The Most Dangerous Phase for Ukraine?

War on the Rocks

News, Politics

4.6 • 1.1K Ratings

🗓️ 13 June 2022

⏱️ 20 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

This is not an optimistic episode. Michael Kofman speculates that the war might be in its most dangerous phase. Why is that? Ukraine's casualties and shortages in munitions are beginning to show as Russia is gaining some operational advantages in the Donbass. Further, Russia's efforts to fill its manpower gaps have been partially successful without relying primarily on conscripts and conducting a large mobilization. Ryan and Mike speculate that, in the end, this war will be decided by the country that can endure the longest, in terms of their economies, logistics, materiel, and political will. And Ukraine's endurance is tied up closely with the will of the West to continue backing Ukraine with arms and other supplies in a war that could continue to drag on for months, if not years.

Transcript

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0:00.0	You are listening to the War on the Rocks podcast on strategy, defense, and foreign affairs.
0:15.2	My name is Ryan Evans and I'm sitting here with Michael Kaufman to talk about the war in Ukraine.
0:21.4	First off, apologies for my voice and getting over a case of strep,
0:23.7	luckily not COVID.
0:24.7	Mike, could you update us on what is happening, especially in the east, in the
0:28.7	Dombas?
0:30.0	So in the last couple of weeks, I think we've seen fitful but incremental gains by the
0:35.8	Russian military in the Dunbar.
0:38.0	Most of the attention I think publicly had focused on the battle surrounding the city of Severer Dagnetsk.
0:44.4	So a fairly small city, right by a listen chance, that's been the focus of the Russian effort
0:50.0	in the Dombass, largely to try to first envelop that pocket and then to try to take
0:54.8	Sarah D'Anesk. Early on Russian forces had gotten quite far into the city.
0:59.1	Ukrainian forces launched a counterattack, beat them back, and Russian forces reinforced.
1:05.0	Now it's not clear who controls what part of the city but looks like a series of
1:09.2	pitch battles still in progress there.
1:11.3	I think that somewhat distracted attention from the wider question,
1:14.0	which is what's happening in the Russian offensive overall. It looks like the Russian
1:19.1	military has largely taken ground north of the Dineats River. They've not been very
1:25.2	successful pushing South-South West from Isum and they haven't had a major
1:30.3	breakout beyond the territory they were able to take around Papasna, which means
1:36.3	they're threatening the lines of communication to Savoyevna, but they didn't have the force
1:40.8	availability or the reserves to gain momentum.
	...

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