Monday - March 2, 2026
The Dividend Cafe
The Dividend Cafe - The Bahnsen Group
4.9 • 569 Ratings
🗓️ 2 March 2026
⏱️ 14 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3NdZ2Sm
In a Monday Dividend Cafe recorded before the market close, David Bahnsen discusses the market and energy implications of weekend U.S. military actions involving Iran, emphasizing the show is not for strategic or editorial war analysis. He notes futures opened down about 500 points but equities recovered to roughly flat, while oil rose about 6–9% to around $70 and U.S. LNG-related names moved on the prospect of greater export demand if Middle Eastern supply is disrupted. He highlights the absence of a traditional “flight to safety,” with Treasury yields higher across the curve (10-year up about 9 bps, 2-year up about 11 bps) and defensives lagging while energy and technology led. Bahnsen argues outcomes hinge on conflict duration, but elevated valuations and broader uncertainties (AI, private credit, tariffs, courts) raise risk and volatility.
00:00 Monday Market Setup
00:51 What This Show Covers
02:21 Futures Drop Then Recover
03:26 Oil Moves And LNG Angle
04:50 Conflict Duration Scenarios
06:47 Why Markets Stay Calm
08:16 Bonds And Sector Signals
10:09 Valuations And Uncertainty
11:59 Closing Thoughts And Prayer
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com
Transcript
Click on a timestamp to play from that location
| 0:00.0 | Welcome to the Dividing Cafe, weekly market commentary focused on dividends in your portfolio and dividends in your understanding of economic life. |
| 0:12.1 | Hello and welcome to the Monday edition of the Dividend Cafe where there is a lot going on. |
| 0:18.0 | For one thing, I'm actually recording before the market has closed today, |
| 0:23.1 | which I never like doing, but because of the schedule of things after the market closes, |
| 0:28.6 | the written dividend cafe and our numbers and everything at the daily recap in your inbox |
| 0:33.2 | will be the final closing numbers. But it's just on the podcast and video here right now, I'm recording with a couple |
| 0:40.5 | hours to go in the trading day. |
| 0:42.9 | And that's a good thing because there has already been quite a bit of movement within |
| 0:47.9 | the day. |
| 0:48.4 | And I want to be able to address market relevance, market sensitivity around the Iran military efforts and endeavors over the weekend. |
| 0:59.4 | Obviously, that being the biggest story in the world right now. |
| 1:03.7 | I want to first just make abundantly clear that I have some things to say about the relevance of the weekend's events to the energy sector, |
| 1:13.5 | to markets, to the economy. |
| 1:15.9 | I'm going to address these things quickly and particularly talk about what we're seeing already here today. |
| 1:20.9 | But if one is looking for more strategic or military analysis, then Dividy Cafe is clearly not the best place for that. |
| 1:29.6 | And hopefully you have various sources for you think you can get good coverage on that subject. |
| 1:34.3 | And I would add, too, that if you're looking for editorial coverage, the do's and don'ts, |
| 1:39.8 | and they shouldn't have done something or they should have done something, most of us probably have opinions on the propriety of a lot of these things. |
| 1:49.2 | But again, I talk all the time about what I believe is right or not right in the economic |
| 1:55.3 | sphere in Dividing Cafe because it's directly relevant to I don't know how to talk about |
| 2:00.5 | economics without sharing my |
| 2:02.1 | opinion on matters of economic policy. On something like this, I'm just not going to do it here |
... |
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