This weekend, the New York Times ran a piece titled Six Months Later, Democrats Are Still Searching for the Path Forward, and it was bleak. The lead quote came from Anat Shenker-Osorio, a favorite of this show, describing Democrats as sloths, snails, and most devastatingly, a deer in headlights. That last one feels accurate, especially when you look at the post-election breakdown from Catalist, a Democratic-aligned polling firm. We’ll dive deeper into that next week with Michael Cohen, but the short version? The coalition looks grim.

Democrats are losing ground, and it’s not just because of Joe Biden or Kamala Harris. It’s not just about the top of the ticket. It’s structural. They don’t have a message that resonates, and they don’t have a coalition that can win. When you look at how the electorate has shifted since 2012 — through 2016, 2020, and now 2024 — the trend is clear. Wide swaths of the country keep moving right. This is not just a Trump story. This is a cultural shift.

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There are a few bright spots — like John Ossoff. The Atlanta suburbs are still trending blue, which gives him a strong base going into his re-election. But one candidate’s survival isn’t a strategy. The bigger problem is Democrats losing voters they used to count on, and then reacting like anthropologists studying a foreign culture. Take the new $20 million project codenamed SAM — “Speaking with American Men.” The plan is to understand what language appeals to young men online and then buy ad space in video games. I’m not kidding.

I’ll save you the $20 million. Want to understand American men? Go to a sports bar at lunch. Talk to the bartender. Watch what’s on TV. It’s going to be Capitals games, Commanders games, maybe Nationals if they’re hot. Ask what name the bartender uses — Commanders or Redskins — and pay attention. That’s a signal. Look around. You’ll see a guy without sleeves. His name is Pat McAfee. He parlayed a Barstool podcast into a national show that’s shaping how a huge swath of American men consume sports and culture.

McAfee is the demographic. Not the man, but the space he occupies. You don’t need to book him — in fact, don’t. But understand what kind of guests are on his show. What they talk about. What they joke about. The cultural signals they send. Most aren’t overtly political, but they skew conservative. They care about sports, performance, and authenticity. They aren’t trying to be progressive heroes. They’re just being themselves — and Democrats don’t know how to speak to that.

The real issue is that Democrats think everything is messaging. They believe their phrasing is so perfect, so tested, that if people just heard it the right way, it would work. But voters aren’t lab rats. They’re not waiting for the next DNC ad drop to form their opinions. They’re watching comedians joke about trans athletes. They’re laughing at jokes about liberal overreach. They’re reacting to a world where Democrats are often cast as anti-fun and anti-speech. And white men — yes, still the overwhelming majority of this country — don’t respond well to being told they’re the problem from the start.

So how do you reach them? Start by understanding who’s already reaching them. Then think about what message would land quietly on a show like Pat McAfee’s. Not what would stand out. What would blend in. That’s the Rosetta Stone. Speak in a way that doesn’t sound like a speech. Get out of your own head. Stop trying to convert — start trying to connect.

And meanwhile, while Democrats strategize over lunch buffets at luxury hotels, Trump is climbing in the polls. The idea that he’s getting “less popular” is just wrong. His lowest point was late April. Since then, his numbers have rebounded. His approval is hovering around 47 percent. That’s good — especially for someone who normally lives in the 30s. Right now, more Americans think the country is on the right track under Trump than they ever did under Biden. The direction-of-the-country numbers are strong. For Trump. That’s insane. And Democrats ignore it at their peril.

They keep underestimating him. They keep assuming the messaging is enough. But Trump is talking about tax cuts for tips and overtime. Democrats are voting for them too — the Senate just passed a version 100 to 0. They know it polls well. They just don’t want to say it out loud unless it’s their version.

Politics is about trust. And the Biden White House broke it. When it’s he said, she said, voters side with the one who hasn’t lied to them. That’s Trump right now. And if Democrats want to change that, they’ve got to start being honest — not just with the public, but with themselves.

Chapters

00:00:00 - Intro

00:01:44 - Democrat Rebranding Struggles

00:26:16 - Update

00:27:34 - US-EU Trade Talks and Consumer Confidence

00:31:32 - Senate Republican Fiscal Concerns

00:34:34 - Covid Vaccine Recommendations Pulled

00:37:52 - Interview with Juliegrace Brufke

01:04:15 - Wrap-up

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