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The Dividend Cafe

Tuesday - July 14, 2026

The Dividend Cafe

The Dividend Cafe - The Bahnsen Group

Retirement Planning, Wealth Management, Investing, Business, Dividend Growth Investing, Estate Planning, Monetary Policy, Macro Economics

4.9572 Ratings

🗓️ 14 July 2026

⏱️ 9 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Brian Szytel recaps a mixed but positive market day with the Dow up about 45 points, the S&P 500 up 0.4%, and the Nasdaq up just under 1%, helped by a broad financial-sector rally despite somewhat mixed large-bank earnings. Oil rose with increased Middle East tensions and volatility around the Strait of Hormuz. The main story was a better-than-expected CPI report: headline CPI fell 0.4% versus expectations for -0.1%, and core CPI was essentially flat (-0.02%) versus a forecast of +0.2%, bringing year-over-year core to 2.6% and pushing the 10-year yield down about 3 bps to 4.58%, with Fed futures repricing to lower odds of hikes. He notes one print isn’t a trend, highlights a stronger NFIB Small Business Optimism Index, and explains why deflation is worse than modest inflation, citing Japan’s long period of minimal growth.

00:00 Market Wrap and Earnings

00:45 Oil Jitters Middle East

01:01 CPI Surprise and Rates

02:39 Fed Talk and Futures

04:12 Small Business Optimism

04:26 Inflation Versus Deflation

05:35 Japanification Case Study

06:34 Wrap Up and Sign Off

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com

TheBahnsenGroup.com

Transcript

Click on a timestamp to play from that location

0:00.0

Welcome to the Dividend Cafe weekly market commentary focused on dividends in your portfolio and dividends in your understanding of economic life.

0:12.1

Welcome back into Dividend Cafe. This is Brian Saitel here, your midweek host on Tuesday, July the 14th, on somewhat of a mixed day, although biases to the

0:23.5

upside. We actually close positive. Dow is up about 45 points, S&P, up about four-tenths, and NASDAQ

0:30.7

up just under a percent, about 95 basis points on the day. So positive across the board,

0:36.6

you did have some different earnings come out,

0:38.2

particularly in some of the large banks and the financials. Largely, they were good. Most of that

0:43.2

sector was really up today, so there was a financial sector rally pretty much across the board. Some of the

0:48.7

bank earnings were a little mixed, so I wouldn't call them knocking it out of the park necessarily,

0:53.2

but stocks were up and that

0:55.1

tells you enough of what the markets thought about it.

0:57.9

Other than that, we had increase in kinetic energy back and forth in Middle East last

1:03.4

night.

1:04.4

And so oil was up a little bit on the day.

1:06.4

You had WTI up a little under 2%, and also some just rise in volatility around the back and forth

1:12.6

around the Strait of Hormuz.

1:14.1

That said, what the big news really was a drop in CPI on core.

1:19.0

This is the most important part of it, because we know headline includes food and energy,

1:24.3

and we know energy has been quite volatile since February when this thing started

1:28.9

in the Middle East. So when you move that out, what we saw last month was a rise in in core,

1:34.5

and that's not a good thing as far as where Fed funds has to go. This time around, we got headline

1:39.8

that actually moved 0.4% lower on the month. So it was a decline. That was better than expected

1:46.1

for a decline of 0.1%, which is what consensus had. Obviously, that was much better than the

...

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