The State of the Housing Market with Ivy Zelman

On The Tape

RiskReversal Media

News, Business, Investing, Business News

4.6 • 757 Ratings

🗓️ 15 January 2024

⏱️ 25 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

On this episode of “On The Tape,” Danny Moses is joined by Ivy Zelman of Zelman & Associates, who called the housing bust in 2008, for a conversation about the current state of the housing market. Timecode Topics: Intro (0:00) How the pandemic changed the housing market (3:00) Price inflation (7:00) Mortgage rates & how fluctuating interest rates impact the housing sector (10:30) Housing inventories (15:00) Quantitative easing (18:35) The rental market (20:10) Ivy’s top ideas (25:15) Ivy Zelman’s Stock Disclosures: BZH, CCS, HOV, KBH, LEN, MDC, MHO, MTH, PMH, TOL & TMHC r Stock Ownership: Analyst: No Analyst’s Family: No Analyst’s Firm: No Investment Banking Client: No Other Conflicts: Yes – Zelman has received compensation for products or services other than investment banking services. DFH: Stock Ownership: Analyst: No Analyst’s Family: No Analyst’s Firm: No Investment Banking Client: Yes Other Conflicts: Yes – Zelman has received compensation for products or services other than investment banking services. — Subscribe to our newsletter: https://riskreversalmedia.beehiiv.com/subscribe — About the Show: On The Tape is a weekly podcast with CNBC Fast Money’s Guy Adami, Dan Nathan and Danny Moses. They’re offering takes on the biggest market-moving headlines of the week, trade ideas, in-depth analysis, tips and advice. Each episode, they are joined by prominent Wall Street participants to help viewers make smarter investment decisions. Bear market, bull market, recession, inflation or deflation… we’re here to help guide your portfolio into the green. Risk Reversal brings you years of experience from former Wall Street insiders trading stocks to experts in the commodity market. — Check out our show notes here See what adding futures can do for you at cmegroup.com/onthetape. — Shoot us an email at [email protected] with any feedback, suggestions, or questions for us to answer on the pod and follow us @OnTheTapePod on Twitter or @riskreversalmedia on Threads — We’re on social: Follow @GuyAdami on Twitter Follow Danny Moses @DMoses34 on Twitter Follow Liz Young @LizYoungStrat on Twitter Follow us on Instagram @RiskReversalMedia Subscribe to our YouTube page The financial opinions expressed in Risk Reversal content are for information purposes only. The opinions expressed by the hosts and participants are not an attempt to influence specific trading behavior, investments, or strategies. Past performance does not necessarily predict future outcomes. No specific results or profits are assured when relying on Risk Reversal. Before making any investment or trade, evaluate its suitability for your circumstances and consider consulting your own financial or investment advisor. The financial products discussed in Risk Reversal carry a high level of risk and may not be appropriate for many investors. If you have uncertainties, it's advisable to seek professional advice. Remember that trading involves a risk to your capital, so only invest money that you can afford to lose. Derivatives are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of losing more than the amount originally deposited and any profit you might have made. This communication is not a recommendation or offer to buy, sell or retain any specific investment or service.

Transcript

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0:00.0	Welcome to On the Tape. I am Danny Moses. We are fortunate to have Ivy Zellman, founder of Zellman and
0:07.2	associates, join us today to talk about all things housing. Before I let me just tell you that I met
0:13.5	Ivy. Ivy, it's almost been 20 years since we've known each other. Your days at Credit
0:17.3	Swiss. And I'm not understating the fact that during that time period there,
0:21.7	you truly helped us, when I say Steve Ives and myself, Porter, Collins, Vincent Daniel,
0:26.5	guide us through the financial crisis or leading up to the financial crisis. And it was your
0:31.5	research that truly helped shape this, how we thought about the markets in general and what was
0:35.7	happening within housing, which was obviously
0:37.5	the entire key to the whole GFC that went on. So if I don't have this correct, tell me, but you were
0:43.2	at Solomon before you're at Credit Suisse. You left Credit Swift smartly in 2007, knowing that they
0:48.6	probably weren't going to do so well and you could branch it on your own. And if you're still
0:51.5	bearish on Wall Street, we know how that works out in terms of comp. And you started Zellman Associates in late 2007. And to fast forward in 2021,
0:59.9	you sold your business, which is still Zellman Associates and operating to Walker and Dunlop.
1:04.3	We can talk about that too. But you guys do banking. You do research. You do advising.
1:09.0	You do everything within housing and home centers and
1:11.7	building supply and all kinds of things. So with that, I want to maybe turn it over to you and tell me
1:17.6	if I got anything wrong there and then maybe describe exactly what you're up to now. If I missed
1:21.9	anything, let me know, Ivy. First, thank you so much. It's really an honor to be on your show.
1:26.7	It's fun to see you and no, you didn't get anything wrong, but I have to go back to the days hanging out with my buddies at Front Point. You kept me sane because there was many accounts that I talked to and clients were just not at all willing to hear anything bearer. So there was moments without you guys. I don't know that I would have survived and a few other clients like yourself.
1:44.5	But those were fun days hanging out with you guys.
1:46.7	Well, it's interesting.
1:47.2	This is an incredible time period again for home builders in general and just the sector.
	...

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