Tuesday - July 8, 2025
The Dividend Cafe
The Dividend Cafe - The Bahnsen Group
4.9 • 572 Ratings
🗓️ 8 July 2025
⏱️ 5 minutes
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Summary
Market Reaction to Triple B Bill and Upcoming Economic Indicators
In this episode of Dividend Cafe, Brian Szytel covers the market downturn dated July 8th, following the passage of the 'Triple B' bill in Congress. Despite the bill's passage, markets experienced a sell-off due to pre-existing pricing anticipations. The episode discusses ongoing tariff talks and the extension of deadlines related to these discussions. Key financial index performances are reviewed, stating that the Dow Jones and S&P 500 saw minimal declines, while NASDAQ and the 10-year Treasury yield remained relatively steady. Important economic indicators such as the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index and New York Fed's consumer expectations survey are highlighted, showing slight declines in small business optimism and inflation forecasts respectively. Brian also touches on the resilience of the US macroeconomy and the subdued growth expectations for the upcoming Q2 earning season. The Q&A segment addresses the role of Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve in interest rate decisions.
00:00 Introduction and Market Overview
00:12 Impact of the Triple B Bill
00:53 Market Performance and Economic Calendar
01:27 Inflation and Economic Expectations
02:33 Federal Reserve and Interest Rates
03:19 Closing Remarks and Q&A
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Welcome to the Dividend Cafe weekly market commentary focused on dividends in your portfolio and dividends in your understanding of economic life. |
| 0:10.0 | Welcome to Dividend Cafe. This is Tuesday, July the 8th. Brian Saitel with you here on another down day in markets. We had a sell-off yesterday of over 400 |
| 0:23.7 | points. This was after the Triple B bill passed, the big, beautiful bill passed through both chambers |
| 0:29.2 | of Congress and is a perfect point as to why markets tend to price things in advance. And so |
| 0:35.0 | most of the good stuff was already priced in. Classic by the rumor sell the news, action the last two days in markets, at least on that front. |
| 0:42.3 | But the market was down today and a fairly quiet day on the economic calendar, |
| 0:46.3 | and a lot of it was around continued tariff talks. There's kind of an alluded to at least extension |
| 0:52.3 | of the July 9th deadline to August 1st. |
| 0:55.0 | The White House is still going through and trying to get deals done and has also alluded to several of them being in the works. |
| 1:01.0 | You know how volatile the tariff news is back and forth, and so I'll leave it at that. |
| 1:05.0 | The Dow Jones was down 165 points. |
| 1:09.0 | S&P 500 was down just about four points, I'll call it flat. Nasdaq was up |
| 1:14.5 | five points. I'll call that flat too. Ten-year treasury was up two bases points. We closed at |
| 1:19.1 | 441. There was a couple of pieces of news out in the economic calendar. There was an NFIB small business |
| 1:25.0 | optimism index. This comes out every month, and it was down slightly. |
| 1:30.1 | And that was largely, by the way, on inventory build. |
| 1:33.2 | But it was in line with expectations and basically right at the inline with the average over the last 50 years or so. |
| 1:39.8 | There was also the New York Fed June survey of consumer expectations, which is an inflation read, |
| 1:45.7 | and the inflation numbers came down a little bit. May had it at 3.2 from a year from now. |
| 1:51.3 | The June number moved that down to 3%. And then the five-year number was held steady at 2.6%, |
| 1:58.1 | which is probably a more normalized inflation reading. I suspect over time |
| 2:02.4 | that these numbers will continue to trickle down. That's what we've been talking about now for |
... |
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