Wednesday - July 9, 2025
The Dividend Cafe
The Dividend Cafe - The Bahnsen Group
4.9 • 572 Ratings
🗓️ 9 July 2025
⏱️ 9 minutes
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Summary
Market Recovery and Economic Indicators: Analyzing July 9th
In this episode of Dividend Cafe, Brian Szytel updates listeners on the financial markets for July 9th, with the Dow rising 217 points and other major indices showing gains. He discusses trends such as tight credit spreads, high equity flows, and low volatility. Brian delves into the implications of economic data like mortgage applications and wholesale inventories. Additionally, he reflects on recent Fed minutes, and shares a comprehensive response from David addressing concerns about the long-term sustainability of market growth, emphasizing a tailored, long-term investment strategy.
00:00 Market Recap: July 9th
00:54 Economic Indicators and Market Sentiment
01:31 Tariffs and Market Desensitization
02:48 Fed Minutes and Mortgage Applications
03:29 Wholesale Inventories and Consumer Sales
04:14 Q&A: Market Predictions and Portfolio Strategy
06:18 Closing Thoughts and Upcoming Events
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Welcome to the Dividend Cafe weekly market commentary focused on dividends in your portfolio and dividends in your understanding of economic life. |
| 0:10.0 | Welcome back to Dividend Cafe. This is Wednesday, July the 9th. Brian Saitel is with you here today on bucking of the trend here in markets. We actually had an |
| 0:21.9 | update here after two days of the lower numbers. On the day, we had the Dow up 217 points and the |
| 0:28.6 | S&P up about 6 tenths of a percent, NASDAQ up about 9 tenths of a percent, with 10-year |
| 0:34.1 | treasury off about six basis points on the day and there was a 10-year auction today |
| 0:38.9 | that was sizable that went better than expected. So that decrease in interest rates, all else being |
| 0:43.4 | equal, meaning that earnings aren't out yet until next week. Tariffs are not in the front headline, |
| 0:49.5 | I guess, as of today. All in all things, generally positive markets recovered here after a little bit of a sell |
| 0:54.8 | off, which is nice to see. He actually had the market open for the most part at the highs. Then sell |
| 0:59.6 | off back to fair value around 10 o'clock Eastern and then we close not at the highs but close to it. |
| 1:05.5 | It's all and all fairly positive. There was a couple of pieces of data out in the economic calendar |
| 1:10.0 | that I'll go through. |
| 1:11.4 | But before I do that, if you look at things like credit spreads that are basically not at all-time |
| 1:16.4 | tights, but very tight, that's meaning that there isn't as much risk priced into the bond market |
| 1:21.8 | into the credit market. |
| 1:23.2 | If you look at equity flows, they're very high. |
| 1:25.4 | So the equity flows are getting a little bit exuberant. There's some animal spirits stirring. And then if you look at equity flows, they're very high. So the equity flows are getting a little bit exuberant. |
| 1:29.0 | There's some animal spirits stirring. |
| 1:30.5 | And then if you look at the volatility index or the VIX, back in the say 15s, which is very low, all of those things are suggesting the market is positive, which is why it's trading where it is. |
| 1:40.4 | But none of those things should be surprising. |
| 1:43.5 | In other words, yes, we have things like tariffs |
| 1:45.8 | that are out there that caused a lot of volatility in April, but since April, the entire time, |
... |
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