Doug Sosnik on Harris v. Trump: Why the Next Month Matters Most

Conversations with Bill Kristol

News, Society & Culture, Government, Politics

4.7 • 1.7K Ratings

🗓️ 23 July 2024

⏱️ 65 minutes

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Summary

The withdrawal of Joe Biden from the presidential race three weeks after his disastrous debate performance, followed by the swift decision by Democrats to select Kamala Harris as the presumptive nominee, leaves us in uncharted waters. According to veteran political strategist Doug Sosnik, the broad contours of the 2024 election remain: “It’s a narrowly divided country. It’s a fairly even race. But Trump has the advantage in an Electoral College system that [today] favors Republicans.” Yet this election has been like no other. In this Conversation, Sosnik shares his analysis and practical advice for the next four weeks and the next four months. Sosnik explains why the next month may prove decisive. Each campaign now is racing to define Harris, and the stakes of the Democratic convention in August are higher than they have been in many decades. In the weeks ahead, Harris faces the daunting challenge of both running on strengths of the Biden-Harris record and presenting a case for the future that is her own—all as she decides on the most effective case to prosecute against Trump. This will not take place in a vacuum. At the same time, Harris will face an onslaught from the Trump campaign, which has done little advertising during the past weeks and has a war chest to spend on defining her. Sosnik warns that, to win, it is essential for Harris to avoid the peril of presidential candidates like Mitt Romney, John Kerry, and Bob Dole, who have allowed their opponents to define them before their nominations. As Sosnik puts it: “Success always begets more success in politics. So the more successful she is at consolidating the party, demonstrating her capacity to be the nominee, the more successful she is on the run-up to the convention, the more likely the convention is to be a success.” To that end, he argues that Harris's decisions over the next weeks—about her campaign staff, defining her vision, organizing a successful Democratic convention, selecting a strong vice-presidential candidate, etc.—likely will determine her prospects in November.

Transcript

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0:00.0	And the Hi, I'm Bill Crystal. Welcome back to Conversations. I'm very pleased to be
0:18.5	joined again today, I guess for the third time in a year, by Doug Stosnick, and it's a third time in a year by Doug Stosnick and it's a third time because the first two
0:25.3	conversations were so illuminating I think and stand up very well. So Doug was a
0:31.2	senior advisor in the Bill Clinton White House for six years, really the main, I think,
0:37.2	strategist for his 1996 re-election campaign, very prominent subsequently in Democratic circles as well as other things you've done.
0:47.2	Very well respected for the memos you send around and so Doug, thank you so much for joining me again.
0:52.3	Great to be here, Bill. We're speaking. So Doug, thank you so much for joining me again.
0:53.2	Great to be here, Bill.
0:54.4	We're speaking on July 22nd, the day after Joe Biden dropped out.
0:58.1	I told him I wanted him to drop out if he could just hold the dropping out
1:00.8	till Sunday afternoon, so our Monday conversation could be fresh that was good of him to do so I'm grateful to the president for that but so where do we say it I mean we've never seen this before obviously but you you have it you had a very comprehensive I think it's fair to say
1:14.7	analysis of where the race stood before he dropped out and maybe I don't
1:19.0	say a word about that but maybe say a word first about how well and also have
1:21.8	just how much does it change everything does it not
1:24.1	change things much does it change everything how do we think about this?
1:27.2	Well first of all I think this may be the third time I'm doing this because this is the third race we've talked
1:34.4	about in the last 12 months. I mean it's unbelievable how much things have changed.
1:39.0	Well the fact is really if you just take a step back the Democrats are 14 weeks out from an election in which we don't have a nominee.
1:46.8	And that's just going to make it really difficult.
1:49.6	We don't have a nominee 14 weeks out and going into this 14 weeks with the Democrats
1:55.8	have been behind.
1:57.4	So it's a difficult but not impossible situation I think for what appears to be Vice President Harris to be the Democratic nominee, but I think
	...

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