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The Dividend Cafe

The DC Today - Tuesday, June 27, 2023

The Dividend Cafe

The Dividend Cafe - The Bahnsen Group

Business, Estate Planning, Wealth Management, Monetary Policy, Macro Economics, Dividend Growth Investing, Retirement Planning, Investing

4.9572 Ratings

🗓️ 27 June 2023

⏱️ 12 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3pr9HgK

So another day gone by and I don’t think the world knows much more than it has 24 hours ago about Putin and the weekend coup threat.

Natural gas prices have jumped from $2 to $2.80 BTU in just 15 days or so (+40%) and not surprisingly energy stocks with a natural gas focus have done much better than those exclusively focused on crude oil. One of the energy bear arguments seems to have really dissipated, and that was the idea that exposure to higher rates would be catastrophic for the highly levered energy sector (in 2020 it was often said that the debt cliffs these companies have would usher in a wave of bankruptcies). A new survey from the Dallas Fed of 150 oil and gas companies indicated that less than 20% see tighter credit conditions having a significant impact on their business.

New home sales were up +12.2% in May (volume) with supply down to 6.7 months (had been 7.6 months). My study is starting to indicate a worthlessness to national supply data when some markets are so substantially under-supplied and some suffering from big over-supply (making the aggregate number like the guy whose “average temperature” is found with one arm in the freezer and one in the oven). But what I would point out is that median sales prices have dropped -16.2% (for new homes) since their peak, right in the middle spot of that 10-20% drop I predicted (though this is just new homes, not existing, yet).

Seattle and San Francisco, by the way, have seen double-digit median price drops of existing homes. Hmmmmm

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Transcript

Click on a timestamp to play from that location

0:00.0

Welcome to the DC Today, your daily market synopsis of the Dividing Cafe, brought to you every Monday through Thursday to bring you up-to-date information and perspective on financial markets.

0:14.3

Well, hello and welcome to the Tuesday edition of the DC today.

0:18.3

Really interesting rally day in markets.

0:22.0

Again, consumer discretionary and technology kind of leading the way.

0:26.8

And every sector was positive except for health care, more of a defensive sector.

0:31.1

And even that was only down by about 20 basis points.

0:35.3

Let me get the market stuff out of the way so I can talk about some more fun

0:38.4

things here. Dow was up over 200 points. The S&P was up over 1%. Nasdaq up over 1.5%. The 10-year

0:47.7

Treasury was at 3.77, up 5 basis points. Oil fell off, 6770, down 2.4%. And yet most of the energy sector was

1:00.3

positive today. I suspect you may have had some rolling of futures there. But regardless,

1:07.8

you know, really big day overall in risk assets.

1:12.5

There are some economic data points that I wanted to go through.

1:16.6

Durable goods were up 1.7% in May, and that was double what it was expected.

1:21.6

And even if you take out transportation, it was up quite a bit more commercial aircraft, electronics, machinery, metals, computers, all up, not a ton, but up for the month.

1:33.0

And none of that was necessarily expected.

1:34.5

So that's some news there.

1:37.0

I think natural gas prices being up 40 percent in the last, a little over two weeks now is big news.

1:44.2

You can see a little bit of separation in the energy sector where stocks that are levered

1:49.3

to natural gas have done much better than ones that have a pure crude oil exposure.

1:54.4

I think one of the energy bear arguments, those that have been negative on the space,

2:00.6

has really dissipated around this

2:03.4

concern about debt and leverage and that the movement higher of interest rates posed a big

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