What Next - Where Insider Trading Becomes Treason
Slate News
Slate Podcasts
4.5 • 6K Ratings
🗓️ 31 March 2026
⏱️ 23 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
A flurry of activity in the oil-futures market, minutes before Donald Trump made a big announcement about not striking at Iranian infrastructure, has all the appearance of someone using classified national security information to turn a profit.
Guest: Paul Krugman, Nobel-Prize winning economist and author of paulkrugman.substack.com.
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Podcast production by Elena Schwartz, Paige Osburn, Anna Phillips, Madeline Ducharme, and Rob Gunther.
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Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Paul Krugman has the gentle and precise cadence you might expect from a guy who has won a Nobel Prize in economics. |
| 0:14.8 | But every once in a while, his careful tone gives way to a sick burn. |
| 0:21.2 | All the way back in 2016, he called Donald Trump's economic policies completely incoherent, for instance. |
| 0:27.6 | In the last week, he's used a different descriptor for Trump world shenanigans. |
| 0:33.4 | Economic treason. |
| 0:43.6 | I wanted Paul to talk about this allegation. But before we get into it, |
| 0:48.5 | let me just explain what he's talking about here. Last week, you might remember that the president did this funny two-step on Iran. He began by threatening to obliterate Iranian power plants unless the straight of Hormuz was |
| 0:55.7 | opened back up again. He gave a 48-hour deadline. Then Trump pulled back on his threat. But a few minutes |
| 1:03.4 | before he did, the oil markets saw a massive spike in activity, a spike so huge that it seems |
| 1:09.7 | clear, somebody knew something. |
| 1:13.3 | Yeah, so there were two places where there were sudden, you know, we had, we don't know who, |
| 1:18.4 | but we know that somebody did big trades because we do have volume measures in financial markets. |
| 1:24.1 | This is Paul. There's the oil futures market, which is where people buy and sell contracts |
| 1:29.4 | on a barrel of oil in the future, usually just the not very distant future. As somebody sold, |
| 1:39.4 | the Financial Times went and estimated it, sold about $580 million worth of oil futures, just at |
| 1:47.1 | 649 a.m. And the announcement on Truth Social came at 705. So, you know, right there. |
| 1:52.7 | Is that a time when trades are usually happening like that? Yeah, but not much. I mean, |
| 1:57.9 | the futures market is open, but it's very sleepy. That's why we know that this was not a, you know, |
| 2:04.7 | a normal thing. You look at the at the minute-by-minute transactions and sort of a little bit of |
| 2:09.7 | self- bouncing along. And then there's a big spike. And at that minute, somebody made a big trade. |
| 2:16.1 | So it's obvious that it's one person? |
| 2:18.2 | Or a cabal of people, you know, a group of people, but it's essentially one actor somehow |
... |
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