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Conversations with Bill Kristol

Whit Ayres on the State of the Race: Is It Still Trump's Party?

Conversations with Bill Kristol

Conversations with Bill Kristol

News, Society & Culture, Government, Politics

4.71.7K Ratings

🗓️ 25 August 2023

⏱️ 54 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Where do things stand in the Republican primary field after the first debate? How strong is Trump? How have the other candidates done so far? How might the Trump trials affect the race as we head into primary season? To discuss these questions, we are joined again by veteran Republican pollster and strategist Whit Ayres. Though Trump remains the strong favorite, Ayres argues that the forthcoming trials make the race more unpredictable than it might seem from simply reading current polling data. Ayres and Kristol also assess the debate performances and candidacies of Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley, Mike Pence, Tim Scott, Chris Christie, and Vivek Ramaswamy—and consider what each might have to do to break out in the race and take on the frontrunner.

Transcript

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0:00.0

Hi, I'm Bill Crystal. Welcome back to Conversations. I'm very pleased to be joined again for the

0:20.0

third time this year, actually, by Whit Ayers, those first two conversations on the state of

0:25.4

the Republican Party and presidential, the presidential race in general, were so informative,

0:30.0

honestly, and I think stand up so well that it seemed important to do another one here on

0:33.7

what is it August 24th, which is the president of North Star opinion research, I think it's

0:41.8

called, right? Very well-regarded polling and strategy firm and himself been involved in

0:47.3

elections at every level, including presidential elections, debate crap, which is relevant,

0:52.1

last night's debate, and is widely considered one of our most thoughtful and far-seeing

1:00.8

analysts of current politics. Thanks for joining me again. Bill, great to be with you again.

1:08.7

So we're talking on, as I said, on August 24th, we spoke in November and you,

1:14.8

correctly, said, you know, you thought there was a chance that Trump would pay some price for

1:19.2

having been identified with elections in Iowa, which didn't do too well in November 22,

1:24.2

and that someone probably dissentist could make a bit of a run at him, which he did.

1:28.4

But then that faded. When we spoke last in mid July,

1:33.1

dissentist was fading. It was unclear how far he was going to fade. And Trump was at around 50%

1:39.3

in the polling, and I'd looked just now, and he's now around 52%. So not much has changed on

1:44.5

the Trump side. Dissentist has faded some. Ramaswami has shown up. But a lot has happened,

1:50.8

because we've had what the, the January, the DC indictment of, for January 6th, by Jack Smith,

1:58.4

the Georgia indictment, and then the debate last night. So I don't know. Maybe these things will

2:06.0

have some effect, or other things in the future will have some effect, but sort of striking

2:10.0

that for now. The race seems not that unlike when we spoke, but maybe that's itself a story. So let's

2:15.7

so explain what's what's what's let's begin with Trump. I guess the guy wasn't on stage last night,

...

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