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The Dividend Cafe

Wednesday - July 15, 2026

The Dividend Cafe

The Dividend Cafe - The Bahnsen Group

Retirement Planning, Wealth Management, Investing, Business, Dividend Growth Investing, Estate Planning, Monetary Policy, Macro Economics

4.9572 Ratings

🗓️ 15 July 2026

⏱️ 8 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

On Wednesday, July 15, Brian Szytel reports modest market gains (Dow +150, S&P 500 +0.4%, Nasdaq +0.6%) amid a positive early Q2 earnings tone, though Middle East tensions temper sentiment and momentum tech (semis and software) has been pressured. He highlights notable strength in financials, citing rising lending, M&A, and capital markets activity, with investment banking up about 30%, capital markets up over 15%, and financial earnings up over 6%, viewing this as a forward-looking sign of economic confidence. The day’s key news was a second straight cooler-than-expected inflation report: PPI fell 0.3% vs flat expected and core rose 0.2% vs 0.4% expected, implying a favorable PCE read. He discusses potential market impacts if Strait of Hormuz disruption persisted (higher oil, inflation, rates; pressure on long-duration assets; benefits to U.S. production), while noting futures imply ~$75 oil in a year, and adds a strong Empire State manufacturing print (15.6 vs 8.4 expected).

00:00 Market Close Recap

00:23 Earnings Season Pulse

01:00 Financials Lead Strength

02:26 Cooler Inflation Data

03:40 Hormuz Risk Scenario

05:15 Futures Reality Check

05:28 Manufacturing Beat Wrap

05:57 Final Sign Off

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com

TheBahnsenGroup.com

Transcript

Click on a timestamp to play from that location

0:00.0

Welcome to the Dividing Cafe weekly market commentary focused on dividends in your portfolio and dividends in your understanding of economic life.

0:11.8

Good evening and welcome back to Dividend Cafe. This is Brian Saitel, your host here this midweek edition on Wednesday, July 15th.

0:22.6

Positive day overall in markets modestly, we had the Dow close up 150 points.

0:28.6

S&P was up almost 4 tenths of a percent. NASDAQ was up 6 tenths of a percent.

0:33.6

So positive in stocks. We had some continued positive earnings of the undertone. We're now about

0:39.5

5, 6% into reporting season in Q2 on the SMP 500, tilted towards positive bias. And so the underlying

0:47.2

tone in the markets is to the upside. You still have this ongoing back and forth in the Middle

0:52.4

East, and that is continuing to put

0:54.4

some a lid a little bit on some animal spirits in markets, but nonetheless, the backdrop

0:58.8

remains fairly positive. As we've written about, a lot of the momentum names have come off,

1:04.5

including the semiconductors. They continue to be under a lot of pressure, software names,

1:08.6

also the same of the last month or so. But what I wanted to talk a

1:12.4

little bit about just because we are into earnings season here is the strength we've seen in the

1:16.8

financials. I always love seeing this because when you've got strong financials, it's really

1:21.4

hard to have a real weak or deteriorating economy underlying those financials. Lending and bank activity and M&A all being up big numbers.

1:30.6

Investment banking so far in these big banks that have reported has been up 30%.

1:35.4

Capital market activity just in general is up over 15%.

1:39.3

So earnings on those financials are up over 6%.

1:42.4

And those are all positive things. And if you remember

1:45.3

during the zero interest rate period, ZERP in 21, you had this huge explosion in M&A transactions

1:52.4

because they all of a sudden all penciled. They're leveraged buyouts, a lot of them. So you can borrow

1:57.1

at 1%. All of a sudden, the numbers make sense. You had this huge boom.

...

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