this urban rule divided which we've seen in the US, which we've seen in the UK and in many

western election campaigns playing out. This is also very much the case in this French presidential

election this year. Are you on the side of nations or are you on the side of bigger ideas like the

European Union, like the Western world and all of that?

Hello and welcome to the 530 Politics podcast. I'm Galen Twork. This Sunday, French voters will head

to the polls to choose their president for the next five years. The first round of voting

whittled the options down to two earlier this month. Voters will now choose between the incumbent,

centrist Amman-Wel Macron and the far right candidate Marine Le Pen, who is making her third bid

for the presidency. The contest will serve as a rematch of the election five years ago in which

Macron won with two thirds of the vote. This time however, the race appears to be much closer.

According to Politico Europe's average of the polls, 55% of French voters support Macron

and 45% support Le Pen. So while Macron is certainly the favorite, sizeable polling errors

have happened before in French elections. Macron's popularity leapt in the early days of Russia's

invasion of Ukraine, but it has since fallen, as focus has turned to the cost of living and public

benefits, issues that have been central to Le Pen's campaign. So today, we're going to take a look at

the dynamics playing out in France's election, see how things may be similar or different to the US

and of course get acquainted with French polling. So here with me to do that is Cornelius Hirsch,

the founder of Politico Europe's poll of polls, or perhaps you could say, European 538.

Cornelius has joined us before to talk about the German election, Covid reactions, and more.

Welcome back to the podcast, Cornelius. Hi, Gail. So great to be back.

Also here with us is Clia Callcut, French politics reporter at Politico Europe. Welcome,

it's good to have you. Hi. So Cornelius, let's dive right into the needy-grady of forecasting

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