FiveThirtyEight Politics

In the span of just two days, Vice President Kamala Harris consolidated support within the Democratic Party and is well on her way to securing the Democratic nomination for president. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen speaks with Mary Radcliffe and Geoffrey Skelley about what has and hasn’t changed in the newly reshaped 2024 presidential race. Harris won’t have the same challenges President Joe Biden faced when it came to perceptions of his age, and already it appears some young voters and voters of color have swung in her direction. But, similar to Biden, voters largely view Harris as more liberal than they’d like on policy. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcribed - Published: 25 July 2024

In this weekend installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew reacts to President Joe Biden dropping out of the 2024 race. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcribed - Published: 21 July 2024

On the final night of the Republican National Convention, Donald Trump accepted the Republican nomination and spoke publicly for the first time since his attempted assassination. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcribed - Published: 19 July 2024

In this late-night installment of the 538 Politics podcast, senior elections analyst Nathaniel Rakich and New York Times polling editor Ruth Igielnik join Galen to help make sense of the third night of the Republican National Convention. Plus: How should we interpret polls that show a majority of Democrats want President Joe Biden to step aside? Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcribed - Published: 18 July 2024

In this late-night installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew reacts to the first two days of the Republican National Convention. They also discuss the latest developments in President Joe Biden’s efforts to stay atop the Democratic ticket. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcribed - Published: 17 July 2024

In this bonus installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew discusses former president Donald Trump’s choice of running mate: Ohio senator J.D. Vance. The “Hillbilly Elegy” author is unique among past running mates for his lack of political experience — and for his beard. What kind of running mate might he be? And will it matter? Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcribed - Published: 15 July 2024

In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew reacts to the assassination attempt against former President Donald Trump. They discuss the impact on the country and community and also look at public opinion data on political violence. They also look at historical examples of such violence and track how lawmakers are reacting today. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcribed - Published: 15 July 2024

The purgatory continues. The number of lawmakers saying President Joe Biden should not run for reelection continues to tick up, while Biden’s answer — that he is staying in the race — remains the same. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, we look at data on which lawmakers are calling on Biden to step aside and who is continuing to support him. The RNC also released its proposed platform this week and we use a good or bad use of polling example to better understand whether former President Donald Trump’s (and Biden's) policies are popular. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcribed - Published: 11 July 2024

As the Senate returns to Washington for the first time since President Joe Biden’s disastrous debate performance, the president appears to be digging in his heels. In a letter to Democratic lawmakers sent Monday morning, Biden was adamant that he is staying in the presidential race. But it does not seem like the interested parties are taking Biden’s insistence as the final word on the issue. With just six weeks until the Democratic National Convention, how does this all end? And following landmark elections in Britain and France, we travel across the pond for an international edition of “good or bad use of polling.” Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcribed - Published: 8 July 2024

President Joe Biden, in an exclusive interview with ABC News anchor George Stephanopoulos that aired Friday night, acknowledged last week's debate was a "bad episode" but pushed back strongly against broader questions about his age and mental fitness. Biden's sit-down with ABC News was his first television interview since the June 27 debate. Hear the interview now, in its entirety, on ABC News' "Start Here" podcast: Apple Podcasts (http://bit.ly/3VmuAnm), Spotify (http://bit.ly/3j947fm), Amazon Music (http://bit.ly/3FGMkDT), or wherever you listen. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcribed - Published: 6 July 2024

Happy Fourth of July! To celebrate our independence from Great Britain, the 538 Politics podcast is actually turning its attention to the United Kingdom's upcoming election. The U.K. is holding its first national election in four and a half years on July 4 and the polling suggests the Labour Party will make historic gains, booting Conservatives from power for the first time in 14 years. To get a sense of the forces behind the dramatic shift since 2019, two longtime friends of the podcast weigh in. Helen Thompson is a professor of political economy at Cambridge University and host of the "These Times" podcast. David Runciman is a professor of politics at Cambridge and host of the podcast "Past Present Future." Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcribed - Published: 4 July 2024

The ground has started to shift beneath President Joe Biden's feet. Between Tuesday and Wednesday, multiple Democratic lawmakers raised questions about his viability as a candidate in 2024 and weighed in on who might replace him should he step aside. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen Druke speaks with Senior Elections Analyst Geoffrey Skelley about the latest data on how voters are reacting to Biden's debate performance and what could happen next. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcribed - Published: 3 July 2024

Since Thursday, the only story in American politics has been President Joe Biden's poor debate performance and what on earth Democrats are going to do about it. That was until today, when the Supreme Court ruled that American presidents have legal immunity for official acts. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen Druke speaks with Jessica Roth, a law professor and former federal prosecutor, about the details of the Supreme Court's ruling. Then 538's Nathaniel Rakich and Tia Yang discuss the continued fallout from the presidential debate. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcribed - Published: 1 July 2024

Galen reacts to the first 2024 presidential debate between President Biden and former President Donald Trump with senior elections analyst Nathaniel Rakich and New York Times polling editor Ruth Igielnik. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcribed - Published: 28 June 2024

This Thursday, President Biden and former President Donald Trump will go head-to-head in the earliest presidential debate ever. It is also the first contest between a president and former president in over a century and the first debate not run by the Commission on Presidential Debates since 1988. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew discusses whether historical expectations for presidential debates will apply in this unique situation. They also dissect some questionable uses of polling and preview a couple of high-profile primary races in New York and Colorado. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcribed - Published: 24 June 2024

There are more people voting in 2024 than ever before. This year, elections are taking place in at least 64 countries, as well as the European Union, totaling almost half of the world’s population. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen sits down with Richard Wike, director of Pew’s Global Attitudes Research, and Matthias Matthijs, senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, to talk about whether voters are behaving similarly across the globe. One of the biggest trends they discuss: a deep sense of discontent with the people in power. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcribed - Published: 20 June 2024

Last week we got significant news in two key issue areas that might shape how voters are thinking this fall: the economy and abortion legality. First, on Wednesday, the latest consumer price index data showed inflation cooling more than expected. Then, on Thursday, the Supreme Court ruled unanimously to uphold access to the abortion medication mifepristone by mail. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen speaks with Senior Researcher Mary Radcliffe and Senior Elections Analyst Nathaniel Rakich about how voters are are thinking about the issues of the economy and abortion access in 2024 and how that will, in turn, affect their votes. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcribed - Published: 17 June 2024

Last month, a bipartisan group of senators unveiled a roadmap for artificial intelligence policy, proposing $32 billion in funding to support AI research. The plan has raised numerous questions about whether and how the government intends to regulate the rapidly evolving tech industry, especially in areas related to copyright and privacy. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen speaks with Gregory Allen, Director of the Wadhwani Center for AI and Advanced Technologies, about the politics of AI regulation. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcribed - Published: 13 June 2024

The 2024 presidential election forecast is live. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen sits down with director of data analytics G. Elliott Morris to talk about the even odds between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump. While Trump leads in the polls nationally and in the battleground states, the fundamentals favor Biden, resulting in an extremely close call between the two. Elliott and Galen discuss the sources of uncertainty in the forecast and what we might expect between now and Election Day. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcribed - Published: 11 June 2024

This installment of the 538 Politics podcast comes to you from the nation's capital, where Galen is joined in-studio by senior elections analyst Nathaniel Rakich and friend of the podcast, New York Times polling editor Ruth Igielnik. They talk about the latest polling since former president Donald Trump's guilty verdict in his Manhattan hush-money trial and President Joe Biden's decision to issue an executive order restricting asylum at the southern border. They also play a game of historical election trivia, drawing parallels from past elections to today. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcribed - Published: 6 June 2024

It's been four days since former President Donald Trump’s guilty verdict in the Manhattan criminal case, and the early indication from the polls is that there has been a small shift away from Trump in head-to-head polling with President Joe Biden. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, we talk about the latest data and whether we expect that shift to endure. We are also now officially on Supreme Court decision watch, with cases surrounding Jan. 6, the Second Amendment and abortion medication regulations yet to be decided. To prepare for those coming opinions, we play a game of “Guess What Americans Think: Supreme Court Edition.” Do Americans approve of the current court? And do they think it will deliver an unbiased decision on Trump’s presidential immunity case? Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcribed - Published: 3 June 2024

On Thursday, a Manhattan jury found former President Donald Trump guilty of all 34 felony counts of falsifying business records in connection with hush money payments to Stormy Daniels. In this 538 Politics reaction podcast, Galen speaks with former federal prosecutor Jessica Roth about the legal implications of the jury's finding. Then 538's Nathaniel Rakich joins the podcast to discuss the possible political implications of the guilty verdict. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcribed - Published: 31 May 2024

Closing arguments have wrapped up in former President Donald Trump’s first criminal trial, where he is being accused of falsifying business records in connection to a hush money payment made to adult film actor Stormy Daniels during his 2016 presidential campaign. This marks the beginning of the end of the first criminal prosecution of a former American president, and the verdict could affect his future career in politics. In the latest installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen talks with Jessica Roth, a law professor and former federal prosecutor, to discuss the trial. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcribed - Published: 28 May 2024

It’s been a newsy week for elections here at home and across the pond. On Wednesday, in her first public appearance since dropping out of the Republican primary, former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley said that she is going to vote for former President Donald Trump this fall. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, we ask whether her endorsement actually matters to voters. We also indulge in some British politics, with the announcement that the U.K. will hold general elections on July 4. The electoral picture for the Conservative Party is currently abysmal and they have six weeks to try to change it. And we check in on lessons from the downballot primaries that played out in Georgia and Oregon. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcribed - Published: 23 May 2024

This is the third installment of the 538 Politics podcast mini-series, “Campaign Throwback.” Across three episodes, we're taking a look back at campaign tropes from past elections such as, “it’s the economy, stupid,” or “soccer moms” or that question about which candidate you’d rather share a beer with. We’ll ask where those tropes came from, whether they were actually true at the time and if they still hold up today. In our third installment: "the beer question." After the 2000 and 2004 elections, political observers remarked that Republican George W. Bush defeated his Democratic opponents in part because he was the candidate who voters would rather "have a beer with." The phrase quickly became a cliche for evaluating a candidate's likability or relatability. But is it really how voters choose their presidents? Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcribed - Published: 22 May 2024

It’s no secret that we are headed toward a presidential election that many Americans said they didn’t want. Somewhere in the range of 20 percent of Americans have an unfavorable view of both former President Donald Trump and President Joe Biden, and if ratings are any indication, a lot of folks seem to be tuning campaign news out. So what does this portend for turnout? We’ve been in an era of high-turnout elections since 2016, but will fatigue or disdain keep people home this fall? In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew debates what kind of turnout we should expect and why it matters. They also discuss why Biden and Trump decided to go forward with two earlier-than-usual debates. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcribed - Published: 20 May 2024

Concerns about democracy are central to the 2024 election. Late last year, Gallup recorded a record low number of Americans who said they are satisfied with the way democracy is working. And in the latest polling from The New York Times/Siena College, 14 percent of voters said the economic and political system needs to be torn down entirely, while 55 percent said it needs major changes. To better understand how Americans are thinking about democracy heading into the election, 538 teamed up with PerryUndem, a nonpartisan research firm, to conduct focus groups with voters. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, we hear from those voters. We also speak with Gretchen Helmke of Bright Line Watch, which conducts regular polling of experts and Americans on the potential threats to democracy. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcribed - Published: 16 May 2024

This is the second installment of the 538 Politics podcast mini-series, “Campaign Throwback.” Across three episodes, we're taking a look back at campaign tropes from past elections such as, “it’s the economy, stupid,” or “soccer moms” or that question about which candidate you’d rather share a beer with. We’ll ask where those tropes came from, whether they were actually true at the time and if they still hold up today. In our second installment: "soccer moms." In 1992, Bill Clinton won the presidential election in what was called the "year of the woman" after a record number of women ran for office and won. As the 1996 election took shape, gender politics were still at the forefront of campaign coverage. As Clinton’s popularity was growing and Dole was lagging in the early polls, the idea took hold that “soccer moms” might either save Dole’s chances or ensure that Clinton made it over the edge. But when the election was all said and done, was that conventional wisdom correct? Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcribed - Published: 15 May 2024

Three months ago, as the presidential primaries were getting underway, President Joe Biden was trailing former President Donald Trump in the polls nationally and in battleground states, and concerns about his age were coming to the fore. The optimistic view for Biden was that once the presidential primaries were over, and it became clear that the choice was a 2020 rematch, the polls would move in his direction. But the polls have changed little. In fact, a new set of battleground polls from The New York Times/Siena College shows Biden trailing in all but one of the battleground states, with a lead for Trump as high as 12 points in Nevada. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew asks why the end of the primaries, weeks of Biden campaigning and millions spent on advertising have changed the polls little. They also preview Tuesday's primaries in Maryland and West Virginia, in particular a very competitive Democratic Senate primary in Maryland. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcribed - Published: 13 May 2024

Six months out, how does the conventional wisdom about the 2024 election compare with how we are thinking about the numbers here at 538? Are election watchers thinking in a clear-eyed way about an election that will undoubtedly produce a lot of emotion and narratives? Unfortunately we don’t have a conventional wisdom thermometer in the office, so in this installment of the 538 Politics podcast we put that wisdom to the test with a game of “Buy, Sell, Hold.” We look at where the betting markets place the likelihood of everything from former President Donald Trump picking South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem as his running mate to Democrats winning a Senate race in Ohio, and decide whether the odds are appropriately priced. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcribed - Published: 9 May 2024

This is the first installment of the 538 Politics podcast mini-series, “Campaign Throwback.” Across three episodes, we're taking a look back at campaign tropes from past elections such as, “it’s the economy, stupid,” or “soccer moms” or that question about which candidate you’d rather share a beer with. We’ll ask where those tropes came from, whether they were actually true at the time and if they still hold up today. Our first installment: “It’s the economy, stupid.” It's a trope that dates back to Bill Clinton's 1992 presidential campaign. Clinton's chief strategist at the time, James Carville, had three main messages for his staff to remember: 1) Change vs. more of the same 2) The economy, stupid, and 3) Don't forget about healthcare. The second message was memorialized in a 1993 documentary about the Clinton campaign called "The War Room," and has taken on a life of its own in the field of election analysis. But is it accurate? https://surfshark.deals/FIVE38 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcribed - Published: 8 May 2024

College graduation season is getting underway, with a spotlight on campus protests over the war in Gaza. Some universities have canceled commencement events after local police were called in to numerous campuses to disband encampments and make arrests. All of this is focusing attention on the youth vote and how these scenes could shape Americans’ votes this fall. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, we dig into it. We also ask whether a new poll from the Robert F. Kennedy Jr. campaign is a good or bad use of polling. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcribed - Published: 6 May 2024

For much of Joe Biden’s presidency, political observers have puzzled over a disconnect between economic indicators and consumer sentiment. Unemployment is low, growth has been persistent and inflation is receding. Yet, the vibes aren’t great. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, we hear from undecided voters who participated in a focus group with PerryUndem and 538's Senior Politics Reporter Monica Potts, which focused on feelings about the economy. Later in the show, Galen speaks with 538 researcher and editor Cooper Burton about an algorithm 538 built to group House members into caucuses based on how they vote. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcribed - Published: 2 May 2024

Former president Donald Trump’s legal saga reached two major milestones last week. In Manhattan, former National Enquirer publisher David Pecker testified about a “catch and kill” scheme that prosecutors say was meant to help Trump win the 2016 presidential election. Meanwhile, on Thursday, the Supreme Court heard oral arguments on whether presidential immunity protected Trump from prosecution in the federal case related to Jan. 6. The court’s conservative majority appeared sympathetic to at least some of the Trump team’s claims, raising the likelihood that any trial will not begin until after the November election. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, law professor Jessica Roth joins Galen to discuss the latest developments and preview what comes next. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcribed - Published: 29 April 2024

The 538 presidential general election polling averages are officially live! That means no more poll-by-poll whiplash; for a sense of the state of the race nationally and in the battleground states, head to abcnews.com/538. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen speaks with Director of Data Analytics G. Elliott Morris about the main takeaways from the averages and what kinds of data they consider. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcribed - Published: 25 April 2024

After months of conflict over whether or how to aid American allies abroad, the House passed a slate of bills providing funding for Ukraine, Israel, Gazan humanitarian assistance and Taiwan. Each bill won a clear bipartisan majority, but a slim majority of Republicans opposed Ukraine aid. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen speaks with Rachael Bade, Geoffrey Skelley and Kaleigh Rogers about why this happened now and whether it spells doom for House Speaker Mike Johnson. They also preview primary election day in one of the most pivotal states this fall: Pennsylvania. And they mark Earth Day with an installment of "Guess What Americans Think," on the topic of climate change. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcribed - Published: 22 April 2024

The jury selection process is still underway in former President Donald Trump's Manhattan criminal trial. In order to get on the jury, Manhattanites responded to a questionnaire with 42 questions ranging from whether they belong to QAnon or Antifa to what podcasts they listen to. The attorneys on both sides scrutinized their social media posts, asked them about their opinions of Trump, and had the opportunity to ask they be removed from consideration. This is all with the goal of impaneling an unbiased jury. It’s one of the most important parts of the process and also gets at the heart of a lot of what we talk about on the 538 Politics podcast. Based on a person’s own biography and demography, how do they feel about the former president and his criminal prosecution? In this installment of the podcast, Galen speaks with law professors Jessica Roth and Valerie Hans about the challenges of jury selection and what lack of bias we can expect from jurors in such a unique trial. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcribed - Published: 18 April 2024

Monday marked the start of the first-ever criminal trial of a former president. The case — one of potentially four trials facing former President Donald Trump — revolves around alleged hush money payments made to Stormy Daniels to try to conceal damaging information during the 2016 election. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew looks at the political stakes of the case and how they compare to Trump's other legal liability. They also discuss how Republicans are positioning themselves on Arizona's unpopular 1864-era abortion ban and debate whether the latest campaign fundraising data actually says anything about the competitiveness of the presidential candidates. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcribed - Published: 15 April 2024

In the 2020 election, young voters were key to President Joe Biden’s victory. Biden won voters age 18 to 29 by more than 20 points, and the turnout rate among young voters was the highest it has been in decades. But recent polls show Biden slipping among voters under 30. The upshot spells danger for Democrats: According to 538's Swing-O-Matic, if young voters shifted toward former President Donald Trump this fall by just 5 points and everything else remained the same, Trump would win. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen discusses young voters’ role in the 2024 election with John Della Volpe, the director of polling at the Harvard Kennedy School Institute of Politics, and Lakshya Jain, partner at the election modeling website Split-Ticket.org. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcribed - Published: 11 April 2024

On this solar eclipse day installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew tests their polling knowledge on the rare celestial event with a special edition of “Guess What Americans Think.” They also preview 538’s new Swing-O-Matic, a tool that lets you model demographic changes in the 2024 election and see their resulting electoral impacts. And in our latest installment of the 2024 VP draft, the crew takes a guess at who could be former President Donald Trump’s pick for the position. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcribed - Published: 8 April 2024

Americans are becoming less religious and two new surveys out just last week punctuate just how quickly that’s happening. According to the Public Religion Research Institute, 26 percent of Americans now consider themselves unaffiliated with any religion. That’s up from 21 percent a decade ago and just 6 percent in the early '90s. According to Gallup, the number of Americans who attend religious services weekly or nearly every week has fallen from 42 percent in 2000 to 30 percent now. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen speaks with a roundtable of experts on religion and society about why the decline has happened and what it portends for American communities, networks and politics. Joining the podcast are Melissa Deckman, CEO of the Public Religion Research Institute; Ryan Burge, Professor of Political Science at Eastern Illinois University and a Baptist Pastor; and Daniel Cox, Director of the Survey Center on American Life. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcribed - Published: 4 April 2024

In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen and the crew talk about air travel and how Americans feel about flying in a game of “Guess What Americans Think.” They also weigh if the U.S. Census Bureau’s new way of collecting data on race and ethnicity is a “good or bad use of polling.” Later in the episode, they pivot to discuss the Supreme Court's hearing on restrictions surrounding the abortion medication mifepristone, and explore the challenges third-party candidates face in getting on the ballot. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcribed - Published: 1 April 2024

A handful of recent polls and election results indicate that American politics may be undergoing a racial realignment, with voters of color challenging traditional partisan alliances. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen talks about these shifting dynamics with John Burn-Murdoch, chief data reporter for the Financial Times, and Chryl Laird, government and politics professor at the University of Maryland. They explore why voters of color might be shifting right and what it could mean for Democrats. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcribed - Published: 28 March 2024

Is the presidential election undergoing a vibe shift? At the beginning of the month, former President Donald Trump was performing 10 percentage points better than President Joe Biden in net approval rating. Today that’s fallen to a 4-point advantage. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew assesses what's changed. They also ask why so many representatives in the House are resigning earlier on in their careers and they take a look at a new poll showing Republican Larry Hogan leading in the Maryland Senate race by double digits. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcribed - Published: 25 March 2024

Last week, the House of Representatives passed a bipartisan bill that would ban TikTok unless its owner, the Chinese company ByteDance, sells its stake in the app. This decision has ignited a national debate about TikTok and the effects of social media. So, in true 538 fashion, we’re reintroducing a segment we like to call ‘Debate Club’ to discuss the issue. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Senior Elections Analyst Geoffrey Skelley, Podcast Intern Jala Everett, and Senior Editor and Senior Elections Analyst Nathaniel Rakich engage in a spirited debate. They'll defend their arguments on whether to ban TikTok, maintain the status quo or even consider banning social media altogether. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcribed - Published: 21 March 2024

The presidential candidates are trying to crowd us out of the polling analysis business with their own takes on the polls! In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew assesses whether President Joe Biden's dismissal of polls because of declining response rates is fair. They also reexamine a viral poll from late last year that suggested 20 percent of young Americans think the Holocaust is a myth. It turned out to likely be bogus. And they preview Tuesday's primary in Ohio that will determine which Republican runs against Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcribed - Published: 18 March 2024

After Tuesday’s primaries, President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump have mathematically clinched their parties’ nominations. And now, it’s off to the races. Over the past week, Biden has made campaign stops in Pennsylvania, Georgia, New Hampshire, Michigan and Wisconsin. Trump was also in Georgia last weekend and he’ll be in Ohio on Saturday. These kinds of campaign stops are a cornerstone of presidential campaigns and we can expect a lot more of them between now and November. There’s only one problem: According to political scientist Chris Devine, they don’t actually work. At least, not all that well and not in the ways you’d expect. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Devine talks about his recently published book called, “I’m Here to Ask for Your Vote: How Presidential Campaign Visits Influence Voters." Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcribed - Published: 14 March 2024

The general election has begun in earnest and in this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew assesses how the country is feeling about it with a game of “Guess What Americans Think.” What percentage of Americans think the country is on the right track? Or that their preferred candidate will win? They also ask whether a poll suggesting that Gen Z voters are paying more attention to viral TikToks than the Alabama Supreme Court ruling on in vitro fertilization is a “good or bad use of polling.” Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcribed - Published: 11 March 2024

In this late night installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew reacts to President Biden's State of the Union speech and Alabama Sen. Katie Britt's rebuttal. Both put top 2024 campaign issue front and center. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcribed - Published: 8 March 2024

In a late-night podcast, the crew reacts to the Super Tuesday results, including a win by former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley in Vermont and a win by entrepreneur Jason Palmer in American Samoa. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcribed - Published: 6 March 2024