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Hello and welcome to the special Saturdays edition of Coffee House Shots.

I'm James Hill. I'm joined today by Fraser Nelson and Matthew Goodwin.

Fraser, you're at your column this week about how the UK's

post-Brexit model was supposed to be out ending cheap labour coming from abroad.

Tell us why has this changed and what are the problems facing the UK workforce?

Well, I was struck just looking at a couple of things. Sometimes in journalism you come across

stories in a small print which when you look at them you think, this is truly can't be right,

this is just so off such a big importance than to me. It was the Department of Work and

Compensions forecasts for the welfare caseload for the next five years.

Now, they're an amazing document actually. They estimate how many people are going to be

on sickness benefit and unemployment benefit etc and how much this is all going to cost.

Now, over the last few years their view of the next five years has changed a lot.

Moving from the situation where initially they thought that we weren't really going to have

any serious increase in anybody in sickness benefits. Now we think we're going to have

absolutely huge. We're talking something like two and a half thousand people a week

signing under sickness benefits. Twice the rate it was pretty pandemic with no end in sight,

leading to a huge increase in the caseload. Now this bites a huge chunk out of the workforce

and that leads me to the other forecast which again wasn't announced by the government.

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