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Capitalisn't

Why This Nobel Economist Thinks Bitcoin Is Going to Zero, with Eugene Fama

Capitalisn't

University of Chicago Podcast Network

Stigler Center, Chicago Booth, Socialism, Antitrust, University Of Chicago Podcast Network, Growth, 087667, Policy, Monopoly, Professors, Distortion, Research, Competition, Capitalisnt, Inequality, Promarket, Politics, Policymaking, Special Interest, Economics, Efficiency, Regulations, Chicago, Business, Markets, University Of Chicago, Kate Waldock, Capitalism, Friction, Bethany Mclean, Government, Macroeconomics, News, Education, Waldock, Georgetown, Microeconomics, Luigi Zingales, Zingales, Finance, Ucpn

4.5 • 584 Ratings

🗓️ 30 January 2025

⏱️ 45 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

In December 2024, Bitcoin, one of the earliest cryptocurrencies and undoubtedly the most famous, hit $2 trillion in market capitalization, bigger than Tesla, Meta, and Saudi Aramco. In this episode, Nobel Prize-winning economist and Chicago Booth finance professor Eugene Fama—widely considered the “Father of Modern Finance”—predicts it will go to zero within ten years. Legendary investor Ray Dalio called crypto a bubble a decade ago; now, he calls it “one hell of an invention.” Larry Fink of BlackRock previously referred to Bitcoin as an index of money laundering. Today, he sees it as “a legitimate financial instrument.” Less than 36 hours after launching his own cryptocurrency before his second inauguration, United States President Donald Trump appeared to have made more than $50 billion on paper for himself and his companies. (During his first term, Trump called crypto “not money, whose value is highly volatile and based on thin air.”) Amidst this noise of crypto doubters changing tune, Fama joins Bethany and Luigi to discuss why he remains dubious about Bitcoin’s ambitions. Bitcoin uses more electricity than many countries—around 91 terawatt-hours annually. Is this amount unsustainable? What makes its value so volatile, and what are the implications for the banking sector and our economy? If cryptocurrencies’ purpose is a reaction to an underlying distrust in financial institutions, can decentralized blockchain, the technological ledger that enables anonymous crypto exchange, fix it? Last but not least, why do supporters of a decentralized service, whose value lies in its existence outside traditional government structures, need to spend billions in lobbying to convince politicians, including the president, of its utility? Show Notes: Read ProMarket’s archives on Bitcoin and cryptocurrency. Revisit our prior Capitalisn’t episode with author Zeke Faux, The Capitalisn’t of Crypto: SBF and Beyond.

Transcript

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0:00.0

Cryptocurrencies are such a puzzle.

0:03.2

It's because they violate all the rules of a medium of exchange.

0:08.5

I'm Bethany McLean.

0:10.1

Did you ever have a moment of doubt about capitalism and whether greed's a good idea?

0:15.4

And I'm Luigi Zengalis.

0:16.7

We have socialism for the very rich, rugged individualism for the poor.

0:22.3

And Mrs. Capital Isn't, a podcast about what is working in capitalism.

0:26.2

First of all, tell me, is there some society you know that doesn't run on greed?

0:30.7

And most importantly, what isn't?

0:32.7

We ought to do better by the people that get left behind.

0:35.6

I don't think we shouldn't kill the capital system in the

0:37.8

process. So on Friday, January 17th, as everyone probably knows, President-elect Trump launched

0:44.7

his own cryptocurrency. The, how do you call it, the dollar sign Trump? I have no idea.

0:49.7

The Trump? I think it's called the dollar Trump. As of Sunday morning, Trump appeared to have made more than $50 billion on paper for himself and his companies.

0:58.7

Then on Sunday night, now First Lady, Melania Trump, launched her own coin, which was worth more than $5 billion within a couple of hours.

1:07.8

In addition, Bitcoin is now the seventh most valuable asset in the world.

1:13.0

This is not the onion or a skit for Saturday night life. This is capitalism, or maybe we

1:19.1

should say capital isn't, in the second quarter of the 21st century. I have to warn you,

1:24.9

Luigi, a disclaimer, that, quote, Trump memes are intended to function as an expression of support for and engagement with the ideals and beliefs embodied by the symbol, Trump, and the associated artwork, and are not intended to be or be the subject of an investment opportunity, investment contract, or security of any type.

1:43.9

GetTrumpMeems.com is not political

1:46.2

and is nothing to do with any political campaign or any political office or government agency.

1:51.3

So there.

...

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