RiskReversal Pod

Dan Nathan welcomes Notable Capital partner Jeff Richards to discuss how public-market concentration and multiple expansion in mega-cap tech are influencing private-market valuations. Richards explains Notable’s evolution from GGV Capital and its investments across AI and software, then argues that AI adoption is accelerating rapidly, citing publicly reported Anthropic run-rate growth and broad “token path” benefits for infrastructure and select software. He highlights cybersecurity as a key beneficiary as agents increase enterprise risk and could drive continued growth for leaders like CrowdStrike and Palo Alto, while noting stretched valuations and advising patience for pullbacks. The conversation covers Google’s equity raise and Berkshire’s participation, Microsoft’s questions beyond Azure, and why Richards recently bought Meta. They address enterprise “sticker shock” for AI usage, the shift to measuring output, SaaS durability vs. internal builds at startups, talent-driven M&A, rising VC interest in robotics, and potential IPO demand for SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI amid signs of frothy market behavior. —FOLLOW USYouTube: @RiskReversalMediaInstagram: @riskreversalmediaTwitter: @RiskReversalLinkedIn: RiskReversal Media

Transcribed - Published: 3 June 2026

Dan Nathan and Guy Adami open with promotion of their new interview series Standing Table (episodes with Anthony Scaramucci, Rick Heitzmann, and SoFi’s Liz Thomas) and note a recent RiskReversal conversation with Dan Niles about investing in a market bubble. They discuss eased geopolitical rhetoric heading into Memorial Day, crude around $88, lower yields, and the S&P 500 at all-time highs, while warning that valuation measures (Buffett indicator, CAPE) and consumer stress signals (high auto payments, elevated gas/insurance costs, rising credit card delinquencies) are flashing red. They review sharp pullbacks in Costco and Walmart as valuation-driven despite decent quarters, then turn to a rebound and potential rotation into software (IGV) and cybersecurity. They highlight rising AI token consumption pricing, “token maxing,” and reports that Amazon, Microsoft, and Uber are pulling back after blowing through AI budgets, framing it as an IPO-era monetization issue. They close on Dell’s blowout AI server results and parabolic stock move, cautioning about margins, valuation, and broader crash risk, referencing Andrew Ross Sorkin’s comments on the inevitability of future market crashes. —FOLLOW USYouTube: @RiskReversalMediaInstagram: @riskreversalmediaTwitter: @RiskReversalLinkedIn: RiskReversal Media

Transcribed - Published: 1 June 2026

Dan Nathan hosts Dan Niles of Niles Investment Management on the Risk Reversal podcast to discuss macro conditions, AI-driven market leadership, and lessons from prior tech cycles. Niles compares the current AI build-out to 1997–1998’s internet infrastructure boom, arguing recent macro scares (tariffs, Iran/oil) created buying opportunities and that a bubble can persist, with further gains likely before a potential 30–50% drawdown next year. He cites a January 30 “agentic AI” step-change increasing token/compute demand, supporting strong CapEx and earnings growth, and notes Nvidia’s growth versus valuation relative to past leaders like Cisco. They debate rising yields, inflation measures, and expectations for a rate-cutting Fed chair (Kevin Warsh). The conversation covers Intel’s potential benefit from agentic shifts, corporate AI cost pressures, likely disruption to software/IT services and knowledge work, Micron’s HBM-driven surge and cyclicality risks, and how major IPOs like SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic could reshape flows and create new short opportunities. —FOLLOW USYouTube: @RiskReversalMediaInstagram: @riskreversalmediaTwitter: @RiskReversalLinkedIn: RiskReversal Media

Transcribed - Published: 29 May 2026

Dan Nathan hosts David Schamis (CEO, Hyperliquid Strategies) and Jeroen Nieuwkoop (COO, Hyperliquid Strategies) to explain Hyperliquid, a three-and-a-half-year-old L1 blockchain built for high-throughput exchange activity and best known for perpetual futures trading. They discuss how Hyperliquid aims to be an “AWS of on-chain trading,” enabling permissionless exchanges like Trade XYZ to list perps on assets such as major U.S. equities, gold, silver, and oil, and why decentralized custody, speed, and UI/UX differentiate it from prior DEXs. They outline HYPE tokenomics, including using ~99% of protocol fees for token buybacks and burns, and define perp pricing via funding rates. The conversation covers U.S. regulatory constraints, Hyperliquid Strategies’ Nasdaq-listed DAT (PURR) formed via reverse merger to provide U.S. access to HYPE exposure, and emerging use cases like pre-IPO perps (e.g., SpaceX) for 24/7 price discovery. —FOLLOW USYouTube: @RiskReversalMediaInstagram: @riskreversalmediaTwitter: @RiskReversalLinkedIn: RiskReversal Media

Transcribed - Published: 28 May 2026

Click the link http://kalshi.com/r/MOSES or download the Kalshi App and use code MOSES to sign up and trade today! Checkout the Boock Report: https://boockreport.com On this episode of On the Tape, host Danny Moses sits down with returning guest Peter Boockvar — independent economist, market strategist, and CIO at OnePoint BFG Wealth Partners — for a wide-ranging conversation on the forces shaping today's markets. Peter and Danny dig into why yields finally started mattering to equity investors, the self-fulfilling momentum behind the AI trade, and China's rapid rise as a formidable competitor in EVs, robotics, semiconductors, and AI — and what that means for U.S. tech dominance. They also tackle the housing affordability crisis, the Fed's rate path, rising unemployment risk, and whether the U.S. consumer can hold up. Plus, Danny runs Peter through a series of event contract odds — from Fed rate cuts to S&P price targets — for a fast-paced gut-check on where markets are headed. --ABOUT THE SHOWFor decades, Danny has seen it all on Wall Street and has built his reputation on integrity, curiosity and skepticism that he will bring with him each week. Having traded through the Great Financial Crisis and being featured in "The Big Short" is only part of the experiences Danny wants to share with the listener. This weekly podcast cuts through market noise, offering entertaining and informative discussions with expert guests giving their views of the financial world and the human side of it. Whether you're a seasoned investor or just getting started, On The Tape provides something for all listeners.Follow Danny on X: @dmoses34The financial opinions expressed are for information purposes only. The opinions expressed by the hosts and participants are not an attempt to influence specific trading behavior, investments, or strategies. Past performance does not necessarily predict future outcomes. No specific results or profits are assured when relying on this content.Before making any investment or trade, evaluate its suitability for your circumstances and consider consulting your own financial or investment advisor. The financial products discussed in 'On The Tape' carry a high level of risk and may not be appropriate for many investors. If you have uncertainties, it's advisable to seek professional advice. Remember that trading involves a risk to your capital, so only invest money that you can afford to lose.Derivatives are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of losing more than the amount originally deposited and any profit you might have made. This communication is not a recommendation or offer to buy, sell or retain any specific investment or service.

Transcribed - Published: 28 May 2026

Today, we’re back on Wall Street and dining at Harry’s, a trusted Wall Street institution for over 50 years. Joining us is Liz Thomas, Chief Market Strategist at SoFi. Her origin story starts in Wisconsin, but she’s made a name for herself in New York as a trusted market and investment guru. Prior to joining SoFi, Liz was the Director of Market Strategy at BNY Mellon, a Portfolio Analyst at Baird, and a Research Analyst at BMO Global Asset Management. Timecodes 00:00 — “Edgy Broads” 00:21 — Welcome to Standing Table at Harry’s on Wall Street 01:24 — Meet SoFi’s Head of Investment Strategy, Liz Thomas 02:24 — From Wisconsin to Wall Street: Liz’s Journey Begins 04:54 — The Mentor Who Changed Liz’s Career Path 06:14 — Guy & Dan Tell the Early Fast Money Origin Story 09:35 — Liz Opens Up About Leaving Everything Behind for NYC 12:31 — Becoming a CNBC Personality & Inspiring Young Women 16:18 — Why Liz Took the Leap from BNY Mellon to SoFi 20:49 — Marriage, Motherhood & Being the Breadwinner 22:21 — Liz’s Mission Supporting Women Through Grace Outreach 23:37 — Liz’s Career Advice: Don’t Wait to Be Noticed Standing Table is made possible through our continued partnership with Apex Fintech Solutions. Apex Fintech Solutions provides the tools and services that enable hundreds of clients to launch, scale, and support digital investing for tens of millions of end investors. The company provides essential infrastructure and a comprehensive ecosystem of cloud-based products to enable and streamline trading, wealth management, cost basis, tax reporting, and, through its subsidiary Apex Clearing™, custody and clearing. For more information, visit the Apex Fintech Solutions website: https://apexfintechsolutions.com/ LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/apex-fintech/ —FOLLOW USYouTube: @RiskReversalMediaInstagram: @riskreversalmediaTwitter: @RiskReversalLinkedIn: RiskReversal Media

Transcribed - Published: 26 May 2026

Guy Adami and Dan Nathan discuss an S&P 500 pressing all-time highs amid sticky inflation, a 10-year yield around the mid-4% range, and low near-term volatility despite an upcoming Fed meeting and PCE data. They review mixed retail signals (strength at higher-end brands versus Walmart’s margin pressure and a strained lower-end consumer), debate the market’s resilience, and focus on AI: Nvidia’s explosive growth and concerns that soaring usage-based AI costs could challenge the “sanctity” of big-tech CapEx, alongside critiques of Meta layoffs and skepticism about SaaS firms overpromising AI. Guy then interviews Darrell Crate of Easterly, who outlines structural volatility, demographic-driven retirement needs, and hedged equity demand, argues small caps benefit from innovation, and describes Easterly Government Properties as a mission-critical government-lease REIT with an 8% dividend, no canceled leases, a $1.5B pipeline, and potential tailwinds from government efficiency initiatives and GSA changes. —FOLLOW USYouTube: @RiskReversalMediaInstagram: @riskreversalmediaTwitter: @RiskReversalLinkedIn: RiskReversal Media

Transcribed - Published: 25 May 2026

Brian Belski joins Dan Nathan to break down why he still sees the S&P 500 moving higher — but warns a correction may come first. Belski explains why this is now an earnings-driven market, why the Mag 7 may begin to hand leadership to the other 493 stocks, and what could trigger the next pullback. He also shares his views on AI stocks, SpaceX/OpenAI IPOs, financials, industrials, housing, rates, and why he believes the market could still end the year with “an 8 handle.” Topics include:• Why Brian Belski expects a correction before another rally• The case for S&P 8,000 (and why it won’t be a straight line)• AI enthusiasm, IPO mania & whether we’re in a bubble• Why he’s bullish on financials, industrials & select cyclicals• Treasury yields, housing, Walmart, Deere & the consumer outlook• What could actually trigger the next bear market Timecodes 00:00 Intro + Brian Belski Returns02:00 Inside Belski’s New ETF (HIS) & Stock-Picking Strategy05:45 How Belski Nailed the S&P 7,000 Call08:30 Why 2026 Is an “Earnings-Driven” Market09:45 Why Belski Expects a Market Correction10:45 Mag 7 vs. The Other 493 Stocks14:00 Walmart Warning, Consumer Trends & Retail Risks17:15 Deere, Industrials & Why AI Could Benefit Old Economy Stocks20:00 Why Belski Still Likes Financials Despite Weak Performance21:45 Airlines, FedEx & The Transport Trade24:00 Housing, Homebuilders & What Happens If Rates Fall26:45 Will Treasury Yields Finally Move Lower?31:00 SpaceX, OpenAI & Anthropic IPO Risks33:00 Could AI IPOs Trigger a Market Shake-Up?39:00 The AI Trade: Bubble, Boom or Just Getting Started?44:00 What Wall Street Is Missing in Software & AI45:45 Timing the Next Market Correction48:00 What Could Actually Cause a Bear Market?49:45 Belski’s S&P Outlook: Why He Sees an “8 Handle” This episode is sponsored by Fidelity Investments and the all-new Fidelity Trader+ platform. Try Fidelity’s most powerful trading experience yet: ⁠www.Fidelity.com/TraderPlus⁠ Fidelity Investments and Risk Reversal are not affiliated. Views, opinions, products, services, and strategies discussed are not endorsed or promoted by Fidelity Investments. Fidelity Brokerage Services LLC, Member NYSE, SIPC. Xxx —FOLLOW USYouTube: @RiskReversalMediaInstagram: @riskreversalmediaTwitter: @RiskReversalLinkedIn: RiskReversal Media

Transcribed - Published: 22 May 2026

Dan Nathan sits down with Lux Capital partner Shahin Farshchi and AI investor Ann Bordetsky from the RBC Private Tech Conference to explore what comes after ChatGPT — and where the next wave of AI is headed. From defense, robotics, semiconductors, and space infrastructure to AI agents, enterprise software, and the future of work, these conversations break down the technologies, companies, and trends shaping the next decade. They also discuss trillion-dollar valuations, venture capital, hyperscalers, and what separates breakout AI winners from the rest. —FOLLOW USYouTube: @RiskReversalMediaInstagram: @riskreversalmediaTwitter: @RiskReversalLinkedIn: RiskReversal Media

Transcribed - Published: 20 May 2026

Today we're doing lunch at Manhatta, towering 60 stories above the financial district. Joining us is Rick Heitzmann, co-founder and partner at one of New York's most influential early stage venture firms, First Mark Capital.  Rick has been early to some of the most category defining companies of the last decade, backing names like Pinterest, Airbnb, and DraftKings. That foresight has landed him on the Forbes Midas list, not once, not twice, but five times. And if that wasn't enough, he's living the dream of every New York sports fan, joining the ownership group of the New York Yankees. Timecodes: 00:00 – Cold open: The Vilification of AI 01:08 – Meet Rick Heitzmann 03:18 - Philly Sports Fan Turned Yankees Owner 05:02 - How Rick Got Into Yankees Ownership 06:00 - Spotting Trends Early: DraftKings, Airbnb & Pinterest 07:50 - Sports Betting, Prediction Markets & Integrity in Sports 09:40 - Danny Meyer, Hospitality & NYC Restaurant Culture 11:27 - Why the Restaurant Business Is So Tough Right Now 12:46 - AI, Digital Health & The Future of Healthcare 15:45 - The Explosion of Women’s Sports & Sports Merch Culture 18:02 - The Great Jersey Debate: Should Adults Wear Them? — FOLLOW US Instagram: riskreversalmedia   Twitter: https://x.com/riskreversal LinkedIn: riskreversalmedia   #investing #stocks #stockmarket #ApexFintechSolutions Standing Table is made possible through our continued partnership with Apex Fintech Solutions. Apex Fintech Solutions provides the tools and services that enable hundreds of clients to launch, scale, and support digital investing for tens of millions of end investors. The company provides essential infrastructure and a comprehensive ecosystem of cloud-based products to enable and streamline trading, wealth management, cost basis, tax reporting, and, through its subsidiary Apex Clearing™, custody and clearing. For more information, visit the Apex Fintech Solutions website: https://apexfintechsolutions.com/ LinkedIn: apex-fintech SUBSCRIBE: RiskReversal Pod for more from Guy and Dan: https://apple.co/3RzvgpD RiskReversal Media channel for more episodes and content:    / @riskreversalmedia   The financial opinions expressed in Risk Reversal content are for information purposes only. The opinions expressed by the hosts and participants are not an attempt to influence specific trading behavior, investments, or strategies. Past performance does not necessarily predict future outcomes. No specific results or profits are assured when relying on Risk Reversal. Before making any investment or trade, evaluate its suitability for your circumstances and consider consulting your own financial or investment advisor. The financial products discussed in Risk Reversal carry a high level of risk and may not be appropriate for many investors. If you have uncertainties, it's advisable to seek professional advice. Remember that trading involves a risk to your capital, so only invest money that you can afford to lose. Derivatives are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of losing more than the amount originally deposited and any profit you might have made. This communication is not a recommendation or offer to buy, sell or retain any specific investment or service.​​

Transcribed - Published: 19 May 2026

In this episode of the Risk Reversal Podcast, Dan Nathan and Guy Adami discuss Friday's stock sell-off, geopolitical tensions, oil and the AI mania. Later, they sit down with Brian Hartigan, Global Head of ETFs & Index Investments at Invesco, to discuss the future of the QQQ, market concentration, passive investing, AI-driven growth, and the next wave of mega IPOs. They dive into Nvidia’s dominance, the role of options in investing, why QQQ has remained a powerful long-term vehicle, and what investors should understand about market structure as AI reshapes the economy. Topics include: • QQQ and the evolution of the Nasdaq 100 • Nvidia, concentration risk & AI winners • Passive investing and market structure • The growing role of options strategies • SpaceX, OpenAI & the next generation of IPOs • Interest rates, fixed income & portfolio construction • Product innovation at Invesco Timecodes: 00:00 Intro: Markets, Trump/Xi Summit & Rising Yields 07:18 Why Bond Yields Could Pressure Stocks 12:08 Is the Consumer Actually Slowing? 16:10 AI Mania, Ford Energy & Speculative Trading 18:50 Cerebras IPO & Peak AI Speculation? 25:05 Brian Hartigan Joins the Podcast 26:35 What Brian Hartigan Does at Invesco 28:15 Inside QQQ: Concentration, Nvidia & Liquidity 30:20 Retail vs Institutional Investors in QQQ 34:05 SpaceX, OpenAI & Fast-Tracking IPOs into Indexes 39:05 Passive Investing & Why Companies Want Into QQQ 42:18 How Investors Use QQQ Options 45:15 Interest Rates, Fixed Income & Portfolio Positioning 47:05 AI, Nvidia & the Future of Market Leadership 50:45 Why QQQ Has Been a Long-Term Winner 52:45 How Invesco Builds New ETF Products 54:40 Georgetown, NCAA Sponsorships & Investor Education 56:45 Final Thoughts & Outro —FOLLOW USYouTube: @RiskReversalMediaInstagram: @riskreversalmediaTwitter: @RiskReversalLinkedIn: RiskReversal Media

Transcribed - Published: 18 May 2026

Anthony Scaramucci joins Guy Adami for a wide-ranging conversation on everything from Dante’s Inferno and human nature to Bitcoin, risk-taking, wealth, and the future of money. Scaramucci explains why he believes understanding history matters more than ever, shares his outlook on China and Taiwan, and breaks down why Bitcoin could become one of the most important technologies of our time. Plus: lessons on success, failure, family, gratitude, and what really matters in life. Timecodes: 00:00 Intro 01:00 Why Dante’s Inferno Still Matters03:00 The Nine Circles of Hell & Human Nature04:00 Trump, Xi & the Thucydides Trap09:00 Will China Invade Taiwan?12:00 Legacy, Art & Being Remembered15:00 Why Bitcoin Matters17:00 Bitcoin, Blockchain & the Future of Money22:00 Why You Need Bitcoin Exposure23:00 Who Scaramucci Trusts in Crypto24:00 Reinvention, Risk & Innovation26:30 Are Great Investors Born?28:30 Wealth, Happiness & Family31:00 Forgiveness, Gratitude & Parenting33:00 Final Thoughts + Follow Anthony This episode is sponsored by Fidelity Investments and the all-new Fidelity Trader+ platform. Try Fidelity’s most powerful trading experience yet: www.Fidelity.com/TraderPlus Fidelity Investments and Risk Reversal are not affiliated. Views, opinions, products, services, and strategies discussed are not endorsed or promoted by Fidelity Investments. Fidelity Brokerage Services LLC, Member NYSE, SIPC. Xxx —FOLLOW USYouTube: @RiskReversalMediaInstagram: @riskreversalmediaTwitter: @RiskReversalLinkedIn: RiskReversal Media

Transcribed - Published: 15 May 2026

This episode might work better visually! Click here to watch on YouTube: https://youtu.be/F6p1s00YIck Carter Worth is BACK with the WAWD Substack boys for another edition of "Bourbon & Charts" Click the link http://kalshi.com/r/MOSES or download the Kalshi App and use code MOSES to sign up and trade today! Timecodes 0:00 - Intro 1:30 - SPX & Semis 14:30 - Gold, $AEM & Copper 23:00 - Yields 30:00 - Oil & Energy 36:30 - Single Names -- ABOUT THE SHOW For decades, Danny has seen it all on Wall Street and has built his reputation on integrity, curiosity and skepticism that he will bring with him each week. Having traded through the Great Financial Crisis and being featured in "The Big Short" is only part of the experiences Danny wants to share with the listener. This weekly podcast cuts through market noise, offering entertaining and informative discussions with expert guests giving their views of the financial world and the human side of it. Whether you're a seasoned investor or just getting started, On The Tape provides something for all listeners. Follow Danny on X: @dmoses34 The financial opinions expressed are for information purposes only. The opinions expressed by the hosts and participants are not an attempt to influence specific trading behavior, investments, or strategies. Past performance does not necessarily predict future outcomes. No specific results or profits are assured when relying on this content. Before making any investment or trade, evaluate its suitability for your circumstances and consider consulting your own financial or investment advisor. The financial products discussed in 'On The Tape' carry a high level of risk and may not be appropriate for many investors. If you have uncertainties, it's advisable to seek professional advice. Remember that trading involves a risk to your capital, so only invest money that you can afford to lose. Derivatives are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of losing more than the amount originally deposited and any profit you might have made. This communication is not a recommendation or offer to buy, sell or retain any specific investment or service.

Transcribed - Published: 14 May 2026

At RBC Capital Markets’ Private Tech Conference, Dan Nathan interviews RBC analysts Brad Erickson, Rishi Jaluria, Matt Swanson, and Matt Hedberg on Q1 earnings and AI’s impact across internet and software. Erickson says demand is solid, hyperscalers are raising CapEx as cloud ROI improves, and explains why Meta’s higher spend hurt the stock versus Google/Amazon’s accelerating cloud revenue and margins; he ranks Amazon over Google over Meta and discusses Uber’s AV positioning versus Waymo. Jaluria is bullish on Microsoft’s broad AI opportunities, notes Copilot’s growing paid users, and discusses multimodel strategy, small/medium models, and Oracle’s controversial OpenAI-linked data center build and financing. Swanson covers ad/martech, highlighting Adobe’s “orchestration” narrative, Trade Desk’s holding-company tensions, and AppLovin’s ROAS-driven model. Hedberg argues cyber and infrastructure need “more, not less” security post-Anthropic’s Mythos, cites capitulation in software sentiment, favors consolidators like CrowdStrike, Palo Alto, Snowflake, Datadog, and ServiceNow, and notes AI-driven efficiency and layoffs as potential catalysts amid continued volatility. —FOLLOW USYouTube: @RiskReversalMediaInstagram: @riskreversalmediaTwitter: @RiskReversalLinkedIn: RiskReversal Media

Transcribed - Published: 13 May 2026

Tonight we're at Hunt and Fish Club talking with Anthony Scaramucci. Most people know him for his famous two weeks in the Trump White House, but he's so much more than that. He's the founder of SkyBridge Capital, a fixture on Wall Street, and one of New York's most resilient comeback stories. In 2015, he co-founded Hunt and Fish Club, a tribute to 1960s New York and old-school hospitality. Listen in while we discuss inflation, Bitcoin, and what’s broken in America. Timecodes: 00:00 – Cold open: Wall Street vs. Washington 00:30 – Show Intro 01:08 – Meet Anthony Scaramucci + Hunt & Fish Club 02:30 – Childhood, family values & early influences 04:47 – Career start: Goldman Sachs & lessons learned 05:30 – Inflation, debt & the state of the economy 08:24 – Wealth gap & what’s broken in America 11:24 – Culture, mentorship & paying it forward 16:15 – Bitcoin, money & the future of finance 21:10 – Politics, life lessons & gratitude — FOLLOW US Instagram: ⁠https://www.instagram.com/riskreversalmedia/⁠ Twitter: ⁠https://x.com/riskreversal⁠ LinkedIn: ⁠https://www.linkedin.com/company/riskreversalmedia/⁠ Standing Table is made possible through our continued partnership with Apex Fintech Solutions. Apex Fintech Solutions provides the tools and services that enable hundreds of clients to launch, scale, and support digital investing for tens of millions of end investors. The company provides essential infrastructure and a comprehensive ecosystem of cloud-based products to enable and streamline trading, wealth management, cost basis, tax reporting, and, through its subsidiary Apex Clearing™, custody and clearing. For more information, visit the Apex Fintech Solutions website: ⁠https://apexfintechsolutions.com/⁠ LinkedIn: ⁠https://www.linkedin.com/company/apex-fintech/⁠ SUBSCRIBE: RiskReversal Pod for more from Guy and Dan: ⁠https://apple.co/3RzvgpD⁠ RiskReversal Media channel for more episodes and content: ⁠https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCRAOycPjsSgcEyQcuJD_ENA⁠ The financial opinions expressed in Risk Reversal content are for information purposes only. The opinions expressed by the hosts and participants are not an attempt to influence specific trading behavior, investments, or strategies. Past performance does not necessarily predict future outcomes. No specific results or profits are assured when relying on Risk Reversal. Before making any investment or trade, evaluate its suitability for your circumstances and consider consulting your own financial or investment advisor. The financial products discussed in Risk Reversal carry a high level of risk and may not be appropriate for many investors. If you have uncertainties, it's advisable to seek professional advice. Remember that trading involves a risk to your capital, so only invest money that you can afford to lose. Derivatives are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of losing more than the amount originally deposited and any profit you might have made. This communication is not a recommendation or offer to buy, sell or retain any specific investment or service.​​

Transcribed - Published: 12 May 2026

Guy Adami and Liz Thomas discuss the April jobs report, noting payrolls rose about 115,000 versus expectations near 65,000, with unemployment steady at 4.3% and back-to-back monthly job gains for the first time in nearly a year. They argue the data increases pressure on the Fed not to cut rates, with markets pricing little chance of a cut and some lingering hike risk, though Thomas doesn’t expect hikes. Despite geopolitical uncertainty and inflation concerns, equities sit at all-time highs, led narrowly by semiconductors and select tech, with limited broadening under the surface. Thomas highlights “Acceleration Nation” data points including improving hiring rates in JOLTS, strong retail sales, and roughly 25% year-over-year Q1 earnings growth, while flagging risks from CapEx/AI optimism fading or more permanent layoffs spreading to old-economy sectors. They also discuss consumer sentiment’s inflation focus, and remain constructive on energy longer term even if oil-driven froth pulls back. —FOLLOW USYouTube: @RiskReversalMediaInstagram: @riskreversalmediaTwitter: @RiskReversalLinkedIn: RiskReversal Media

Transcribed - Published: 11 May 2026

Mike Green returns to On The Tape discuss why U.S. equities hit record highs despite the Iran war and oil spike, arguing systematic 401(k) and volatility/trend strategies drove historic inflows and that markets had largely priced in fear via VIX, correlation, skew, and heavy hedging that later unwound. He critiques Nasdaq’s new low-float multiplier rules as boosting demand for IPOs like SpaceX/OpenAI and warns S&P’s proposal to waive profitability requirements could turn the index into a private-equity exit vehicle and alter its historical quality bias. Green views the Fed as mostly narrative-driven except during major rate shifts, faults data-dependence, and says inflation swaps don’t show a breakout, while high rates act as a fiscal transfer that reinforces a K-shaped economy. He explains passive bond indexing can underweight long-duration Treasuries, potentially motivating buybacks/yield-curve-control-like actions. The conversation also covers AI capex, emerging AI-driven job restructuring favoring older workers, and Bitcoin’s ETF-driven financialization and limited utility. Show Notes Checkout Mike's Substack: https://www.yesigiveafig.com/ Follow On The Tape on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCe8y7CzcjhMPTzem-Zn6sqA —FOLLOW USYouTube: @RiskReversalMediaInstagram: @riskreversalmediaTwitter: @RiskReversalLinkedIn: RiskReversal Media

Transcribed - Published: 8 May 2026

Dan Nathan and Guy Adami broadcast from FactSet’s FOCUS Conference in Austin, highlighting FactSet’s AI innovations, its partnership with Risk Reversal Media, and Dan’s upcoming main-stage interview with new CEO Sanoke Viswanathan. They discuss a potential “SaaS apocalypse” narrative versus the value of closed, reliable data systems like FactSet, then shift to markets: software’s technical setup, Oracle’s overshoots, and an explosive semiconductor/memory rally (SOXX at highs) featuring sharp moves in Intel, Micron, Western Digital, Seagate, and SanDisk. They flag frothy private-market AI valuations (OpenAI, Anthropic, SpaceX), risks of double/triple ordering and eventual margin deterioration, and cite Palantir’s weak post-earnings price action as a possible “fever break.” They also cover energy (Devon, OIH vs XLE), macro/valuation concerns, and weakening signals from Visa/Mastercard and banks. They promote the new YouTube dinner-series “Standing Table,” sponsored by Apex Fintech Solutions. Show Notes Watch our pod with Dan Benton: ⁠https://youtu.be/ijtHKlDYvO03⁠ Watch the trailer for 'Standing Table': ⁠https://youtu.be/JymGJWG98r0 —FOLLOW USYouTube: @RiskReversalMediaInstagram: @riskreversalmediaTwitter: @RiskReversalLinkedIn: RiskReversal Media —FOLLOW USYouTube: @RiskReversalMediaInstagram: @riskreversalmediaTwitter: @RiskReversalLinkedIn: RiskReversal Media

Transcribed - Published: 6 May 2026

Join the WAWD Substack: https://whatarewedoingonthedesk.substack.com/ Guy Adami and Danny Moses open with a brief New York Giants aside before turning to markets, focusing on Jerome Powell’s final Fed press conference as Chair, his plan to remain a governor, and expectations that Kevin Warsh will become Fed Chair as the administration seeks more influence over the Board. They discuss how markets have stayed resilient despite $100 oil, rising global yields, a weakening yen with Japan intervention near 160, geopolitical stress, and a subdued VIX, attributing much of the strength to passive flows and forced institutional chasing. Moses flags inflation beginning to filter through via price hikes and warns the consumer may eventually feel higher energy costs. They debate energy stocks’ durability even if crude eases, remain constructive on gold amid fiscal/geopolitical risks, note elevated valuation signals like the Buffett indicator, and address concerns about “fantasy math” in AI, citing OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar’s tempered adoption comments and cautioning retail on private-market secondaries. —FOLLOW USYouTube: @RiskReversalMediaInstagram: @riskreversalmediaTwitter: @RiskReversalLinkedIn: RiskReversal Media

Transcribed - Published: 4 May 2026

This episode is sponsored by Fidelity Investments and the all-new Fidelity Trader+ platform. Try Fidelity’s most powerful trading experience yet: www.Fidelity.com/TraderPlus Fidelity Investments and Risk Reversal are not affiliated. Views, opinions, products, services, and strategies discussed are not endorsed or promoted by Fidelity Investments. Fidelity Brokerage Services LLC, Member NYSE, SIPC. Dan Nathan speaks with David Rosenberg about a market week packed with tech earnings, GDP, PCE, the Fed, oil above $100, and a sharp USD/JPY move. Rosenberg argues the U.S. economy is K-shaped, with Q1 GDP growth heavily driven by AI-related tech capex while non-tech business investment contracts, and consumer spending exceeding flat-to-negative real disposable income mainly due to a falling savings rate, wealth effects at the high end, and credit reliance at the low end amid rising delinquencies. He says most sectors are losing jobs, productivity has driven nearly all recent growth, and an oil price shock is a supply-side tax likely to weaken demand rather than create sustained inflation. They discuss a divided Fed under new chair Kevin Warsh, high market concentration, extreme valuations with a near-zero equity risk premium, and whether yen moves or oil are bigger risks for equities. —FOLLOW USYouTube: @RiskReversalMediaInstagram: @riskreversalmediaTwitter: @RiskReversalLinkedIn: RiskReversal Media

Transcribed - Published: 1 May 2026

Dan Nathan is joined by Guy Adami for a deep dive into a Wall Street Journal report on OpenAI's sprint toward IPO — and the growing tension between CEO Sam Altman and CFO Sarah Frier, whose candid comments about the company's financials are raising eyebrows. Dan and Guy unpack what $120 billion in fresh capital, massive enterprise contracts, and a web of vendor financing really mean for the AI trade — and whether the whole ecosystem is as solid as it looks. From there, the conversation widens to the broader hyperscaler picture: which companies are spending big on AI infrastructure, which ones (like Apple) are quietly waiting it out, and what upcoming earnings from the biggest names in tech could reveal about whether the AI build-out is paying off. The guys also touch on Microsoft's setup heading into earnings and where the stock might be headed. Show Notes OpenAI Misses Key Revenue, User Targets in High-Stakes Sprint Toward IPO (WSJ) —FOLLOW USYouTube: @RiskReversalMediaInstagram: @riskreversalmediaTwitter: @RiskReversalLinkedIn: RiskReversal Media

Transcribed - Published: 29 April 2026

Dan Nathan interviews Michael Nathanson, co-founder of MoffettNathanson, on the RiskReversal Podcast about his 28-year analyst career and pivot from linear media to digital advertising and Big Tech. Nathanson explains why Google and Meta became a hedge against cord-cutting-driven declines in cable networks, noting their strong growth, performance-ad monetization advantages, and durable distribution. He reflects on mistakes (notably underestimating Netflix) and lessons about backing secular winners while monitoring capital formation and competitive narrative shifts. The discussion focuses on AI’s impact: Nathanson defends Alphabet’s willingness to innovate, infrastructure advantages, first-party data, and TPU strategy, while questioning Meta’s heavy AI and metaverse spending without a clear long-term plan or returns framework. He also describes MoffettNathanson’s industry-first, supply-demand research process and independence from investment banking conflicts. After the break, Dan hosts Adam Singolda, CEO and founder of Taboola, on the Risk Reversal Podcast to discuss Taboola’s role in the open web advertising market outside Google and Meta. Singolda explains Taboola’s performance ad platform serves thousands of advertisers and pays partners about $1.5B annually, helping publishers, apps, and OEMs monetize and drive engagement. They discuss publisher pressure from LLM-driven “Google Zero” traffic declines, and Taboola’s “Deeper Dive” answer engine that sits on publisher pages to enable conversational engagement; Taboola data shows users who ask questions generate 3+ times more revenue and 2–3 times more engagement than traditional ads. Singolda also announces a Claude skill that lets users launch and optimize Taboola campaigns agent-to-agent based on performance goals, argues OpenAI will struggle to build an ad business while Google’s Gemini will likely succeed, and outlines how companies must adopt AI aggressively to accelerate growth and profitability. —FOLLOW USYouTube: @RiskReversalMediaInstagram: @riskreversalmediaTwitter: @RiskReversalLinkedIn: RiskReversal Media

Transcribed - Published: 27 April 2026

Dan Nathan and Peter Boockvar discuss a narrow, under-the-hood stock market rally driven largely by AI beneficiaries—especially semiconductors and data-center hardware—while hyperscalers lag as they turn asset-heavy and free cash flow falls. They note extreme momentum in semis (record RSI/long winning streak) and debate catalysts for a reversal, including hyperscaler CapEx guidance, potential demand destruction from higher component costs, and front-loaded ordering tied to war-driven supply fears. The conversation broadens to geopolitics: war-related commodity impacts, Strait of Hormuz risks, and U.S.-China leverage via rare-earth magnets critical to defense production, with expectations Trump’s China trip may be pragmatic. They touch on defense stocks’ vulnerability to drones, Fed-chair transition expectations toward Warsh, early earnings takeaways (banks steady, homebuilders fragile), and focus on upcoming hyperscaler results for ads and CapEx. Show Notes Checkout The Boock Report: peterboockvar.substack.com/ FactSet's Earnings Insight: factset.com/insight/subscribe —FOLLOW USYouTube: @RiskReversalMediaInstagram: @riskreversalmediaTwitter: @RiskReversalLinkedIn: RiskReversal Media

Transcribed - Published: 24 April 2026

Dan Nathan interviews Wedbush's Dan Ives on “Okay, Computer.” about Tim Cook unexpectedly stepping down as Apple CEO (remaining chairman) ahead of WWDC, Apple’s still-unclear AI strategy, and why Apple’s installed base could make it a key “toll collector” for consumer AI via edge computing, services, and an AI-enabled App/agent ecosystem that may drive higher hardware memory needs and subscriptions. They discuss whether Apple’s valuation can rerate if it proves AI success and argue the new CEO should be more acquisitive in AI/software/robotics. Ives says fears that Anthropic/OpenAI will “unseat” major SaaS incumbents are a false narrative, expecting AI monetization to improve as features bundle into core products and pricing models evolve. They preview earnings setups for Microsoft, Google, and Meta, and share Asia channel-check takeaways: strong AI hardware demand, a memory supercycle, and potential geopolitical supply-chain risks. —FOLLOW USYouTube: @RiskReversalMediaInstagram: @riskreversalmediaTwitter: @RiskReversalLinkedIn: RiskReversal Media

Transcribed - Published: 22 April 2026

Dan Nathan and Guy Adami discuss an unusually persistent market rally, with a “sea of green” pushing the S&P 500 to new highs as crude oil reverses lower on signs the Strait of Hormuz remains open during a ceasefire. They debate whether investors are conditioned to buy dips even if Middle East tensions flare again, noting VIX levels and an overbought setup heading into the heart of earnings. They flag Netflix down 10% despite solid free cash flow, attributing the drop to guidance and Reed Hastings leaving the board, and call out Intel’s near-parabolic move ahead of a pivotal print. They also examine software’s potential inflection (including SAP), strong bank CEO tone on the consumer, energy-stock pullbacks as buying opportunities, homebuilders surging on lower yields, and key upcoming guests and shows. —FOLLOW USYouTube: @RiskReversalMediaInstagram: @riskreversalmediaTwitter: @RiskReversalLinkedIn: RiskReversal Media

Transcribed - Published: 20 April 2026

Dan Nathan and Guy Adami welcome Morgan Stanley’s Chief U.S. Equity Strategist Mike Wilson back to the Risk Reversal Podcast to discuss his career at the firm and his current market outlook. Wilson argues markets have largely priced in bad news and likely put in the year’s lows near the 6,500 range, citing capitulation signals, positioning, and sentiment, though geopolitical risk from the Iran conflict remains. He sees earnings strength and broadening beyond the “Mag Seven,” with opportunities in small caps, consumer discretionary, financials, and industrials, while noting AI-driven hyperscalers became cheaper and can still work. Key risks include bond volatility and a loss of control of long-end rates amid heavy refinancing needs and a Fed leadership transition. They also cover AI CapEx returns, energy constraints, U.S.-China competition, private credit’s limited systemic threat, consumer affordability issues, and Wilson’s 7,800 S&P 500 target within 9 to 12 months. Show Notes Earnings Insight (FactSet) China’s surging chip tool imports from south-east Asia (FT) —FOLLOW USYouTube: @RiskReversalMediaInstagram: @riskreversalmediaTwitter: @RiskReversalLinkedIn: RiskReversal Media

Transcribed - Published: 17 April 2026

Dan Nathan and Guy Adami discuss major tech themes and trades, focusing on dispersion in mega-cap tech and the recent underperformance and rebounds of the “Mag 7.” They examine Microsoft’s AI positioning and Azure deceleration amid ongoing capacity and power constraints, contrasted with rivals (AWS, Oracle, GCP) picking up demand tied to OpenAI. The conversation highlights Michael Burry’s view that software-stock declines have been amplified by software credit stress and may be overextended, with Oracle as a key example given its steep drawdown and elevated CDS. They also cover Apple’s AI strategy, reliance on Gemini, WWDC expectations to improve Siri, and key technical levels amid headline sensitivity. Finally, they assess Intel’s sharp rally tied to a reworked CHIPS deal and Nvidia involvement, and preview Netflix earnings with a mixed technical setup and potential upside. Show Notes Trading Post Monday April 13th (Cassandra Unchained) Top of the Morning (Axios) —FOLLOW USYouTube: @RiskReversalMediaInstagram: @riskreversalmediaTwitter: @RiskReversalLinkedIn: RiskReversal Media

Transcribed - Published: 15 April 2026

Dan Nathan and Guy Adami discuss a volatile Friday session after a hotter-than-expected CPI, with software making multi-year lows while semiconductors push to highs, raising the idea that “something’s gotta give.” They point to Microsoft’s sharp drawdown as emblematic of software weakness and debate whether capitulation is near as earnings approach, while semis rally on incremental AI hardware headlines like Broadcom’s TPU-related deal with Google and Anthropic. They consider a 2026 “trade” of bottom-fishing battered software and fading crowded semis, flagging Intel’s rich valuation and Qualcomm’s lagging performance despite an edge-AI/inference narrative. They also note security stocks selling off despite rising AI-driven vulnerability concerns, warn that any hyperscaler CapEx pullback could hit semis hard, and preview bank earnings amid mixed signals on consumer credit, deregulation/IPO optimism, and cyclical risk, alongside geopolitics affecting oil and Taiwan. Articles Mentioned Why the ‘SaaSpocalypse’ doomsayers are wrong (FT) Anthropic Model Scare Sparks Urgent Bessent, Powell Warning to Bank CEOs (Bloomberg) —FOLLOW USYouTube: @RiskReversalMediaInstagram: @riskreversalmediaTwitter: @RiskReversalLinkedIn: RiskReversal Media

Transcribed - Published: 13 April 2026

Guy Adami welcomes Liz Ann Sonders, Chief Investment Strategist at Charles Schwab, for a wide-ranging conversation on the state of modern markets. From the casino-like trading environment that has taken hold in recent weeks, to the deeper cultural forces driving younger investors toward speculation, Liz Ann brings clarity and perspective to some of the most pressing questions in finance today. They also explore behavioral biases, the value of staying disciplined through volatility, and what financial media should be saying but isn't. Show Notes Gambler's Blues: Betting Isn't Investing (Schwab.com) Follow Liz on Twitter: https://x.com/LizAnnSonders —FOLLOW USYouTube: @RiskReversalMediaInstagram: @riskreversalmediaTwitter: @RiskReversalLinkedIn: RiskReversal Media

Transcribed - Published: 10 April 2026

Dan Nathan and Gene Munster of Deepwater Asset Management discuss tech stocks heading into Q1 earnings, focusing on why Google and Broadcom outperformed on news of an Anthropic compute deal using Google TPUs and Broadcom, which they view as validating accelerating AI demand. They explore investor anxiety around AI hardware multiples and hyperscaler CapEx, noting street expectations for calendar 2027 spending growth and how that affects Nvidia and Broadcom sentiment, while arguing AI remains early despite massive costs. Munster outlines Deepwater’s view that premium “high-end” tokens may not commoditize as quickly as costs fall, citing their machine-driven Intelligent Alpha (GPT) ETF. They explain why they don’t own Microsoft, pointing to seat-growth concerns and disappointment with Copilot, and discuss Apple’s need for an AI narrative shift, including privacy-focused personalized AI. Munster previews his SpaceX views, saying it doesn’t need to go public but IPOs can broaden access and lower capital costs, and they consider whether a SpaceX listing impacts Tesla positioning. Show Notes Read Ben Thompson's Stratechery OpenAI CEO and CFO Diverge on IPO Timing (The Information) Gene's Piece on SpaceX (X) —FOLLOW USYouTube: @RiskReversalMediaInstagram: @riskreversalmediaTwitter: @RiskReversalLinkedIn: RiskReversal Media

Transcribed - Published: 8 April 2026

The IPO floodgates are opening — and AI is driving the wave. Dan Nathan sits down with CNBC anchor and tech columnist Deirdre Bosa to break down the biggest stories in tech right now: SpaceX's confidential IPO filing, the Anthropic vs. OpenAI battle for investor dollars, Apple's strange standoff with the vibe coding generation, and why the AI trade has been a dud in public markets even as private valuations soar. Then, Dan talks with Michael Manapat, Co-Founder and CEO of Rowspace — the AI-native financial data platform that just raised $50M in a Sequoia-led round. Michael breaks down why private equity and private credit firms can't afford to sit on the sidelines anymore, how Rowspace is deploying agents across every layer of their business, and what it really means to be "AI-native" in 2026. Two conversations. One throughline: the money is moving, the window is open, and the firms that don't adapt are already behind. —FOLLOW USYouTube: @RiskReversalMediaInstagram: @riskreversalmediaTwitter: @RiskReversalLinkedIn: RiskReversal Media

Transcribed - Published: 6 April 2026

Danny Moses returns to the Risk Reversal Podcast with a stark warning: the tools that bailed us out in 2008 and COVID won't work this time. With U.S. debt surging from $35.5T to $39T in just 18 months, Danny explains why the Fed is boxed in, why small businesses are drowning in economic scar tissue, and why crude oil hitting 4-year highs while stocks shrug should have everyone paying attention. Plus — his one genuinely bullish conviction play in a market that's making optimism very hard to find. Checkout the WAWD Substack —FOLLOW USYouTube: @RiskReversalMediaInstagram: @riskreversalmediaTwitter: @RiskReversalLinkedIn: RiskReversal Media

Transcribed - Published: 3 April 2026

Dan Nathan hosts CNBC’s Morgan Brennan on the RiskReversal Podcast to discuss her path from music and anthropology to Forbes during the 2009 crisis and then CNBC, and how breaking news—an on-pad SpaceX explosion in 2016 and later Trump’s defense-focused tweets—pulled her into covering space and defense tech. They explore NASA’s Artemis program and its refocus on beating China to the moon, arguing public-private partnerships, new contracting models, and rocket reusability have dramatically improved economics, enabling smaller firms to execute NASA missions at a fraction of past costs. The conversation covers how space and defense investing is shaped by demand signals, milestone-driven public comps, venture and private-equity capital, and a potential SpaceX IPO where Starlink’s recurring revenue is central, alongside Starship’s promise. They also discuss deconsolidation, dual-use tech, autonomous systems, changing Pentagon dealmaking, and the growing intersection of industrial policy, national security, supply chains, and resources. —FOLLOW USYouTube: @RiskReversalMediaInstagram: @riskreversalmediaTwitter: @RiskReversalLinkedIn: RiskReversal Media

Transcribed - Published: 2 April 2026

Galaxy holds a financial interest in HYPE, BTC, ETH, and SOL. Galaxy regularly engages in buying and selling these assets, including hedging transactions, for its own proprietary accounts and on behalf of its counterparties. Galaxy also provides services to vehicles that invest in these assets. If the value of such assets increases, those vehicles may benefit, and Galaxy’s service fees may increase accordingly. For more information, please refer to Galaxy’s public statements and filings. Cryptocurrencies, including HYPE, BTC, ETH, and SOL, are inherently volatile and risky and ultimate market movements may not align with this statement. For Galaxy’s full social media disclaimer, please visit: ⁠https://www.galaxy.com/social-disclaimer/ Dan Nathan hosts Joe Armao, fund manager of the Galaxy FinTech Fund, who recounts his path from Blackstone through the financial crisis to long/short investing at Senator, where he pushed into fintech and digital assets. They discuss a shift from recent market tailwinds to a more mixed macro backdrop, consumer resilience despite energy shock concerns, and a rotation-driven, choppier “stock picker’s market.” Armao outlines risks in private credit and gating, expects pockets of pain rather than systemic crisis, and emphasizes active balance-sheet work. On crypto, he describes Galaxy’s “great convergence” thesis: prices may lag even as blockchain infrastructure adoption accelerates via stablecoins, tokenization, and 24/7 rails for payments and trading. He explains DeFi concepts, Uniswap governance tokens, Hyperliquid’s revenue-driven token buybacks and leveraged perps, and why tokenizing blue-chip equities could expand global distribution and enable always-on markets. Armao argues AI and blockchain are now mission-critical to fintech investing and create dispersion suited to long/short strategies. —FOLLOW USYouTube: @RiskReversalMediaInstagram: @riskreversalmediaTwitter: @RiskReversalLinkedIn: RiskReversal Media

Transcribed - Published: 1 April 2026

Guy Adami and Dan Nathan break down a market that looks calm on the surface but is flashing serious warning signs underneath. The real pressure point isn't the stock market — it's the bond market, where rising yields and an incoming Fed chair are setting up a test few are prepared for. The duo cover the stagflation setup quietly taking shape, the silent destruction in mega-cap tech (Microsoft, Nvidia, Meta), and why weakness in financials — with nearly $2 trillion in private credit exposure — may be the most underappreciated risk in the market right now. As Pete Townshend once said: "No one respects the flame quite like the fool who's badly burned." Guy and Dan think a lot of people are about to find out what that means. Show Notes An Invisible Bottleneck: A Helium Shortage Threatens the Chip Industry (NYT) —FOLLOW USYouTube: @RiskReversalMediaInstagram: @riskreversalmediaTwitter: @RiskReversalLinkedIn: RiskReversal Media

Transcribed - Published: 30 March 2026

Dan Nathan and Dan Greenhaus discuss heightened Middle East war risk and how it’s driving market moves, with the S&P 500 down near recent lows, yields near multi-month highs, the dollar firming, and crude in the mid-$90s, while stressing how difficult it is to “trade geopolitics.” Greenhaus argues markets may be underpricing escalation risk but notes the U.S. is less oil-intensive, so higher gasoline hurts sentiment more than GDP, with tax-bill refunds partly offsetting pump prices and a lasting geopolitical premium likely keeping oil above prior lows. They debate recession calls, citing payment networks’ commentary that consumer health remains solid, and discuss why headline inflation may rise while core inflation moves little, making Fed hikes unlikely as long-term inflation expectations stay anchored. They also address tight credit spreads, AI-driven capex concentration, tech valuation compression, layoffs, and private credit concerns, arguing losses are not yet systemic and gates are disclosed, while advising caution and sometimes doing nothing amid exogenous uncertainty. Show Notes Debt Service Payments Rising (The Daily Spark) Private credit is looking shakier (Axios) Checkout Rosenberg Research —FOLLOW USYouTube: @RiskReversalMediaInstagram: @riskreversalmediaTwitter: @RiskReversalLinkedIn: RiskReversal Media

Transcribed - Published: 27 March 2026

Dan Nathan and Jeff Richards (Managing Partner at Notable Capital) discuss shifting AI narratives and market crosscurrents, focusing on OpenAI, Anthropic (which Notable backs), xAI, Gemini, and Microsoft’s Copilot. Richards argues Claude/Cowork’s breakout and rapid model improvement are forcing every software company to ask whether its product improves as models improve, while public-market uncertainty has pressured SaaS valuations even as enterprise AI demand accelerates. He says net-new IT spend is increasingly flowing to private AI companies with consumption-based pricing, while incumbents face the Innovator’s Dilemma and pricing cannibalization. They also cover cloud infrastructure demand, opaque private-company financials, IPO considerations, and how volatility and redemption dynamics in private credit are weighing on alt managers like Apollo, KKR, and Blackstone, though Richards expects any issues to be relatively contained. Articles Mentioned OpenAI to double workforce as business push intensifies (FT) xAI Sends Engineers to Client Sites to Win Business from OpenAI (Bloomberg) Microsoft Copilot Is Confronting Its Identity Crisis (Bloomberg) —FOLLOW USYouTube: @RiskReversalMediaInstagram: @riskreversalmediaTwitter: @RiskReversalLinkedIn: RiskReversal Media

Transcribed - Published: 25 March 2026

MRKT Matrix - Tuesday, March 24th S&P 500 falls, giving back chunk of Monday’s rally as oil prices rebound, Iran war continues (CNBC) Jamie Dimon says Iran war makes Middle East peace prospects better in the long term (CNBC) Dimon warns on AI job losses, calls for government-business incentives (CNBC) Big Banks Are Playing Both Sides of the Private-Credit Meltdown (WSJ) Apollo caps investor withdrawals from flagship private credit fund (FT) Apple Plans AI Reboot With Siri App, New Look and ‘Ask Siri’ Button in iOS 27 (Bloomberg) Meta Names New Leader of Push to Adopt AI Throughout Its Workforce (WSJ) US must suspend Nvidia AI chip exports to China, senators say (FT) OpenAI Set to Raise About $10 Billion From MGX, Coatue, Thrive (Bloomberg) SoftBank tests its own borrowing limits with $30bn bet on OpenAI (FT) --- Subscribe to our newsletter: ⁠⁠⁠⁠http://riskreversal.substack.com/⁠⁠⁠⁠ MRKT Matrix by RiskReversal Media is a daily AI powered podcast bringing you the top stories moving financial markets Story curation by RiskReversal, scripts by Perplexity Pro, voice by ElevenLabs

Transcribed - Published: 24 March 2026

Dan Nathan and Peter Boockvar discuss why equities have been slow to react to a widening Middle East conflict even as oil and other commodities jump, arguing markets often assume geopolitical shocks fade until prolonged damage forces a delayed repricing. They note a sharp global rise in rates—U.S. 10-year near 4.4% and record highs in UK/European yields—as central banks shift from expected cuts to potential hikes due to inflation spillovers from energy. Boockvar warns higher yields (4.5% then 5% as key levels) can pressure equities, private credit (lower-quality, floating-rate borrowers), housing and real estate, and upper-income spending, raising recession risk if oil stays near $120. He highlights weakening AI/mega-cap leadership, cites rising private-credit defaults, and frames gold’s volatile pullback as post-parabolic consolidation amid a stronger dollar and higher real rates, while staying bullish longer term on sovereign-debt risks. —FOLLOW USYouTube: @RiskReversalMediaInstagram: @riskreversalmediaTwitter: @RiskReversalLinkedIn: RiskReversal Media

Transcribed - Published: 23 March 2026

Guy Adami interviews investor George Noble about truth-telling, integrity, and eroding confidence in institutions and markets. They discuss trading realism (being right even 25% can be great), the dangers of becoming owned by a public position, and how results-chasing misallocates capital. Noble critiques passive investing for suppressing price discovery and warns reversals could be violent, citing Japan’s 1980s liquidity-driven market. He argues bonds are mispriced given deficits and inflation, expects rates/yields higher even if cuts come, and views asset gains as fiat currency debasement; he advocates owning gold (and some oil) as an inflation hedge. He criticizes private credit/equity as “mark-to-model” volatility laundering and urges real price discovery. Noble favors active management, rotation away from Mag 7, and describes his $99 idea-focused conference (800+ attendees) aimed at sharing veteran investors’ insights. —FOLLOW USYouTube: @RiskReversalMediaInstagram: @riskreversalmediaTwitter: @RiskReversalLinkedIn: RiskReversal Media

Transcribed - Published: 20 March 2026

Dan Nathan and Guy Adami host David Fortunato, CEO of Wealthfront, on the RiskReversal Podcast to discuss Wealthfront’s evolution from its 2010-era launch through years in private markets to its recent IPO and first public-company reporting. Fortunato recounts his path from the financial-crisis period to joining Kaching (which became Wealthfront), and explains key learnings: clients want to delegate investing, tactical allocation rarely delivers alpha, and systematic tax-loss harvesting can materially improve after-tax outcomes, later expanded via direct indexing. He describes Wealthfront’s younger, growing client base, referral-led acquisition, and focus on ease of use and peace of mind, plus products like a portfolio line of credit and a growing home-lending opportunity driven by lower acquisition costs through automation. Fortunato outlines how AI and technology support planning tools like Path, and says public-company visibility helps build awareness and trust. —FOLLOW USYouTube: @RiskReversalMediaInstagram: @riskreversalmediaTwitter: @RiskReversalLinkedIn: RiskReversal Media

Transcribed - Published: 19 March 2026

Guy & Dan set you up for this week in markets, after the break Bill Capuzzi (CEO of Apex Fintech Solutions) & Tom Sosnoff (CEO of LossDog) join the pod. The guys describe Apex’s role as core market infrastructure serving nearly 40 million accounts, the global growth and rising sophistication of retail options trading, AI’s impact on fraud reduction and operational friction, Sosnoff’s new venture Lossdog and AI focus, and both critique prediction markets’ fee structure, conflicts, and looming regulatory reconciliation. Show Notes US intervention in oil futures would be ‘biblical disaster’, CME warns (FT) Schwab CEO Says Markets-Savvy Gen Z Joins Dip-Buying Frenzy (Bloomberg) —FOLLOW USYouTube: @RiskReversalMediaInstagram: @riskreversalmediaTwitter: @RiskReversalLinkedIn: RiskReversal Media

Transcribed - Published: 16 March 2026

Dan Nathan and Guy Adami welcome Jason Thomas, Head of Global Research and Investment Strategy at Carlyle, to discuss why equities often react far less to geopolitical risk than to financial shocks, and how a “security premium” is emerging as policymakers prioritize reliable energy supplies, potentially boosting demand via stockpiling. Thomas explains how markets adapted to tariffs after an initial shock, but argues wars are harder to “end” because multiple parties must agree. They explore a richly valued dollar, limited alternatives driving central banks and investors toward gold, and why supply-chain invoicing reinforces dollar dominance. Thomas expects S&P 500 concentration—largely tied to data centers and the Mag 7—to drive diversification toward equal-weight, small/value, and “old economy” industries amid shifting energy-transition timelines and rising defense needs. They also examine AI’s capex-revenue gap, hyperscaler valuation challenges from heavy infrastructure spending, and argue systemic-risk fears around private credit are overstated versus other leverage risks. Show Notes Bubbles as a Feature Not a Bug (Carlyle) —FOLLOW USYouTube: @RiskReversalMediaInstagram: @riskreversalmediaTwitter: @RiskReversalLinkedIn: RiskReversal Media

Transcribed - Published: 13 March 2026

Dan Nathan and Guy Adami discuss ongoing market volatility and rotation, noting persistent software underperformance versus semiconductor strength, with a brief IGV rebound from late-February lows that has faded as investors return to AI and semis when risk feels “all clear.” They highlight IGV’s concentration in Microsoft, Palantir, Salesforce, and Oracle, and focus on Microsoft’s lack of a meaningful bounce and key technical levels. The conversation also examines Palantir as a valuation-sensitive “story stock” amid narratives around war-driven demand and government contracts. They preview Oracle’s earnings against concerns about AI infrastructure commitments, remaining purchase obligations, margins, and negative cash flow, alongside questions about OpenAI funding and potential diversification of tenants. They close by warning that repeated shallow selloffs may be reinforcing dip-buying and speculative “bubble” behavior despite Mag 7 cooling. Article Mentioned Oracle and OpenAI End Plans to Expand Flagship Data Center (Bloomberg) —FOLLOW USYouTube: @RiskReversalMediaInstagram: @riskreversalmediaTwitter: @RiskReversalLinkedIn: RiskReversal Media

Transcribed - Published: 11 March 2026

Dan Nathan and Guy Adami break down a messy macro picture after the latest nonfarm payrolls miss: a softening labor market, sticky inflation, and an equity tape that still looks oddly calm on the surface. ​They dig into rising credit stress in banks and private credit, what the VIX and bond market are really signaling, and how oil shocks and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East complicate the Fed’s next move. After the break, Jen Saarbach and Kristen Kelly from The Wall Street Skinny join to unpack the Warner-Paramount mega-deal, “synergies” as code for layoffs, AI’s slow-motion impact on white-collar jobs, and why today’s conditions have uncomfortable echoes of 2008. —FOLLOW USYouTube: @RiskReversalMediaInstagram: @riskreversalmediaTwitter: @RiskReversalLinkedIn: RiskReversal Media

Transcribed - Published: 9 March 2026

Guy Adami and Dan Nathan welcome Cameron Dawson, CIO of NewEdge, to discuss market psychology versus history, arguing that positioning, sentiment, and flows show continued retail buying and complacency even as institutions reduced equity exposure around “Liberation Day.” Dawson highlights warning signs including weak financials, discretionary lagging staples, and a “risk swap” from AI-disrupted software into high-valuation defensives and cyclicals. The group explores volatility selling, geopolitical risks that matter mainly through oil’s impact on earnings, and how to monitor credit—especially high yield spreads—while noting private credit and BDCs have heavier software exposure than public high yield. They debate IPO demand for mega private AI firms, bond yields’ lack of trend, the dollar’s role in non-U.S. equities, China’s partial decoupling, gold’s parabolic technicals, and how jobs, growth, inflation, and future EPS estimates shape 2026–2027 market outcomes. Show Notes The Future Freaks Me Out or Everything is Alright? (NewEdge) —FOLLOW USYouTube: @RiskReversalMediaInstagram: @riskreversalmediaTwitter: @RiskReversalLinkedIn: RiskReversal Media

Transcribed - Published: 6 March 2026

Dan Nathan interviews veteran tech investor Dan Benton about how tech investing has changed since Benton’s 1991 “20 rules” at Goldman Sachs and why he’s releasing new “2026 rules,” alongside launching a Substack. Benton contrasts a pre-internet, sell-side, information-advantage era with today’s commoditized data, retail tools, and faster markets, arguing investors now differentiate by identifying secular themes and sticking with them. He emphasizes tech as “the market,” the need to respect the Fed, and that momentum in tech is driven by multi-year estimate trajectories, revenue acceleration, and operating leverage, with valuation often secondary until growth decelerates. They discuss stock-based compensation distorting earnings quality, rotations within AI beneficiaries, crowding and risk-off selloffs, and uncertainties around hyperscaler CapEx and OpenAI’s private-market marks. The conversation covers SaaS disruption risk, Tesla and SpaceX “selling the future,” China’s advantages, and why markets are faster but not smarter. Links Rules For Tech Investing (Google Drive) Follow Dan's SubStack: substack.com/@danbenton —FOLLOW USYouTube: @RiskReversalMediaInstagram: @riskreversalmediaTwitter: @RiskReversalLinkedIn: RiskReversal Media

Transcribed - Published: 4 March 2026

Dan Nathan and Guy Adami cover PPI, upcoming earnings, and this week’s jobs report. They focus on mounting stress in the AI infrastructure and financing complex: CoreWeave’s post-earnings drop, heavy customer concentration, funding challenges, and Jim Chanos’ critique that its GPU-leasing model loses money and shows distress-level liquidity, alongside declines in Apollo, KKR, Blackstone, and banks. They contrast Nvidia’s strong quarter and 60% growth outlook with stock stagnation, discuss Broadcom as a key AI barometer, and note ongoing software multiple and margin compression highlighted by volatile moves in Workday and Salesforce. Despite rising VIX swings, falling 10-year yields, and consumer-credit concerns signaled by AmEx, Capital One, Klarna, and Walmart trade-down commentary, the S&P remains near highs; they also discuss crude’s rebound amid Middle East tensions and Bitcoin weakness pressuring MicroStrategy. After the break, Jen & Kristen join Dan and Guy live from the iConnections Global Alts conference in Miami to unpack an “AI panic” market day, why higher productivity could mean higher rates, and what private credit hiccups really signal for hedge funds and alts. They also explain how The Wall Street Skinny is turning arcane finance jargon into plain English for everyone from college students to the C‑suite, plus why there are no dumb questions when it comes to bonds, credit, and careers on Wall Street. Timecodes 0:00 - Intro 2:00 - CoreWeave & The Software Slide 17:30 - VIX, SPX & The Consumer 25:00 - Yields & Crude 28:30 - Bitcoin & Broader Market 33:20 - He Said, She Said

Transcribed - Published: 2 March 2026

Dan Nathan hosts Peter Boockvar to discuss the rapid growth of private credit, arguing it has replaced bank lending but now faces rising defaults, potential liquidity mismatches as retail capital enters evergreen funds, and limited stress-testing in a downturn; they cite pressure in leveraged loans, gating/redemptions, and examples like Blue Owl financing tied to CoreWeave’s asset-heavy model and customer concentration. They connect credit stress to equity risk via the capital structure and watchpoints like the LSTA leveraged loan index, high yield spreads, and HYG. Boockvar outlines a leadership shift away from hyperscalers toward equal-weight and “boring” sectors like energy and staples, while warning a deeper tech decline could still pull markets down. They cover oil’s inflation implications, a challenging labor market, cautious consumers per Walmart/Home Depot/Lowe’s, bullish long-term gold/silver dynamics, stronger international performance, and Japan’s rising long-end yields affecting carry trades and global flows. Checkout Peter's SubStack: https://boockreport.com/Follow Peter on X: https://x.com/pboockvar?lang=en —FOLLOW USYouTube: @RiskReversalMediaInstagram: @riskreversalmediaTwitter: @RiskReversalLinkedIn: RiskReversal Media

Transcribed - Published: 27 February 2026

Broadcast live from iConnections Global Alts in South Beach, Guy Adami and Dan Nathan are joined by Dan Greenhaus of Solus Alternative Asset Management and later Vincent Daniel to discuss a sharp, risk-off market move tied to the increasingly financialized AI buildout. They review weakness across private credit and alternative lenders after reports of difficulty placing debt to fund CoreWeave’s data center, spilling over into names like Blue Owl and into large alternative managers, banks, and high-profile stocks like IBM, which suffers its worst day in decades. The group debates how a viral AI “thought experiment” amplified uncertainty about near-term industry disruption, the circular quid-pro-quo dynamics of AI financing and chip demand, and whether market valuations offer any cushion if the AI narrative falters. With Nvidia reporting the next day, they focus on expectations for growth and margins, the risk that competition could compress gross margins and re-rate the stock, and the broader question of whether AI success could drive major white-collar job losses, “ghost GDP,” and policy responses. The conversation closes with Vinnie describing investor “what if” fears around AI’s impact on employment and fee-based industries. —FOLLOW USYouTube: @RiskReversalMediaInstagram: @riskreversalmediaTwitter: @RiskReversalLinkedIn: RiskReversal Media

Transcribed - Published: 25 February 2026