Whit Ayres: Is Trump Inevitable? Do Any of the Other Republicans Have a Chance?

Conversations with Bill Kristol

News, Society & Culture, Government, Politics

4.7 • 1.7K Ratings

🗓️ 13 July 2023

⏱️ 74 minutes

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Summary

Where do things stand in the Republican primary field? Is Trump inevitable, or could DeSantis or another candidate prevail? What do voters, donors, and party officials think of the prospects of a Trump v. Biden rematch as we head toward 2024? To discuss these questions, we are joined again by veteran Republican pollster and strategist Whit Ayres. The broad contours of the race on the Republican side, by the numbers, have been remarkably stable since November—and at the same time the months ahead could be unusually unpredictable. According to Ayres, Trump must be considered the favorite to win the Republican nomination especially as Ron DeSantis, who had gained ground after his landslide victory in the Florida gubernatorial race, has faded in recent months. Nonetheless, Ayres contends that Trump’s nomination is far from a foregone conclusion. The current and possible criminal indictments of Trump could matter, and other possible Republicans could gain momentum. Ayres and Kristol consider the prospects of the various Republican candidates, discuss possible surprises over the next six months, as well as the question of Biden's renomination—and reflect on why 2024 may not follow familiar patterns of past elections.

Transcript

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0:00.0	Hi, welcome back to Conversations. I'm Bill Crystal, and I'm very pleased to be joined
0:19.3	again by WIT AIRs, the veteran Republican poster and strategist, WIT has been involved
0:26.1	in presidential campaigns, a ton of state and of senate and governor and local campaigns
0:31.7	over the last three decades, really one of the most respected and correctly. So analysts
0:39.0	of our political situation as well as someone who's been so involved in electoral politics
0:44.7	also served in state government at a high level in South Carolina and PhD in political
0:50.2	science. I always like to mention that WIT. So, you know, one of the rare PhD in political
0:54.7	science who actually has done something useful over the years. So that's, that's, that's
1:00.8	the way I look at it, you know. Anyway, WIT, thanks for joining me again. Sure, Bill, good
1:05.1	to be with you again. And our last conversation was November, about three weeks after the
1:09.6	election, November 2022, and you straddle really as it stands up well and it's worth people
1:15.1	going back to look at if they wish, if they want to, but you stress the invisible primary
1:19.4	that phrase that's been around sort of political circles for a while, and that that would
1:24.4	be what 2023 was. There no actual votes cast until I think they just scheduled Iowa for
1:29.3	what mid-January, I think January 15th, 2024. So votes were cast in November, 22, votes
1:34.9	will be cast in the primary and January 24, but this invisible primary has been key for the
1:42.0	primary, the presidential primary, presidential races in both parties, the nomination races
1:46.8	over the last several decades. And you called attention to it and said, we should see what happens
1:51.3	and you laid out some of the things that could happen. So we're halfway through the rest,
1:54.6	the invisible primary basically, right? It's halfway through 2023, halfway between November,
1:59.6	22 and January 24. And well, what's happened? What have we learned? Well, we've learned that
2:06.9	different elements of the invisible primary have gone in different directions. The Republican
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