WAR… Huge Impacts On Your Portfolio If You Don't Do This

Money Tree Investing

Money Tree Investing Podcast

Business, Investing

4.6 • 733 Ratings

🗓️ 11 March 2026

⏱️ 51 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

There's war in the middle east and there will be huge impacts on your portfolio! Today we talk about how war-related uncertainty and conflicting economic signals are creating unusual market behavior, making it difficult for investors to interpret short-term movements. Broad market declines across many asset classes can indicate de-leveraging rather than money simply rotating elsewhere, and geopolitical tensions, rising oil prices, weakening job data, and potential stagflation risks are adding pressure to the economy.

While some sector rotation into energy, commodities, and defensive assets is occurring, be wary that wartime conditions disrupt normal market trends, making strategies like "buying the dip" risky. Now is the time for risk management as preserving capital during periods of uncertainty is often more important than trying to time short-term market moves.

We discuss...

How misinformation, AI-generated content, and limited reliable sources make it difficult to understand what is actually happening during geopolitical conflicts.
How negative political messaging often backfires psychologically because the human brain tends to ignore the word "not" and focus on the core concept.
The unusually volatile week in markets, where prices swung sharply day-to-day despite ongoing geopolitical tensions.
Markets do not always react logically to major events like wars, with assets sometimes moving in unexpected directions.
A key explanation for broad market declines was de-leveraging, where leveraged positions are unwound and excess liquidity effectively disappears from the system.
Investors rarely know the full reasons behind short-term market movements because many institutional trades occur behind the scenes.
"Buying the dip" works in bull markets but can lead to significant losses during bear markets or uncertain environments.
During wartime conditions traditional market frameworks often break down, making predictions especially unreliable.
Reduce risk exposure and avoid aggressive trades until geopolitical uncertainty becomes clearer.
Recent economic data show job losses and rising unemployment, which adds pressure to an already fragile economic outlook.
Capital is rotating into defensive areas such as energy, commodities, defense stocks, and gold.
Market rotations are normal in healthy markets but can become distorted when geopolitical shocks occur.
Holding cash can be a strategic decision during uncertain markets rather than a missed opportunity.
How falling interest rates could eventually lower mortgage rates and trigger more activity in the housing market.
Investors should focus on protecting capital and managing downside risk during periods of extreme uncertainty.

Today's Panelists:

Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth
Douglas Heagren | Mergent College Advisors

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For more information, visit the full show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/investors-are-fleeing-into-this-sector-797

Transcript

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0:00.0	Welcome to the Money Tree Investing Podcast. Stock market, wealth, personal finance, value stocks, invest in your life. Hello, Smart Money Tree Podcast listeners. Welcome this week's show. My name's Kirk Chisholm. I'll be your host. And today I'm joining with Doug Higran. Hey, Doug. Greetings, Kirk. Happy Friday to you. I had to check that it's Friday because, you know, sometimes we're on Monday and
0:23.0	occasionally I can't get into my office or my tech to work. So I just have to make sure. Yeah, the last one you were in a hotel somewhere. Yeah. Yeah. It is officially Friday. I had to look as well. It's been a long week. with all the war porn we're getting, I'm getting a little exhausted by trying to keep up with everything.
0:39.9	I will say there's one interesting thing, because I don't know. week with all the war porn we're getting, I'm getting a little exhausted by trying to keep up with
0:38.8	everything. I will say there's one interesting thing because I don't watch major media news.
0:43.3	And I've been trying to teach my kids on how to digest stuff like this. And my son was asking
0:48.1	he's like, what do you watch? What do you listen to to? Find out what's going on? I'm like,
0:51.2	I don't. I basically have my sources that I listen to for other
0:55.5	stuff and they communicate things that are going on. And effectively, that's how I'm finding out.
1:02.0	But there's very little, I think Trump has come out and said two or three things, but otherwise,
1:07.0	not much has been said. How do you know what's true? I've seen a lot of fake videos online. I've seen a lot of fighter jets doing all this cool stuff. I'm like, that's AI. That's not even real. So I find it interesting because you don't really know what's going on unless the government tells you. And even then, you know, like, is it true? It's been an interesting week with the war. I guess the lesson I'd leave everybody with with the war. And I don't want to get too crazy on it today because there's some stuff I want to talk about is the fog of war is real. Like, you need to really slow down the digestion of this. I think initially they said, oh, it'll be over quick. Well, it killed leaders. And then it was two weeks.
1:45.1	Now it's four weeks.
1:59.4	At this point, I don't know if Trump wants to get reelected because if this lasts a month, I'm not sure it's going to fly unless gas prices go under a buck. Maybe people forgive him. But I think for the most part, it's against what everybody voted for. Everybody voted for him for being anti-war and he just went and started the war.
2:00.4	Well, I got good news.
2:19.6	He can't be re-elected, although they're, again, get your tinfoil hat on because he's, you know, the rumor is he was too. Right. Sorry, I meant midterms. I keep saying that. But you know what I found the most funny was prior to, it was like after the election, it was like last, I think it was last summer, when the no king's rally started. I'm in Lexington.
2:20.4	It's filled with, you know, liberal. It was like after the election, it was like last, I think it was last summer when the no kings rally started.
2:19.6	I'm in Lexington. It's filled with, you know, liberal Democrats. And I started to see these signs.
2:24.6	It was like 1776 and like no kings. I'm like, what is this a theatrical production? Like, what is this? And no one was talking about it yet. But I saw all the signs in expectation of this blowing up. And then it kind of blew up. And I was like, this is a non-starter. And it ended up being a non-starter. They had a rally and nobody showed up. And it was like, what are you doing? This is like the worst marketing campaign I've ever seen. The first thought that came to my mind is you're saying no kings. You're basically, when you say no kings, this is actually an interesting lesson for psychology.
2:56.0	If you say no kings, what you're saying is king, because your brain, when marketing, your brain doesn't process no.
3:05.1	So when it said no kings, you're basically saying Trump's a king.
3:08.2	Like the PR message that your brain is getting is Trump's a king, Trump's a king, Trump's a king.
3:13.0	Well, Trump never said that. But all the liberal Democrats are saying that. So they're conditioning
3:18.2	everybody that he's a king. Well, if people like him, they might want a third term, even though he can't technically do it.
	...

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