Tuesday - March 3, 2026
The Dividend Cafe
The Dividend Cafe - The Bahnsen Group
4.9 • 569 Ratings
🗓️ 3 March 2026
⏱️ 9 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
On Tuesday, March 3, Brian Szytel reports a volatile session where the Dow opened down about 850 points, fell as much as 1,200, and recovered to close down about 400, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq down about 1% and moving more in unison; the 10-year yield rose only 1 bp after being up over 6 bps earlier. Markets reacted to fears around a near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which briefly lifted oil over 9% before closing up 2.8%, and to U.S. assurances of tanker insurance/protection that eased inflation expectations; TIPS breakevens jumped about 20 bps. He notes LNG is cut off to most Middle East countries and export transportation is down 20%, with U.S. gas about 40% cheaper than Europe/Asia. He previews key week data (ADP, PMI/ISM services, Beige Book, claims, productivity, and the employment report) and answers an AI question: U.S. power upgrades are “when, not if” despite regulatory delays and natural-gas advantages, while China faces chip export controls; U.S.–China AI partnership is unlikely due to national security concerns.
00:00 Market Selloff Recap
00:36 Strait Tensions and Oil Spike
02:03 Energy Supply Disruptions
02:27 War Headlines and Market Context
03:16 Inflation Breakevens and TIPS
03:32 Staying Calm in Volatility
04:12 Week Ahead Economic Data
04:52 Ask TBG AI and Energy
05:24 US Power Buildout Outlook
06:33 China Chips and DeepSeek
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Welcome to the Dividing Cafe weekly market commentary focused on dividends in your portfolio and dividends in your understanding of economic life. |
| 0:10.0 | Welcome to Dividend Cafe this Tuesday, March the 3rd. |
| 0:16.0 | I'm Brian Saitel, your host for the day on a volatile day overall in the stock market. |
| 0:21.5 | We actually opened up down about 850 points on the Dow. |
| 0:25.8 | We got down to about 1,200 below fair value midday, but then markets started to react a little better and markets recovered. |
| 0:34.8 | We ended up down only 400 points on the Dow in about 1% on the |
| 0:40.3 | S&P and about 1% on the NASDAQ. So all three indices much more moving in unison today than what |
| 0:46.7 | has been the case recently. The bond market was only up in basis point terms on the 10-year |
| 0:53.0 | one basis point. We were actually up over six |
| 0:55.4 | basis points and there was follow-through because of what has turned into a closure essentially of |
| 1:00.7 | the Strait of Hormuz. And I'll talk about that a little bit more, but that essentially sends |
| 1:05.5 | oil prices higher and we saw them close only up 2.8%. But we actually at one point on the day, we're up over |
| 1:12.5 | 9% because there's such a large amount of oil that goes through there, about 21 million |
| 1:17.8 | barrels a day go through there. Forty-five percent of that, for what it's worth, is actually |
| 1:22.4 | for China as well. So the issue with some of those tensions are if that gets shut or you get loss of |
| 1:30.0 | these tanker boats and these losses of energy supply, China has already said that it wants both |
| 1:35.9 | sides to make sure that doesn't happen. If that ends up happening, the worst thing would be |
| 1:40.3 | China's involvement to try to get things reopened. And we haven't heard that or anything, |
| 1:44.9 | but that's the fears that go through markets early in the morning and overnight gets priced in, |
| 1:49.6 | and then things calm down a little bit throughout the trading day. What did happen is the U.S. |
| 1:53.6 | assured towards that same period of time that they would either beef up insurances for those tankers, |
| 1:59.3 | which have to get that war insurance to go through the |
... |
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