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FiveThirtyEight Politics

Why Democrats Got Shut Out Of A Special Election In Texas

FiveThirtyEight Politics

ABC News

Politics, News

4.620.6K Ratings

🗓️ 3 May 2021

⏱️ 59 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

The crew digs into why Democrats underperformed in a special election in Texas. They also address concerns that the 2020 Census resulted in an undercount of Latinos. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcript

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0:00.0

So question before we begin, is the census a poll? Kind of?

0:07.3

It's asking a bunch of people questions, but it's not like weighted. It's more of a count.

0:13.1

I feel like it's a weird to call it a poll.

0:22.4

Hello and welcome to the 538 Politics podcast. I'm Gailan Drouk. Democrats were locked out of a

0:28.1

special election runoff in Texas's sixth congressional district in Saturday's primary.

0:33.3

It was a jungle primary, so Democrats and Republicans competed together, and the top two vote

0:38.6

gutters, both of whom are Republicans, will advance to the runoff. That precludes a democratic

0:44.1

win in what was expected to be the most competitive house special election this year.

0:49.2

The district is in the Dallas-Fort Worth area and Trump won it by three points in 2020.

0:54.3

We'll take a look at what happened there, and we're also going to check in on the results of

0:58.6

the census and the states that will be gaining and losing congressional seats as a result.

1:03.2

The latest apportionment of congressional seats continued a long-term trend of political power

1:08.2

shifting from the Northeast and Midwest to the South and West, but not by as much as was originally

1:14.6

expected. That has sparked some speculation of an undercount. Finally, we're going to discuss a

1:19.6

project from my colleagues here at 538 that contextualizes the ways in which are political institutions,

1:25.7

the Senate, the House, state legislatures, and more benefit Republicans in ways that were both

1:30.8

intended and unintended. So here with me to discuss it all, our senior politics writer Perry

1:35.8

Bacon Jr. Hey Perry. Good to see you, Galen. You too. Also here with us, elections analyst Nathaniel

1:40.8

Raikich, Hayne Nathaniel. Morning, Galen. And politics reporter Alex Samuel's. Hey, Alex.

1:45.6

Howdy, Galen. How's it going? I love the Howdy. Representing Texas today. In fact, we're going to

1:50.7

talk about Texas today. Very excited for Texas six today. Awesome. Okay, well, let's get to it.

1:56.8

We're going to start with census, though, and then we'll get to Texas six. So to begin our

...

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