The Big Beautiful Bill looked like it was gliding along. Sure, there were hiccups — Rand Paul grumbled about the debt ceiling, some MAGA accounts didn’t fully endorse it — but even then, it felt like controlled turbulence. Paul was performing his role as the token dissenter, the libertarian who always squawks about spending but eventually votes yes with a few tweaks. And he was already telegraphing his price: drop the debt ceiling hike and he’s in. Meanwhile, the House side wasn’t exactly throwing punches. Everyone was eyeing the Senate. If anything, it seemed like things were lining up for a classic late-June deal — messy but inevitable.

Punchbowl’s Jake Sherman, who’s as wired in as it gets, detailed the emerging gap between the House and Senate versions of the bill. The Senate Finance Committee wants permanent tax breaks that sunset in the House version. They’re also pushing to modify or eliminate key Trump-era items — like the no-tax-on-overtime policy and new savings accounts for kids. There’s still no consensus on SALT either. Senate Republicans want to water down the $40,000 deduction cap that Trump himself agreed to. That would make some moderate House Republicans happy, but it could risk blowing up the agreement altogether. This is the stuff that actually matters — the policy guts that will be run past the parliamentarian and hashed out in closed-door meetings. But then, out of nowhere… Elon.

Politics Politics Politics is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

MAGA Has a Specific Type

Two days ago, Elon Musk posted that the big beautiful bill was a “disgusting abomination.” Then he followed it up by retweeting Rand Paul with the words “KILL the BILLL.” That’s not a passing criticism. That’s scorched-earth stuff. And when it comes from a guy like Elon — who has positioned himself as a billionaire warrior for the MAGA cause — it’s a challenge. So I did what I always do. I doomscrolled. Not for fun, but for you. To see who flinches. And here’s what I found: almost nobody followed his lead.

Charlie Kirk, who had been fairly quiet on the bill, suddenly dropped a thread outlining “50 wins” from it — MAGA-branded talking points that sounded like they came from Speaker Johnson’s office. He didn’t mention Elon. He didn’t need to. The timing was the tell. He was staking a claim: this bill is ours. It’s Trump’s. And we’re backing it. Then came Catturd. If you don’t know about @Catturd2, well, that’s why you listen to this show. The dude’s a Twitter account run by a Florida musician, but in the MAGA ecosystem, his voice carries weight. When he turns, people follow. And he wasn’t with Elon either.

Mike Cernovich — someone who’s ridden hard for Elon, slammed his enemies, carried water for his beefs — also pivoted. He made it clear that Trump’s agenda is what gets MAGA fired up, not fiscal purity. His message was simple: you might like Elon, but Trump’s the main character here. And look, none of these guys are policy wonks. But they are barometers. They’re not jumping to Elon’s defense. They’re lining up behind the machine.

Last One In, First One Out

Elon is learning in real time what it means to be new money in a political world that runs on tenure and loyalty. MAGA isn’t a traditional political coalition. It’s more like a federation of tribes — influencers, donors, operators — loosely tied together by a shared orbit around Trump. And in that world, being flashy doesn’t count for much if you weren’t in the trenches in 2016 or 2020. Elon came on board when it was already a moving train. Buying Twitter, firing woke staff, bringing Trump back to the platform — all of that scored him points. But that’s not the same as being family.

That’s why I keep coming back to the same thought: last one in, first one out. Musk might be the richest guy in the world. He might own the place where MAGA influencers gather. But the moment he stepped out of line, they let him drift. Not a coordinated takedown. Just silence. And silence is brutal. He’s not getting clowned like Bannon did when he got iced out. He’s just floating — a slow, silent uncoupling from the people who used to cheer his every post.

Now, Mike Johnson is supposed to speak to Elon about the bill today. Maybe that call smooths things over. Maybe Russ Vought or Stephen Miller reels him back in. Maybe he gets a seat at the table, tweaks the AI language, and declares victory. But right now, he’s yelling about the CBO’s deficit projections and getting politely ignored. And the MAGA coalition — the one he thought he’d conquered — is moving on without him.

Chapters

(Minor mic issues during the first 3 minutes of our interview with Kevin, stick with it.)

00:00:00 - Intro

00:02:57 - Elon vs. the Big Beautiful Bill

00:16:36 - Interview with Kevin Ryan

00:41:38 - Update

00:41:56 - Trump's Travel Ban

00:46:09 - Karine Jean-Pierre's Book

00:51:46 - AOC Endorses Zohran Mamdani

00:56:36 - Interview with Kevin Ryan, con't

01:35:46 - Wrap-up

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.politicspoliticspolitics.com/subscribe