Is the Most Important Battle of the War Coming?

War on the Rocks

News, Politics

4.6 • 1.1K Ratings

🗓️ 11 July 2022

⏱️ 26 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

Michael Kofman joins Ryan once again to discuss the Russo-Ukrainian War. In this episode, he discusses the looming battle for Slovyansk and Kramatorsk, two small cities near each other that are likely Russia's next effort after the fall of Severodonestk. He also revisits the idea of a Ukrainian counter-offensive to retake Kherson and the prospects for when, whether, and how that could unfold. Mike and Ryan also talk about Ukraine's challenges in mobilizing enough trained manpower at the front and keeping a diverse "petting zoo" of equipment from Western backers in the fight.

Transcript

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0:00.0	You are listening to the War on the Rocks podcast on Strategy, Defense and Foreign Affairs.
0:16.2	My name is Ryan Evans and I'm sitting here again with your favorite Russian military expert
0:21.5	from Michael Coffman. Mike, thanks for coming on the show again. Great Right after we recorded our last episode, the Ukrainian seas Snake Island, which you actually predicted they might.
0:36.0	How significant is that?
0:38.0	It's a good victory for them. I think Snake Island could have been strategically relevant much further down the line.
0:46.1	In of itself, it drives the Russian military off of a control point that they might have used
0:52.3	along key maritime routes in that sort of
0:54.9	of northwestern part of the Black Sea. So I think it's a minor but nonetheless
0:59.2	significant victory for the Ukrainians. And Severnonetsk has fallen.
1:04.3	Ukrainians managed to conduct a deliberate retreat, preserving,
1:08.5	reportedly at least, the bulk of their army that was in that area. What is the next? the Luhansk, Dunyets city, Naseverdionetsk, Kharkiv is still contested further to the north.
1:27.2	What else is under Russian control in the east at this point?
1:31.0	Mario Poll obviously. Yeah, so I think that's a fair depiction. The
1:36.2	Russian military controls a small part of the High Cave region, it controls basically all of Luhansk, and it controls maybe about half
1:48.8	of the Danetsk region, and the next battle is going to be probably one of the more significant battles of this war,
1:57.8	which is the battle for Slavansk and Kramatorsk, two cities that are right next to each other, and the Russian military at this stage is trying to set up what is going to be a two-prong attack, one from a zoom to the north of
2:16.2	Savantk, and one to the east.
2:19.2	First, their units are going to try to attack a Ukrainian defensive line between Seversk and Bahmuth.
2:27.0	If you kind of look on your map, you will see these will be the forces that recently captured
2:31.5	and closed in the pocket around several
2:34.7	Denezkin Lissichonsk. Now the Russian military has sort of claimed an
2:39.0	operational pause. I don't buy it because what's really happening is that they are continuing to try to
	...

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