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The John Batchelor Show

#Yerevan: Rumours of "Track 2" Ukraine peace talks. Anatol Lieven, Quincy Institute

The John Batchelor Show

John Batchelor

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4.5 • 2.8K Ratings

🗓️ 7 July 2023

⏱️ 14 minutes

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#Yerevan: Rumours of "Track 2" Ukraine peace talks. Anatol Lieven, Quincy Institute
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/former-us-officials-secret-ukraine-talks-russians-war-ukraine-rcna92610


Transcript

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0:00.0

This is CBS I On The World with John Bacheler. Here's John Bacheler.

0:12.0

The Anertel Leven of the Quincy Institute for Responsible State Craft is traveling and kindly agreed to speak of his presence in Yeraván Armenia.

0:21.0

Armenia, this is the capital of a former Soviet state in the South Caucasus, been in the news over the years because of a conflict with Azerbaijan, a former Soviet state that is contiguous over a part of both countries, both countries are claiming the same territory called Nagorno-Karabakh if you're in Baku.

0:43.0

It has a different name if you're in Yeraván. That conflict ended to my understanding in late 2020. Since then, there have been efforts by Russia, by Turkey, by Azerbaijan, certainly by Armenia to resolve the conflict. That has not happened. However, Yeraván, after the beginning of the Ukraine war, has become a refuge as sanctuary a discovery.

1:07.0

For many young people fleeing the Russian mobilization and perhaps the war in Ukraine, Anertel, a very good day to you before we turn to the Ukraine and the strange headlines about Pagosan.

1:20.0

How is the business in Yeraván because the report is a whole lot of young people, especially information technology people, have arrived in Yeraván from Russia or from Ukraine and applied to found their own businesses. Do you see the streets and the restaurants lively? Good evening to you.

1:39.0

Hello, John. Yes, I mean, absolutely. The place is booming. The Armenian economy has grown by 12% this year, on top of 12% last year, above all, on the strength of Russians and Russian money coming in.

1:57.0

The thing is, what is encouraging for the Armenians is that a lot of this is Armenian Russian money, that's to say, Armenians who are citizens of Russia.

2:09.0

And whereas a lot of the Russians, of course, will go on, will pass through Armenia on their way to the west or the Gulf or whatever, a lot of the Russian Armenians will stay and found businesses here.

2:22.0

So yes, I mean, it's absolutely booming. It's, you know, the evenings and the main square and the main shopping streets, they feel like Milan, frankly.

2:33.0

But of course, it's very odd. I mean, it feels weird for me because I spent my longest time in Yeraván in the early 90s, you know, the worst period of the war with Azerbaijan.

2:45.0

When, you know, Armenia was blockaded, there was no energy, people were cutting down trees for firewood.

2:54.0

And I keep sort of looking around me and wondering where I am. But the other thing is, you know, I taught on the phone to somebody in Nagorno-Karabakh, which is now completely surrounded by the Azareas, and protected very tenuously by Russian peacekeepers.

3:16.0

And he, of course, sounded just like people sounded back in the 1990s. I mean, an element of real desperation and talk of, you know, fighting to the end and then dying.

3:30.0

So it's a very, a very strange experience, I have to say.

3:34.0

And the Yeraván, intentions right now are unclear. There was a note in May of this year that Moscow, through the offices of the Kremlin, were seeking a negotiation between Baku and Yeraván.

3:50.0

There have been meetings also in the United States about the same topic. To your understanding, has that story moved or is it waiting for some resolution elsewhere, perhaps the Ukraine war?

4:04.0

Well, I think that's just it. I mean, all the external actors want a settlement. But the problem is that the only settlement acceptable to the Azareas is the return, the complete return of Nagorno-Karabakh to Azerbaijan.

4:22.0

And that would almost certainly mean the end. Not, not, they'd be killed, but they would leave off the Nagorno-Karabakh Armenians.

4:31.0

Now, you know, Russia doesn't want that. It would be a terrible humiliation for Russia. America doesn't want that because it would cause serious trouble, you know, among the Armenian diaspora in America.

4:44.0

Turkey doesn't exactly want that because it would lead to a clash with Russia. And just the moment Turkey and Russia are very anxious to get on with each other.

4:55.0

And so you have a situation where the Azareas are now in the overwhelmingly dominant military position, but they're not pressing things to a conclusion militarily.

...

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