You are listening to the War in the Rocks podcast on Strategy, Defense and Foreign Affairs.

My name is Ryan Evans and I'm sitting here again with Michael Kaufman, head of the Russia team at

CNA.

Mike, thanks for joining us again for yet another episode.

Ryan, thanks for me back on the podcast.

Mike, as you previously discussed on the show,

the war seems to have settled into this conflict defined by attrition where lines are moving

slowly and any any major gains or losses are happening very slowly and

both Russia and Ukraine are having troubles

mobilizing sufficient manpower to do what each side is seeking out to do.

Let's start with a Dunbar.

What's the state of play there?

Sure, so it looks like Russian forces have

captured Severa Danesk, which I think was fairly expected and had broken out at Tashkivka just south of Listic Chaunsk.

The Ukrainian forces are now concentrating their defense around Lissichalisk, which is a bit of a high ground from the next city in that area.

From what one can tell, it's very likely the Russian forces now

are going to try to take advantage of the recent advance

to threaten ground lines of communication

to Lisei Chansk.

Eventually they may be able to encircle and take the city but that just

means they're going to run into the next Ukrainian line of defenses running

from bachmut to Seversk which is just east of Savans for those looking at some of the maps.

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