Tuesday - July 14, 2026
The Dividend Cafe
The Dividend Cafe - The Bahnsen Group
4.9 • 572 Ratings
🗓️ 14 July 2026
⏱️ 9 minutes
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Summary
Brian Szytel recaps a mixed but positive market day with the Dow up about 45 points, the S&P 500 up 0.4%, and the Nasdaq up just under 1%, helped by a broad financial-sector rally despite somewhat mixed large-bank earnings. Oil rose with increased Middle East tensions and volatility around the Strait of Hormuz. The main story was a better-than-expected CPI report: headline CPI fell 0.4% versus expectations for -0.1%, and core CPI was essentially flat (-0.02%) versus a forecast of +0.2%, bringing year-over-year core to 2.6% and pushing the 10-year yield down about 3 bps to 4.58%, with Fed futures repricing to lower odds of hikes. He notes one print isn’t a trend, highlights a stronger NFIB Small Business Optimism Index, and explains why deflation is worse than modest inflation, citing Japan’s long period of minimal growth.
00:00 Market Wrap and Earnings
00:45 Oil Jitters Middle East
01:01 CPI Surprise and Rates
02:39 Fed Talk and Futures
04:12 Small Business Optimism
04:26 Inflation Versus Deflation
05:35 Japanification Case Study
06:34 Wrap Up and Sign Off
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Welcome to the Dividend Cafe weekly market commentary focused on dividends in your portfolio and dividends in your understanding of economic life. |
| 0:12.1 | Welcome back into Dividend Cafe. This is Brian Saitel here, your midweek host on Tuesday, July the 14th, on somewhat of a mixed day, although biases to the |
| 0:23.5 | upside. We actually close positive. Dow is up about 45 points, S&P, up about four-tenths, and NASDAQ |
| 0:30.7 | up just under a percent, about 95 basis points on the day. So positive across the board, |
| 0:36.6 | you did have some different earnings come out, |
| 0:38.2 | particularly in some of the large banks and the financials. Largely, they were good. Most of that |
| 0:43.2 | sector was really up today, so there was a financial sector rally pretty much across the board. Some of the |
| 0:48.7 | bank earnings were a little mixed, so I wouldn't call them knocking it out of the park necessarily, |
| 0:53.2 | but stocks were up and that |
| 0:55.1 | tells you enough of what the markets thought about it. |
| 0:57.9 | Other than that, we had increase in kinetic energy back and forth in Middle East last |
| 1:03.4 | night. |
| 1:04.4 | And so oil was up a little bit on the day. |
| 1:06.4 | You had WTI up a little under 2%, and also some just rise in volatility around the back and forth |
| 1:12.6 | around the Strait of Hormuz. |
| 1:14.1 | That said, what the big news really was a drop in CPI on core. |
| 1:19.0 | This is the most important part of it, because we know headline includes food and energy, |
| 1:24.3 | and we know energy has been quite volatile since February when this thing started |
| 1:28.9 | in the Middle East. So when you move that out, what we saw last month was a rise in in core, |
| 1:34.5 | and that's not a good thing as far as where Fed funds has to go. This time around, we got headline |
| 1:39.8 | that actually moved 0.4% lower on the month. So it was a decline. That was better than expected |
| 1:46.1 | for a decline of 0.1%, which is what consensus had. Obviously, that was much better than the |
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