The Trump hokey cokey is back - what happens to world trade now?

The Briefing Room

BBC

News, News Commentary

4.8 • 731 Ratings

🗓️ 10 July 2025

⏱️ 29 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

The Trump hokey cokey is back. Tariffs on, tariffs reduced - now they’re heading back up again. It really got going on April 2nd- President Trump’s so-called “Liberation Day” - when he announced a swathe of punitive tariffs on trading partners across the world. The markets tanked and then there was a pause. Countries had 90 days to strike a trade deal - 90 deals in 90 days - we were told. But there weren’t. There were only 2. The deadline was this week but now it’s next month. But in the past few days the White House has been sending out a flurry of letters with higher tariffs for those without a deal - which is almost everyone. David Aaronovitch asks his guests just what is going on, what’s happening to world trade and what happens next?

Guests: Soumaya Keynes, Economics Columnist The Financial Times Meredith Crowley, Professor of Economics, University of Cambridge Justin Wolfers, Professor of Economics and Public Professor of Economics and Public Policy, University of Michigan Philip Coggan, author, The Economic Consequences of Mr Trump: What the Trade War Means for the World

Presenter: David Aaronovitch Producers: Caroline Bayley, Sally Abrahams, Kirsteen Knight Production co-ordinator: Maria Ogundele Sound engineer: Neil Churchill and David Crackles Editor: Richard Vadon

Transcript

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0:00.0	BBC Sounds, Music, Radio, Podcasts.
0:09.0	What seems like long, long ago, there was Liberation Day when the President of America announced all the trade tariffs he was going to impose on goods from other countries.
0:20.3	Then, when the markets tanked, he unannounced most of them, saying there would be a 90-day pause for negotiation.
0:27.6	In those 90 days, there would be 90 deals.
0:31.6	That 90 days ended with two deals, almost, including hours, so the deadline was promptly extended to next month.
0:41.2	And in the past few days, the White House has been sending out a flurry of letters, once again,
0:45.5	threatening higher tariffs for those without a deal, which is almost everyone.
0:50.5	On Wednesday night, Trump's Brazilian letter threatened a 50% tariff on that country's goods,
0:56.5	in part because he doesn't like the fact that its former Trump-friendly president is on trial.
1:01.6	And so, the great Trump trade hokey-cokey, in-out, in-out, shake it all about, carries on.
1:08.3	But what has been the effect on world trade so far? How have other countries responded?
1:13.6	Have there been any winners from all this or just losers? And what next?
1:18.6	Step into the briefing room and if you don't immediately step out again, together we'll find out.
1:33.2	First, let's recap and remind ourselves how this started earlier this year.
1:39.4	The briefing rooms Caroline Bailey spoke to Sumaya Keynes, Economics columnist at the Financial Times.
1:40.7	Summaia Keynes, remind us how Trump's tariff hokey-cockey, as we've been calling it, started.
1:46.5	Does this go back to his first term?
1:49.1	In his first term, he certainly showed a fondness for tariffs,
1:53.0	but actually, if you look at what happened, it was fairly narrow in its kind of application.
1:59.1	So in his first term, you you had tariffs on steel, aluminium,
2:02.5	and then you obviously had massive tariff increases on China. What we've seen in his second term,
2:08.2	though, is that things have escalated. So we've got a much broader application of these tariffs.
	...

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