I'm John Bats with my colleague and friend, Anatole Leven of the Quincy Institute for

Responsible Statecraft.

Quickly Anatole remarks by the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Mr. Milley, in

Europe to the BBC that there are 30 to 45 days left for the counteroffensive before

weather closes in, meaning of third winter and the third year of war, portend.

At this point, the counteroffensive is not said to be successful.

Is that acceptable to Europe for this winter where, again, they're going to be faced with

questions about their economy?

We have two minutes.

I think that the Europeans are becoming increasingly concerned because it's clear that Ukraine is

not going to achieve a decisive victory this year.

Whatever this will lead to an actual full-scale European pushback against America for

peace, I doubt this winter, unless things get really bad.

But what you can see in Europe, most recently in Germany, as a result of the rise of the

extreme right, alternative for Deutschland and deep public unhappiness, is growing unrest

at the economic cost of this war and a progressive deterioration of the political situation.

But how fast that will go is difficult to say at present, but it's certainly something

to watch.

And the third year of war at this point, Kiev has very little to offer, except for continuing

the counteroffensive, despite the fact that it looks like Verdun Jr. is at your expectation

as, well, we wait through the winter and then we're back to the beginning.

It's a groundhog day.

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