Ray Takeyh on the War between Israel and Iran—and the Future of the Iranian Regime

Conversations with Bill Kristol

News, Society & Culture, Government, Politics

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🗓️ 19 June 2025

⏱️ 56 minutes

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Summary

Where do things stand in the war—and what will the future of Iran look like when the fighting stops? To discuss these questions, we are joined again by Ray Takeyh, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations and one of the leading historians and analysts of Iran. Takeyh emphasizes that the Iranian leaders are “traumatized and stunned,” and that “the regime is facing a vast array of problems” from widespread discontent among the people to serious divisions within the elites. He explains that the extent of the apparent collaboration with Israel, including at the highest levels of the state, is itself evidence of the grave threat to the regime from within. Cautioning that much remains unknown and will be dependent on the course of the war, Takeyh reflects on possible paths forward for the regime. “I have always believed that the post Islamic Republic Iran will be substantially better than the Islamic Republic,” he explains. “But the principal challenge moving forward after this is what does a weaker Islamic Republic mean for regional security? Regimes that lose wars tend to behave in very unpredictable ways. Because what the regime will have to do is reconstitute the fear barrier that it relies on for its rule at home.”

Transcript

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0:00.0	Hi, I'm Bill Crystal. Welcome back to Conversations. I'm very pleased to be joined today, I think, for the third time,
0:26.2	by my friend Ray Takeh, of the Council of Foreign Relations, senior fellow there, former government official for a year or two, I guess, but most importantly, really a leading, maybe,
0:31.8	well, a leading analyst. I'm not going to rank you with your competitors of Iran, Iran-American relations.
0:39.0	And we had a couple of wonderful conversations in 2022 and 2023 at the height of the protests
0:45.5	and what might happen internally.
0:47.5	That you were, I think, those stand up well in the sense that you were both hopeful as a human,
0:53.5	but worried about the ability of the regime to hang on.
0:56.8	And they did, but maybe this is different. I don't know. Anyway, thanks, Ray, for joining me today.
1:02.0	Thanks for having me back. Thank you.
1:04.0	And since things are so fluid and moving so fast in the region, it's 10 a.m. Wednesday, June 18th. And that's when this conversation is taking place.
1:14.2	And just so people know. So, Ray, thanks again for joining me. And I thought, I really want to get your thoughts on everything, but especially on Iran.
1:22.3	I feel like, you know, here in the U.S., people have opinions about the U.S. administration.
1:27.2	Israel's pretty well covered.
1:28.6	There's a ton of Americans who know a lot about Israel and stuff.
1:31.8	I'd say Iran is kind of, of the three parts,
1:34.2	you know, Iran is the blackest box and said,
1:37.5	you have real insight there.
1:39.3	You keep up so well with what's happening there.
1:41.1	We'd obviously read the media and the websites and so forth,
1:43.5	talk to people.
1:51.5	So here we are. Israel's had a pretty impressive assault on Iran. They've been a little unexpected,
1:56.9	and we're a few days in. What do you think is the actual situation, both in terms of the nuclear programs, obviously, in the general military might of Iran, but also the political situation.
	...

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