Wednesday - March 4, 2026
The Dividend Cafe
The Dividend Cafe - The Bahnsen Group
4.9 • 569 Ratings
🗓️ 4 March 2026
⏱️ 9 minutes
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Summary
Brian Szytel recaps a rebound day in markets with broad gains (Dow +238, S&P +0.8%, Nasdaq +1.3%) amid headline-driven volatility tied to Iran and renewed tariff discussion. He notes Secretary Bessent’s comments on Section 122 potentially moving tariffs from 10% to 15%, which would still mean $65–$70B less in taxes than under IEPA, helping especially smaller and mid-sized businesses. Key market watchpoints are oil and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and bond yields, which rose with higher energy and inflation expectations rather than signaling a flight to safety; the 10-year is around 4.07%. He reiterates a midterm outlook of Democrats taking the House and Republicans holding the Senate. Economic data were strong, led by ISM services at 56.1, alongside services PMI at 51.7 and ADP private payrolls at 63K. He also addresses software stocks, viewing AI-driven selloffs as selective opportunity with potential margin benefits.
00:00 Market Rebound Recap
00:42 Tariffs Back in Focus
01:45 Iran Risks and Oil
02:41 Volatility and Bond Yields
03:49 Midterm Politics Update
04:27 Economic Data Rundown
05:33 AI and Software Stocks
06:47 Wrap Up and Tomorrow
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Welcome to the Dividend Cafe weekly market commentary focused on dividends in your portfolio and dividends in your understanding of economic life. |
| 0:12.3 | Welcome to Dividend Cafe. This is your host, Brian Seitel, with you here on a rebound day in markets, which was nice to see. We had across the board green numbers here on the stock indices. The Dow ended up closing up 238 points. S&P was up 8 tenths of a percent. Nasdaq was up 1.3%. So overnight, we had futures oscillate. We actually had futures positive as we headed into the open, |
| 0:40.5 | but they were really back and forth between up 100 and down 100, pretty dramatic. And some of that |
| 0:45.8 | volatility, obviously, is around Iran war and changes in the Strait of Hormuz and some of these big |
| 0:51.8 | ticket items that we were seeing in headlines these days. |
| 0:55.1 | But the other one was around tariffs again. |
| 0:57.4 | So Secretary Bessent was on C&BC talking about Section 122 being able to move current tariffs |
| 1:04.3 | from 10% to 15%. |
| 1:05.8 | We always knew this was a possibility. |
| 1:07.8 | Again, this isn't a permanent fix. |
| 1:09.2 | And it doesn't get the tariff numbers |
| 1:12.1 | in percentage terms back to what they had with IEPA before it was ruled illegal and non-constitutional, |
| 1:18.5 | but it does take that tax on importers back from 10% to 15. But either way, you're end up with |
| 1:25.9 | something around $65 to $70 billion less in taxes for those |
| 1:29.6 | importers compared to what IEPA was. |
| 1:31.7 | So it's still stimulative for American businesses and particularly the smaller and mid-sized |
| 1:37.2 | companies that are going to be more affected by these things. |
| 1:40.3 | And if people that own these businesses, tariffs have been a really big deal because they just don't have the margin to absorb 10, 15, 20, 25% increases on some of these things. |
| 1:50.0 | So I suppose in most ways it's a good thing. |
| 1:52.0 | Markets have been favorable. |
| 1:53.4 | Part of the reason separate from Iran is because of this, and that's what's going on. |
| 1:57.7 | The situation in Iran is a market moving event. |
... |
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