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The Dividend Cafe

Thursday - July 10, 2025

The Dividend Cafe

The Dividend Cafe - The Bahnsen Group

Estate Planning, Investing, Retirement Planning, Wealth Management, Business, Macro Economics, Dividend Growth Investing, Monetary Policy

4.9572 Ratings

🗓️ 10 July 2025

⏱️ 7 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Market Recap and Earnings Outlook: Fundamentals Return to Focus

In this episode of Dividend Cafe, recorded on Thursday, July 10, Brian Szytel discusses recent market movements and economic updates. After two days of market declines, the DOW Jones, S&P, and Nasdaq saw positive increases. The 10-year bond yield remained stable, while jobless claims data showed better-than-expected initial claims, although continuing claims edged higher. Brian highlights the shift back to earnings fundamentals, upcoming CPI data, and the onset of earnings season as key market drivers. He also discusses the bearish sentiment on the US dollar and precious metals. Additionally, Brian answers a question about Required Minimum Distributions (RMDs) for those turning 73 and provides a sneak peek of the long-form Dividend Cafe episode focused on a major legislative bill and its impacts. Tune in for a detailed market analysis and strategic insights.

00:00 Introduction and Market Overview

00:35 Economic Calendar and Jobless Claims

01:09 Earnings Season and Market Sentiment

02:08 Precious Metals and US Dollar Sentiment

02:47 Interest Rates and Earnings Expectations

03:46 Fundamentals and Market Sentiment

03:57 RMD Guidelines and Tax Implications

05:00 Upcoming Long Form Dividend Cafe

05:25 Conclusion and Viewer Engagement

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com

TheBahnsenGroup.com

Transcript

Click on a timestamp to play from that location

0:00.0

Welcome to the Dividend Cafe weekly market commentary focused on dividends in your portfolio and dividends in your understanding of economic life.

0:12.2

Welcome back to Dividend Cafe. This is Thursday, July the 10th. Brian Saitel with you here on a generally positive day overall in markets.

0:20.6

So what we've got basically two down days of Monday and Tuesday and now two up days of Wednesday and Thursday to head into the quieter week here and weekend, at least on the economic calendar.

0:31.6

But today the Dow Jones was up 192 points.

0:34.4

S&P was up a quarter of a percent.

0:36.4

NASDAQ was up marginally, a little above flat on the day.

0:40.9

Ten year was almost even up about a basis point to be closed at 435.

0:46.0

So there's your market movement. Economic calendar was fairly quiet.

0:50.3

We had initial jobless claims that came out at 227. Consensus was for 238, so that's better than expected.

0:58.6

You still have continuing claims that are edging a little higher. They actually beat consensus, by the way, but they were still tracking levels on the higher end since we've seen since 2021. So continuing claims are a little

1:13.6

sticky there, but initial job list claims overall fairly good. We're going to have bigger news

1:18.8

on both CPI coming out on Tuesday, and then really we just kick into earnings season, which is

1:24.7

really the focus of what I wrote about today, because I think fundamentals coming

1:28.5

back into focus is frankly just refreshing. We've been talking about geopolitical issues with Israel and

1:34.2

Iran. We've been talking about tariff issues with different political machinations back and forth

1:39.8

between the U.S. and trade policy. We've been talking about what's going to come through Congress on this big, beautiful bill, and all these sorts of things. And what hasn't been spoken about as much is just, hey, what are earnings, where are markets trading, what does sentiment look like, and how our earnings are going to come out here going forward, and what's guidance going to be for Q3 and to Q4? Those are the things that are more important to me. They just haven't been front and center, so it's nice to see them come back here. I mean, we've got basically markets at all-time highs. We didn't close at the highest for the day, but we were pretty darn close to them. And what we've seen really is volatility just come all the way back down to levels that are quite calm, call it 16 on the VIX,

2:19.3

is a pretty good market usually, volatility meaning pretty low. But you still have extreme bullish

2:25.8

sentiment in both the metals like gold and silver and shockingly. And I think that those that

2:32.0

follow those precious metals, especially those that have owned them for the last 10, 15 or 20 years that have been patient are still very positive on them.

2:40.6

But they've traded off the highs by quite a bit.

2:43.6

The bearishness on the U.S. dollar is at all-time highs, essentially.

2:48.5

And I think all those things are a little overdone.

...

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