The DC Today - Monday, June 26, 2023
The Dividend Cafe
The Dividend Cafe - The Bahnsen Group
4.9 • 572 Ratings
🗓️ 26 June 2023
⏱️ 13 minutes
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Summary
Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3NMJ3bk
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Friday night the absolutely fascinating news hit that a coup d’etat was underway in Russia, or at least an attempted one, with mercenary chief, Yevgeny Prigozhin, leading troops out of Ukraine and into a city south of Moscow with significant military headquarters for Russia. Putin, of course, called the act a treasonous betrayal and vowed revenge. As the day went on Saturday it was announced that a truce had been reached and Prigozhin had called off the march on Moscow, and would be allowed to peacefully enter Belarus. But then over the next 24 hours more and more news and analysis came that seemed to indicate that, ummmm, maybe that wasn’t going to prove an entirely safe exit plan for Prigozhin.
The entire question comes down to whether or not this indicates the beginning of the end of the Ukraine war, and it is too early to tell. If nothing else, it still indicates a vulnerability for Putin, especially if reports are true that other Russian generals and oligarchs were actually favorable (quietly or out loud) to what Prigozhin was doing. I wouldn’t read too much into kneejerk responses from anyone, but it all does seem reasonable enough to say that (a) Putin’s position seems weaker than at any time since he took power, and (b) An internal Russian move may be a more likely end to Putin and the aggression against Ukraine than anything else we have seen so far.
Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Welcome to the DC Today, your daily market synopsis of the Dividing Cafe, brought to you every Monday through Thursday to bring you up-to-date information and perspective on financial markets. |
| 0:14.8 | Well, hello and welcome to the Monday edition of D.C. today coming at you live from our studio here in the New York office. |
| 0:23.0 | Really an interesting day. It was an interesting weekend. Actually, a lot of our time today will be covering some of these events in Russia over the weekend that in a lot of ways seem more like a future, you know, movie that a geopolitical thriller, |
| 0:42.2 | you know, brought to the big screen as opposed to market sensitive activity. But as has been the |
| 0:48.2 | case through a handful of things in this Russia-Ukraine war, there is certainly some degree of |
| 0:53.8 | market impact. I want to unpack a few things where we stand now. But just first, in terms of the market today, the Dow ended up flat on the day. It had been up 100 points, more or less that was the exact high. It had been down 100 points, more or less the exact low and closed, you know, right there in that midspot around zero. |
| 1:11.8 | The S&P, though, was down about half a percent and the NASDAQ was down over 1%. |
| 1:15.9 | So he had a very slight reversal of the trajectory from last week. |
| 1:21.1 | The top performing sectors today were real estate, which was up 2 and a quarter percent, |
| 1:27.2 | and energy, which was up 1 and 3 quarter percent, and energy, which was up one and |
| 1:29.7 | three quarters percent. And they had been hit last week and had a pretty sizable rally today. |
| 1:34.6 | And then the worst performing sector today was communication services, which was down almost |
| 1:39.8 | 2 percent that had been a big rally spot last week. So I don't know if it's a total mean reversion yet, |
| 1:46.6 | but at least a partial one here today. |
| 1:51.0 | That theme in markets, though, remains kind of the interesting story. |
| 1:55.3 | I'm going to unpack a lot more about this in Dividing Cafe on Friday, |
| 1:58.1 | but certainly it has remained a bifurcated market, |
| 2:03.1 | but bifurcated does not mean half up, half down. It's really been less than 20 companies that |
| 2:10.2 | are the lion's share of market returns, really six or seven that are a sizable amount of that, |
| 2:16.7 | and then kind of everything else you do have |
| 2:19.1 | just barely half it's a tiny bit over half the smp that is above its 200 day moving average |
| 2:25.3 | and then you know until the um uh more recent uh period you're talking about uh by recent, I mean, today, you're talking about banks and |
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