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The Dividend Cafe

Tuesday - March 3, 2026

The Dividend Cafe

The Dividend Cafe - The Bahnsen Group

Business, Monetary Policy, Investing, Macro Economics, Estate Planning, Retirement Planning, Dividend Growth Investing, Wealth Management

4.9569 Ratings

🗓️ 3 March 2026

⏱️ 9 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

On Tuesday, March 3, Brian Szytel reports a volatile session where the Dow opened down about 850 points, fell as much as 1,200, and recovered to close down about 400, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq down about 1% and moving more in unison; the 10-year yield rose only 1 bp after being up over 6 bps earlier. Markets reacted to fears around a near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which briefly lifted oil over 9% before closing up 2.8%, and to U.S. assurances of tanker insurance/protection that eased inflation expectations; TIPS breakevens jumped about 20 bps. He notes LNG is cut off to most Middle East countries and export transportation is down 20%, with U.S. gas about 40% cheaper than Europe/Asia. He previews key week data (ADP, PMI/ISM services, Beige Book, claims, productivity, and the employment report) and answers an AI question: U.S. power upgrades are “when, not if” despite regulatory delays and natural-gas advantages, while China faces chip export controls; U.S.–China AI partnership is unlikely due to national security concerns.

00:00 Market Selloff Recap

00:36 Strait Tensions and Oil Spike

02:03 Energy Supply Disruptions

02:27 War Headlines and Market Context

03:16 Inflation Breakevens and TIPS

03:32 Staying Calm in Volatility

04:12 Week Ahead Economic Data

04:52 Ask TBG AI and Energy

05:24 US Power Buildout Outlook

06:33 China Chips and DeepSeek

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com

TheBahnsenGroup.com

Transcript

Click on a timestamp to play from that location

0:00.0

Welcome to the Dividing Cafe weekly market commentary focused on dividends in your portfolio and dividends in your understanding of economic life.

0:10.0

Welcome to Dividend Cafe this Tuesday, March the 3rd.

0:16.0

I'm Brian Saitel, your host for the day on a volatile day overall in the stock market.

0:21.5

We actually opened up down about 850 points on the Dow.

0:25.8

We got down to about 1,200 below fair value midday, but then markets started to react a little better and markets recovered.

0:34.8

We ended up down only 400 points on the Dow in about 1% on the

0:40.3

S&P and about 1% on the NASDAQ. So all three indices much more moving in unison today than what

0:46.7

has been the case recently. The bond market was only up in basis point terms on the 10-year

0:53.0

one basis point. We were actually up over six

0:55.4

basis points and there was follow-through because of what has turned into a closure essentially of

1:00.7

the Strait of Hormuz. And I'll talk about that a little bit more, but that essentially sends

1:05.5

oil prices higher and we saw them close only up 2.8%. But we actually at one point on the day, we're up over

1:12.5

9% because there's such a large amount of oil that goes through there, about 21 million

1:17.8

barrels a day go through there. Forty-five percent of that, for what it's worth, is actually

1:22.4

for China as well. So the issue with some of those tensions are if that gets shut or you get loss of

1:30.0

these tanker boats and these losses of energy supply, China has already said that it wants both

1:35.9

sides to make sure that doesn't happen. If that ends up happening, the worst thing would be

1:40.3

China's involvement to try to get things reopened. And we haven't heard that or anything,

1:44.9

but that's the fears that go through markets early in the morning and overnight gets priced in,

1:49.6

and then things calm down a little bit throughout the trading day. What did happen is the U.S.

1:53.6

assured towards that same period of time that they would either beef up insurances for those tankers,

1:59.3

which have to get that war insurance to go through the

...

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