THINKING AHEAD: How to Make Life’s Big Decisions
The Next Big Idea
Next Big Idea Club
4.4 • 1.3K Ratings
🗓️ 3 June 2020
⏱️ 45 minutes
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| 0:15.9 | It's a hot day in August 2010. A CIA asset is tailing a white Suzuki jeep out of the Peshawar Valley and into the parched hills of Northeast Pakistan. Under normal circumstances he would have given up a long |
| 0:21.7 | time ago, but today he's under orders to follow |
| 0:24.8 | the Suzuki to the end of the earth unless he runs out of gas first. The analyst |
| 0:31.6 | back at headquarters are obsessed with the Suzuki's driver, a courier named Al-Qaeda. |
| 0:37.0 | They know he's got close ties to the terrorist network Al-Qaeda, |
| 0:41.0 | and they think he might eventually point them to the network's founder |
| 0:43.4 | Osama bin Laden. Finally on the outskirts of the city of Abadabad the Suzuki |
| 0:50.1 | quits the main road and heads down a rutted dirt track. It comes to a stop at a compound surrounded |
| 0:56.2 | by 15 foot high white concrete walls. What's Alowati doing here? |
| 1:03.0 | Could bin Laden be inside? |
| 1:05.0 | As it happens, that reconnaissance mission is the first step in a nine-month journey that will lead to the famous raid by Seal Team Six that ends in |
| 1:14.6 | bin Laden's death and much of that journey will take place in the imagination. |
| 1:21.0 | Because to make the decisions they need to make, the analysts have to see things they can't actually see both now and in the future. |
| 1:29.0 | For months, they gather information from experts, from aerial photos photos from assets on the ground. |
| 1:34.6 | They look at the smallest details to try to define what they mean. |
| 1:38.0 | Why do the people in the compound burn their trash instead of having it collected? |
| 1:41.7 | Why don't they have a landline or internet? |
| 1:43.7 | Who is the tall man who paces each day |
| 1:46.1 | under a tarpaulin? |
| 1:48.2 | When they're reasonably sure that the man has been laden, |
| 1:51.3 | they begin to plan how to capture or kill him. They invite ideas |
| 1:54.9 | from their team, no matter how outlandish. They could throw stink bombs over the wall |
... |
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