary assets including Hezbollah, and especially its nuclear program, to deter the United States and Israel from responding directly against Iran. Takeyh also reflects on Iran’s relationship with Russia and China, its role in the Ukraine War, and the threat to global order posed by the alliance of authoritarian states.

Transcribed - Published: 17 November 2023

Since Hamas launched its brutal attack on Israel on October 7, the Middle East is the site of a new war, which could escalate in ways that are unpredictable and dangerous. In Europe, the Ukraine War grinds on—with an outcome very much in doubt. China continues to threaten US allies in East Asia. Decisions, calculations, and miscalculations made in Washington, Moscow, Tehran, and Beijing could unleash still greater geopolitical and military threats at any moment. As Eric Edelman notes, we are facing “the most complex and dangerous moment in international security since the end of the Second World War.” In this Conversation, Edelman explains how the wars in the Middle East and Europe, as well as tensions in East Asia, are very much interconnected, and threaten American interests and the global order. Faced with this extremely dangerous situation, Edelman argues for a concerted national strategy of supporting American allies in Europe and the Middle East, deterring enemies, and rapidly building up America’s industrial and military strength. Kristol and Edelman also discuss how political disorder at home threatens our ability to deal with the threats we face abroad.

Transcribed - Published: 31 October 2023

What is the state of the economy today? To discuss, we are joined, again, by Harvard economist Jason Furman, who was deputy director of the National Economic Council during the Financial Crisis and then served as Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers in President Obama’s second term. In this Conversation, Furman highlights a significant paradox of the current moment. On one hand, important indicators point to a reasonably strong economy: inflation has been slowing, wages have been rising, and unemployment remains low. On the other hand, Americans remain frustrated about prices and concerned about the future. To Furman, this disconnect speaks to the inability of the data to capture fully the psychological aspects of how inflation and other factors in the economy affect expectations. Furman also shares his concerns about a possible debt crisis if the US cannot get its fiscal house in order.

Transcribed - Published: 11 October 2023

Where do things stand in Ukraine? What are the battlefield results of the Ukrainian counteroffensive so far, and what military and political outcomes might follow? Why should the US and allies continue to support Ukraine? To discuss these questions we are joined again by Fred Kagan, director of the Critical Threats Project at the American Enterprise Institute. Kagan presents a granular account of recent fighting around Eastern Ukraine and Crimea. Noting that Ukraine’s counteroffensive has moved slowly, he explains that the war has not reached a stalemate: “The Russians have not shown the ability to stop the Ukrainians from making advances.” Nonetheless, the situation remains highly uncertain, and Kagan argues there is an urgent need for the US and allies to continue supporting Ukraine. Kristol and Kagan also discuss the debate about the war in the United States, the effects of Russian propaganda, and consider what we’ve learned about Ukrainian and Western resolve from the war.

Transcribed - Published: 29 September 2023

t’s 14 months before the presidential election. With a Trump v. Biden matchup on the horizon, veteran Democratic strategist James Carville begins with a bracing assessment: “If this election was this November…Biden would be a betting underdog.” In this Conversation, James Carville shares his concerns about Biden’s candidacy and his perspective on the race ahead. Should other Democrats challenge Biden and get into the primary race? Is Trump inevitable on the Republican side? What factors might confound our expectations? In this witty, wide-ranging, and thoughtful Conversation—our 250th episode!—Carville and Kristol reflect on these questions and other factors that might upend our politics as we head toward the 2024 presidential election. As we release episode 250, we want to thank our viewers and listeners who have been with us since the beginning—and those who are joining us now. It’s been quite a time. And we have no intention of slowing down.

Transcribed - Published: 14 September 2023

How has American strategic analysis and policy planning toward China developed over the last few years? What parallels can we draw between the early Cold War and America’s geopolitical situation today? How has the war in Ukraine affected US-China competition? To discuss these questions we are joined, again, by Stephen Rosen, Harvard professor emeritus of government. Rosen argues that American government and civil society are beginning to take geopolitical competition with China much more seriously. He notes that, much like the Korean War, Putin’s War in Ukraine could serve as a galvanizing event that could lead the US to make the kind of economic and political commitments necessary to deter China in the long term. In a wide-ranging and historically rich Conversation, Rosen explains why talent, technological innovation, and forward-thinking military planning all will be essential for America to meet the China challenge.

Transcribed - Published: 7 September 2023

Where do things stand in the Republican primary field after the first debate? How strong is Trump? How have the other candidates done so far? How might the Trump trials affect the race as we head into primary season? To discuss these questions, we are joined again by veteran Republican pollster and strategist Whit Ayres. Though Trump remains the strong favorite, Ayres argues that the forthcoming trials make the race more unpredictable than it might seem from simply reading current polling data. Ayres and Kristol also assess the debate performances and candidacies of Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley, Mike Pence, Tim Scott, Chris Christie, and Vivek Ramaswamy—and consider what each might have to do to break out in the race and take on the frontrunner.

Transcribed - Published: 25 August 2023

How significant is the indictment of Donald Trump in the Jan 6 case? How might the case play out in court, and in our politics? According to Ryan Goodman, a professor of law at New York University, former special counsel in the Department of Defense, and co-editor of NYU Law’s Just Security blog, the indictment in the Jan 6 case is a momentous development in the legal maelstrom Trump faces, with potentially significant consequences for the 2024 election. Goodman argues that the Jan 6 case likely will differ dramatically from the Congressional hearings—not least because key figures including former Vice President Mike Pence, Rudy Giuliani, and Mark Meadows will be compelled to testify in court. Goodman suggests that the prosecution may succeed in “flipping” some in Trump’s inner circle to become cooperating witnesses in the case. Cautioning that much remains unknown about the timeline, and the political ramifications of it, Goodman argues it’s plausible a trial and verdict might occur before the 2024 elections.

Transcribed - Published: 4 August 2023

With the recent rollout of ChatGPT and the development of other generative artificial intelligence, the future of AI—and its potential implications for national defense, economics, and society—has become a topic of urgent inquiry. To discuss where things stand with AI, we are joined by Royal Hansen, Vice President of Engineering for Privacy, Safety, and Security at Google. Hansen explains the breakthroughs achieved over the past decade, and the profound implications that powerful software and computing have brought to domains from language translation and music to medicine, national security, logistics, and other dynamic areas of the economy. Noting the potential of AI for use as well as misuse, Hansen explains why we need to develop thoughtful safeguards in the development of new technologies. According to Hansen, already we are benefiting from just the "low hanging fruit"—as seen in the developments in language translation and other generative AI available today. But the potential for breakthroughs in other fields likely are closer than might have been imagined just a few years ago.

Transcribed - Published: 26 July 2023

Where do things stand in the Republican primary field? Is Trump inevitable, or could DeSantis or another candidate prevail? What do voters, donors, and party officials think of the prospects of a Trump v. Biden rematch as we head toward 2024? To discuss these questions, we are joined again by veteran Republican pollster and strategist Whit Ayres. The broad contours of the race on the Republican side, by the numbers, have been remarkably stable since November—and at the same time the months ahead could be unusually unpredictable. According to Ayres, Trump must be considered the favorite to win the Republican nomination especially as Ron DeSantis, who had gained ground after his landslide victory in the Florida gubernatorial race, has faded in recent months. Nonetheless, Ayres contends that Trump’s nomination is far from a foregone conclusion. The current and possible criminal indictments of Trump could matter, and other possible Republicans could gain momentum. Ayres and Kristol consider the prospects of the various Republican candidates, discuss possible surprises over the next six months, as well as the question of Biden's renomination—and reflect on why 2024 may not follow familiar patterns of past elections.

Transcribed - Published: 13 July 2023

How did American politics become so polarized—and what are the key fault lines today? In an evenly-divided electorate, what are the implications for the political parties as we look ahead to 2024 and beyond? Is there a way out of hyper-partisanship and deadlock, and toward moderation? To discuss these questions, we are joined by veteran political strategist Doug Sosnik , former political director for President Bill Clinton and author of a recent memo The Road to a Political Realignment in American Politics. As Sosnik puts it: In a sharp contrast to a previous era, college educated voters are now more likely to identify as Democrats, and those without college degrees – particularly white voters, but increasingly all Americans – support Republicans. Voting at all levels of federal and state elections demonstrates this overwhelming trend of the diploma divide. Whereas in the past the axiom that all politics is local rang true, these days the more accurate truism is that all politics is national. Sosnik draws out the implications of this divide for 2024 and beyond. He argues that the nature and intensity of our polarization means the premium for attracting swing voters, and not repelling them, is greater than ever. In sum, he argues that—more than any other single factor—the voters who decide the next elections will put a premium on candidates who are not crazy!

Transcribed - Published: 27 June 2023