The DC Today - Thursday, June 8, 2023
The Dividend Cafe
The Dividend Cafe - The Bahnsen Group
4.9 • 572 Ratings
🗓️ 8 June 2023
⏱️ 8 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3WZi5jG
It has not been a great week for global bonds with extra rate hikes as of late in Canada and Australia as of late and a re-pricing of Fed expectations here in the U.S. has kept bond yields on the short end of the curve higher, and even flattened the curve a tad with longer-dated yields coming up.
We are still sitting at just a 74% chance of a pause in Fed action next week (in the futures market), meaning there is a 26% chance of another quarter-point hike. But there is a 64% chance of a rate hike in July …
In the meantime, jobless claims flew up to 261,000 this week from just 233,000 last week, a large and unexpected move that we will need until next week to see if it is just noise this week or the start of something more substantial.
Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Transcript
Click on a timestamp to play from that location
| 0:00.0 | Welcome to the DC Today, your daily market synopsis of the Dividing Cafe, brought to you every Monday through Thursday to bring you up-to-date information and perspective on financial markets. |
| 0:15.2 | Well, hello and welcome to the DC Today Thursday edition. We are getting near the end of the week. And we had another up day in market. You had the Dow up 168 points, about half a percent, S&P up a little over half a percent, the NASDAQ up right at 1%. And you had a bond rally as well, which we have not been having lately, but the 10-year |
| 0:39.9 | saw its yield dropped seven basis points down to 3.71 percent. So mostly up the entire |
| 0:48.6 | yield curve, you saw a rally in bonds. Global bonds have been going the other way for much of this week |
| 0:58.1 | and last week. You had a reasonably unexpected tone tenor and activity and rates from both |
| 1:05.4 | Australia and Canada. And of course, the repositioning around Fed expectations has caused a lot of these rates to |
| 1:13.4 | kind of push higher, pulling bond prices down. And yet, with the longer end of the curve coming up a bit, |
| 1:21.7 | it's actually served to flatten the yield curve a little bit, which still, of course, remains inverted. |
| 1:28.3 | So all that, not all that aside, today was a different story. |
| 1:32.7 | You had a bit of a move to the upside in bonds as yields dropped, and you had another nice |
| 1:38.5 | little move higher in stocks. |
| 1:41.3 | The leading sector today was consumer discretionary. |
| 1:44.9 | It was up 1.5% and the worst performing was real estate, which was down 60 basis points. |
| 1:54.2 | And then on the oil side, it stayed at $71. |
| 1:57.0 | It was down a couple percent, but WTI back firmly above 70 and closing it at $71. |
| 2:08.0 | What else? As far as the Fed funds futures market goes, and that's a mouthful with a lot of F words there. |
| 2:16.6 | See what I did there? You have a 74% chance in |
| 2:20.7 | implied probability right now of a pause next week at the FOMC June meeting. That is another way of |
| 2:27.9 | saying a 26% chance of a rate hike. So, you know, for the most part, by about a three to one percentage, it looks like the Fed will |
| 2:39.3 | not raise rates, which would be the first time going back all the way until March or April |
| 2:44.1 | of 2022, that the Fed hasn't raised rates at one of these FMC meetings. |
| 2:49.6 | But in July, the same futures markets are pricing in a |
... |
Please login to see the full transcript.
Disclaimer: The podcast and artwork embedded on this page are from The Dividend Cafe - The Bahnsen Group, and are the property of its owner and not affiliated with or endorsed by Tapesearch.
Generated transcripts are the property of The Dividend Cafe - The Bahnsen Group and are distributed freely under the Fair Use doctrine. Transcripts generated by Tapesearch are not guaranteed to be accurate.
Copyright © Tapesearch 2026.