Thursday - July 16, 2026
The Dividend Cafe
The Dividend Cafe - The Bahnsen Group
4.9 • 572 Ratings
🗓️ 16 July 2026
⏱️ 8 minutes
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Summary
Brian Szytel hosts Dividend Cafe on Thursday, July 16, describing a down market day driven by rotation out of tech and semis, with the Nasdaq down 1.5% versus modest declines in the Dow and S&P, and equal-weighted S&P outperforming cap-weighted by over 160 bps. He highlights ongoing housing weakness: existing home sales at the lowest pace since 1995, affordability pressures with mortgage payments rising from about $1,700 to $3,100 since 2020, and record home equity (~$11T) contributing to illiquidity as most homeowners have rates below current levels. He addresses financials’ July strength, noting they signal economic health but appear fairly to slightly richly valued around 2x price-to-book. Economic data was mostly positive (retail sales +0.2%, Philly Fed 41 vs 13, claims 208 vs 218) while housing data disappointed (builder sentiment down, pending sales -5.6%).
00:00 Market Wrap and Rotation
00:47 Housing Market Stuck
01:23 Affordability and Equity
03:08 Financials Sector Question
04:36 Economic Data Rundown
05:12 Housing Data Misses
05:37 Closing Thoughts
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Welcome to the Dividing Cafe weekly market commentary focused on dividends in your portfolio and dividends in your understanding of economic life. |
| 0:12.2 | Welcome to Dividend Cafe. This is Brian Sightel with you this evening, your host here on Thursday, July the 16th, and a bit of a down day overall in the stock market across the board. |
| 0:26.0 | And it was one of those continued rotation days where you just saw bigger selloff in tech and semis and things that are related to the NASDAQ more than the other indices. |
| 0:35.0 | The Dow is only down on the day about 105 points. S&P was only down |
| 0:40.8 | about half of a percent, but the NASDAQ was down one and a half percent. Bigger sell off in tech, |
| 0:46.2 | and the equal weight S&P outperformed the cap-weighted S&P by over 160 basis points. So that's a |
| 0:52.0 | huge delta, one of the larger ones that I can actually remember. |
| 0:55.8 | But there was a whole lot of economic data out on the day, and I'll go through all of that |
| 0:59.2 | with you a little bit. I did want to shift gears and talk a little bit more about housing just |
| 1:04.2 | for a second, because out of all these numbers, and today there was four pieces of news that came out. |
| 1:10.3 | Two of them were housing related and both of those |
| 1:12.4 | were negative, but it isn't just that. This has been ongoing now for many months. And we're seeing |
| 1:16.4 | this sort of housing market just remains stuck. We're actually, if you look at existing home sales, |
| 1:22.2 | they're running at their lowest pace. It's like graduated high school, which was 1995 for anybody that |
| 1:26.9 | cares. But that's a long period of time. |
| 1:29.3 | You can think about what the population has done since then. |
| 1:32.3 | It's massively expanded. |
| 1:33.3 | And there's just no sales going on right now. |
| 1:36.3 | And one of the reasons is simply affordability. |
| 1:38.3 | Mortgage payments are higher. |
| 1:40.3 | They've gone up from 1700 to about 3,100 just since 2020. |
| 1:45.6 | That's a big, huge difference. |
... |
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