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Capitalisn't

The Fertility Crisis: Capitalism's Next Challenge, with Sir Niall Ferguson

Capitalisn't

University of Chicago Podcast Network

Stigler Center, Chicago Booth, Socialism, Antitrust, University Of Chicago Podcast Network, Growth, 087667, Policy, Monopoly, Professors, Distortion, Research, Competition, Capitalisnt, Inequality, Promarket, Politics, Policymaking, Special Interest, Economics, Efficiency, Regulations, Chicago, Business, Markets, University Of Chicago, Kate Waldock, Capitalism, Friction, Bethany Mclean, Government, Macroeconomics, News, Education, Waldock, Georgetown, Microeconomics, Luigi Zingales, Zingales, Finance, Ucpn

4.5584 Ratings

🗓️ 21 November 2024

⏱️ 46 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

For years, the world worried about overpopulation and our capacity to sustain ever-increasing numbers of people. Now, the worry is underpopulation—and recent numbers are stunning. Fertility rate is the average number of children that are born to a woman over her lifetime. According to the United Nations, this number is currently 1.64 in the U.S.: If it stays this way, in three generations there will only be half as many young Americans as there are today, holding immigration constant. In China, this number is even lower: one child per woman. Just eight countries are expected to account for more than half the rise in global population between now and 2050. Economic theory is based on the idea of expansion, and humanity has been expanding since 1500. If that is about to change, then the very foundation of our economic theory will need rethinking. Acclaimed author, historian, and filmmaker Sir Niall Ferguson (Stanford/Harvard) joins Bethany and Luigi to discuss why we're heading toward a global population decline and what it all means for civilization. They discuss how factors like climate change, immigration, reproductive rights, artificial intelligence, and the trade-offs women face between career and motherhood are influencing decisions to have children. What are the implications of falling birth rates not just for the market economy but also for geopolitics and intergenerational conflict? Can we reverse trends in fertility before it is too late?

Transcript

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0:00.0

So the world of shrinking population will be a world with precisely the opposite of the dynamism

0:06.7

that characterized the period of rapid human population growth. It's a rather desolate prospect.

0:14.9

I'm Bethany McLean. Did you ever have a moment of doubt about capitalism and whether greed's a good idea?

0:21.9

And I'm Luigi Zengalis.

0:23.2

We have socialism for the very rich, rugged individualism for the poor.

0:28.7

And this is Capital Isn't, a podcast about what is working in capitalism.

0:32.7

First of all, tell me, is there some society you know that doesn't run on greed?

0:37.1

And most importantly, what is it?

0:39.1

We ought to do better by the people that get left behind.

0:42.0

I don't think we shouldn't kill the capital system in the process.

0:45.8

So, Bethany, if an economist and an historian, a general and a politician and

0:50.9

environmentalist, a futurologist and a journalist entering to a bar.

0:54.8

What do you think they talk about?

0:56.4

Is this your attempt at a joke? It sounds like a pretty terrible one, if you ask me.

1:01.2

Yeah, it is a dead joke, but they talk about fertility.

1:04.7

This is one of the rare topics that interests all of them.

1:08.4

There's been a dramatic shift, one that I think is not fully appreciated by most people,

1:13.9

from politicians to regular people.

1:16.7

The worry for years has been overpopulation.

1:19.6

Now, the worry, at least in some circles, is underpopulation.

1:23.6

And the recent numbers are stunning.

1:25.7

The fertility rate is the average number of children that are born to a woman over her lifetime. In the U.S.,. The fertility rate is the average number of children that are

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