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War on the Rocks

Localized Offensives: The Direction of the Conflict

War on the Rocks

War on the Rocks

News, Politics

4.61.1K Ratings

🗓️ 22 December 2022

⏱️ 35 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Mike Kofman and Nick Danforth start this episode by analyzing the latest events in the war and the fighting in and around Bakhmut. Mike offers his thoughts on Russia and Ukraine's stockpiles of artillery, and what that may mean for the fighting this winter and beyond. The conversation concludes with a discussion about foreign support for the war effort, and the implications of this for the future of the conflict.

Transcript

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0:00.0

My name is Nick Tenforth, stepping in for Ryan Evans, and we're joined today by Mike Kaufman,

0:17.0

the head of the Russia team at CNA and the host of our members only podcast, The Russia Contingency.

0:22.0

Great to be here, Mike. Great talking with you and thanks for

0:25.7

filling in for Ryan while he's traveling. Always a pleasure. Let's start off by asking you for a general

0:31.0

overview of what's going on on the battlefield right now.

0:34.8

So if you take a look right now, I'm doing this in part because I think this is going to be

0:39.1

our last conversation heading into the holidays, right?

0:41.7

So there's a good chance we're not gonna talk

0:44.5

about the war, what's going on

0:46.5

until after the new year, but wars don't necessarily

0:49.4

take a calendar holiday break, right?

0:52.0

Just because it's Christmas here,

0:54.3

by the way, it's not Orthodox Christmas,

0:56.6

but it's Christmas.

0:57.7

Or New York's is coming up,

0:58.8

it doesn't mean that something's dramatically

1:00.2

gonna get a change on the battlefield. So I think there are two main areas to look.

1:04.0

One is naturally the grinding fight around Bachmoot,

1:07.0

and the other ones of situation in Luhansk

1:10.0

around the swath of a criminal line, particularly near a commune.

1:14.0

My sense of it is that around Buckmoot,

1:18.4

you basically have two types of Russian tactics.

...

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