Politics Politics Politics

Georgia’s back in play, and this time it’s John Ossoff’s seat on the line. Everyone remembers how both Senate seats flipped blue in 2020, arguably the biggest down-ballot upset of that cycle. Now Ossoff is up for re-election, and while a lot of people in Democratic circles have high hopes for him, I’m not one of them. I think he’s competent, but in a low-turnout election, he’s vulnerable — especially against a Republican who can straddle the MAGA base and suburban swing voters. And the one guy who could have done that with ease? Brian Kemp. But Kemp says he’s out.That opens the door to speculation — and apparently, to Derek Dooley. I didn’t believe it at first. Dooley is a football coach. He’s never held elected office, never coached a team in Georgia, and hasn’t been politically active in any public sense. But people in Kemp’s orbit kept saying his name. Supposedly, he’s a close family friend. That’s fine. It just doesn’t make him Senate material. Especially not in a race where Georgia Republicans need a serious contender to take out an incumbent Democrat.Meanwhile, Buddy Carter and Mike Collins have both declared. Of the two, Collins has more momentum. People I talk to say Kemp World isn’t enthusiastic about rallying behind Dooley, and they’re not thrilled about having to realign with someone new. Collins could benefit from that vacuum — especially if he secures Trump’s endorsement. And if Kemp doesn’t step back in or offer a viable replacement, Collins may very well end up the nominee.The tension between Trump and Kemp adds another layer. These two have never been close — their feud goes back to Georgia’s certification of the 2020 election and the high-profile primaries that followed. Trump tried to run challengers against both Kemp and Brad Raffensperger, and they destroyed them. So if Trump goes all-in on Collins, and Kemp World is still wandering around trying to sell people on Dooley, it’s going to be a messy primary.But let’s game it out. If Dooley fizzles and Collins gets hot, then by the fall, we might be looking at Mike Collins versus Jon Ossoff in a high-stakes Senate race. Collins will make Ossoff answer for the border, for crime, and for culture war issues like trans athletes — all while wrapping himself in the Lake and Riley Act. That law, named after a murder victim killed by an undocumented immigrant, is going to be the core of his messaging. It’s brutal. It’s effective. And it could work.Still, there’s one wild card left: Brian Kemp himself. He made his announcement back in April, but if the economy is strong and the polling is tight come Thanksgiving, could he reconsider? Stranger things have happened. And Kemp is the only Republican in Georgia with a proven statewide machine, broad appeal, and a serious shot at clearing the field. If he’s still lurking in the background, this race isn’t over. In fact, it hasn’t even started.Chapters00:00:00 - Intro00:03:40 - Georgia Senate Race00:20:32 - Update00:20:54 - Kamala Harris00:24:06 - South Korea Trade Deal00:26:24 - Trump’s White House Ballroom00:28:07 - Interview with Josh Jennings01:18:15 - Wrap-up This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.politicspoliticspolitics.com/subscribe

Transcribed - Published: 31 July 2025

Trump signed an executive order last week that could fundamentally reframe the way the federal government deals with homelessness. Titled “Ending Crime and Disorder on America’s Streets,” the order pivots away from housing-first strategies and toward public safety and mandatory treatment. That includes prioritizing funding for states and cities that ban urban camping, loitering, and open drug use, and it supports civil commitment — involuntary hospitalization for those with severe mental illness or addiction. Harm reduction programs are effectively defunded under this order, and treatment becomes a prerequisite for federal help.This didn’t get a lot of attention in the media. That’s a mistake. Homelessness is one of the most visible problems in American cities, and it’s not going away. I’ve lived in Oakland, San Francisco, and Austin — three cities that have all struggled mightily with this issue. San Francisco in particular is the worst I’ve seen. It’s not hyperbole to say that its homelessness crisis overshadows the city’s stunning architecture and rich culture. Visitors walk away talking about tents, not the Golden Gate Bridge.Politics Politics Politics is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.This isn’t a lecture about policy. I don’t think there’s an easy solution. From everything I’ve read and seen, roughly half of people living on the streets are there because of financial collapse — bad luck, bad decisions, and no safety net. The other half, though, don’t want to reenter society. Some of them are dangerous, many are mentally ill, and addiction is everywhere. That’s especially true in places like the Bay Area, where cheap or even free drugs are plentiful, and the spiral from one substance to the next ends in death more often than we acknowledge.Even in liberal cities, the political lines are shifting. When I moved to Austin in 2021, the city had rescinded its ban on urban camping. The results were immediate: tents on sidewalks, more street homelessness, and public parks taken over. A citywide referendum eventually reinstated the ban — not because Austin became more conservative, but because people across the political spectrum wanted cleaner streets. They didn’t necessarily care how it happened. That’s the political space Trump’s executive order moves into.It’s controversial, yes. And there are real concerns about forcing treatment and stripping funding from programs that do help some people. But the public mood is changing. People are frustrated. They want their cities back, and they’re running out of patience for ideological purity tests. Trump, love him or hate him, is filling a leadership vacuum here. I don’t know if his order will work — or if it’ll be implemented at all in places that oppose him. But I do think it’s a sign that this issue is far from settled, and it’s about to get a lot more attention.Chapters00:00:00 - Intro00:03:09 - Trump’s Homelessness Plan00:14:56 - Update00:15:18 - EPA Rollbacks00:20:09 - North Carolina00:23:12 - Epstein00:26:58 - Interview with Dan Turrentine00:59:56 - Wrap-up This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.politicspoliticspolitics.com/subscribe

Transcribed - Published: 30 July 2025

I just spent three hours watching Hunter Biden, and I have a lot of thoughts. The interview, done by Andrew Callahan for Channel 5, is something like a confessional crossed with a stand-up set crossed with a Twitter thread that never ends. It’s raw, it’s chaotic, and weirdly, it’s compelling. If you’re a politics junkie, a media analyst, or just curious about the human side of scandal, there’s a lot to pick apart.First off, the man is online. Not just vaguely aware of what’s being said about him — he’s terminally online. He knows the jokes, the subtext, the usernames. I’m convinced he has burner accounts. He’s tracking how people talk about him in real time, and it bleeds through every answer. He’s got a list — Tapper, the Pod Save crew, Alex Jones, Stephen Miller, and on and on. He names names, and he torches them. It’s Seth Rollins with a flamethrower.But what’s interesting is how seriously he talks about addiction, sobriety, and crack — yes, crack specifically. He draws lines between drugs, dives into the stigma, and explains how being labeled a “crack addict” shaped public perception of him. These are by far the most honest and lucid parts of the interview. And they reveal someone who’s done the work of recovery — while still slipping into the old reflexes of deflection when the political heat turns up.He has this quote about “an evil symbiosis between money and power” — and I couldn’t help but think, does he hear himself? He’s talking about systems he’s literally a product of. And yet, he stays focused on everyone else’s money. When he brings someone up, it’s almost always first by how rich they are. Soros, Tapper, Bannon — doesn’t matter who it is, the cash comes first. There’s this constant undercurrent of scorekeeping.He also confirms, in his way, that the laptop is real — then turns around and champions the “hallmarks of Russian disinfo” letter like it was gospel. The tension never resolves. He owns up to some things, skirts others, and delivers just enough contradiction to keep everyone debating. Even when he talks about Burisma, he says the quiet part out loud: “I had connections.” That’s the trick, the real reason he was on that board. And he knows it.What stuck with me, though, was his resentment. Not anger — that’s expected — but a deep, lingering bitterness toward the people he feels used him, abandoned him, or dismissed him. It gives the whole interview a kind of edge that goes beyond politics. When he talks about the media, about Democrats who’ve distanced themselves, or even about his father, there’s a tension. Like he’s still waiting for someone to publicly say they screwed him over. He wants vindication as much as he wants attention.And that’s where it lands. This wasn’t an attempt to reset the narrative — it was a live demo of the very chaos people accuse him of embodying. He wants to be understood, but not too clearly. He wants to admit things, but only on his terms. He wants to lash out, but still come off sympathetic. It’s maddening, self-aware, and oddly human. If anything, the interview shows us who Hunter Biden is — and exactly why nobody in the Democratic Party knows what to do with him.Chapters00:00:00 - Intro00:01:09 - Epstein00:05:56 - Hunter Biden00:32:18 - Update00:33:34 - NC Senate Race00:36:40 - Wisconsin Gov. Seat00:38:19 - Florida Redistricting00:39:08 - Interview with Mary Ellen Klas01:17:30 - Wrap-up This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.politicspoliticspolitics.com/subscribe

Transcribed - Published: 25 July 2025

We’re heading into another potential government shutdown, and the maneuvering is already underway. Schumer is strategizing with his caucus on how to handle the September 30 deadline. It’s a familiar script: Democrats want Republicans to commit to avoiding additional rescissions and to agree on the broader budget process before Democrats give their votes. The ask isn’t outrageous — a few basic guarantees in exchange for the seven Democratic votes Republicans would need to hit the 60-vote threshold in the Senate.The tension, of course, is baked in. Some Democrats want to force a shutdown, not avoid one. They think it’s time to show their base that they’ll stand up to Trump and his agenda. But Schumer doesn’t want to lose the optics war. If Democrats are the ones who initiate a shutdown, he knows they’ll never be able to claim the high road again when Republicans try the same play. That framing matters — especially in an election year.Meanwhile, Republicans are eager to push another round of budget cuts. They already passed an $8 billion rescissions package and want more. That’s what Schumer is trying to block, while also keeping his own party from turning a funding debate into a loyalty test. It’s a messy balancing act, and the countdown has already started.Public Media Hits a WallEdith Chapin stepping down from NPR is getting attention, but the real story is the billion-dollar rescission Congress just passed — a cut directly targeting the Corporation for Public Broadcasting. That’s the pot of money that gets divided among outlets like NPR and PBS. Chapin insists her departure isn’t related, and maybe that’s true. Thirteen years is a long run. Still, the timing speaks volumes.For years, public media has downplayed its reliance on federal dollars. They’d argue they only receive about 1% of their funding from the government, so budget cuts shouldn’t matter. But now that Congress has actually slashed that funding, the narrative changes. If they’re not publicly funded in any meaningful way, how do they survive? And if they are, then why haven’t they done a better job of building public goodwill to protect that funding?I don’t think the model holds up much longer. If you rely on taxpayer money, you have to make your case — constantly. You have to give people something they can see, something they can repeat. You can’t just be vague and institutional and assume the funding will continue. It’s not the ’90s anymore. The party’s ending, and there’s a new bartender who’s ready to close the tab.UNESCO and the American PullbackAnd then there’s UNESCO. Trump is pulling the U.S. out of the UN’s Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization — again. It’s a reversal of a reversal from his first term. He says it’s too “woke,” too biased, too ineffective. Whatever the justification, it fits a larger pattern: the U.S. retreating from its role as primary funder of global institutions.There’s always a debate about whether this kind of move opens the door for China to step in and fill the void. That argument has merit. But I’ll say to UNESCO what I said to public media: if you depend on the American public — directly or indirectly — for your funding and relevance, then you have to win public support. You have to tell your story well, and often. You have to make people care.Some of these global organizations got comfortable. They assumed the checks would keep coming, and the U.S. would always foot the bill. But now they’re running out of room. The music’s fading. And if they can’t answer why they matter in plain language, they’ll find themselves cut off without much fanfare.Chapters00:00:00 - Intro00:01:25 - Justin’s BART Experience00:08:52 - Interview with Michael Tracey00:39:40 - Update00:40:17 - Gov’t Shutdown?00:43:32 - NPR00:45:09 - UNESCO00:47:35 - Interview with Michael Tracey, con’t01:18:40 - Wrap-up This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.politicspoliticspolitics.com/subscribe

Transcribed - Published: 22 July 2025

Let’s talk about Liberation Day — and more importantly, how it’s going to end. Back in April, Trump rolled out what looked like a trade war on steroids: a flurry of tariffs aimed at countries big and small, with no clear structure except for one thing — disruption. It was pitched as a three-pronged strategy. First, if you want to sell into the U.S., we should be able to sell into your markets too. Second, we need to re-onshore American manufacturing. And third — and let’s be honest, this was the loudest part — Trump wins.For a minute, it wasn’t clear whether this was a real attempt to fundamentally restructure trade or just a way to set the stage for a bunch of “deals” later. The tariffs went out, the clock started, and everyone was told they had until August to make a deal or face serious costs. And yet, here we are in mid-July with just two completed agreements: Vietnam and the UK. None of the big players — China, the EU, Japan, Canada, Mexico — are done. So the question becomes, what’s the endgame?Here’s what I’ve been told: the White House is prepping a three-phase process that’s all about creating the appearance of momentum. Phase one is joint statements — political handshake documents, not legally binding deals. These are meant to say, “Hey, we’re working on it, don’t hit us with the tariffs yet.” It’s what they did with the UK, and it’s what they want from everyone else by early August. These aren’t trade agreements. They’re vibes.Phase two is an interim agreement — maybe 40 to 50 pages, with some of the real trade language baked in. This is where you’ll start seeing things like rules of origin pop up — basically, making sure countries like China can’t skirt tariffs by routing goods through friendlier ports. It’s technical, it’s dry, and it takes time, but it’s a necessary step toward real enforcement.And phase three, the big one, comes way down the road — probably after the midterms. These are the actual full trade agreements, hundreds of pages long, with all the boring but essential rules locked in. But here’s the twist: if you think countries will bother going through phase two and three after they’ve already locked in the tariff rate during phase one, you’re missing the enforcement tool — Section 232. The White House is making it clear: if you slack off, we’ll start making noise. We’ll investigate. We’ll embarrass you. Think Mexican tomatoes — everybody knows they’re breaking the rules, and we’ve just been letting it slide. But not anymore.So when all these joint agreements start rolling out at the end of this month, remember what they are: theater. The deals are political stunts to buy time, stabilize markets, and let Trump declare victory. The real work — the real meat — comes later. And that’s how Liberation Day ends. Not with a bang, but with a bunch of bullet-pointed PDFs.Chapters00:00:00 - Intro00:03:05 - How does Liberation Day end?00:16:24 - Interview with Jack Gamble00:41:30 - Update00:41:46 - Epstein Discharge Petition00:50:44 - Virginia Polls00:52:18 - Rescissions Package Passage00:53:36 - Interview with Jack Gamble (con't)01:15:25 - Wrap-up This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.politicspoliticspolitics.com/subscribe

Transcribed - Published: 17 July 2025

Andrew Cuomo is still trying to matter.That’s the clearest takeaway from his latest appearance — a campaign reboot so empty and unconvincing it bordered on parody. After blowing a 60-point lead in the Democratic primary for New York City mayor to Zohran Mamdani, Cuomo continues to operate as if he didn’t just have — and squander — his best shot. It wasn’t a close race. It wasn’t an upset. It was a humiliation, and it made Mamdani a star. Cuomo didn’t just lose; he handed the spotlight to the person who beat him.What’s most baffling is Cuomo’s unwillingness to run as anything other than himself. His latest ad is a watered-down version of Mamdani’s campaign. Mamdani talked to people across the city about affordability — and even if his ideas were divisive, they were ideas. Cuomo’s pitch? Affordability. No vision. No contrast. Just a stale echo of a message he neither originated nor sharpened. If Cuomo wanted to offer something Mamdani couldn’t, he had options. He could’ve leaned into public safety, into the fear felt by many New Yorkers. He could’ve campaigned from a synagogue, framed himself as the candidate who would safeguard Jewish communities, and tied Mamdani to the left wing of the party in a way that forced a choice. Instead, we got nothing.Politics Politics Politics is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.There’s no attack line, no clear point of differentiation. Cuomo could’ve said: this is de Blasio 2.0. He could’ve framed Mamdani as a performance artist backed by a failed administration. He didn’t. Instead, he gave voters a lifeless, mimicry-driven campaign with no policy edge. And that brings us to what he is actually running on: his name. For a sliver of voters — the “Cuomosexuals” who liked Mario, liked Andrew, maybe even liked Chris — that might be enough. But for everyone else, Cuomo looks like a man clinging to a legacy that no longer serves him.This also highlights why “Stop ‘X’ Candidate” movements almost never work. Ego ruins coordination. Eric Adams isn’t dropping out — he’s the sitting mayor. Cuomo still acts like running is beneath him. Curtis Sliwa isn’t a serious enough contender to pull votes in a general election. And despite the specter of Mamdani's ideology frightening national Democrats, no consensus candidate has emerged. If there were a moderate Republican hedge fund type — pro-choice, socially liberal — that person could shake things up. But they don’t exist here. Not this cycle.Ultimately, national Republicans are thrilled. They see Mamdani as a gift. Mike Johnson and Donald Trump will seize on his victory to cast New York as the face of socialism in America — a symbol of excess, decline, and failed progressivism. It’s a setup for the midterms. They’re ready to prey on any misstep, real or imagined. And unless something changes fast, the ‘Stop Zohran’ movement isn’t materializing. Not because it couldn’t — but because no one in the race knows how to make it happen. Cuomo had his chance. He whiffed.Chapters00:00:00 - Intro00:02:37 - Cuomo Stays in NYC Race00:11:36 - Update00:12:05 - Inflation Report00:15:26 - Recissions Package00:18:45 - Israel00:19:55 - Interview with Emily Jashinsky00:59:15 - Wrap-up This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.politicspoliticspolitics.com/subscribe

Transcribed - Published: 15 July 2025

As the 2026 election cycle takes shape, three stories signal how the political terrain is shifting: the return of Iowa to early-state relevance, the emergence of an independent challenge in Nebraska, and the Republican Party’s willingness to get aggressive — fast.Iowa Democrats are pushing to reclaim their first-in-the-nation status — and they’re doing it with or without national party approval. Senator Ruben Gallego is already promoting visits, and the message is clear: Iowa is back. For Democrats, this matters. The state has long served as a proving ground for insurgent campaigns, offering low costs, civic-minded voters, and a tight-knit media ecosystem. Barack Obama’s 2008 breakthrough began in Iowa for a reason. It rewards organization, retail politics, and real ground games.The party’s 2024 decision to downgrade Iowa was framed as a gesture to Black voters in states like South Carolina and Georgia. In reality, it was a strategic retreat by Joe Biden to avoid a poor showing. That backfired when Dean Phillips forced an awkward New Hampshire campaign and Biden had to rely on a write-in effort. Now, Iowa’s utility is being rediscovered — not because it changed, but because the party's strategy failed. For candidates who want to win on message and mechanics, Iowa remains unmatched.In Nebraska, Dan Osborne is trying to chart a different kind of path — not as a Democrat, but as an independent with populist instincts. Running against Senator Pete Ricketts, Osborne is leaning into a class-focused campaign. His ads channel a blue-collar ethos: punching walls, working with his hands, and taking on the rich. He doesn’t have to answer for Biden. He doesn’t have to pick sides in old partisan fights. He just has to be relatable and viable.That independence could be Osborne’s biggest asset — or his biggest liability. His support for Bernie Sanders invites the question: is he a true outsider, or a Democrat in disguise? Sanders has always caucused with Democrats and run on their ticket. Osborne will have to prove he can remain politically distinct while tapping into a coalition broad enough to win in a deeply red state. Nebraska voters might give him a chance, but they’ll need a reason to believe he’s not just another version of what they already know.And then there’s the tone of the campaign itself. The National Republican Senatorial Committee is already running attack ads that border on X-rated. A recent spot reads aloud hashtags from a sexually explicit tweet in a bid to link opponents with cultural extremes. The strategy is clear: bypass policy, bypass biography — go straight for discomfort. Make voters associate the opposition with something taboo. Make the election feel like a moral emergency.These tactics aren’t about persuasion. They’re about turnout. They aim to harden the base, suppress moderates, and flood the discourse with outrage. The fact that it’s happening this early suggests Republicans see 2026 as a high-stakes cycle where no race can be taken for granted. And if this is how they’re starting, the tone by next summer could be even more toxic.All of this — Iowa’s return, Osborne’s challenge, the NRSC’s messaging — points to a midterm cycle already in motion. The personalities are distinct. The tactics are evolving. But the stakes, as ever, are the same: power, perception, and the battle to define the political future before anyone casts a vote.Chapters00:00:00 - Intro00:01:56 - Midterm Ads00:15:18 - Interview with Dave Levinthal00:37:31 - Update00:38:11 - Ken Paxton and the Texas Senate Race00:43:02 - Congressional Districts00:47:31 - Fed Chair00:52:42 - Interview with Dave Levinthal (con’t)01:11:22 - Wrap-up This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.politicspoliticspolitics.com/subscribe

Transcribed - Published: 11 July 2025

The Justice Department under Donald Trump has formally closed its investigation into Jeffrey Epstein. In a memo posted quietly to its website, the department declared there would be no new charges, and reaffirmed its conclusion that Epstein died by suicide. It’s a familiar ending — one that satisfied almost no one — but it also lit the fuse on a slow-burning political problem within Trump’s cabinet.At the center of it is Pam Bondi, Trump’s Attorney General, whose handling of the situation has been anything but decisive. Her tone during a recent cabinet meeting was defensive and evasive, and her history with this issue isn’t helping. Bondi has previously courted controversy by summoning social media influencers, handing them binders on Epstein, and pushing them in front of cameras. That kind of theater backfires when questions grow more serious. And as I said on the podcast — she’s getting fired. It’s not official yet, but the countdown has begun.Bondi’s standing is further weakened by reports of internal rifts. According to journalist Tara Palmeri, there’s tension between Bondi and figures like Dan Bongino and Kash Patel — names with significant sway over Trump’s perception of media battles and political threats. Add to that the fact that Bondi keeps attracting headlines Trump doesn’t want, and you have a recipe for dismissal. Trump, perhaps more than any modern political figure, watches the television coverage as a barometer of competence. And right now, Bondi’s airtime is working against her.None of this, of course, brings clarity to the Epstein case itself. As someone who followed the story when it was still a South Florida curiosity, long before it became national scandal, I’ll tell you this — there are more questions than answers, and most of them will remain unanswered. There’s been speculation Epstein was connected to intelligence services, that his travels and access were part of something larger. Maybe. I don’t know. But if there is some shadowy list of powerful clients, no administration — not Trump’s first, not Biden’s, and apparently not Trump’s second — has been willing to expose it.What’s more likely is something simpler, and grimmer. Epstein had money. He had access. And he knew how to exploit both to surround himself with women — some underage, many vulnerable — through a recruitment structure that has been thoroughly documented. I don’t buy the cleaner narrative that he was a glorified pimp operating on behalf of presidents and princes. It’s more disturbing than that: he didn’t need to offer favors. He created an ecosystem where abuse flourished because no one had the will or incentive to stop it.So where does Trump fit in? Despite the conspiracies, there’s never been strong evidence that Trump was entangled in Epstein’s criminal world. Did they know each other? Absolutely. They were two rich men in West Palm Beach — their social paths inevitably crossed. But the idea that Trump needed Epstein for access to women doesn’t add up. Trump, at the height of his fame, ran beauty pageants and a hit TV show. The Pipeline of Pliable Women was already installed. If anything, Trump’s problem with Epstein isn’t guilt — it’s optics. Being in the same orbit, in hindsight, was bad enough.And that’s the heart of the issue now. Trump doesn’t want this story back in the headlines. He doesn’t want cabinet officials stumbling on camera, reviving suspicions, or dragging his name back into the Epstein muck. The DOJ statement was supposed to close the book. Pam Bondi — with her missteps and misreads — may have accidentally ripped it back open. If Trump’s watching the coverage, he’s likely already decided: she’s more trouble than she’s worth.Chapters00:00:00 - Intro00:03:52 - Epstein Case Closed00:16:06 - Update00:16:47 - Elon’s America Party00:21:36 - AI Marco00:24:25 - Tariff Deal Deadline00:26:13 - Interview with Juliegrace Brufke00:56:36 - Wrap-up This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.politicspoliticspolitics.com/subscribe

Transcribed - Published: 9 July 2025

Zohran Mamdani didn’t just beat Andrew Cuomo — he buried him. In a race many expected to be tight or favor Cuomo through ranked-choice tallies, Mamdani delivered a knockout in the first round. The final numbers weren’t close: Mamdani pulled in 545,000 votes to Cuomo’s 428,000. That’s a blowout. And it happened despite Cuomo once polling at an absurd 80%. This wasn’t just a campaign upset — it was the end of Cuomo’s delusion that he could waltz back into New York politics on name recognition alone.Mamdani’s campaign was sharp and technically sound. He mastered ranked-choice mechanics — building coalitions, securing second-choice support, and locking in endorsements from the Working Families Party and key progressive organizers. But he didn’t just activate the left. He reached across neighborhoods and demographics, putting in real ground work. His message wasn’t just ideological; it was practical and local — housing, transit, jobs. The kind of politics that wins you quiet votes in places people don’t usually canvass.Now, Mamdani becomes a national proxy whether he wants to or not. Republicans will make him the new face of the Democratic Party, using his self-identified socialism as a scarecrow in swing states. But that spotlight also comes with opportunity. He’s proven he can organize, message, and win. If Mamdani survives the general — and with Eric Adams now backed into a defensive fight, that’s looking more likely — he could emerge as a new progressive standard-bearer not just for New York, but for the left nationwide.Politics Politics Politics is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.Trump and DeSantis, Reunited AgainDonald Trump and Ron DeSantis appeared together this week, publicly touring the new Alligator Alcatraz immigration facility in the Everglades. This was their first real moment of unity since a brutal 2024 GOP primary season. On the surface, they were aligned — joking, praising one another, presenting a strong front on immigration.Behind the smiles, though, Florida politics remains deeply tribal. There’s always more going on under the surface. This wasn’t just a unity photo-op; it was a strategic pivot. With the media focused on deportation centers and immigration enforcement, Democrats’ messaging about Medicaid cuts and policy substance is being drowned out. Whether this is 5D chess from Trump or just savvy instinct, the outcome is the same — the right is driving the conversation.And here’s my hunch: DeSantis is bound for a Trump administration role. Maybe not immediately, but certainly toward the end of his term. I don’t know the exact position, but his re-alignment with Trump suggests he’s looking for a path forward that keeps him in the national conversation.Allred’s Return and the Uphill Battle in TexasColin Allred is back, launching another Senate bid in Texas, likely against Ken Paxton. His opening ad leans heavily on anti-corruption themes, clearly aimed at Paxton’s scandals and ethical baggage. It’s a smart choice if Paxton is the nominee. Voters don’t forget public messes involving mistresses, real estate ties, and abandoned staff.That said, I’m not sold on Allred. His ad doesn’t connect — it’s too heavy on biography and too light on vision. People watching already know who he is. They’re asking what he’s going to do differently this time. He had a respectable run against Ted Cruz, but he didn’t break through. And in a state like Texas, breaking through isn’t optional — it’s the baseline requirement.Texas Democrats face a structural problem. The party’s progressives dominate primaries but struggle to produce general election winners. Allred’s strength as a former football player was undercut by the trans sports issue. He doesn’t read as a football guy, and he doesn’t read as the kind of candidate who can split the difference between national party expectations and Texas voter realities. I’ll be watching this race, but my expectations are tempered.Chapters00:00:00 - Intro00:03:03 - Interview with Kirk Bado00:29:16 - Update00:29:53 - Final NYC Mayoral Primary Results00:33:57 - Trump and DeSantis Reunite00:37:29 - Colin Allred for Texas Senate00:45:05 - Interview with Kirk Bado (con’t)01:07:04 - Steelers Talk01:19:13 - Bonus Politics Question01:19:52 - Wrap-up This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.politicspoliticspolitics.com/subscribe

Transcribed - Published: 1 July 2025

Zohran Mamdani just reshaped New York politics — and maybe the national conversation too. I was on the fence going into the NYC mayoral primary. Mamdani’s campaign had energy, ideas, and a clear message, while Andrew Cuomo’s felt like a dusty rerun nobody asked for. But I still assumed Cuomo’s name, connections, and donor base would carry him through. I shouldn’t have. Mamdani didn’t just win — he torched the field in the first round. Cuomo saw the writing on the wall and didn’t even wait for ranked-choice voting to play out. He conceded outright.Now Mamdani isn’t just a local story — he’s a national one. Republicans have already started holding him up as the new face of the Democratic Party, especially in swing districts. He’s a self-described socialist who just beat one of the most recognizable Democratic names in the country. That’s political catnip for the right. Trump himself mentioned Mamdani on Truth Social. Conservative influencers are hammering him daily. Whether Mamdani likes it or not, he’s been drafted into a larger culture war — and every policy, every quote, every tweet is going to be scrutinized at the national level from here on out.Politics Politics Politics is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.And it’s not just Republicans reacting. Democrats are watching closely too, especially younger progressives who now see a viable path forward in big-ticket races. Mamdani ran a campaign that wasn’t afraid of bold ideas — rent freezes, public banking, and fare-free transit — but he didn’t couch it in academic jargon. He went neighborhood to neighborhood, meeting people where they were, and speaking plainly. That’s going to be studied. That’s going to be copied. And in a party that often struggles to translate left-wing policy into real-world messaging, Mamdani may have just written the playbook.The irony is that Mamdani’s win might breathe new life into Eric Adams — the guy the establishment tried to sideline. After the FBI raid and months of bad headlines, Adams looked like political toast. The party scrambled to swap in Cuomo as the “safe” option. But now that Cuomo’s been humiliated, the same centrists who cast Adams aside are lining up to support him in the general. That’s politics — ruthless and fast-moving. Expect a soft-focus profile in the New York Times Magazine before the fall: “Still Here: Why Eric Adams Never Gave Up on New York.”What makes this even more fascinating is that Mamdani’s campaign actually had real working-class appeal. He didn’t just preach to the progressive base. He campaigned across the entire city, even in neighborhoods where he was bound to lose. He framed his message in economic terms that resonated across ideological lines. That’s not something many on the left do well. If Mamdani can sustain that balance — if he can speak to both the base and the broader public — he may become more than a lightning rod. He could become a blueprint. But first, he’s got to win the general. And now that Adams is back in the game, the gloves are coming off.Chapters00:00:00 - Intro00:02:21 - Zohran Mamdani00:10:13 - Interview with David Litt00:34:49 - Update00:35:32 - Big Beautiful Bill Push00:39:47 - Elise Stefanik Gov. Race00:41:42 - Planned Parenthood Supreme Court Ruling00:45:06 - Interview with David Litt, con't.01:10:12 - Wrap-up This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.politicspoliticspolitics.com/subscribe

Transcribed - Published: 26 June 2025

World War III is canceled — at least for now. That’s where we are after one of the most dramatic weeks I can remember. The United States bombed Iran’s nuclear facilities. Israel followed up with its own strikes. Iran responded with missile attacks on CENTCOM in Qatar. And somehow, through all that, we’ve landed at a ceasefire. It felt like this was going to spiral — like this was going to be Qasem Soleimani times ten. Instead, it fizzled. Iran’s missile strikes were calibrated, coordinated with the Qataris, coordinated even with us. They hit the sand, not American soldiers. It was more about sending a message back home than actually escalating the conflict.And that’s the strange brilliance of it all. Trump took the boldest action — destroying Iran’s nuclear program — and managed to walk away looking like the peacemaker. The people who warned that this would unleash chaos — Tucker Carlson predicting tens of thousands of dead Americans, Steve Bannon talking about gas at $30 a gallon — they look like they overshot. Gas prices are lower. No Americans killed. And Trump’s using this moment to reframe himself. He’s not just the guy who kept his promise to stop Iran’s nukes. He’s the guy who did it without dragging America into another endless war. That’s going to matter politically. It gives him an argument the MAGA base and the suburbs can both live with.Politics Politics Politics is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.Israel’s role here is important too. Make no mistake — this was their mission. They wanted Iran’s nuclear capacity gone. Trump signed off on a limited U.S. role, but Rising Lion was an Israeli operation at its core. Their goal was never just to set the program back a few years. It was to shake the regime. You can see it in the name — Rising Lion, the symbol of Iran before the Islamic Revolution. They’re trying to turn the clock back. And they knew this was their window. Iran’s economy is fragile, its proxies are weakened, and Trump was willing to greenlight the hits. The question now is whether this creates the cracks in the regime they’ve been waiting for — or just rallies Iranians around the flag.The domestic political fallout has been fascinating. Never Trump Republicans who’ve trashed Trump for years — Bolton, Christie, Kinzinger, even Jeb Bush — lined up to praise him. And that’s made MAGA a little uneasy. They didn’t sign up for regime change wars. They signed up for America First. And now they’re watching Trump get applause from the same people who cheered on Iraq. Meanwhile, Democrats are trying to resurrect the war powers debate, framing this as executive overreach. It’s the rare moment where anti-war Republicans and Democrats are kind of saying the same thing. But for now, Trump’s riding high. He promised strength without entanglement — and for the moment, he’s delivered.The NYC Mayoral Primary: Cuomo Stumbles, Mamdani SurgesOver in New York City, the Democratic mayoral primary has become the most interesting race in the country. Andrew Cuomo should have been cruising. He had the name recognition, the machine, the donor network. But his campaign has been a disaster. He looks old, angry, and out of step. His message is all negative — all about why Mamdani is dangerous, not why Cuomo is right for the job. And the voters can feel that. It’s a re-run of 2021 for Cuomo: defensive, brittle, uninspired. Meanwhile, Mamdani is doing what progressives often struggle to do. He’s selling a vision. He’s making people feel like the future could actually look different.Mamdani’s campaign has been relentless. He turned a 14-mile walk from the bottom to the top of Manhattan into a social media juggernaut. TikToks. Instagram reels. Everywhere you look, there’s Mamdani, talking to voters, talking about his ideas, looking like he actually wants the job. His policy platform is ambitious — some would say reckless — rent freezes, city-owned grocery stores, free public transit. But it’s positive. He’s offering something, not just fighting against something. That matters, especially in a city where voters are tired of politics as usual.The ranked choice system adds another layer of drama. Mamdani doesn’t have to win outright on the first round. He just has to stay close enough that the second- and third-choice votes break his way. And given how much Cuomo is disliked even by his own side, that’s very possible. The big donors are starting to notice. If Mamdani wins the primary, they’ll flood Eric Adams with money for the general. They’ll do it out of fear — fear that a Mamdani mayoralty would upend the city’s power structures in ways they can’t predict or control. And they’re probably right.But even if Mamdani falls short, this race is a marker for where the Democratic Party is going. The fact that he got this far, this fast, tells you something about the appetite for progressive politics in urban America. Cuomo thought he could coast on his name and his record. Instead, he’s found himself outworked, outmessaged, and outmaneuvered. And the rest of the party is watching. Because if Mamdani can do this in New York, somebody else can do it somewhere else. The future is up for grabs.Chapters00:00:00 - Intro00:01:39 - Iran-Israel Ceasefire00:17:53 - NYC Mayoral Primary00:28:00 - Update00:29:04 - Tariff Inflation00:31:18 - Big Beautiful Bill Voting00:34:48 - Trade Deals00:38:02 - Interview with Sam Feist01:11:11 - Wrap-up This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.politicspoliticspolitics.com/subscribe

Transcribed - Published: 24 June 2025

The big headline, of course, this week is Iran. The White House says Iran has everything it needs to build a nuclear weapon. That’s where we are. Trump has about two weeks to decide whether to launch an attack. The reporting right now focuses on what kind of strike it would take to actually stop the program — could our bunker busters get the job done, or are those centrifuges buried so deep we’d need to soften the ground with conventional bombs first? There’s even been talk — not a plan, just a technical example — of how only a tactical nuke could fully destroy Fordo. That’s not where we’re at, but it tells you how seriously the Pentagon is gaming this out.And honestly, I don’t see a deal coming. Iran’s regime can’t afford it. Giving up the nuke means giving up the one thing that lets them project power, and domestically, it would be political suicide. You don’t stay in charge in Tehran by backing down on Israel and nukes — not unless you’re planning an escape to Moscow and retirement in a palace somewhere. That’s not happening. My bet: Fordo gets hit. And when it does, the question is what follows.The Elon-MAGA Rift DeepensMeanwhile, Elon Musk continues his very public, very messy split with Trump World. After his earlier apology tour seemed to smooth things over, Musk reignited tensions by calling Trump advisor Sergio Gore a “snake.” This all goes back to their feud over NASA leadership and White House staffing — and it’s clear Musk isn’t letting it go. Vice President JD Vance jumped in to defend Gore, and the White House insists Gore is fully cleared and doing his job. The result? Elon drifts further from the MAGA core. He wanted to be at the table, but he keeps setting fire to the chairs.And look, this is classic Elon. He’s always clashed with people he once partnered with — OpenAI, Trump, now Gore. He moves fast, burns bridges, and expects to build new ones just as quickly. But politics isn’t tech. There’s only so many seats at the table, and right now, he’s playing himself out of them.ICE Raids, Reversals, and the Trump Balancing ActImmigration remains the other pressure point. Trump’s team initially paused ICE raids targeting agriculture and hospitality — a move that shocked his hardline base. But now they’re back on, with priority given to workers with criminal records. Tom Homan, Trump’s border czar, is clear: enforcement continues, but it’s targeted. The message to farmers? There are legal ways to hire, and if Congress won’t fix the system, they’ll enforce the laws that exist.It’s classic Trump tension: the balance between policy purity and practical impact. He built his coalition on immigration hard lines and anti-interventionism. That’s what set him apart. Now, those promises are being tested — at home and abroad. And we’re about to see how far he’s willing to push before the cracks show.Chapters00:00:00 - Intro00:01:51 - Iran00:05:29 - Solving Immigration with Andrew Heaton00:26:54 - Update00:27:27 - Elon00:31:07 - ICE Raids00:33:43 - Solving Immigration with Andrew Heaton, con’t01:00:42 - Wrap-up This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.politicspoliticspolitics.com/subscribe

Transcribed - Published: 19 June 2025

This is one of those moments where it feels like something fundamental is shifting. The MAGA coalition — that mix of influencers, voters, and operators who’ve been the core of Trump’s political power — looks like it’s fracturing. I’m not saying it’s done, I’m not saying the whole thing comes crashing down, but I’ve never seen this kind of strain. Not since Trump came down the golden escalator in 2015. And it all comes down to two issues: immigration and foreign intervention. The two things that defined Trump as a candidate. The two things that made him stand out in a crowded Republican field. The two things that made him president — twice.Immigration and the First CrackWe’ve talked for years about how immigration shaped MAGA. It took what had been a fringe issue and turned it into the centerpiece of Republican politics. Build the wall. Deport the illegals. It was simple, powerful, and resonated in ways that shocked the establishment. Trump was the first in a generation of Republicans to put his full weight behind it, and he changed the party forever. That’s why what happened last week matters so much. Trump told his government not to conduct ICE raids at hotels, farms, and meatpacking plants. That’s not a small adjustment — that’s a major walk-back from the hardline stance that’s been central to MAGA identity. And it didn’t take long for the backlash to hit. MAGA influencers — the same folks who gave Elon the cold shoulder when he crossed Trump — came out swinging. This time, they were swinging at Trump.Trump reversed himself pretty quickly. But the damage was done. That moment — that decision to pause the raids — showed a crack in the coalition. It revealed a gap between what the base expects and what Trump is willing to deliver when faced with real-world pressures. He doesn’t want grocery prices to spike. He doesn’t want vacationers complaining about hotels. And so he blinked. That’s what happened. And even though he tried to patch it up, the fact that it happened at all is what matters.Iran, Fordo, and the Intervention DilemmaThen there’s foreign policy — the other pillar of Trump’s MAGA appeal. Trump ran against the Iraq war. He ran against regime change. He ran against endless wars. And for four years, he mostly delivered. No new boots on the ground. When he struck, it was fast and targeted — think Soleimani, not Baghdad. But now, here we are, staring down the barrel of something that looks a lot like Iraq all over again. The question on the table: does America bomb Fordo, Iran’s underground enrichment facility, for Israel? And if we do, what comes next?Trump believes Iran can’t be allowed to have nuclear weapons. Tulsi Gabbard, his own director of national intelligence, says Iran isn’t close. That’s daylight between the president and his intel team. And MAGA sees it. They see the build-up. They see the echoes of Iraq. And they’re scared. Scared that Trump is about to cross the one line they thought he never would. Scared that this isn’t just about Fordo — that this is the start of something bigger. Something with boots on the ground. Something that breaks the promise of America First.MAGA’s Nightmare ScenarioIf you asked MAGA voters their nightmare scenario, this would be it. Regime change in the Middle East. A war that drags on. A betrayal of the core principles that brought them to Trump in the first place. The immigration reversal shook them. The Iran situation is terrifying them. And if Trump does decide to hit Fordo, that might be enough to fracture the coalition for good — at least for some.Trump’s legacy on foreign policy could go one of two ways. If Fordo is hit and that’s the end of it, maybe he walks away stronger, having prevented Iran from going nuclear without a long war. But if this spirals — if we get drawn into regime change, nation-building, boots on the ground — it could end his presidency before the next election even starts. MAGA was built on promises. And right now, those promises are under stress like never before.Chapters00:00:00 - Intro00:01:40 - The End of MAGA?00:23:15 - Update00:24:40 - Minnesota Dem Assassination Arrest00:33:11 - SALT00:37:27 - Israel-Iran00:43:44 - The Px3 Focus Group (with Matt Donnelly and Paul Mattingly of Ice Cream Social)01:30:44 - Wrap-up This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.politicspoliticspolitics.com/subscribe

Transcribed - Published: 18 June 2025

A weekend so profound in it’s news that I am going to push this beyond the paywall. Let’s start abroad… Israel-Iran Conflict Erupts with Fatal StrikesThe military confrontation between Israel and Iran intensified over the weekend, pushing the region toward a broader conflict. After Israel initiated Operation Rising Lion, Iranian ballistic missiles and drones pierced Israeli defenses, leading to 13 fatalities and hundreds of injuries. Iran, in turn, reported nearly 400 deaths, many of them civilians, following retaliatory strikes on its infrastructure and military assets.Israeli airstrikes included the bombing of energy depots in Tehran and targeted assaults on military aircraft. The Israeli government, under Prime Minister Netanyahu, emphasized that the current response was merely the beginning of a broader campaign intended to dismantle Iran's nuclear ambitions and proxy forces.Meanwhile, President Donald Trump denied American involvement but warned of U.S. retaliation should Iran target American interests. A backchannel veto of a potential Israeli strike on Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei suggests complex coordination between the U.S. and Israel.Iran’s capacity to fund regional proxies like Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis has drastically diminished. This could signal a potential collapse of its foreign influence model. Mossad operations inside Iran, along with America’s preemptive repositioning of military personnel, hinted at foreknowledge of the Israeli offensive. As the G7 summit approaches, international leaders are poised to make de-escalation a top priority.Political Assassination Rocks MinnesotaA horrifying attack in Minnesota has left two dead and two more wounded in what authorities are calling a politically motivated assassination. State Representative Melissa Hortman and her husband were killed, while State Senator John Hoffman and his wife were critically injured. The suspect, Vance Luther Boelter, remains at large.Boelter, 57, reportedly used a fake police vehicle and latex disguise to enter the homes of his victims. A manifesto and target list naming politicians and abortion providers were discovered, suggesting a premeditated campaign of terror. Boelter, with a background in security and missionary work, sent a farewell text to his roommate before the attacks and has since vanished.Authorities continue to investigate the full extent of Boelter’s motivations, but his prior service on a Minnesota government workforce board and links to evangelical missions underscore the unpredictable nature of ideological radicalization. Political leaders have called for unity and condemned the violence as a tragic escalation of political extremism.No Kings Day Protests and D.C. Parade Are Mercifully DocilePresident Trump's 79th birthday coincided with massive "No Kings Day" protests, as hundreds of thousands across more than 2,000 cities demonstrated against what organizers describe as authoritarian governance. Backed by groups such as the ACLU and teachers unions, the protests, both domestic and international, were largely peaceful, although one protester in Salt Lake City was injured by a firearm discharged from within the crowd.In Washington, D.C., the U.S. Army’s 250th anniversary parade presented a striking contrast. With more than 6,000 troops, historical reenactors, and military hardware on display, the event drew cheers and selfies rather than vitriol. Even MSNBC coverage noted the upbeat atmosphere, starkly different from the usual tension of Trump rallies.Despite criticism of the $45 million price tag and corporate sponsorships by firms like Northrop Grumman and Coinbase, the event appeared largely apolitical. Trump delivered a brief, focused speech and administered the enlistment oath to 250 new Army recruits, marking the occasion as a rare moment of bipartisan recognition for military service.Episode Chapters and Time Codes* Intro and Father's Day Reflections (00:00:00)* Israel-Iran Conflict Analysis (00:02:18)* Michael Leiter Interview on Israeli Defense (00:04:08)* Strategic Implications and U.S. Positioning (00:08:12)* Domestic Fallout and Trump’s Dilemma (00:13:54)* Netanyahu’s Political Calculations (00:18:02)* Minnesota Assassinations and National Impact (00:20:06)* Senator Klobuchar’s Tribute (00:20:06)* Suspect Background and Manhunt Details (00:22:36)* Reflections on Political Violence (00:26:32)* No Kings Day Protests Recap (00:33:49)* Army Parade Overview and Public Response (00:35:28)* Final Thoughts on American Expression (00:44:01) This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.politicspoliticspolitics.com/subscribe

Transcribed - Published: 15 June 2025

Capitol Hill was a chaotic mess on Thursday, and Senator Padilla made sure all eyes were on him. He walked into a press conference, got into a scuffle, and wound up in handcuffs — all of it caught on tape. The footage, conveniently shot by Padilla’s own team, spread fast. If it was a stunt, it worked. Within hours, major Democratic voices like Pete Buttigieg were condemning the incident, claiming even Trump wouldn’t cross that line. The Congressional Hispanic Caucus rallied, heckled Speaker Mike Johnson, and declared Padilla a thug or a hero, depending on which side you were on.Let’s be real: Padilla knew exactly what he was doing. He showed up to that press event looking to make a scene — and he made one. Whether or not he wore his Senate pin is beside the point. He wanted the arrest. He wanted the handcuffs. He wanted to be the visual representation of resistance to what California Democrats are branding a fascist crackdown. Gavin Newsom practically begged Trump to arrest him — Padilla followed through.The reactions say it all. I’ve heard from Republicans on the Hill who weren’t thrilled with how it went down, and that tells you who won the optics game. If the video wasn’t a strategic release — if this wasn’t planned — it sure fooled me. Democrats instantly seized on it. Social media lit up. The message was clear: California’s not backing down. Padilla’s not backing down. And if you try to box us out of this debate, we’ll crash the press conference — literally.Padilla and Governor Kristi Noem apparently had a sit-down afterward. They exchanged numbers, maybe patched it up, maybe not. But the story had already moved. The narrative was set. This wasn’t about reconciliation — it was about the clip. A sitting senator in handcuffs doesn’t just turn heads. It dominates the news cycle. And for a party looking to show spine in the face of rising federal enforcement in California, Padilla delivered. He walked in knowing exactly how it would play — and for better or worse, he played it perfectly.Chapters00:00:00 - Intro00:02:04 - Thoughts on Sen. Padilla00:09:38 - Interview with Evan Scrimshaw00:38:53 - Update00:39:25 - Dem Govs Defend State Immigration00:42:02 - House Recissions Package Passes00:44:55 - Air India Plane Crash00:46:54 - Interview with Evan Scrimshaw, con’t.01:25:32 - Wrap-up This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.politicspoliticspolitics.com/subscribe

Transcribed - Published: 13 June 2025

The ongoing Los Angeles protests started with ICE raids. Not a new thing in concept, but a new thing in tone and target. We’re talking work sites, immigration courts, restaurants — not jails or prisons, not the places where even the most progressive voices might begrudgingly agree law enforcement has some claim. But California law has essentially blocked ICE from accessing inmates for deportation. So instead of going after the people most would agree should be first in line, they’re now going after people in public-facing jobs and community spaces. It's one thing to talk about enforcement — it’s another when that enforcement happens where families eat or work.And that’s the flashpoint. Trump said he’d deliver the biggest deportation effort in U.S. history. That promise means numbers, and numbers mean sympathy eventually bleeds in. I assumed it would come when a grandma running a family bakery got dragged out on camera. Instead, we’re here — people in court, people in the kitchen, being targeted. This was always going to happen. When you aim big, you eventually hit someone the public doesn't want you to hit. And in a city like L.A., that means people are going to show up in the streets.Violence, Protest, and the California ReflexProtesting in California isn’t unusual. It’s part of the culture. Go look at Instagram stories from anyone in L.A. or the Bay Area — if something controversial is happening, people are in the streets. It’s not performative in a bad way; it’s performative in the literal sense. It’s how people express politics. But with that comes another layer. The violence.There’s a slice of every major California protest that’s just there for the bricks, the Molotovs, the chaos. Whether they’re accelerationists or just anarchists, they’re consistent. And that’s the problem. The damage they do isn’t proportional — it’s cinematic. It’s what ends up on cable news and social media. And if the goal is to change hearts and minds about immigration policy, burning cop cars and smashing windows makes that harder, not easier.Where Are the Adults?This is where leadership matters. Donald Trump’s giving about 20% of his attention to this. Maybe less. He’s more engaged with Iran and China. The ICE moves feel reflexive, not strategic. They hit resistance, they escalate. Federalizing the National Guard, deploying Marines — it’s blunt-force governance. It’s power without precision. What you really need is coordination with the local officials. Instead, we’ve got a shouting match.Gavin Newsom says “arrest me.” Karen Bass echoes that. But neither is engaging with the reality on the ground. They’re acting like Trump is literally smashing windows. And maybe that’s useful for the national narrative, but it’s not leadership. The onus is on them — Newsom, Bass, the people closest to the problem — to take the lead in condemning the violence. But they won’t even acknowledge it. And so we spiral.The truth is, most of these protests are peaceful. But the few that aren’t are the ones that define the story. That was the lesson of 2020. And yet here we are again, learning it all over. It’s a noble cause, absolutely. But when you ignore the violence — when you pretend it doesn’t matter — you lose the moral high ground. And right now, nobody’s looking particularly adult in the room.Chapters00:00:00 - Intro00:01:33 - LA Protests00:18:45 - Interview with Rep. Greg Steube00:38:58 - Update00:39:26 - BBB Provisions00:42:25 - Recission Package00:48:28 - LA Protest Polling00:50:19 - Interview with Tom Merritt01:28:53 - Wrap-up This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.politicspoliticspolitics.com/subscribe

Transcribed - Published: 11 June 2025

The Big Beautiful Bill looked like it was gliding along. Sure, there were hiccups — Rand Paul grumbled about the debt ceiling, some MAGA accounts didn’t fully endorse it — but even then, it felt like controlled turbulence. Paul was performing his role as the token dissenter, the libertarian who always squawks about spending but eventually votes yes with a few tweaks. And he was already telegraphing his price: drop the debt ceiling hike and he’s in. Meanwhile, the House side wasn’t exactly throwing punches. Everyone was eyeing the Senate. If anything, it seemed like things were lining up for a classic late-June deal — messy but inevitable.Punchbowl’s Jake Sherman, who’s as wired in as it gets, detailed the emerging gap between the House and Senate versions of the bill. The Senate Finance Committee wants permanent tax breaks that sunset in the House version. They’re also pushing to modify or eliminate key Trump-era items — like the no-tax-on-overtime policy and new savings accounts for kids. There’s still no consensus on SALT either. Senate Republicans want to water down the $40,000 deduction cap that Trump himself agreed to. That would make some moderate House Republicans happy, but it could risk blowing up the agreement altogether. This is the stuff that actually matters — the policy guts that will be run past the parliamentarian and hashed out in closed-door meetings. But then, out of nowhere… Elon.Politics Politics Politics is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.MAGA Has a Specific TypeTwo days ago, Elon Musk posted that the big beautiful bill was a “disgusting abomination.” Then he followed it up by retweeting Rand Paul with the words “KILL the BILLL.” That’s not a passing criticism. That’s scorched-earth stuff. And when it comes from a guy like Elon — who has positioned himself as a billionaire warrior for the MAGA cause — it’s a challenge. So I did what I always do. I doomscrolled. Not for fun, but for you. To see who flinches. And here’s what I found: almost nobody followed his lead.Charlie Kirk, who had been fairly quiet on the bill, suddenly dropped a thread outlining “50 wins” from it — MAGA-branded talking points that sounded like they came from Speaker Johnson’s office. He didn’t mention Elon. He didn’t need to. The timing was the tell. He was staking a claim: this bill is ours. It’s Trump’s. And we’re backing it. Then came Catturd. If you don’t know about @Catturd2, well, that’s why you listen to this show. The dude’s a Twitter account run by a Florida musician, but in the MAGA ecosystem, his voice carries weight. When he turns, people follow. And he wasn’t with Elon either.Mike Cernovich — someone who’s ridden hard for Elon, slammed his enemies, carried water for his beefs — also pivoted. He made it clear that Trump’s agenda is what gets MAGA fired up, not fiscal purity. His message was simple: you might like Elon, but Trump’s the main character here. And look, none of these guys are policy wonks. But they are barometers. They’re not jumping to Elon’s defense. They’re lining up behind the machine.Last One In, First One OutElon is learning in real time what it means to be new money in a political world that runs on tenure and loyalty. MAGA isn’t a traditional political coalition. It’s more like a federation of tribes — influencers, donors, operators — loosely tied together by a shared orbit around Trump. And in that world, being flashy doesn’t count for much if you weren’t in the trenches in 2016 or 2020. Elon came on board when it was already a moving train. Buying Twitter, firing woke staff, bringing Trump back to the platform — all of that scored him points. But that’s not the same as being family.That’s why I keep coming back to the same thought: last one in, first one out. Musk might be the richest guy in the world. He might own the place where MAGA influencers gather. But the moment he stepped out of line, they let him drift. Not a coordinated takedown. Just silence. And silence is brutal. He’s not getting clowned like Bannon did when he got iced out. He’s just floating — a slow, silent uncoupling from the people who used to cheer his every post.Now, Mike Johnson is supposed to speak to Elon about the bill today. Maybe that call smooths things over. Maybe Russ Vought or Stephen Miller reels him back in. Maybe he gets a seat at the table, tweaks the AI language, and declares victory. But right now, he’s yelling about the CBO’s deficit projections and getting politely ignored. And the MAGA coalition — the one he thought he’d conquered — is moving on without him.Chapters(Minor mic issues during the first 3 minutes of our interview with Kevin, stick with it.)00:00:00 - Intro00:02:57 - Elon vs. the Big Beautiful Bill00:16:36 - Interview with Kevin Ryan00:41:38 - Update00:41:56 - Trump's Travel Ban00:46:09 - Karine Jean-Pierre's Book00:51:46 - AOC Endorses Zohran Mamdani00:56:36 - Interview with Kevin Ryan, con't01:35:46 - Wrap-up This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.politicspoliticspolitics.com/subscribe

Transcribed - Published: 5 June 2025

Elon Musk set off a grenade in conservative circles this week, trashing the one big, beautiful bill Trump has staked so much on. He didn’t just throw shade — he called it a “disgusting abomination,” backed Rand Paul’s $5 trillion deficit claim, and waved the American flag emoji as punctuation. This wasn’t a random tweet. This was Musk choosing to detonate right as Speaker Mike Johnson is working the Senate hard to shepherd this bill into law. Johnson, for his part, did respond, claiming he had a 20-minute phone call with Musk where the topic never came up. But c’mon — that silence says a lot. Either Johnson’s not telling the whole story, or Musk baited him. Neither looks great.The timing is brutal. Musk has been a reliable MAGA ally — hosting DeSantis’s launch, reshaping Twitter into a free speech battleground, becoming a key donor and message amplifier. When he turns on your signature policy, it signals open season. And it’s not just personal. Elon hates the EV credit phase-outs in the bill. He’s furious about the AI regulatory overrides that strip individual from states like California. And his businesses, from SpaceX to Starlink, all have reasons to be wary of the bill’s broader tech oversight. So what looked like a united conservative front just fractured — and it fractured loudly. This is the part of the process where fights get public. And loud. And weird.Politics Politics Politics is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.Iowa and the 2024 RemapIt’s moments like this that make me appreciate the Iowa caucus even more. Say what you will about the process — yes, it’s clunky, yes, it can be exclusionary — but nobody works harder at retail politics than Iowans. I’ve been in diners, VFW halls, and school gyms across that state. These are folks who grill candidates, push policy details, and actually pay attention. Compare that to South Carolina, which Biden bumped to the front of the line for the Democratic primary. That move was clearly strategic — to avoid an early embarrassment — but it came at a cost. The engagement just isn’t the same. You can walk into a bar in Manchester and get into a policy debate with a random guy sipping Busch Light. That’s not happening in Columbia.Now, there’s a window to fix it. With 2024 settled, both parties could realign the primary calendar — and they should. Let Iowa go first. Let New Hampshire follow. Put South Carolina third, Nevada fourth. Let people earn it. The current process is dominated by consultants who don’t want surprises. But surprises are good. They shake things up. They reveal flaws. They test candidates in real-time, not just in sanitized TV town halls. If you want to know who can campaign in a blizzard, let 'em face a real one. Bring back the vetting. Bring back the grit.Deal Deadlines and Tiers of ImportanceThen there’s the global chessboard. June marks the end of the 90-day tariff pause Trump announced on Liberation Day — his dramatic trade reset. That pause gave negotiators time to cut new deals, to defuse tensions. But with just weeks left, where are the deals? Trump hasn’t sealed anything. Not with China. Not with India. Not with Vietnam, or Mexico, or even Taiwan. Instead, he’s hosting white paper summits and showing off 2017 flashbacks. The branding is tight, but the substance is lagging.Look at the scoreboard. Ukraine was inching toward peace talks — then dropped a drone strike that disabled a third of Russia’s bomber fleet. That doesn’t scream “diplomatic breakthrough.” Gaza? The American-backed aid initiative is collapsing under mutual mistrust and unconfirmed shootings. We’re left trying to guess which footage is real and which claims are propaganda. And while all this plays out, the trade environment remains stuck. Japan, South Korea, Australia — they’re locked into frameworks that don’t need rewriting. The real action would be a comprehensive tariff reset with Mexico or Vietnam, or a groundbreaking semiconductor pact with Taiwan. But so far, we’re getting press releases, not treaties.So here’s how I see it. You’ve got three tiers of trade potential. Tier 1: countries that matter symbolically — Canada, UK, the Netherlands. Deals here look good but don’t move markets. Tier 2: mid-size powerhouses like South Korea, Japan, and Germany. All three matter for automotives, while South Korea and Japan both matter for their tech sectors. Finally, Tier 3 is where it counts: China, Mexico, Vietnam, Taiwan, India. If Trump can close one deal there, he regains the upper hand. If he can’t, he enters the summer with big talk and no wins — just in time for Senate Democrats to go on offense. Time is ticking.Chapters00:00:00 - Intro00:03:10 - Elon Trashes the BBB00:08:09 - Iowa Caucus 00:11:24 - Trump Trade Tiers00:22:14 - Interview with Michael Cohen00:49:52 - Update00:50:33 - Big Beautiful Bill Senate Discussions00:53:05 - Jaime Harrison Comments00:55:08 - Trump China Trade Talks00:57:23 - Interview with Michael Cohen, con’t.01:35:36 - Wrap-up This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.politicspoliticspolitics.com/subscribe

Transcribed - Published: 4 June 2025

When it comes to tariffs, we’ve done the hokey pokey and turned ourselves around — and yes, that is what it’s all about. Trump’s Liberation Day tariffs are back on the table, and it’s been a wild 24 hours.Right after I wrapped our paid bonus episode, a three-judge panel ruled that Donald Trump doesn’t have the authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act — the IEPA — to unilaterally place tariffs on foreign nations. That law, which dates back to the 1970s, gives the president emergency powers to impose economic sanctions or tariffs if there’s a national emergency. Trump had been using it as the backbone for his tariff strategy, claiming national emergency status and going after trading partners.The ruling, at least temporarily, blew that up. If Trump doesn’t have that authority, he loses a huge leverage point in trade negotiations. All of a sudden, the calls from the EU, from Japan, from India — which I’ve heard is close — they get a lot slower. The power dynamic shifts. Trump becomes just another guy asking for a deal, not the guy with a threat to back it up. And to be clear, he wasn’t actively raising tariffs — he’d actually pulled many of them back or paused them — but that’s part of the strategy. The threat of a tariff can be just as powerful as the tariff itself.The markets liked the news. Stocks surged. And Trump was caught in a classic rock-and-a-hard-place moment. But then, just as I was landing and debating whether to even record, the appellate court reverses the first ruling. Suddenly, Trump’s back in the game. His authority over the IEPA is restored… for now.Does this matter for what’s happening in the Senate right now? Probably not directly. But for trade negotiations? Absolutely. I think deals are going to move fast. If you’re a trading partner and you think there’s a window before this hits the Supreme Court — and it might — you move. You get your best deal now. You say, “Here’s the offer, take it or leave it,” and Trump might be more inclined to take it than he was before.I’m not a trade expert. I’m just calling it like I see it. But from the seat of my pants, this looks like a flashpoint. The kind of legal back-and-forth that opens the door to some quicker deals than we otherwise might’ve seen.Chapters00:00:00 - Intro00:00:55 - Interview with Kirk Bado00:47:30 - Update and Tariff Madness00:52:13 - Interview with Katherine Dee01:25:25 - Wrap-up This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.politicspoliticspolitics.com/subscribe

Transcribed - Published: 29 May 2025

This weekend, the New York Times ran a piece titled Six Months Later, Democrats Are Still Searching for the Path Forward, and it was bleak. The lead quote came from Anat Shenker-Osorio, a favorite of this show, describing Democrats as sloths, snails, and most devastatingly, a deer in headlights. That last one feels accurate, especially when you look at the post-election breakdown from Catalist, a Democratic-aligned polling firm. We’ll dive deeper into that next week with Michael Cohen, but the short version? The coalition looks grim.Democrats are losing ground, and it’s not just because of Joe Biden or Kamala Harris. It’s not just about the top of the ticket. It’s structural. They don’t have a message that resonates, and they don’t have a coalition that can win. When you look at how the electorate has shifted since 2012 — through 2016, 2020, and now 2024 — the trend is clear. Wide swaths of the country keep moving right. This is not just a Trump story. This is a cultural shift.Politics Politics Politics is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.There are a few bright spots — like John Ossoff. The Atlanta suburbs are still trending blue, which gives him a strong base going into his re-election. But one candidate’s survival isn’t a strategy. The bigger problem is Democrats losing voters they used to count on, and then reacting like anthropologists studying a foreign culture. Take the new $20 million project codenamed SAM — “Speaking with American Men.” The plan is to understand what language appeals to young men online and then buy ad space in video games. I’m not kidding.I’ll save you the $20 million. Want to understand American men? Go to a sports bar at lunch. Talk to the bartender. Watch what’s on TV. It’s going to be Capitals games, Commanders games, maybe Nationals if they’re hot. Ask what name the bartender uses — Commanders or Redskins — and pay attention. That’s a signal. Look around. You’ll see a guy without sleeves. His name is Pat McAfee. He parlayed a Barstool podcast into a national show that’s shaping how a huge swath of American men consume sports and culture.McAfee is the demographic. Not the man, but the space he occupies. You don’t need to book him — in fact, don’t. But understand what kind of guests are on his show. What they talk about. What they joke about. The cultural signals they send. Most aren’t overtly political, but they skew conservative. They care about sports, performance, and authenticity. They aren’t trying to be progressive heroes. They’re just being themselves — and Democrats don’t know how to speak to that.The real issue is that Democrats think everything is messaging. They believe their phrasing is so perfect, so tested, that if people just heard it the right way, it would work. But voters aren’t lab rats. They’re not waiting for the next DNC ad drop to form their opinions. They’re watching comedians joke about trans athletes. They’re laughing at jokes about liberal overreach. They’re reacting to a world where Democrats are often cast as anti-fun and anti-speech. And white men — yes, still the overwhelming majority of this country — don’t respond well to being told they’re the problem from the start.So how do you reach them? Start by understanding who’s already reaching them. Then think about what message would land quietly on a show like Pat McAfee’s. Not what would stand out. What would blend in. That’s the Rosetta Stone. Speak in a way that doesn’t sound like a speech. Get out of your own head. Stop trying to convert — start trying to connect.And meanwhile, while Democrats strategize over lunch buffets at luxury hotels, Trump is climbing in the polls. The idea that he’s getting “less popular” is just wrong. His lowest point was late April. Since then, his numbers have rebounded. His approval is hovering around 47 percent. That’s good — especially for someone who normally lives in the 30s. Right now, more Americans think the country is on the right track under Trump than they ever did under Biden. The direction-of-the-country numbers are strong. For Trump. That’s insane. And Democrats ignore it at their peril.They keep underestimating him. They keep assuming the messaging is enough. But Trump is talking about tax cuts for tips and overtime. Democrats are voting for them too — the Senate just passed a version 100 to 0. They know it polls well. They just don’t want to say it out loud unless it’s their version.Politics is about trust. And the Biden White House broke it. When it’s he said, she said, voters side with the one who hasn’t lied to them. That’s Trump right now. And if Democrats want to change that, they’ve got to start being honest — not just with the public, but with themselves.Chapters00:00:00 - Intro00:01:44 - Democrat Rebranding Struggles00:26:16 - Update00:27:34 - US-EU Trade Talks and Consumer Confidence00:31:32 - Senate Republican Fiscal Concerns00:34:34 - Covid Vaccine Recommendations Pulled00:37:52 - Interview with Juliegrace Brufke01:04:15 - Wrap-up This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.politicspoliticspolitics.com/subscribe

Transcribed - Published: 27 May 2025

The madman did it. Mike Johnson pushed the Big Beautiful Bill through the House in a razor-thin 215–214 vote, with one Republican voting present. It happened in the early hours of the morning, after an all-night session where, reportedly, one GOP member literally fell asleep during the vote. It’s wild how this keeps happening: Johnson, backed by Trump, threads the needle just enough to claim victory — first on his own speakership, then on the budget, and now on the crown jewel of Trump’s second-term domestic agenda.The vote was close, but this wasn’t chaos. It was strategy. Johnson avoided making promises, waited out the loudest factions, and let Trump do the squeezing. First, the SALT caucus got its $40,000 cap. Then, once the blue-state Republicans were on board, the House Freedom Caucus got summoned to the White House. Trump made it clear — get in line. And they mostly did.What’s Actually in the BillThe bill itself is massive. It permanently extends the 2017 Trump tax cuts. It temporarily exempts tips, overtime, and auto loan interest from taxes through 2028. It raises the SALT deduction cap to $40,000 for households earning up to $500,000. It imposes work requirements on Medicaid recipients aged 18 to 65 who don’t have disabilities or young children. It bans Medicaid and CHIP from covering gender-affirming care. It cuts federal funding to states offering Medicaid to undocumented immigrants.Then there’s the border and defense spending: $46.5 billion for the wall, $4.1 billion for more Border Patrol agents, $1,000 asylum application fees, nearly $150 billion for defense, including missile shields and naval expansion. It throws in a Trump Savings Account for kids, expands 529s for education, and guts clean energy tax credits earlier than expected. This is not a modest proposal. This is the full kitchen sink — and it cleared the House.The Congressional Budget Office says it’ll add $3.8 trillion to the deficit over the next decade. For a party that used to live and die by fiscal restraint, it’s a hell of a turn. And yet, what’s striking is that Democrats are the ones now talking about debt again. The shift is real. But the counterargument is simple: we’ve been living under this tax structure for seven years. Making it permanent just formalizes the status quo. The new spending and credits? That’s where the fight will be.Next Stop: The Senate WallNone of this becomes law unless it gets through the Senate — and that’s a very different battlefield. The GOP has three votes to spare. And their best lobbyist is JD Vance, who’s barely spent any time in the chamber. This is not the House. Rand Paul is a hard no. Ron Johnson is already calling out the deficit. Susan Collins is watching the optics. McConnell still looms over the process, even if he’s stepping back from leadership.The House version of this bill isn’t making it. Changes are coming — the question is whether they come from the right or the left. Johnson’s strategy got him this far. But in the Senate, Trump’s grip isn’t as strong, and the margin is even tighter. The message is clear: they passed it out of the House, but the real negotiation starts now.Chapters00:00:00 - Intro00:03:12 - Big Beautiful Bill Passes House00:13:34 - Interview with Ryan McBeth00:46:17 - Update00:47:21 - Israeli Embassy Shooting 01:02:26 - Senate Bill Response01:04:15 - Texas Hemp Ban01:06:06 - Interview with Ryan McBeth, cont.01:34:29 - Wrap-up This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.politicspoliticspolitics.com/subscribe

Transcribed - Published: 23 May 2025

Donald Trump went to Capitol Hill this week to push House Republicans across the finish line on his big domestic policy bill. Behind closed doors, he told conservatives not to “F— around with Medicaid,” and told blue-state Republicans to take the SALT deal on the table: $40,000 for four years, then snapping back to $30,000. That would cover about 90% of blue-state filers, but not the ones making the most noise. Even with Trump applying pressure, guys like Andy Harris and Mike Lawler are still holding out. Some members are softening, but others like Thomas Massie are dug in. So, for now, Speaker Mike Johnson’s goal of getting a vote within 48 hours is shaky at best.The bill itself is massive — over 1,100 pages, with tax cuts, defense spending increases, and border policy changes. It would still remove Medicaid coverage for more than seven million people, depending on which estimate you believe. And of course, any version that passes the House is going to get shredded in the Senate. Whatever they vote on now, they’ll end up voting on something worse later. So a lot of this feels like performance. The fight is real if you’re in the trenches, but from the outside, it looks like an inevitable mess.The bottom line is that they have to pass this. Everyone’s worried about the attack ads, about the carveouts, about what they’ll be blamed for, but if they don’t pass this, they’ve got nothing. No achievements. No wins. And that’s a death sentence for 2026. Trump knows it, and that’s why he’s pushing so hard. The longer this drags out, the more nervous the business community gets. Right now, things are relatively stable — tariffs are high but consistent, regulations are locked in, and the tax code hasn’t changed yet. That kind of stability is gold to investors. It gives them permission to move. If you pass this bill now, businesses start planning in Q3, making decisions in Q4, and consumers start to feel it by next summer — right as the midterms heat up.And that’s the ballgame. Republicans don’t want to be running in 2026 on the ghost of Joe Biden’s presidency. They want to run on Trump’s second-term economy. They want to say, “This is what we did. Do you want to go back?” That’s the message — and it only works if the economy is good. So from a strategic perspective, if you’re a Democrat, you want this thing to grind. Drag it out. Make the House Freedom Caucus fight harder. Blow it all up and pray the delay ruins the timeline. Because that’s the only way this thing doesn’t end in a campaign-ready boom for Republicans.My guess? The bill passes the House in the next five days. I don’t see what changes between now and the two-week delay the Freedom Caucus wants. Someone’s going to have to eat it, and most likely, that someone is going to realize there’s no better option coming. As for the SALT caucus — I’m still not sure what they’re waiting for. Whatever it is, it’s not making them look particularly sympathetic to the rest of the country.Chapters00:00:00 - Intro00:01:37 - Original Sin Book Thoughts (with Chris Cillizza)00:35:17 - Update00:39:13 - Big Beautiful Bull00:48:41 - Russia Talks00:53:17 - Kristi Noem00:57:42 - Original Sin and the State of Cable News (with Chris Cillizza)01:37:56 - Wrap-up This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.politicspoliticspolitics.com/subscribe

Transcribed - Published: 21 May 2025

Joe Biden has aggressive prostate cancer. That news dropped as we were getting ready to record today’s show, and it immediately redefined everything I had planned for this episode. The White House says he found out late last week. But after everything we’ve seen — after everything we now know — I just don’t buy it. Not on its face. Not without skepticism. And certainly not from a team that has serially misled the public about this president’s health.This isn’t partisan. This isn’t about political advantage. It’s about trust. And the Biden White House has burned every ounce of trust it ever had on the question of Joe Biden’s mental and physical condition. We were told he was sharp. We were told he was healthy. We were told the only concerns were conspiracy theories. Now we’re told he has bone-level prostate cancer and just found out a few days ago. The story does not add up.We’ve known — not speculated, but known — that Biden’s team actively suppressed signs of his decline. It’s the core premise of the new book Original Sin by Alex Thompson and Jake Tapper. In it, we learn the White House doctor predicted Biden would be wheelchair-bound in a second term. We hear about the memory lapses, the failures to recognize people close to him, the moments that were carefully hidden or brushed aside. The story isn’t new — it’s just finally being told with names attached. And that’s the part that stings.Because for those of us who were watching this unfold in real time, the media’s about-face is galling. Take Jake Tapper. He’s now co-author of the book and the face of its rollout — doing long, self-congratulatory segments on CNN about the secrets he’s finally exposing. But these weren’t secrets to people who were paying attention. Fox News ran segments on Biden’s decline all throughout 2023 and 2024. Clips went viral. The press dismissed them as “cheap fakes.” And now Tapper’s shocked — shocked — to find out the emperor has no clothes?That’s what grates. Not just the cover-up, but the theater around its unmasking. The same people who waved it away are now acting like they cracked the case. And worse, they’re treating the rest of us like we weren’t there watching them do it. CNN actually responded to a viral clip reel of Tapper’s past dismissals by calling it “disingenuously edited.” The same playbook they criticized the White House for using. You can’t gaslight people and then write a book about how gaslighting is wrong.And now we get to the real question: what did they know, and when did they know it? Did Biden already have this diagnosis when he decided to run for reelection? Did his inner circle? Did the press? These aren’t cynical questions — they’re essential ones. Because if the answer is yes, then everything about 2024 shifts. Every calculation, every debate, every moment the press refused to ask harder questions — it all changes. Because this wasn’t about a stutter or a slip of the tongue. This was about a man with a potentially terminal illness running for the most demanding job on the planet.The cleanest way for Biden to bow out was always going to be health-related. I said it on this show more than once. If he ever had to step aside, cancer would be the story. Not scandal, not defeat — just a body failing a man who still wanted to fight. I didn’t think he’d actually get cancer. But now that he has, the question isn’t whether he should drop out. The question is whether he was ever in the race honestly to begin with.We deserve the truth. Not just out of respect for the office, but because the American people shouldn’t be the last to know that their president is unwell. And certainly not after being lied to for years about how well he was.Chapters00:00 - Intro01:26 - Joe Biden’s Cancer Diagnosis13:04 - Jake Tapper’s CNN Broadcast27:17 - Wrap-up This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.politicspoliticspolitics.com/subscribe

Transcribed - Published: 18 May 2025

The Big Beautiful Bill is finally past the quiet phase. The behind-the-scenes negotiations have spilled into the open, and now we’re in the bloodletting. Speaker Mike Johnson wants this out of the House by Memorial Day, which means committee votes need to happen, and fast. But right now, the Budget Committee is a problem. Hardliners are balking — Ralph Norman, Josh Brecheen, and Chip Roy are all leaning no. They’re not satisfied with the Congressional Budget Office’s timeline for a cost estimate, and they’re worried the Medicaid changes could pressure red states into expanding coverage.Mike Lawler and Marjorie Taylor Greene are fighting on Twitter over SALT deductions — state and local tax breaks — and that fight is not going away. There’s talk of raising the cap from $30,000 to $40,000 or adjusting the phase-out thresholds. But this is exactly why they’re doing one big bill instead of multiple smaller ones. Everyone knew it was going to be painful. Nobody wanted to go through this kind of battle again and again for every policy item.Politics Politics Politics is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.Still, I’m bullish. It’s ugly right now, but that doesn’t mean it’s doomed. The usual sign of failure — a flood of press conferences from members declaring the bill dead — hasn’t happened. Republicans aren’t holding cameras. They’re texting reporters. They’re venting in group chats. But they’re not going on record saying they’ll tank Trump’s agenda. That’s a big difference. This isn’t like other bills I’ve seen die. It still feels like something they’re going to get through — just barely.The key players are all doing what they need to do. Trump is overseas for now, but his influence is still real. He got Johnson the speaker’s gavel. He’s kept this whole thing moving. When he’s back, the pressure campaign ramps up. Meanwhile, JD Vance is already starting his Senate charm offensive to get reconciliation done once it clears the House. They know they’ll lose a few senators, but they’re planning for that. The goal is to get something — anything — through.And here’s what’s actually in it: no tax on tips, no tax on overtime, and no tax on Social Security for anyone making under $150,000. Yes, those provisions sunset in four years, but let’s be honest — once they go into effect, they’re not going anywhere. Nobody’s going to vote to take those benefits away from working people. Republicans used to hate that logic — the “give a mouse a cookie” approach to entitlements — but now they’re writing the cookies themselves. And they’re going to love running on them.This bill is messy. It’s jammed with contradictions. It’s being held together with string and prayers. But I still think it passes. And if it does, the Trump administration gets to claim a huge legislative win — not just a headline, but real, sticky policy that people will feel in their paychecks. That’s the ballgame.Chapters00:00:00 - Intro00:03:52 - Big Beautiful Bill Progress00:15:51 - Interview with Bill Scher00:39:39 - Update00:40:23 - Inflation00:43:36 - Supreme Court Birthright Citizenship00:45:44 - Iran Nuclear Deal, "Sort Of"00:47:57 - The News Sheriff00:53:03 - Interview with Bill Scher (con't)01:18:02 - Wrap-up This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.politicspoliticspolitics.com/subscribe

Transcribed - Published: 16 May 2025

Donald Trump is rumored to have a plan to receive a $400 million plane from Qatar, retrofitted to serve as Air Force One. On its face, it’s a straightforward diplomatic gift to the United States, meant to replace aging presidential aircraft. But the controversy kicked into overdrive with reports that this plane could eventually end up in Trump’s hands personally, via his presidential library. That’s where things get murky.Let’s start with facts. The two current Air Force One planes have been flying since the George H.W. Bush era. They’re overdue for replacement, and Boeing was contracted to deliver new ones. But Boeing’s been a mess—delays, scandals, technical issues. Trump, frustrated with the pace, toured a Qatari 747-8 already fitted for luxury use. This plane is 13 years old, but still valued around $400 million.Politics Politics Politics is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.Now, Qatar is a massive buyer of American military hardware. We’re talking $26 billion in purchases over the past decade. In that context, a $400 million jet as a gesture of goodwill isn’t shocking. What makes this different is the personal angle. According to ABC’s original report, Trump’s library would receive the plane by January 1, 2029 — before Trump’s successor takes office, and potentially before Boeing’s replacements are ready. If true, that would mean Trump gets to keep a retrofitted Air Force One for personal use, while the next president is stuck with the old models.For me, that’s the red line. If Trump forces his successor to downgrade because he took the new plane for himself, that’s blatant self-dealing. If the plane stays in the rotation until Boeing delivers, and only then moves to his library, it becomes more of a vanity project — still unusual, but not unprecedented. Reagan’s old Air Force One is parked at his library, after all. You can even see it in some of Trump’s old debates, the ones held at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library.But Reagan’s plane wasn’t transferred to him personally right after his presidency. It stayed in service until Clinton’s term ended before being disassembled and reassembled in Simi Valley. Trump’s timeline — if ABC’s reporting holds — would be far more aggressive, and far more self-serving.The frustrating part is how little clarity we’ve gotten. Most coverage fixates on whether it’s “appropriate” for Qatar to give the U.S. a plane. That’s not the interesting question. The real issue is when Trump plans to take personal control of it. That’s what determines whether this is normal diplomatic horse-trading — or brazen corruption.Until we get a straight answer on that, this story stays in limbo. Potential scandal or overblown noise — we just don’t know yet.Chapters00:00:00 - Intro00:03:55 - Qatari Plane Deal00:18:10 - Update00:21:19 - John Fetterman00:24:52 - David Hogg00:27:13 - Inflation00:31:11 - Interview with Matt Laslo01:17:52 - Wrap-up This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.politicspoliticspolitics.com/subscribe

Transcribed - Published: 14 May 2025

Brian Kemp is out. No Senate run in 2026, and that shifts the entire field. Kemp was the Republican Party’s best shot at flipping the Georgia seat currently held by Jon Ossoff — and he knew it. He didn’t just flirt with the idea. He let it hang out there long enough for donors, strategists, and journalists to start treating it as likely. So when he made it official this weekend, it sent shockwaves through the Georgia GOP and national Republicans hoping for a clean, high-profile pickup in a battleground state.Let’s be clear: Kemp would’ve been a problem for Ossoff. He’s a two-term governor with a reputation for competency, no Trump baggage, and enough distance from the MAGA wing to appeal to suburban voters. He beat Stacey Abrams twice. He stared down Trump in 2020 and walked away stronger. There are few Republicans who can claim that kind of profile. Without him, the bench gets thin — and fast.Ossoff is already pulling in national dollars, and now he doesn’t have to spend the next 12 months preparing for a Kemp-style challenge. That gives him time to build narrative, define the race early, and lock down coalitions that might’ve been vulnerable in a high-turnout, split-ticket election. Democrats don’t have to win Georgia by a landslide — they just need to hold it. And in a cycle that’s already looking rough for Republicans in other swing states, the GOP needed Georgia to be easy. It’s not.Now the question becomes whether Republicans want to rally around a moderate and play defense, or roll the dice with a firebrand and try to rally the base. Either option carries risk. A moderate might not excite anyone. A MAGA pick might turn the whole race into a referendum on January 6 or Trump loyalty. And the problem with a crowded primary isn’t just messaging — it’s money. Ossoff gets to hoard his resources while Republicans knife each other in the dark.It’s early, but the GOP just lost its best card. And unless something big changes — a surprise retirement, a shocking recruit, a sudden scandal — this race has quietly shifted from “toss-up” to “lean blue.” Not because Ossoff is invincible. But because the Republican bench is looking thin, the calendar is ticking, and Brian Kemp just said, “No thanks.” Heck, if Marjorie Taylor-Greene steps in, it might just be Ossoff +7. And it will not be for lack of news coverage.Chapters00:00:00 - Intro00:02:48 - Brian Kemp Not Running for Senate00:06:18 - Interview with Aubrey Sitterson01:14:20 - Wrap-up This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.politicspoliticspolitics.com/subscribe

Transcribed - Published: 6 May 2025

May 2025 might go down as the most pivotal month of Donald Trump’s second presidency. The post-Liberation Day disruption gave him room to play the chaos card — but that only lasts so long. Now it’s time to deliver. And according to what the White House is telling Congress behind closed doors, a lot is in motion. Sixty countries are either actively negotiating trade terms or exchanging paperwork with the administration. Congress is being told these deals won’t require their approval, which Congress, for the record, does not agree with. But this is Trump we’re talking about — when has he ever waited for a vote?Still, the big names you’d expect — China, Canada, Mexico — aren’t in the mix. China’s radio silent, Mexico and Canada are being folded into existing USMCA renegotiations. That leaves three countries reportedly close to a deal: the United Kingdom, Australia, and most importantly, India. India isn’t just geopolitically important — it’s the key to rewriting how America competes with China. A deal there could shift the entire narrative.Why India Matters More Than You ThinkIndia is the crown jewel of this effort. There's personal chemistry between Trump and Modi, which helps. JD Vance just visited India, and his family ties only reinforce the good vibes. But this isn’t just a soft power thing. India offers cheap manufacturing, which Trump badly needs to offset Chinese trade disruption. If you’re going to tell a story about reindustrializing America and cutting reliance on Beijing, India is where you start.There’s also the intellectual property angle. India doesn’t have the same IP hang-ups as China, which means Trump could insert protections into this deal and claim it as a model for future negotiations — including, eventually, with China. It’s the kind of pivot that’s both symbolic and real. Add in niche export wins — like bourbon or Harley-Davidsons, which have demand in India but face big trade hurdles — and suddenly you’ve got tangible proof of progress.Fast Deals, Reversible WinsHere’s the catch: none of these deals are expected to go through Congress. They’re handshake deals. That means they can be reversed at any moment — by Trump himself. And that’s kind of the point. Trump wants to touch every single part of the negotiation. No detail moves without his approval. That gives him the power to declare victory on anything, even if the actual text doesn’t amount to much.So the real question isn’t whether Trump can get a deal. It’s whether he can get one that’s meaningful — and fast. Because right now, the administration needs wins. Not headlines. Not vibes. Wins. The stock market is shaky, the trade war with China is frozen, and the White House knows it’s currently heading into the midterms with a record that still feels unsettled. India might be the win they’ve been waiting for. But if it doesn’t land soon, the window to define this presidency might close a lot faster than anyone expects.Chapters00:00:00 - Intro00:00:15 - Tariff Negotiations00:10:11 - Worst State Party Draft, part one00:41:37 - Update00:42:36 - Mike Waltz Goes to the U.N.00:44:48 - Alien Enemies Act Ruling00:48:55 - Ukraine Mineral Deal00:51:55 - Worst State Party Draft, part two01:34:53 - Wrap-up This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.politicspoliticspolitics.com/subscribe

Transcribed - Published: 2 May 2025

Late last night, the news finally came in: the Liberal Party of Canada pulled off the upset and held onto parliamentary power. It wasn’t pretty. It wasn’t dominant. But they survived — and a few months ago, that seemed almost impossible. They had everything working against them: more than a decade in power, a deeply unpopular former prime minister they had to jettison, and an electorate that looked ready for change. Yet when the votes were counted, the Liberals were still standing.And you can’t tell this story without talking about Donald Trump. Trump has been a thorn in Canada’s side since his first term — publicly antagonizing Justin Trudeau, calling Canada the "51st state," and slapping brutal tariffs on Canadian goods. That lingering resentment became part of the political terrain in Canada. The Liberal candidate, Mark Carney, didn’t just have to run against Peter Poilievre and the Conservative Party — he got to run against the memory of Trump, and against the uncertainty that conservatives couldn't fully distance themselves from.Poilievre never figured out how to adapt. He spent too much time running a traditional opposition campaign and not enough time answering the deeper question a lot of Canadian voters were asking: would a Conservative government just invite more chaos with Trump? Carney seized on that. He didn’t have to make it the centerpiece of his campaign, but it was always there in the background. Steady hand versus risk. Familiarity versus volatility.And while some Conservatives are already spinning this as a "moral victory" because of how tight the race was, that’s not how elections work. A win is a win. In a parliamentary system, survival is everything. The Liberals get to control the agenda, pick the cabinet, and frame the narrative going into the next few years. That’s not moral victory — that’s real, tangible power. And for a party that looked like it was about to lose everything, it’s a remarkable political save.Now, the Liberals may still need a coalition with the NDP to govern effectively. It’s razor-thin. But that’s a separate conversation. The scoreboard is the scoreboard. And right now, the score says the Liberals survived. Trump’s shadow loomed large over this race — and in the end, it helped save the very people he’s spent years antagonizing.Chapters00:00:00 - Intro00:01:28 - WHCA Substack Party00:11:27 - Interview with Kevin Ryan00:28:46 - Update00:29:08 - Canadian Election Results00:31:38 - Big Beautiful Bill’s July 4th Deadline00:35:46 - Interview with Kevin Ryan, con’t00:57:28 - Wrap-up This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.politicspoliticspolitics.com/subscribe

Transcribed - Published: 29 April 2025

David Hogg, the vice chair of the Democratic National Committee, announced he’s spending $20 million through his group, Leaders We Deserve, to primary sitting Democratic incumbents. He’s targeting safe-seat veterans, mostly older members, and it’s kicking off a full-blown internal fight.DNC chair Ken Martin isn’t having it. He’s proposing a rule that would ban DNC leaders from participating in partisan primaries — meaning Hogg would either have to step down or drop the activist role. The rule’s set to be debated at the DNC’s August meeting, and Hogg’s already digging in, saying he’ll fight to stay. Martin’s also announced a $1 million-a-month allocation to state parties, saying the DNC needs to decentralize. The real translation? Tension is so high they’re trying to buy unity.But here’s the thing — I actually think Hogg is right. The Democratic Party would benefit from some turnover. There are plenty of incumbents who have grown comfortable, complacent, and maybe even a little out of step. At the same time, that’s only half the issue. Because the problem with tossing out incumbents is you need to replace them with winners. These older Democrats have won election after election, and that’s not something you just replicate by parachuting in a 24-year-old with a TikTok following and a podcast. Safe seats aren’t invincible. Primaries can backfire. And while I’m all for change, I’m also for winning.The larger problem here is that you can’t be both the referee and the quarterback. If you’re helping to write the rules for how the party operates, you don’t get to break them for your own political goals. It’s not about silencing voices — it's about basic conflict of interest. If the DNC is supposed to be the governing body that creates a level playing field, its leaders can’t be in the middle of bloodying that field themselves.Hogg was already a controversial pick. He’s got detractors inside and outside the party. He’s drawn criticism not just from Republicans or centrists, but even from fellow gun control activists. The fact that this move feels more like a campaign than a strategic plan doesn’t help. It feels loud. It feels disruptive. And in a moment when Democrats are trying to project unity — especially heading into an election where every House seat could make or break their control — it feels reckless.The reality is that American politics is in a narrow-band era. Gerrymandering, polarization, and party-line voting mean that major swings are less likely. Which makes every seat even more valuable. We’re not in a 60-seat blowout environment anymore. We’re in a +5, -5, maybe +15 cycle. That means replacing a proven vote-getter with someone untested — even in a “safe” district — can be dangerous.So yeah, I think Hogg is right that the party needs to evolve. But I also think he’s wrong to do it this way. Because if it leads to chaos, to even a few avoidable losses, he’s not just risking some outdated Democrats — he’s risking the whole agenda. And if he’s not willing to see that, then maybe Ken Martin’s rule isn’t such a bad idea after all.Check out Gabe’s reporting at The Free Press!Chapters00:00:00 - Intro00:01:55 - DNC Confusion00:05:43 - Interview with Gabe Kaminsky00:25:39 - Update00:25:58 - Ukraine Peace Deal00:29:42 - Voter ID00:31:24 - Canadian Election00:36:40 - Interview with Gabe Kaminsky, continued01:03:33 - Wrap-up This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.politicspoliticspolitics.com/subscribe

Transcribed - Published: 24 April 2025

There’s a civil war happening inside the MAGA coalition, and unless you’re really in the weeds, you probably haven’t heard much about it. It’s not being covered seriously, either by the traditional media or the independent press. And that’s a shame — because it pits two foundational visions of conservatism against each other. On one side, you have Grover Norquist and his ironclad “no new taxes” pledge. On the other, you have Steve Bannon and his populist charge to eat the rich.Norquist has spent decades making sure no Republican dares raise taxes. His philosophy is clear: low taxes are good for everyone, rich or poor, and raising them is political suicide. He’s survived every GOP iteration — from neocon war hawks to MAGA populists — by keeping that line firm. But now, Trump’s “one big, beautiful bill” may include a tax hike on the wealthy. Norquist is sounding the alarm, warning that breaking this promise would be as foolish as George H.W. Bush’s infamous “read my lips” moment.Meanwhile, Bannon doesn’t just want to raise taxes — he wants to send a message. He sees MAGA as a working-class movement, and taxing the rich is part of proving that Wall Street, Silicon Valley, and the GOP’s old donor class no longer control the party. It’s the clearest philosophical fault line we’ve seen on the right in years. If the GOP embraces even a modest tax hike on the wealthy, it could mark the end of a Reagan-era consensus that has defined Republican politics for half a century.Politics Politics Politics is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.And yet, barely anyone is talking about it. Not because it isn’t interesting, not because it isn’t important, but because media — mainstream and independent — is stuck on one setting: “trouble for Trump.” It’s a framing device. Every Trump story must either confirm that he’s a danger to democracy or a bumbling fool. Anything else? Not interesting enough to cover.Steve Bannon, who’s all over mainstream shows like Real Time with Bill Maher and Stephen A. Smith’s podcast, is out here advocating a radical repositioning of the Republican tax platform — and the headlines are all about whether Trump should run for a third term. And I get it, that’s the clickier angle. But it’s also lazy. We’re watching tectonic plates shift, and we’re still playing with bumper stickers.That’s not just a mainstream media problem, by the way. It’s an independent media problem too. There are great voices on Substack and elsewhere that have done real work to break free from traditional narratives. And yet, over the last few weeks, I’ve seen far too much content boil down to one question: “Is this an outrage? Yes or no?” And when the answer is always “yes,” you’re not informing anymore — you’re reinforcing.My goal isn’t to register my opinion on every current thing. My goal is to give you something that still feels relevant five years from now. Something you can remember discovering here before it hit the mainstream. I’m not always going to say the thing that fits into someone’s ideological slot. That’s going to disappoint people sometimes. I get that. But I hope the tradeoff is worth it. Because if you’re giving me your time and maybe even your money, I owe you something rare. Something original.Something honest.Chapters00:00:00 - Intro00:01:58 - MAGA’s Secret Civil War00:19:35 - Update00:21:05 - Signalgate 2.000:27:14 - Pope Francis00:30:51 - Student Loan Debt Collection00:34:50 - Interview with Dave Leventhal01:13:34 - Canadian Election with Evan Scrimshaw01:27:11 - Wrap-up This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.politicspoliticspolitics.com/subscribe

Transcribed - Published: 23 April 2025

In a recent Oval Office meeting, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni sat across from Donald Trump as part of a European Union effort to navigate the ongoing trade turbulence. The meeting was cordial enough. Meloni emphasized transatlantic unity and expressed hope for deeper economic collaboration. Trump, however, was unmoved. He praised Meloni personally, but made his stance clear: the U.S. is not in a rush to finalize trade deals. According to him, tariffs are “making the United States rich,” and other countries want deals more than he does.This exchange happened during the 90-day pause in Trump’s Liberation Day tariffs — a moment intended, at least in theory, to give global leaders time to negotiate. But what the meeting really signaled is that Trump views this pause as leverage, not compromise. Yes, he did lower EU import tariffs from 20% to 10%, but that move was largely a reaction to bond market jitters. When it comes to negotiating with Europe, he’s staying firm.Meloni’s presence is notable. She’s a controversial figure in Europe — once derided by the American press as a far-right nationalist and compared to Mussolini. But in this moment, she’s being positioned as the EU’s Trump whisperer. She attended Trump’s inauguration. He’s reportedly fond of her. He even accepted an invitation to visit Rome. But none of that moved the needle in this meeting.What Trump wants is access to European markets. But in European politics, protectionism isn’t just a policy — it’s a survival tactic. Leaders there know that anything perceived as selling out local interests could cost them their jobs. Italy, for example, has a trade surplus with the U.S., not because of anything shady, but because Americans genuinely love Italian exports: high-end fashion, food, luxury goods. We buy a lot from them. They don’t buy much from us. That’s not an imbalance that tariffs alone can fix.So the real question is: what happens next? Trump has all but said he’s happy to wait everyone out. That leaves European economies in a holding pattern. It leaves small and medium U.S. businesses — especially those tangled up in international supply chains — in limbo. And it leaves Meloni with the unenviable job of being the friendly face of a negotiation that isn’t really moving.Chapters00:00:00 - Intro00:03:13 - Interview with Gabe Fleisher00:23:00 - Update00:23:36 - Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s Visit00:27:44 - Birthright Citizenship Arguments00:30:05 - FSU Shooting00:31:47 - Interview with Gabe Fleisher, con’t00:59:13 - Wrap-up This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.politicspoliticspolitics.com/subscribe

Transcribed - Published: 18 April 2025

It was just last week when the Trump administration hit pause on its Liberation Day tariffs — except when it came to China. Not only were they excluded from the pause, they got slapped with additional hikes, escalating what had already started to look like an all-out trade war. Then came Saturday morning’s Customs and Border Patrol announcement, which seemed to undercut all of that: nearly 60% of Chinese exports, including smartphones, laptops, and semiconductors, were apparently exempt from the new tariffs.So, what happened? Did the White House backtrack? Was this a walk-back in disguise? The administration scrambled to clarify. Their explanation: those goods are being set aside into their own “buckets” — alongside other key industries like cars and steel — for future, tougher action. These aren’t exemptions, they insist, just part of a long-term plan. The reason for the sudden PR push? According to Axios’ Mark Caputo, Trump simply doesn’t like the words “exemption” or “exception.” He felt too many were granted in his first term and didn’t want the headline suggesting he’d lost his edge.But let’s be honest: This is hair-splitting. Whether you call them buckets or carveouts, the reality is a significant chunk of Chinese goods aren’t being hit right now, and the market knows it. The real question is whether the administration is buying time, recalibrating, or trying to thread the needle between tough-on-China optics and economic stability.Saber Rattling, Delistings, and Peasant TalkIn the meantime, tensions are ramping up. The U.S. is now considering delisting nearly 300 Chinese companies from American stock exchanges — a move that’s part economic pressure, part political theater. The legal foundation? The Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act, which requires financial transparency from foreign firms. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Senator Rick Scott are reportedly behind the push, with Trump expected to lean on executive orders to expedite the process if necessary.Naturally, China isn’t taking this lightly. In response, they’ve begun blocking deliveries of Boeing jets, and the rhetoric has turned acidic. China's Hong Kong and Macau Affairs Office issued a statement saying, in part, “Let those peasants in the United States wail in front of five thousand years of Chinese civilization.” That’s not diplomatic posturing — that’s a full-throated nationalist flare-up, made more surreal by the fact that JD Vance himself had recently referred to Chinese laborers as “peasants” on Fox News.And through all of this, both sides are playing the “we’re open to talks, but we won’t be the first to call” game. It’s juvenile, it’s geopolitical theater, and it’s exactly the kind of posture that leaves markets — and companies — dangling.What Happens Next?Here's where I land: I don’t think we’re going back to “normal” with China anytime soon. The issues the U.S. wants addressed — IP theft, forced joint ventures, restricted market access — aren’t things China’s going to give up easily, if at all. So yes, the tariffs might eventually get reshuffled or reduced. But the era of posturing, of economic nationalism, of strategic decoupling? That’s here to stay.The polling shows Americans are broadly in favor of being tougher on China — until, of course, it hits them in the wallet. That’s where this whole thing could flip. For now, though, the administration seems fine dragging this out. Tariffs, carveouts, buckets, delistings — it’s all part of the same dance. And we’re still in the first few steps.At least that’s this peasant’s opinion.Chapters00:00 - Intro02:14 - US-China Trade War Continues11:45 - Update13:13 - AOC Fundraising Record15:15 - Andrew Cuomo NYC Race17:22 - Brian Kemp’s Senate Potential22:22 - Interview with Tom Merritt49:59 - Wrap-up This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.politicspoliticspolitics.com/subscribe

Transcribed - Published: 16 April 2025

Liberation Week has come and gone, and now we’re in the pause phase. The tariffs? Temporarily stalled. The market? Down, then up, then down again. We’re in a holding pattern — with one major exception: the trade war with China is not only still on, it’s intensifying.So what did we learn from all this? The answer starts and ends with Trump. The Democrats have branded him the “chaos president,” and they might not be wrong — but maybe not in the way they think. I don’t believe Trump sees chaos as a liability. I think he sees it as a strength. When the world is spinning, he can sit back, watch the options unfold, and pick the off-ramp that benefits him most.This isn't about 4D chess or reckless stumbling. It’s about comfort in disorder. Trump’s not detail-oriented. He doesn’t care if the tariffs were slapped together or if mixed messages were coming out of his administration. That’s not the game he’s playing. He thrives in the swirl, in the noise, and when the moment is right, he chooses a direction — and makes a deal.This matters politically. If the economy craters, Trump owns his executive-order recession. But if it doesn’t? If this all just amounts to turbulence before stabilization? Then Democrats are stuck.Because for all the clumsiness and confusion, Trump did a thing. And that matters. In a political world where voters are constantly begging politicians to just do something, Trump did. Democrats will struggle to cut through that with a message if the damage doesn’t materialize — or worse, if voters feel like they’re seeing results.Which brings us to the working class, to the labor unions, to voters in Ohio, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. Does a falling stock market hurt them the way it hurts Wall Street? Or are they more focused on jobs, reshoring, and seeing a president at least pretend to care about their industries?That’s the gamble Democrats are walking into. Now they have to figure out how to respond to it.The Trump Campaign, RewrittenIf you’re like me, you probably went into 2024 expecting another messy, chaotic Trump campaign — full of infighting, wild pivots, and, frankly, incompetence. But Revenge by Alex Isenstadt tells a very different story. It’s the first real deep dive into what made Trump’s third run for the White House so much more stable and effective, and honestly, I think it’s a must-read.This book doesn’t just explain how the campaign functioned — it shows how Trump evolved. He may still be the same bombastic figure, but the operation around him was leaner, smarter, and built to survive the spotlight. The team of Suzy Wiles and Chris LaCivita comes off as professional, savvy, and above all, in control. They’re not drama-free, but they’re competent — and that’s a big departure from past cycles. Trumpworld has often been defined by volatility. This time, it was defined by cohesion.One of the most compelling parts of the book is how it tracks Trump’s own evolution over two pivotal moments: when it became clear he could go to jail, and when he nearly died. Those aren’t just plot points — they’re moments that reshape how a person approaches power. Isenstadt paints a picture of a Trump who, while still instinct-driven, begins to understand the stakes in a deeper, more self-preserving way. It doesn't make him less Trump, but it does add a new layer to how he maneuvers.Winners, Losers, and the Veep PickThe behind-the-scenes of the VP selection process is where the book truly shines. JD Vance and his team played the long game masterfully. They activated the right surrogates, moved in sync with the campaign’s tone, and created a role that added tangible value to the ticket. Isenstadt captures not just the strategy but the discipline, something we hadn’t really seen in previous iterations of MAGA campaign staffing. It feels like a glimpse into the next phase of the movement, where operatives are less bomb-throwers and more builders.Then there are the losers. Corey Lewandowski is treated with near-universal disdain by sources — portrayed as an unstable, self-interested distraction. Natalie Harp, known as the “human printer” for how closely she follows Trump, is mocked for her over-the-top loyalty. These aren’t random asides — they're repeated themes, echoed by multiple voices, and they speak to a Trump operation that’s becoming more discerning about who actually adds value versus who just adds noise.A Must-Read for 2024 Watchers — and BeyondWhat makes Revenge stand out is that it’s not breathless or fawning. It’s sober, well-sourced, and focused. It reads like a campaign post-mortem, but for a campaign that’s still alive and well. And in doing so, it provides a roadmap — not just for how Trump won again, but for how the infrastructure around him is solidifying into something more lasting. If you’re trying to understand where MAGA goes from here, this is the text you start with.If you're following this stuff closely — whether as a political junkie, strategist, or just someone trying to make sense of the world — Revenge isn’t just good. It’s essential. Trumpworld has never looked this coordinated, and Isenstadt gives us the clearest picture yet of how it happened.But don’t take my word for it. Read it yourself!Chapters00:00:00 - Intro00:00:17 - Trump’s Tariff Strategy00:13:00 - Revenge Book Report and Analysis00:21:38 - Update00:22:08 - House Budget Framework00:25:12 - Security Clearances Revoked00:27:01 - Chris Sununu Not Running for Senate in 202600:29:31 - Interview with Revenge’s Alex Isenstadt01:03:00 - Wrap-up This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.politicspoliticspolitics.com/subscribe

Transcribed - Published: 10 April 2025

After several days of panic in the markets, the Dow Jones Industrial average is rebounding. Why? It seems as if the Liberation Day tariffs may be leading to new trade deals.The market swoon and lack of clarity has put the Trump administration in the wilderness. Is the goal to really bring all trade deficits to zero? Do we want our children screwing together iPhones as a career? Or is this just a set up for Trump to schedule a month long rose garden signing ceremony where world leaders line up single file to welcome American exports?Today, we talk to our logistics expert Big Jim and check in with J.D. Durkin to figure out whether Trump’s tariffs mark a shift toward isolation, or just a high-stakes negotiating move. Is this a reset of global trade, or just a pause before the next deal? We’re on the clock, because by the time this drops, the whole game might have changed.Chapters00:00:00 - Intro00:02:44 - Interview with Big Jim00:43:02 - Update00:45:09 - Supreme Court Decision Over Alien Enemies Act00:48:30 - June 14th Military Parade00:49:54 - House Democrat Seat Targets00:52:34 - Interview with J.D. Durkin01:35:18 - Wrap-up This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.politicspoliticspolitics.com/subscribe

Transcribed - Published: 8 April 2025

“Liberation Day” has come and gone. The massive tariff announcement from the White House that landed just after markets closed on Wednesday. It’s a sweeping 10% universal tariff on all goods, effective Saturday, April 5th, with even higher rates for countries like China (34%), the EU (20%), Japan (24%), and an eyebrow-raising 46% for Vietnam. Cars assembled abroad? They’re getting hit with a 25% tariff starting May 3rd.Put simply, the market didn’t take kindly to this. It’s been a financial bloodbath: the Dow fell 1,400 points (around 3.8%), with the S&P and NASDAQ down even more. Apple and Nvidia alone lost a combined $470 billion in value, and the dollar hit a six-month low. Investors are clearly spooked by what could be the beginning of a global trade war. I’m not an economist, and I plan to have some real-deal experts on the show next week to discuss this in more detail, but from where I sit, this feels like a high-stakes gamble.Politically, this is an all-in move by Trump. If his critics are right, this could usher in financial ruin. But if the market recovers, prices stabilize, and jobs return, then maybe — just maybe — he’s onto something. The key indicators to watch: inflation and jobs. If grocery bills soar, he’s in trouble. If not, and if some manufacturing jobs make their way back to the U.S., this could be a paradigm shift.We’re witnessing something that happens maybe once in a generation — one of America’s major political parties changing its stance on a foundational economic principle. The GOP, long champions of free trade, are now planting their flag in protectionist soil. I grew up associating tariffs with progressive, union-backed economic arguments. Yet here we are, with a Republican president pushing a policy that would’ve made progressives cheer in decades past.Trump’s economic approach would have been seen as left-wing populism not too long ago. The idea that tariffs can be used to protect American jobs is not new, but seeing it come from the right is a dramatic turn. It makes this moment politically fascinating, even if it brings financial risk.The big question remains: who’s right? Every economist I’ve ever read has warned against tariffs, citing global market efficiencies and the cost to consumers. But Trump is betting on a different equation — one where protecting American industries and reducing the trade deficit leads to long-term gains.As I look at this from my seat, the numbers make me queasy. A 46% tariff on Vietnam because of a trade deficit calculation? That feels arbitrary at best. Aiming for a zero trade deficit with every nation doesn’t necessarily reflect economic reality. We’ll see how this unfolds, but for now, it’s a major inflection point in both economic policy and political identity.Chapters00:00:00 - Intro and Tariff Thoughts00:09:29 - Interview with Karol Markowicz00:25:00 - Update00:26:39 - Eric Adams Goes Independent00:30:10 - NSC Firings00:33:11 - Senate Republican’s Budget Plan00:37:28 - Interview with Karol Markowicz, continued01:06:13 - Wrap-up This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.politicspoliticspolitics.com/subscribe

Transcribed - Published: 3 April 2025

Fight: Inside the Wildest Battle for the White House is a detailed account of the unraveling within the Democratic Party, and it starts with a shocking reality: Co-authors Jonathan Allen and Amie Parnes didn’t originally intend to write this book. The result is a work that skips over primaries but captures, in vivid detail, the implosion of Joe Biden’s re-election effort as 2024’s political battles came to a head.Reading it, I was stunned at the depth of denial w ithin the Biden White House. The President’s mental decline — obvious in isolated public moments — was a constant behind the scenes. Everything from oversized fonts on cue cards to aides using Day-Glo tape to guide his steps in the White House painted a troubling picture. And no one, not even his closest confidants or family, could convince him to step aside.Politics Politics Politics is a reader-supported publication. To receive two bonus episodes a week, consider becoming a paid subscriber.What emerges from Fight is a picture of a campaign built on delusion. Aides and strategists twisted themselves into knots to compensate for a candidate who was no longer capable of meeting the demands of the presidency. Biden's infamous “Where’s Jackie?” moment, where he searched for a deceased congresswoman, is only one of many jarring anecdotes.Eventually, the dam broke. Chuck Schumer’s blunt conversation with Biden about waning Senate support coincided with Trump being shot in Butler — two seismic events on the same day. For all the chaos that defined the Biden campaign, that moment marked a pivot.Kamala's Rise and the GOP MachineKamala Harris’s takeover of the Democratic ticket happened with surprising efficiency. Despite opposition from heavyweights like Nancy Pelosi and Barack Obama, who preferred Gretchen Whitmer and wanted a mini-primary, Harris’s team moved quickly to shut down all challengers. They outmaneuvered everyone, including J.B. Pritzker’s billions, and solidified her position.Still, old habits died hard. Many of the Biden-era staffers, including campaign manager Jen O’Malley Dillon, were kept on. It was a costly mistake. The same strategic paralysis that haunted Biden’s run persisted. One of the most telling moments? The botched attempt to land Kamala on Joe Rogan’s podcast — a micromanaged mess that ended with Trump getting the coveted spot instead.In stark contrast, the Trump campaign is depicted as ruthlessly efficient. They knew their weaknesses (Trump’s tendency to force headlines) and their strengths (his appeal on unconventional platforms like Theo Von’s podcast). Susie Wiles and Chris LaCivita emerge as the stars — people who knew how to play the game and win. Even a brief internal hiccup involving Corey Lewandowski was swiftly handled without much in the way of fallout.The Scorecard: Who Rose, Who FellFight functions as a political report card as much as a narrative. On the Democratic side, it's a tale of lost influence. Jen O'Malley Dillon, once considered a top operative, is portrayed as a non-responsive, bunker-minded leader. Barack Obama, too, takes a hit. Despite pulling the strings to push Biden off the ticket, he couldn’t get his preferred successor in place or move the needle on the campaign trail.And that may be the most sobering takeaway. Obama, once the undisputed leader of the Democratic Party, couldn’t rally it. His influence is clearly waning — and the next Democratic president might not treat him with the reverence millennials once did.Meanwhile, on the Republican side, the power players are clear. Wiles and LaCivita are now kingmakers. Tony Fabrizio’s polling proved consistently accurate. Alex Bruesewitz reinvented Trump’s online presence for a younger generation. If Trumpism persists, these are the architects.I strongly recommend Fight. Whether you’re a political junkie or just trying to make sense of how the 2024 election unfolded, it’s essential reading. Parnes and Allen provide not just insider details but clarity in the chaos.Read it yourself. Then let me know what you think.Chapters00:00:00 - Intro00:01:20 - Fight Book Report and Analysis00:28:13 - Update00:29:35 - Marine Le Pen Sentenced, Fined, and Barred from Politics in France00:32:37 - Tuesday Special Elections Preview00:37:26 - Interview with Fight’s Jonathan Allen and Amie Parnes01:11:43 - Wrap-up This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.politicspoliticspolitics.com/subscribe

Transcribed - Published: 31 March 2025

Elise Stefanik, once considered a front-runner for Donald Trump’s vice presidential slot and more recently tapped as the next U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations, has been asked to withdraw from the nomination. The directive came directly from Donald Trump, urging her to return to the House of Representatives — a move that has left many observers puzzled, especially since Stefanik had already begun a farewell tour of her district.This surprise reversal raises questions about the strategic reasoning behind Trump’s decision. The timing, the political stakes, and the looming legislative calendar all appear to be key components in a much larger game of congressional chess.A central concern appears to be a special election in Florida. Polling data from Fabrizio Ward — helmed by Trump’s trusted pollster Tony Fabrizio — shows the Republican candidate with only a three-point lead in a district that Trump carried by 30 points in the last election. The narrowing margin is attributed not just to candidate quality, but also a significant financial disparity: Democrats have outspent Republicans by over $8 million. This disparity has translated into heavier air traffic and visibility for the Democratic challenger.Speculation suggests Trump may be trying to protect the Republican majority in the House, fearing it could be further weakened by Stefanik’s departure. But some political watchers — myself included — argue that this explanation is too simplistic and out of step with Trump’s usual political instincts.A more intricate and possibly more compelling reason involves legislative mechanics in New York. Stefanik has not officially resigned from the House. If she had, Governor Kathy Hochul — who, as a Democrat, has little incentive to rush — would have 90 days to call a special election. Starting that clock now would push any vote into late June, possibly beyond the key reconciliation package deadline. That seat, currently held by Stefanik, could be unavailable during crucial legislative moments.Further complicating the issue, a proposed bill in the New York State legislature would allow the governor to delay special elections until the next general election. If passed, this would effectively remove Stefanik’s seat from the House until 2026, robbing Republicans of a vote not only for the rest of this year but most of next year as well.This development underscores how thin the Republican majority truly is. Stefanik stepping away — even temporarily — represents a potentially significant loss in the vote count. With both the House and Senate reportedly aligning this week on legislative priorities, every vote counts more than ever.Stefanik, having exited Republican leadership and publicly prepared for her transition to the UN role, now finds herself in a politically awkward position. She will likely need a face-saving path back into House leadership — an effort that could trigger even more internal headaches for the GOP.Whether this pivot was prompted by a cold read of Florida polling numbers or a strategic maneuver to preserve legislative power, the consequences are clear: political timing and control of congressional votes are dictating decisions at the highest levels of Republican leadership.Chapters00:00:00 - Intro00:00:20 - Elise Stefanik Asked to Withdraw00:08:03 - Interview with Michael Cohen00:25:41 - Update00:27:28 - Student Visa Deportations00:30:11 - HHS Job Cuts00:31:48 - MS-13 Leader Arrested00:35:47 - Interview with Michael Cohen, cont.01:19:12 - Wrap-up This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.politicspoliticspolitics.com/subscribe

Transcribed - Published: 28 March 2025

This week, something truly surreal happened — or was revealed to have happened — thanks to, of all people and places, Jeffrey Goldberg of The Atlantic. He was added to a Signal group chat that included essentially all of the national security members from Donald Trump’s cabinet. It’s one of the most Veep-like scandals we've seen in a long time. I even saw one joke online that the person who added him must have thought he was Jonah from Veep.Now, I’ve got one big point to make, and then a few smaller ones. Here’s the big one upfront: Mike Waltz screwed up. Badly. This isn’t just an oopsie — you don’t create a Signal group discussing bombing the Houthis in Yemen and accidentally add someone like Jeffrey Goldberg. You don’t add your mom. You don’t add your college roommate. And you absolutely do not add Jeffrey Goldberg.If you’re not familiar with Goldberg, he’s a longtime media figure who played a pretty colorful role in the lead-up to the Iraq War and has since become one of the most vocal Trump antagonists in mainstream media. The Atlantic — once a home for serious feature writing — is now almost entirely a laundering house for anti-Republican takes. So when you add that guy to your Signal group, you should never be trusted with a phone again. Seriously.That’s the main takeaway. But I’ve got three smaller points that I think are worth diving into.First, let’s talk about Jeffrey Goldberg himself. If you’ve ever felt misled in the lead-up to the Iraq War, you might want to revisit some of his early work — he was one of the people laying down those breadcrumbs. And in this latest piece for The Atlantic, where he reveals the Signal chat — including screen grabs of Pete Hegseth, JD Vance, Tulsi Gabbard, Scott Bessent, Stephen Miller, and others — he goes dark on the details when it comes to what he describes as military plans.He claims they discussed confidential strategies about striking the Houthis in Yemen, and if this had come from anyone else, I might believe it. But it’s Jeffrey Goldberg. So, I don’t know. The fact that it was him added to the group is what gives the Trump camp’s defense — that there was no classified info shared — any credibility. Still, how does this even happen? And if someone was dumb enough to add Goldberg, were they also dumb enough to drop classified intel in an unsecured chat? Possibly.Second, let’s talk about Signal. It’s an encrypted messaging app, popular with journalists and hackers for a reason. It’s end-to-end encrypted, meaning messages are harder to intercept. But security depends on the user. MG, an InfoSec expert and a listener of this show, had a great thread on X explaining how to actually use Signal securely. It involves checking secure keys to verify identities — something that clearly wasn’t done here.Then there’s Ryan McBeth, who made a solid point in a recent video: secure systems are only as effective as the people using them. If secure lines are too clunky or inconvenient, people won’t use them correctly. His take? Issue secure smartphones to everyone dealing with national secrets. Using consumer apps like Signal just isn’t enough.Lastly, and this is the closest thing to original reporting I have on this: Signal is the app of choice for Trump-world. Everyone I know who’s interacted with the Trump campaign or administration did so over Signal. So it’s no surprise that this chat happened there.That’s what I’ve got on this whole Signal debacle. We’ll see where it all goes from here.Chapters00:00:00 - The Signal Scandal00:12:40 - Intro and Florida’s Special Election00:17:52 - Interview with Kirk Bado00:22:16 - Interview with Kirk Bado (post-sports talk)01:01:43 - Update01:02:34 - Congressional Republicans Facing Budget Standoff01:04:19 - Russia and Ukraine Navigational Agreements01:06:28 - Direction of USA Poll01:10:18 - Interview with Matthew Frank01:40:09 - Wrap-up This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.politicspoliticspolitics.com/subscribe

Transcribed - Published: 26 March 2025

The biggest political story in America right now isn’t about a campaign, a scandal, or even a vote. It’s something far more fundamental: Donald Trump’s clash with the judiciary.It’s the kind of confrontation that doesn’t just make headlines — it shifts the tectonic plates of our democracy. It forces us to look hard at the limits of executive power, the independence of the courts, and whether the guardrails of our system are holding up or giving way.At the center of it all: Trump’s use of the Alien Enemies Act to deport alleged members of the Tren de Aragua gang, sending them to a supermax prison in El Salvador. One flight, carrying deportees, was already in the air when a judge ruled the move illegal. That flight didn’t turn around.That was the spark.Suddenly, it wasn’t just another Trump-era controversy. It was a constitutional crisis.What Happens When Trump Defies a Judge?The reaction was swift and furious. The noise from the media, legal scholars, activists, and political commentators reached a full roar. Was Trump defying the courts? Were judges overreaching their authority? Were we witnessing the collapse of the basic balance of powers in real time?Some folks lost their minds.And honestly, I get it. If you squint hard enough, this looks like the beginning of a genuine authoritarian slide. You’ve got Trump, once again, taking an aggressive stance on immigration — and this time, ignoring a judicial ruling in mid-flight. It feels dramatic. It feels dangerous.It also feels... familiar.Because this is a recurring theme of the Trump presidency: bold, legally provocative action, followed by legal pushback, followed by public outrage, followed by months of litigation.The difference now? Trump’s not just promising things. He’s delivering — aggressively.The Two Simplest TakesLet’s be real. There are two clean, simple, headline-ready narratives here.Narrative One: Trump is a lawless authoritarian. He’s ignoring the courts, trampling over civil liberties, and pushing the country toward dictatorship. Bannon’s out here musing about a third term. The plane that didn’t turn around? That’s not just a flight — it’s a red flag.Narrative Two: Trump is finally doing what America has been demanding for years. He’s cleaning up the streets, deporting violent criminals, and living up to his campaign promises. And if that pisses off elite judges or cable news pundits, so be it.Either of these takes will get you clicks. They’ll fire up your base. But both are missing the point.Here’s where I land. I don’t have a hot take. I don’t have a screed. I have some questions, some caution, and a long view.Let’s start with this:Even if you think these deportations are justified, you want due process. There’s a guy who says he was just a soccer player with tattoos, mistaken for a gang member and deported without a fair hearing. Maybe that’s a fluke. Maybe it’s not. But when you're using a rarely-invoked 18th-century law to fast-track deportations, you better be damn sure you’re right.At the same time, it’s impossible to ignore what’s happening politically.Trump is doing something that’s rarely seen in American politics: actually fulfilling campaign promises. That’s shocking. And for a lot of Americans — particularly in the Spanish-speaking communities that have been targeted by the Tren de Aragua gang — this isn’t authoritarianism. This is action.It also helps explain why Trump gained ground with minority voters in 2024. When crime is real, when gangs are active in your neighborhood, when you feel like no one is protecting you, then a president who acts decisively (even if controversially) doesn’t feel scary. He feels necessary.No One Should Be Too Certain Right NowSo where does this go? Honestly, we don’t know yet.Trump is pushing hard. The courts are pushing back. He says he’ll comply, but also defend his position tooth and nail. This is what the process looks like in a functioning democracy. The key word there is “process.”And if you’re one of the people passionately demanding that we respect the judiciary? I agree. But I’d also remind you: the Supreme Court has the final say. And this is the same Supreme Court that many on the left have called illegitimate. So if you’re praising judicial power now, be prepared to keep that same energy when the ruling comes down, because it may not go your way.For now? I'm watching. I'm waiting. And I’m staying cautious.Because what we’re witnessing isn’t just a legal fight or a partisan squabble. It’s a realignment. It’s a redefinition of how power is used, challenged, and ultimately judged in 21st-century America.And while the takes are hot, the only thing I know for sure is this:I got nothing.Chapters00:00:00 - Intro00:01:44 - Trump and the Courts00:11:41 - Update00:12:34 - Israel-Hamas Attacks Heating Up00:14:26 - Trump’s Dept. of Education Executive Order00:17:58 - George Glezmann’s Release from Taliban00:19:25 - Interview with Katy Stech Ferek00:58:39 - Wrap-up This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.politicspoliticspolitics.com/subscribe

Transcribed - Published: 21 March 2025

Chuck Schumer is in hot water with progressives after supporting a GOP stopgap funding bill aimed at preventing a government shutdown. Many on the left see this as a strategic blunder, arguing that he surrendered leverage to Trump. Progressive groups like Indivisible have publicly called for Schumer’s resignation, and moderate Democrats, such as Charlotte Clymer, have led donor boycotts, amassing over 25,000 signatures.Schumer’s defense? He argues that preventing a shutdown was the "lesser of two evils," protecting the party from greater damage under Trump. However, his attempts to quell the outrage — including appearances on CBS Morning News and The View — have done little to shift the narrative. His decision to cancel book tour events amid protests underscores just how serious the backlash has become.Politics Politics Politics is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.The biggest problem? His critics don’t appear to have a clear plan for what comes next. If Democrats truly want Schumer out, they must follow through — otherwise, they risk looking weak and divided at a critical political moment.Polling numbers paint a bleak picture for Democrats. Both CNN and NBC report that the party’s approval rating sits between 27% and 29%, a stark decline from previous cycles. With about 40% of the country identifying as Democrats, that means at least 11-13% of them are unhappy with their own party.Data analyst David Shor’s research further complicates the narrative. His analysis of the 2024 election challenges the idea that low voter turnout hurt Democrats. Instead, Shor suggests that even with maximum turnout, Trump still would have won by nearly five points — a sobering reality for the left.The party’s problems are multifaceted: Independents aren’t sold on the Democratic agenda, progressives feel sidelined, and moderates are frustrated with leadership. Right now, the party’s best hope appears to be waiting for Trump to wear out his welcome with the American public. But that’s not a strategy — it’s wishful thinking.The most surprising shift in this political moment? Donald Trump’s growing appeal to economic progressives. Recent discussions in leftist circles highlight Trump’s stances on issues like the carried interest loophole (a tax policy long criticized by progressives), trade protectionism and tariffs, and economic populism.Journalist Batya Ungar-Sargon even went on Bill Maher to declare herself a “MAGA leftist,” arguing that Trump has done more for the progressive economic agenda than Democratic politicians have. While many on the left may dismiss this claim, the fact remains: Trump is successfully appealing to disaffected progressives, a major threat to Democrats who rely on that voter base.Meanwhile, JD Vance, a key figure in Trump’s political circle, is emerging as an heir apparent, pushing an even more economically populist agenda. If Democrats don’t reclaim these issues, they risk ceding major ground in 2026 and beyond.At the heart of this moment is a clear message: Democrats must decide whether they are serious about their internal fights. Whether it’s Schumer’s leadership or a broader strategic pivot, they can’t afford half-measures. If they challenge Schumer, they must see it through. If they oppose Trump’s growing influence, they must present a compelling alternative — not just react to him.Every second spent in an intra-party squabble is a moment not spent rallying the country behind a clear vision. And as Democrats bicker, the house is on fire.Chapters00:00:00 - Intro00:02:03 - Schumer Facing Backlash and the Future of the Democratic Party00:03:55 - Interview with Isaac Saul00:50:53 - Update00:53:16 - Justice Roberts’ Comments on Trump00:56:00 - Trump and Putin’s Meeting01:01:00 - JFK Files To Be Released01:02:55 - Interview with Tara Palmeri01:25:53 - Wrap-up This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.politicspoliticspolitics.com/subscribe

Transcribed - Published: 18 March 2025

Schumer blinked. House Democrats are furious. But there will be more on that tomorrow.While the dust settles, I’m joined by returning guest ettingermentum to dive deep into the best and worst winning presidential campaigns. We rank every campaign from 1964 to 2024: Who ran the best campaigns, who completely fumbled, and which elections had the biggest long-term impact. Ettingermentum previously put together a two-part series ranking these campaigns, and I, naturally, had to make his own. So, we go back and forth, comparing notes, debating rankings, and making the case for why certain campaigns deserve more credit (or less).Justin’s RankingsS-Tier:* 2008 (Obama)* 1984 (Reagan)A-Tier:* 1992 (Clinton)* 2024 (Trump)B-Tier:* 1972 (Nixon)* 1996 (Clinton)C-Tier:* 1968 (Nixon)* 1980 (Reagan)* 1976 (Carter)* 2000 (Bush)D-Tier:* 1964 (Johnson)* 1988 (Bush)* 2004 (Bush)* 2012 (Obama)F-Tier:* 2016 (Trump)* 2020 (Biden)Chapters00:00:00 - Intro00:01:04 - Schumer Won’t Block Spending Bill00:03:43 - Ranking Winning Political Campaigns, Part 100:48:26 - Update00:49:21 - Mayor Pete Not Running For Senate00:52:45 - Probationary Federal Employees Rehired, Judge Says00:54:56 - Birthright Citizenship Battle00:59:00 - Ranking Winning Political Campaigns, Part 201:36:49 - Wrap-up This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.politicspoliticspolitics.com/subscribe

Transcribed - Published: 14 March 2025

In the intersection of politics and technology, few innovations have had as significant an impact as online donation platforms. ActBlue, the Democratic Party's premiere fundraising tool, has revolutionized small-dollar contributions since its inception in 2004. However, recent internal turmoil at the organization is raising serious questions about both its future and about the broader landscape of political donations.A Game-Changer for DemocratsActBlue was an early pioneer in digital fundraising, allowing Democratic candidates and progressive causes to tap into small-dollar donors efficiently. Through gamification and mobile accessibility, the platform made it easy for supporters to donate with just a few clicks, contributing billions of dollars to campaigns over the years.By 2024, ActBlue played a crucial role in helping President Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris amass over $1.5 billion in campaign funds, outpacing the Republican counterpart, WinRed, which raised $900 million for Donald Trump. The platform also helped Democrats dominate small-dollar fundraising in Senate races, with candidates like Sherrod Brown (Ohio) and John Tester (Montana) outraising their Republican opponents, despite ultimately losing their races.A Leadership Exodus and Rising ConcernsDespite its success, ActBlue is now facing a crisis. In February 2025, seven senior staff members resigned suddenly, including the organization’s chief legal officer, vice president for customer service, and a technical expert with 14 years of experience. This mass departure was alarming enough that two employee unions publicly voiced concerns, warning that confidence in the organization’s stability was eroding.This followed a December 2024 letter from over 140 political stakeholders — consultants, campaign staff, donors, and academics — urging ActBlue to implement stronger safeguards to prevent donor exploitation.One particularly cryptic development came when a newly appointed technical leader at ActBlue reminded employees of whistleblower protections, a warning that suggests internal concerns about potential misconduct.Allegations of Financial MisconductWhile ActBlue’s success has been attributed to its superior technology and network effect, some critics argue that there may be fraudulent activity behind its fundraising dominance.A GOP strategist, Mark Block, filed a racketeering lawsuit against ActBlue, alleging that his identity was stolen to make 385 fraudulent donations totaling $884. He claims that these small donations — each under $200 — were used to exploit a loophole in Federal Election Commission (FEC) reporting requirements.This practice, known as “smurfing,” is a form of money laundering that involves breaking large donations into smaller, untraceable amounts to avoid detection. Block’s lawsuit cites donation receipts from an old campaign email account, showing repeated micro-donations averaging just $3.24 each, many of which he did not authorize.Additionally, there have been reports of:* Elderly individuals discovering numerous small donations in their names without their knowledge.* Foreign nationals using surrogates to funnel money into U.S. elections, a violation of campaign finance laws.These allegations, combined with the sudden staff exodus, suggest that ActBlue could be facing a major financial scandal.The Potential FalloutIf these accusations are substantiated, the implications for ActBlue — and Democratic fundraising — could be severe:* Small donors may hesitate to contribute if concerns about fraud persist, resulting in a loss of trust in one or both parties.* The FEC or other watchdogs may launch formal investigations, leading to stricter oversight.* With ActBlue in turmoil, Democrats may struggle to replicate their past fundraising successes in upcoming elections.There is also speculation that WinRed, the Republican alternative, could face similar scrutiny. If both major fundraising platforms are found to have engaged in unethical practices, the entire online political donation system could be upended.Looking Ahead to 2028ActBlue’s situation is still unfolding, but one thing is clear: The Democratic Party’s dominant fundraising machine is in serious jeopardy. If ActBlue collapses or loses credibility, Democrats will need to quickly find an alternative — something that won’t be easy given the platform’s deep integration with campaign operations.With the 2026 midterms and the 2028 presidential race on the horizon, the future of small-dollar political fundraising is more uncertain than ever.Chapters00:00:00 - Intro00:01:05 - Interview with Matt Laslo00:21:00 - ActBlue Chaos00:32:22 - Update00:33:46 - US/Canadian Tariffs00:35:29 - Ukraine Ceasefire00:37:35 - Mahmoud Khalil’s Arrest00:40:17 - Interview with Jen Briney01:15:08 - Wrap-up This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.politicspoliticspolitics.com/subscribe

Transcribed - Published: 12 March 2025

In a Truth Social post on Thursday, President Donald Trump declared that "the golden age of America has just begun." He touted his administration’s early successes and emphasized that his newly assembled cabinet is focused on cost-cutting measures and staffing decisions, with the Department of Government Efficiency — colloquially known as "DOGE" — playing a central role.According to Trump, his administration will take a "scalpel rather than the hatchet" approach to reducing government waste. He praised Elon Musk and DOGE for their efforts in streamlining operations, stating that his team would be conducting biweekly meetings to assess and refine their approach.However, the speed and aggressiveness of the administration’s restructuring efforts have not gone unnoticed. Over the past 48 hours, there has been a discernible shift — a brake pumping, if you will — on the administration’s initial velocity. Reports suggest that Attorney General Pam Bondi recently presented Trump with binders labeled Epstein files, only for him to realize that most of the information was already publicly available. The implication? There may be an effort to control the chaotic rollout of these reforms.Behind the scenes, Chief of Staff Suzy Wiles appears to be taking on a stabilizing role. She remains largely unquoted in the press, but her influence is evident. While no one can dictate Trump’s decisions, if there is anyone capable of channeling his impulses into a more structured path, it is likely Wiles.The Challenge of Government ReformPolling data presents mixed signals for the administration’s strategy. While government reform remains broadly popular, Elon Musk himself does not poll particularly well. Moreover, while fiscal responsibility is a winning message, mass firings are unpopular, especially when they disrupt essential services.Some of the layoffs initiated by DOGE have drawn minimal public sympathy, such as the widely ridiculed case of a Yosemite employee responsible for bathroom keys. But other cuts have raised alarm, like the reported downsizing at the National Weather Service. This agency is crucial not only for routine weather forecasts but also for emergency alerts, particularly with tornado and hurricane seasons approaching in the coming months.If the administration is now signaling a more measured approach, it may be an acknowledgment that they have tested the limits of public tolerance for aggressive government downsizing. Silicon Valley's ethos values rapid iteration, but that approach does not always translate well to governance. In the tech world, listing a feature that doesn't yet exist isn’t necessarily misleading if it eventually becomes reality. However, in government, making sweeping announcements without a clear plan can create the perception of recklessness rather than innovation.This shift in tone suggests that the administration is attempting to move away from the narrative that it is slashing government with reckless abandon. Instead, the messaging now emphasizes precision: cutting waste while retaining key personnel and essential services. Whether this recalibration is enough to change the public perception is a question for another day.One clear indication of this shift is a new push in Congress. Senate Republicans are urging legislative action to codify DOGE’s spending cuts, following a court ruling that limits the department’s unilateral authority. While some lawmakers have praised Musk’s efforts, others, including Senator Rand Paul, have cautioned that major spending cuts should be handled through Congress rather than executive fiat. Senator Lindsey Graham, a supporter of DOGE, has acknowledged its flaws and has encouraged a more structured approach through legislative rescission.The Coming Battle Over RescissionOne term that is about to become more prominent in political discourse is rescission. While it may sound similar to reconciliation, the two are entirely different budgetary mechanisms. Rescission allows the president to formally request that Congress cancel previously approved federal spending.Here’s how the process works:* The president submits a rescission proposal to Congress, specifying funds to be cut.* Congress has 45 days of continuous session to approve the request. Importantly, approval only requires a simple majority in both chambers, meaning it bypasses the 60-vote Senate filibuster.* If Congress approves, the specified funds are canceled, preventing the executive branch from spending them. If Congress rejects or ignores the proposal, the funds remain intact.The significance of this approach is that it moves beyond the constitutional gray area of unilateral executive spending cuts. Instead of DOGE simply slashing budgets at the departmental level, rescission would put the matter before Congress, potentially giving the cuts more permanence.According to reports, Musk was convinced to support this approach after Lindsey Graham pointed out that any cuts made solely at the department level could easily be reversed by a future Democratic administration. A congressional rescission, however, would be far more difficult to undo.While this approach is unlikely to balance the budget overnight, it represents a strategic shift. It acknowledges the reality that sweeping cuts cannot be imposed without some level of congressional buy-in. The debate now moves to Capitol Hill, where budget hawks may find it difficult to oppose targeted spending reductions, even as Democrats push back.The Trump administration is attempting to walk a fine line: maintaining its image as bold reformers while avoiding the perception of recklessness. The rescission package will likely be controversial, and its success will depend on whether Trump and his allies can frame it as a necessary step toward fiscal responsibility rather than an indiscriminate assault on government programs.As this battle unfolds, the administration’s challenge will be proving that it can not only take risks but also manage them effectively. Whether that message resonates with the public — and with Congress — will determine the next phase of Trump’s government efficiency crusade.Chapters00:00:00 - Intro00:02:03 - Trump’s DOGE Post00:08:25 - Codifying Rescission00:12:36 - Update intro00:13:43 - Al Green’s Censure00:17:25 - Hunter Biden’s Financial Struggles00:21:13 - More Tariff Twists00:24:47 - Interview with J.D. Durkin00:58:34 - Wrap-up This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.politicspoliticspolitics.com/subscribe

Transcribed - Published: 7 March 2025

Last night, Donald Trump delivered a speech that, while technically a joint address to Congress, carried all the hallmarks of a campaign-style event filled with made-for-TV moments, emotional appeals, and strategic messaging. Let’s break down what happened.Trump’s Optimistic Tone: A Departure from "American Carnage"One of the most surprising takeaways from the speech was Trump's notably optimistic tone. Historically, Trump has thrived on highlighting crises, framing America as a nation in peril, in need of his leadership to "fix it." This time, however, there was a shift. He painted a picture of a country that was on the verge of a new golden era, offering solutions rather than just grievances.While still aggressive in his direct call-outs — pointing at specific politicians and criticizing their policies — Trump's rhetoric was more forward-facing. Whether one believes his words or not, the tone of his message was clear: We’re going to be okay, and here’s why.The Democrats' Disjointed StrategyIf Trump’s address was an exercise in tight, focused messaging, the Democratic response was anything but. There appeared to be an internal divide on how to handle the moment. Leadership suggested a visual strategy, having members bring a “plus one,” specifically fired federal workers, to highlight job losses under Trump. But instead of a powerful display, the execution was lackluster.What Democrats mostly did was hold up small signs with messages like “False”, “Protect Medicaid”, and “Fire Musk.” These signs echoed previous protest tactics, like Rashida Tlaib’s “War Criminal” sign when Netanyahu spoke. However, instead of appearing unified and strong, it made them look like they were following a playbook set by a single faction of the party rather than presenting a broad, compelling counterargument.Al Green’s Yelling and the Optics BattleThe lack of a coherent Democratic strategy was further highlighted when Rep. Al Green (D-TX) stood up mid-speech and began yelling, though it was unclear what he was yelling about. The 77-year-old congressman was eventually escorted out, but the visual of an elderly man angrily shouting and then leaving quietly did little to make an impact.Trump, anticipating resistance, built a line into his speech about how Democrats would refuse to stand or cheer for anything he said. True to form, many Democrats remained seated during moments that, at least on camera, appeared universally positive. The optics of the party looking grumpy and disengaged while Trump supporters clapped and cheered was, at best, a missed opportunity.Policy Highlights: Inflation, Tariffs, and Open BordersTrump’s speech hit several key policy points, starting with inflation, a topic polling shows as a top voter concern. His approach? Blame Biden and promise that lowering fuel costs through increased drilling would lower overall prices.He also reaffirmed his stance on tariffs, arguing that protectionist policies would bring jobs back to America. However, as Justin pointed out, this messaging could be tricky. If tariffs are seen as inflationary, they could directly contradict his economic promises.Immigration was another focus, with Trump highlighting border security as one of his administration’s major successes. While migration levels have significantly decreased, he took full credit for the decline, presenting it as a unilateral victory.The Made-for-TV MomentsThis address will likely be remembered more for its emotional and strategic moments than for its policy substance. Trump repeatedly leaned into personal stories, putting everyday Americans in the spotlight. Among the most notable:* A Mother of a Murdered 12-Year-Old – Trump honored a grieving mother whose son was killed by gang members, announcing the renaming of an animal sanctuary in her child’s honor.* A Young Female Athlete and Transgender Sports Debate – He highlighted a female volleyball player who suffered a head injury from a transgender opponent, a move that played directly into the right’s ongoing cultural battles over women's sports.* A Cancer Survivor Turned Secret Service Member – In a surprise moment, Trump announced that a 13-year-old pediatric cancer survivor was being made an honorary Secret Service agent, prompting an emotional response.* A Military Legacy Continues – A young man from a military family was told, on stage, that he was being accepted into West Point — yet another moment of surprise designed for maximum emotional impact.* Afghanistan and ISIS-K – Perhaps the biggest bombshell was Trump’s announcement that the mastermind behind the ISIS-K attack that killed 13 U.S. service members in Afghanistan had been captured and was being extradited.Polling and Public PerceptionIn the immediate aftermath, polling suggested the speech played well. A CNN snap poll showed 69% of speech watchers viewed it positively. A CBS YouGov poll reported that 68% of respondents felt “hopeful” after the speech, while only 16% felt “angry.” These numbers suggest that even some Democrats who tuned in didn’t find the address entirely off-putting.However, the real test will come in the weeks ahead. Trump’s messaging was disciplined and effective, but whether it translates into a meaningful shift in public opinion remains to be seen.Final Thoughts: The Democrats' Strategic VoidTrump may have dominated the night, but the bigger question is: What is the Democratic strategy? Right now, it seems like their approach is to hope Trump makes mistakes. But hope isn’t a plan, and as Justin Young notes, failing to engage effectively in key political moments like this could spell trouble in November.As the 2024 election approaches, one thing is clear: If Democrats don’t sharpen their messaging, Trump is going to keep winning the optics battle.Chapters00:00 - Intro08:19 - Trump’s Opening Remarks and Al Green’s Removal16:02 - Trump’s Relationship with Democrats and Biden19:39 - Trump’s Comments on Inflation22:04 - DOGE and Open Borders33:23 - Made-for-TV Moments41:19 - Abbey Gate, Ukraine, and the Democrats’ Reactions48:39 - Final Thoughts This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.politicspoliticspolitics.com/subscribe

Transcribed - Published: 5 March 2025

The United States has officially imposed broad tariffs on two of its largest trading partners, Canada and Mexico, marking one of the most aggressive trade measures in recent history. With potential economic fallout looming, world leaders, economists, and businesses are scrambling to assess the impact of President Donald Trump’s latest move.From Trade Deals to Trade Wars: How We Got HereDuring Trump’s first term, his administration took a mixed approach to tariffs. While he aggressively targeted China with import duties — many of which remain under President Biden — his strategy with Canada and Mexico was more nuanced. Initial tariffs on specific industries such as lumber, steel, and aluminum eventually gave way to the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), a revised version of NAFTA that stabilized trade relations.However, with Trump back in the White House, he has revived concerns over trade imbalances, particularly with Canada and Mexico. On January 20th, Inauguration Day, Trump signed an executive order launching a review of USMCA, with findings due in April. But before that process could unfold, he moved forward with major tariff increases.On February 1st, Trump announced two executive orders imposing sweeping tariffs. Canadian imports now face a 25% tariff, with a lower 10% tariff on energy exports like oil and gas. Mexico has been hit with a flat 25% tariff on all imports. Though negotiations initially delayed the tariffs by 30 days, they have now gone into full effect, shaking up a $1.3 trillion annual trade relationship.To justify the tariffs, Trump invoked the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, a legal framework typically used for sanctions. He linked the move to national security concerns, specifically citing fentanyl trafficking and illegal immigration.Sweeping Tariffs Hit North America HardThe response from Canada and Mexico has been swift and severe. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau condemned the tariffs as "absolutely unacceptable" and unveiled a $30 billion retaliatory tariff package, with plans for an additional $125 billion in tariffs within 21 days if the dispute is not resolved. Several Canadian provinces have announced bans on U.S. products, pulling American wine, beer, and liquor off store shelves.In Mexico, President Claudia Sheinbaum issued a sharp protest but has not yet outlined a formal retaliation. However, Mexican officials have signaled that they may target key U.S. industries, including soybeans, pork, and beef exports.Domestically, the tariff decision has sparked significant economic concern. Stock markets tumbled following the announcement, and major retailers like Target and Best Buy have warned that prices on imported goods will rise sharply, with businesses passing the cost onto consumers.Economists overwhelmingly predict inflationary pressure, warning that tariffs could lead to a U.S. recession and further damage trade relations. The automotive industry is expected to see major price hikes, as will sectors reliant on steel and aluminum, energy resources, agriculture, and consumer goods such as electronics, clothing, and household appliances.Trump’s Endgame: Tough Negotiation or Economic Gamble?These tariffs will likely be felt most harshly by Canada and Mexico, as the United States is their largest export market. Seventy-five percent of Canadian exports go to the U.S., while for Mexico, that number is even higher at 80%. By limiting these exports, Trump is exerting maximum pressure on both countries, but the strategy raises significant questions.Is he using tariffs as leverage to renegotiate USMCA? Does he expect Canada and Mexico to cave under economic strain? Or is this a broader shift toward economic protectionism, despite warnings from economists?Trump’s decision could make or break his administration. While his supporters may see the move as a strong stance against unfair trade practices, rising prices and economic downturns could alienate voters — especially those who supported him for his stance on inflation control. The coming months will reveal whether these tariffs are a negotiation tool or a long-term policy shift. For now, both the U.S. and its North American neighbors brace for an economic showdown.Chapters* 00:00:00 - Introduction* 00:02:39 - Ukraine Mineral Deal Fallout* 00:06:35 - The Impact of Tariffs on Trade Relations* 00:17:22 - Consequences of Tariffs on the Economy* 00:22:15 - Interview with Bill Scher* 00:58:09 - Update introduction* 01:00:13 - J.D. Vance’s European Controversy* 01:03:02 - GOP Government Funding Bill* 01:04:48 - Democrats’ Plans to Protest Trump’s Speech* 01:08:00 - Interview with Katie Harbath* 01:45:25 - Outro This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.politicspoliticspolitics.com/subscribe

Transcribed - Published: 5 March 2025

In a dramatic turn of events last Friday, an Oval Office press conference meant to signal unity between the U.S. and Ukraine spiraled into an unanticipated disaster. What was supposed to be a step toward solidifying a peace negotiation framework with Russia instead resulted in the unraveling of a crucial minerals-for-aid deal. The fallout has raised pressing questions about the future of U.S.-Ukraine relations, President Trump’s foreign policy, and Ukraine’s ability to sustain its war efforts.The Lead-Up: A Fragile PartnershipTo understand the significance of last Friday’s debacle, it’s essential to examine the events leading up to it. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, a seasoned political operator, has long been reliant on U.S. support. Despite initial tensions, particularly regarding Biden’s approval of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, the Ukraine-U.S. relationship strengthened in the wake of Russia’s full-scale invasion. The Biden administration’s vocal support and military aid were critical in keeping Ukraine afloat.However, Zelenskyy has never shied away from playing hardball in the American political arena, a strategy that has at times put him at odds with U.S. leaders. His aggressive advocacy for Ukraine, including his willingness to publicly challenge U.S. decisions, set the stage for what would become a deeply consequential clash with the Trump administration.The Minerals-for-Aid Deal: A Shaky FoundationOne of the most underreported aspects of Friday’s breakdown was the origins of the proposed minerals-for-aid agreement. Contrary to some portrayals, this wasn’t a Trump-led shakedown—it was an idea first floated by Zelenskyy himself in October 2024. His proposal sought to leverage Ukraine’s vast rare-earth mineral reserves, essential for advanced technology and defense systems, in exchange for long-term U.S. and European support.The Trump administration seized on this idea, seeing it as a way to justify continued investment in Ukraine while securing critical materials. However, negotiations faltered. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and a delegation, including Senator JD Vance and Marco Rubio, attempted to finalize the agreement in multiple rounds of talks. Zelenskyy, at one point, appeared ready to sign—only to later insist on additional approvals from Ukraine’s parliament, frustrating Trump and his team.The Press Conference MeltdownThe diplomatic strain reached its breaking point at the White House. The stage was set for Zelenskyy and Trump to present a united front and sign the minerals deal. Instead, what followed was an unexpectedly confrontational exchange that unraveled months of negotiation.The first warning signs appeared when Zelenskyy openly bristled at Trump’s references to Russian casualties, signaling an underlying frustration with the framing of the discussion. Tensions escalated when Zelenskyy, rather than using the platform to solidify the agreement, engaged in an impromptu challenge to JD Vance regarding U.S. support for Ukraine.Key moments included:* Trump’s unexpected commitments: Despite accusations that his administration is soft on Russia, Trump pledged continued arms shipments to Ukraine and even left the door open for U.S. troops participating in a peacekeeping force.* Zelenskyy’s misstep: His attempt to push for additional reparations from Russia, while politically sound, was ill-timed given the fragile state of negotiations.* The breaking point: A contentious back-and-forth between Zelenskyy and Vance, initiated by Zelenskyy, derailed the proceedings. Within hours, the deal was dead.The Fallout: A Win for Moscow?The failure to secure an agreement is a major setback for Ukraine. Without a clear U.S. commitment, European nations may hesitate to maintain their full-throated support, wary of straining relations with Washington. Meanwhile, Russia stands to benefit from any cracks in the Western alliance’s stance on Ukraine.For Trump, the incident may not be the political liability that critics assume. Polling suggests that a majority of Americans remain skeptical of prolonged foreign military commitments. His stance, which aligns with a broader shift toward isolationism within the Republican Party, is unlikely to cost him significant political capital.What Happens Next?Despite the disastrous turn of events, all hope is not lost. The underlying incentives for a deal remain strong—Ukraine needs U.S. support, and the U.S. has a strategic interest in securing rare-earth minerals.* Will Zelenskyy make amends? His best course of action may be to reopen negotiations, perhaps even making a direct appeal to Trump at Mar-a-Lago.* Can Europe fill the gap? In the immediate term, European leaders, including France and the UK, are trying to reassure Ukraine, but their ability to replace U.S. support remains in question.* Will the Trump administration re-engage? The White House has signaled that the door is not entirely closed. Treasury Secretary Bessent has expressed confidence that an agreement can still be reached.Friday’s Oval Office debacle was a textbook case of diplomatic miscalculation. Zelenskyy, known for his sharp political instincts, overplayed his hand at a critical moment, while Trump’s characteristic unpredictability added to the chaos. The result was a self-inflicted wound for Ukraine at a time when it can least afford uncertainty.In the coming weeks, the world will watch closely to see if this was a temporary setback or a turning point in the war. One thing is certain—Ukraine cannot afford another misstep. Chapters* 00:00:00 - Introduction* 00:02:28 - The Build-Up to Friday’s Trump-Zelenskyy Meeting* 00:20:20 - The Meeting at the Oval Office* 00:59:04 - Reactions and Fallout* 01:10:39 - Wrap-upTrump-Zelenskyy Takes:* Zelensky Has Behaved Honorably. He Should Now Resign. - Richard Hanania's Newsletter * Trump and Zelensky: How We Got Here - Gabe Fleisher * Zelensky's White House meltdown - Michael Tracey This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.politicspoliticspolitics.com/subscribe

Transcribed - Published: 3 March 2025

U.S. Attorney General Pam Bondi recently released a set of documents titled the Epstein Files: Phase One, which were expected to shed new light on the late financier and convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein’s extensive network and illicit activities. However, the heavily redacted documents primarily contained information already available to the public, leading to significant criticism.Following the document release, Bondi sent a stern letter to FBI Director Kash Patel, accusing the FBI’s New York field office of withholding thousands of pages of additional records related to the Epstein investigation. She stated that despite assurances that all Epstein-related files had been provided, she quickly learned of the existence of more material.Bondi demanded the release of all remaining records—documents, audio, and video—by 8 a.m. on February 28th. Additionally, she announced an internal investigation into the handling of these files and instructed Patel to propose personnel action within two weeks.The document release quickly turned into a social media firestorm. Several influencers, including Libs of TikTok owner Chaya Raichik, Mike Cernovich, Jessica Reed Kraus of House Inhabit, and Chad Prather, were photographed at the White House holding binders labeled Epstein Files Phase One.This sparked outrage, with many questioning why these influencers had early access to the files while they were not made publicly available online. Others, particularly those who have long followed the Epstein case, downplayed the release, arguing that these files contained little new information.The controversy extended beyond social media, as members of Congress expressed frustration over the handling of the files. The House Judiciary Committee mocked the situation by posting a fake link to the Epstein files—only to rickroll their audience. Meanwhile, Rep. Anna Paulina Luna, who is involved in declassifying public secrets, stated that she had not been provided access to the documents before their release, raising concerns about poor coordination within the Justice Department.The release of Phase One has left more questions than answers. While Bondi insists that additional documents exist and must be made public, the disorganized rollout has fueled skepticism. Some remain hopeful that new, previously unknown details about Epstein's network will eventually surface. For now, the public is left with confusing and frustrating news—but potentially more revelations on the horizon.Chapters* 00:00:00 - Introduction* 00:03:00 - Stephen A. Smith’s Potential Presidential Run* 00:16:12 - Keir Starmer* 00:19:51 - The Epstein Files Debacle* 00:24:10 - USAID Fallout* 00:25:55 - Interview with Claire Meynial on CPAC, Europe, and Ukraine* 01:02:09 - Wrap-up This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.politicspoliticspolitics.com/subscribe

Transcribed - Published: 28 February 2025

Sixteen years ago, CNBC commentator Rick Santelli stood on the floor of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and delivered an impassioned rant against federal plans to bail out struggling homeowners. “Do we really want to subsidize the losers’ mortgages?” he shouted, calling for a “Chicago Tea Party” to protest government intervention.That moment became the rallying cry for a movement that would reshape conservative politics, define opposition to the Obama presidency, and eventually evolve into the MAGA movement that has since won the White House twice.Lately, the Tea Party has been on my mind because of the way political movements are often dismissed by their opponents. In liberal circles, one word was frequently used to wave off the Tea Party: astroturf.“This isn’t a grassroots movement,” critics insisted. “It’s funded by billionaires to look like a populist uprising.” After all, it started on CNBC—hardly a blue-collar favorite.But that’s not the whole story. And now, in 2024, astroturfing accusations are being hurled in the opposite direction.Last week, Republican Rep. Rich McCormick of Georgia faced a hostile crowd at a town hall in Roswell. The moment (captured in a widely circulated video) showed Democrats in his district voicing their frustration, pushing back forcefully against GOP policies.In response, conservatives dismissed the backlash as manufactured outrage, a coordinated effort by the so-called “deep state” to rattle the Republican establishment.Sound familiar?To understand whether today’s Democratic anger is real or manufactured, it’s worth looking back at how the Tea Party took shape.While Santelli’s on-air rant is widely credited with sparking the Tea Party, grassroots opposition to Obama’s policies had already begun. Keli Carender, a blogger in Seattle, organized an anti-stimulus protest even before Santelli’s speech. Her February 2009 demonstration—dubbed the “Porkulus Protest”—drew about 100 people.But once Santelli’s rant went viral, Tea Party protests exploded across the country. Social media platforms like Facebook and Twitter helped coordinate events, and by April’s Tax Day, an estimated quarter-million people took to the streets in organized demonstrations. Conservative media played a crucial role in amplifying the movement. Fox News hosts like Glenn Beck and Sean Hannity championed Tea Party causes, helping grow its ranks. Soon, prominent Republican figures lent their support, though the movement remained largely decentralized.By the summer of 2009, as Obamacare made its way through Congress, Tea Party activists shifted their strategy. Instead of street protests, they flooded town halls, confronting Democratic lawmakers with fiery opposition. Videos of these clashes—angry constituents challenging their representatives—became a defining image of the movement.And electorally, the Tea Party had teeth. While it failed to topple the Republican establishment entirely (Mitt Romney still won the 2012 nomination), it helped flip House seats and push the GOP further to the right.What does the Tea Party teach us about today’s Democratic opposition?* It’s never too early to be angry. Santelli’s rant came barely a month after Obama took office. Right now, Trump’s disapproval ratings are rising, but Democrats haven’t yet rallied around a singular issue.* Movements can make an impact—especially in the House. The Tea Party didn’t need to control the White House to change the political landscape. A handful of flipped seats can shift the balance of power.* Dismissing protests as ‘astroturf’ is risky. If the same kind of town hall showdowns seen in McCormick’s district begin happening elsewhere, they could turn into a trend.The Tea Party was fueled by a raw, pent-up anger over fiscal conservatism. Many conservatives felt betrayed by their own party—George W. Bush had campaigned on balanced budgets, only to expand deficits through wars and bailouts. Obama’s presidency, with its ambitious government programs, only amplified those frustrations.The question for Democrats now is: What’s their version of that anger?If it’s simply opposition to Trump, that’s not enough. Even figures like Elon Musk—despised by many progressives—aren’t sustainable political villains. “Musk sent another email” isn’t a battle cry that will mobilize voters in the long run.That’s why Democratic strategists should be tickled by what just happened in the House. They (impressively) passed a budget that, while avoiding direct mention of Medicaid, includes $880 billion in cuts overseen by the Energy and Commerce Committee—which just happens to control Medicaid.Why the cuts? Because fiscal hawks in the House need a way to offset the Trump tax cuts.For Democrats, that’s a classic, politically potent message: Republicans are cutting your Medicaid to give tax cuts to the rich.If they can harness that into a movement—one that gets people angry enough to show up at town halls, knock on doors, and vote—then history might just be repeating itself.Podcast Chapters & Timecodes* 00:00:00 – Introduction* 00:01:58 – The Tea Party’s Legacy and Lessons for Democrats* 00:14:55 – Dan Bongino Becomes FBI’s Second-in-Command* 00:19:15 – MSNBC’s Prime-Time Shake-Up & Network Struggles* 00:22:58 – NYC Mayor Eric Adams’ Re-Election Challenges* 00:26:27 – Interview with Brian Sack on Ukraine & DEI Policies* 01:05:28 – Wrap-Up This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.politicspoliticspolitics.com/subscribe

Transcribed - Published: 26 February 2025

One down, 47 to go.With Donald Trump’s first month in office coming to a close, we are seeing something that feels a bit more familiar. According to three recent polls, his approval rating is now underwater—meaning more people disapprove of him than approve. This is still essentially the same conversation we were having before. There are deeply entrenched beliefs on both sides, with some convinced he is doing a terrible job and others believing he is performing tremendously.Keep Politics Politics Politics alive! Get two bonus episodes each week! Upgrade to paid!The numbers reflect this divide. A CNN SSRS poll shows Trump’s approval at 47% with 52% disapproving. Similarly, a Reuters Ipsos poll reports 44% approval and 51% disapproval, while Gallup’s latest survey records a 45% approval and 51% disapproval. I have seen other numbers where he remains above 50% and in net positive territory, but the general trend suggests that the more people hear his name, the less they seem to like him.Sound familiar?At the heart of this, however, is the same issue that contributed to Joe Biden’s defeat: the economy. Economic fears and anxieties remain high, and now that people are reminded of both the speed and the sheer volume—both in quantity and loudness—of the Trump administration, there’s a sense of, “Ah, okay, here we go again.” If the economy rebounds, Trump could find himself in a very strong position. But if it does not, whatever mandate he might have had will quickly evaporate.It’s worth noting that we still have the majority of Trump’s first 100 days ahead of us, though you’d be forgiven for forgetting that as it feels like he’s been in office for six months. Chapters02:06 - Trump Approval Rating Down04:46 - Evan Scrimshaw on Why Canada Hates The US51:53 - Mitch McConnell Retirement54:05 - Kash Patel Confirmed57:37 - Zelenskyy To Sign Mineral Deal With US01:03:12 - Kevin Ryan This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.politicspoliticspolitics.com/subscribe

Transcribed - Published: 21 February 2025

Wait, what? What just happened? To who? When? And it just flipped when it landed? A 13th kid with a fourth woman? Does that have anything to do with the other thing? You know, the one that just happened. Or maybe that was last week… The first month of Trump 47 has felt more like 47 weeks than it has four, with a relentless barrage of executive orders, personnel decisions, and, let’s say, charitably unconventional accounting procedures that have kicked ant piles both foreign and domestic. And with all of that, much of what you read on social media, Substack, or in your podcast feed is likely very, very hyperbolic—or, if you’re on the conservative side of the aisle, particularly gleeful. My goal, however, is to ask a simple question every day: What actually matters? On this episode of the show, we’re going to talk to two people with vastly different perspectives on the political system. First, we have Gabe Fleisher, who writes the Wake Up to Politics newsletter and, even as a fresh college graduate, has probably forgotten more about political history and minutiae than the average voter has ever cared to learn. On the other end of the spectrum, we have John Teasdale, an entrepreneur and co-creator of The Contender card game, who intentionally disconnected himself from politics for the past year and has only just returned stateside.“Sure, Justin, I’ll enjoy both of those conversations. But what about me? What does that give me as a framework to understand what’s happening right now?” Well, to help with that, I want to dust off something that doesn’t usually get brought out in the political realm, but given the breakneck pace of news, I think it’s worth it. In 2013, WNYC’s On the Media program put out a helpful infographic titled the Breaking News Consumer Handbook. You’ve probably seen it during major events like shootings or tragedies, but with the flood of headlines right now, I think it’s worth revisiting its five core tenets and applying them to this moment.In the immediate aftermath of any major event, most news outlets will get it wrong. This is crucial to remember because, amid the deluge of information, you owe it to yourself to slow down. Wait a few days, maybe even a week, before getting worked up about something. Half-truths, gossip, and rumor fly out of every orifice in Washington, and with time, further context often clarifies the situation—or at least reveals whether it’s even newsworthy. Don’t you deserve the full set of facts before being led around by the nose by the outrage machine? I think you do. Don’t trust anonymous sources. Case in point: as I was recording, a story broke from NBC News stating that U.S. intelligence indicates Vladimir Putin isn’t interested in a real peace deal. The sources? Four anonymous sources—two congressional aides and two intel sources, presumably provided by those aides. The article essentially asserts that while Putin may negotiate with Trump, he’s not deterred from taking Ukraine in the long run. To which I say: da-doi. Unless you genuinely believed that Putin was going to apologize for invading Ukraine and promise never to do it again, this “news” adds no value. It doesn’t outline the parameters of a peace deal, Russia’s red lines, or any concrete details. It simply reiterates that Putin remains an authoritarian thug, which, let’s be real, even MAGA supporters acknowledge. The end of war is not a morality play—it’s about making decisions that stop people from dying. This story is calorie free by making a stupid point and not even using named sources to do it.Don’t trust stories that cite other media outlets as sources. This is a favorite trick of churn-media articles, particularly those designed to game Facebook’s algorithm. If you mostly get your news from social media, you’re consuming content optimized for engagement, not accuracy. These outlets often regurgitate information from elsewhere, making their legitimacy dubious at best. Fourth, and this one is more relevant to shootings, but still applicable…There is almost never a second shooter. In a broader sense, Occam’s razor applies—sometimes the simplest explanation is the correct one. While plenty of conspiracy theories have turned out to be true (COVID lab leak, Hunter Biden’s laptop, etc.), not everything that pops up on social media is exactly what it seems, especially when it comes to government spending. Right now, people are combing through federal expenditures, uncovering what might appear to be scandals. Give it time. Wait a few days before reacting and hitting retweet.Pay attention to the language the media uses. Phrases like “we are getting reports” could mean anything. “We are seeking confirmation” means they don’t have confirmation. “The news outlet has learned” means they have a scoop or are going out on a limb. Stick to fundamental journalism: a compelling lead, a nut graph that clearly outlines the news, and at least three on-the-record sources directly involved in the situation. If those elements aren’t there, take the story with a grain of salt. In truth, there isn’t as much actual news as the fire hose of content would suggest. There’s plenty of gossip, innuendo, and hot takes, and that’s before you get to people in the arena yelling at each other on social media. But real, capital-N news? That’s much rarer than it seems.Chapters00:00:00 : Introduction and Overview00:01:20 : Political Analysis and Current Events00:02:04 : Breaking News Consumer Handbook00:11:04 : Interview with Gabe Fleischer00:51:14 : Update on Ukraine-Russia Peace Deal00:57:02 : New York Mayor Eric Adams' Administration Turmoil01:00:03 : Elon Musk and Fort Knox Investigation01:01:51 : Interview with John Teasdale01:25:38 : Show Wrap-Up and Listener Support This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.politicspoliticspolitics.com/subscribe

Transcribed - Published: 19 February 2025