There's no question that the Shah leaving Iran is a tragedy, a personal tragedy for him.

A tragedy for the people of Iran who now are suffering, repression much greater than they had before,

who have 4 million at least unemployed and runaway inflation under a government that is not really a government,

it's really a mob.

All these things that happened, but also it was, in addition to being a personal tragedy

for the Shah, a tragedy for the people of Iran, it was certainly a tragedy for what we call the West,

because what was leadership and stability in that part of the world is now replaced by instability.

It's Tuesday, January 13, 2026, and welcome back to Goodfellows, a Hoover Institution broadcast examining history,

economics, and geopolitics. I'm Bill Whalen. I'm a distinguished policy fellow here at the

Hoover Institution. I'll be moderating a conversation today, featuring three of my colleagues

we like to call the Goodfell. I'm referring, of course, to the historian Sir Neil Ferguson,

economist John Cochran, and former Presidential National Security Advisor, Lieutenant General H.R. McMaster, Neil John, economist John Cochran and former presidential national security

advisor, Lieutenant General, HR McMaster. Neil John and HR are all Hoover senior fellows.

So gentlemen, long time no see. I'm joking because we did a show just last week, which is

sort of a short stint for good fellows. We're back again and let's pick up where we left off

and I want to begin with your thoughts on what is going to happen in Iran. As I mentioned, we're recording this on Tuesday

the 13th. What is going on right now, the regime seems to be on a precipice. Iran has crossed the line

that Donald Trump said, saying that the U.S. will strike if the protests

turned violent, the president this morning saying, and I quote, help is on the way.

Neil, I'll leave it to you. Donald Trump's help is on the way. What is help?

It's a good question because it's actually harder than it looks to achieve a counter-revolution, which is what this is.

I think a lot of bad analogies are being thrown around as if this is a revolution that's different

...