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Coffee House Shots

The local elections: are we heading for a 1997 moment?

Coffee House Shots

The Spectator

Politics, Daily News, News

4.42.2K Ratings

🗓️ 5 May 2023

⏱️ 14 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

The local election results so far paint a fairly grim picture for the Conservatives, whilst Labour and the Liberal Democrats have made big gains in key areas. With Starmer in the advantage position ahead of the next general election, how will No. 10 respond? Is there a path for the Tories in 2024? 

Katy Balls speaks to Fraser Nelson and pollster James Johnson. 

Produced by Oscar Edmondson.

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Transcript

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0:00.0

This episode is sponsored by Canacord Genuity Wealth Management.

0:03.6

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0:08.0

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0:13.2

Visit KanduWealth.com.

0:19.6

Hello and welcome to Coffee Highest Shots. I'm Katie Walls.

0:22.8

Local election results are partly in.

0:26.0

We're going to take this moment to look at what we can tell from the results so far.

0:30.9

To do this, I'm joined by Fraser Nelson, the editor of the spectator,

0:34.7

and James Johnson, the poster. So to begin, James, we're at that point where there's still

0:40.6

several results more to come in. In fact, quite a lot, though I imagine once the

0:45.4

King's coronation gets underway, they'll be getting a little bit less attention

0:48.4

on the television than they are now. But what do you think the main takeaways are so far?

0:54.6

Well, I think this is clearly a good night for Labour. There's no doubt about that. It clearly

0:58.3

puts Labour in the advanced position for the next general election. It's also good for the

1:02.6

Lib Dems. Clearly, they're able to make a headway in those blue wall seats that the Conservatives

1:07.1

are defending in the South. Having said all that, when we look at the national equivalent vote,

1:12.3

yes, the Conservatives are down in terms of their behind Labour, but Labour are not sort of

1:18.3

getting a double digit's huge lead, at least with the Professor Michael Thrasher projection.

1:23.2

He's saying that Labour will be on between 38 to 40%, and that the Conservatives will be on

1:29.6

between 28 to 30%. So what that means is that if that was replicated in a general election,

1:35.2

there would be a hung parliament with Labour as the largest party. So what we're not seeing here

1:39.7

is a 90s Blair-style wipe out for Labour, and nor are we seeing a particularly good result

...

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