Why China Won't Invade Taiwan | NonZero World feat. Dan Grazier

Robert Wright's Nonzero

Nonzero

News & Politics, Society & Culture, Philosophy

4.7 • 618 Ratings

🗓️ 19 July 2025

⏱️ 40 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

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0:30 Why a Chinese invasion of Taiwan is so unlikely 4:01 Taiwan’s terrain: A defender’s dream, an invader’s nightmare 10:55 Why Taipei might be the hardest city in the world to conquer 12:45 Dan: China would need nearly 5 million soldiers to have a chance 14:18 The 2027 invasion theory—and why it doesn’t hold up 16:37 Is China trying to bankrupt the US military? 19:23 A cheaper, smarter way to defend Taiwan 22:42 Submarines: A deterrent with a message 27:47 Comparing a Taiwan invasion to D-Day 31:27 China's long game 35:32 Why a blockade might be worse than an invasion

Recorded July 18, 2025.

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Transcript

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0:00.0	You're listening to Non-Zero World.
0:04.1	I'm your host, Connor Eccles.
0:08.6	Each week, I break down the latest developments in U.S. foreign policy and other global news,
0:14.3	and I interview a leading expert or activist.
0:17.0	To gain access to full-length episodes and other exclusive content,
0:23.1	become an NZN member today at Robert Wright's Non-Zero Newsletter at NONZero.org.
0:30.3	Hey, Dan, how you doing?
0:32.4	Hey, Connor, I'm doing very well.
0:33.7	How about yourself?
0:35.0	Pretty darn good.
0:35.8	Why don't I go ahead and introduce us? I am Connor
0:38.4	Eccles, the managing editor of Non Zero and the host of this podcast, which is Non Zero World,
0:44.5	the weekend edition of Robert Wright's Non Zero podcast. You are Dan Grazier, a senior fellow at the
0:51.4	Stimson Center and also the director of the National Security Reform
0:56.0	Program over there. And I'm having you on today because I saw a really interesting piece from you
1:01.5	this week in Responsible Statecraft in which you laid out an argument about the defensibility
1:09.5	of Taiwan that is so different than what you usually hear in Washington.
1:14.3	You know, we usually hear that we need to direct our entire military industrial complex,
1:19.4	all of our efforts towards defending Taiwan.
1:21.8	But your view seems to be much more in the direction that an invasion of Taiwan is actually
1:26.3	exceedingly unlikely. And so that's kind of
1:29.2	the argument that I want to unpack with you today. So maybe to start off, can you, can you lay out
	...

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