The DC Today Thursday, June 29, 2023
The Dividend Cafe
The Dividend Cafe - The Bahnsen Group
4.9 • 572 Ratings
🗓️ 29 June 2023
⏱️ 7 minutes
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Summary
Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3prCOAq
An upward revision in Q1 GDP fueled by stronger consumer spending and exports, jobless claims figures that came in better than expected, and a passing grade for all US banks in Fed stress test results were what fueled today’s market rally and run-up in short-term rates.
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Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Welcome to the DC Today, your daily market synopsis of the Dividing Cafe, brought to you every Monday through Thursday to bring you up-to-date information and perspective on financial markets. |
| 0:13.0 | Hello, and welcome to D.C. today, Thursday, June 29th, almost about a day away through halfway point on the year. Nice day in markets today. |
| 0:23.6 | The Dow was up almost 270 points. S&P was up about half a percent, little less. NASDAQ was flat on the day. |
| 0:30.5 | We had a couple of good data points out today that kind of fueled the rally, which was nice to see. GDP for Q1 |
| 0:36.6 | was revised up from 1.3 to 2%. So a pretty big upward |
| 0:41.5 | revision. A lot of that was, or the biggest contributor was consumer spending, which was as something |
| 0:47.0 | like 4.2% inside of that number, which is great to see. The one thing I'll say to that to take |
| 0:53.1 | it sort of with a grain of salt |
| 0:54.3 | is just that we also had about an 8.5 or 8.7% increase in Social Security COLA, cost of |
| 1:01.8 | adjustment, living adjustment amount from the government in there too. So that could have been |
| 1:06.2 | what you, you know, kind of what fueled some of that consumer spending. But exports actually were |
| 1:10.6 | up nicely inside of that number two. But exports actually were up nicely |
| 1:11.2 | inside of that number two, something like 8%, little less than 8% in there too. So I think that was |
| 1:15.4 | the better part of that number. But any upward revision of GDP is always welcome. So you had that |
| 1:20.5 | is good news. There was completed Dodd-Frank stress test that the Fed concluded today, which showed all 23 banks |
| 1:28.5 | passing and pretty meaningful stress test. It equated to something like a big recession globally, |
| 1:34.7 | unemployment rising up to 10 percent and equated to something like a $541 billion loss |
| 1:40.2 | inside of the banking system. They were able to withstand that. It included a 40% drawdown in |
| 1:45.9 | commercial real estate values, which is a topic de jure lately after Silicon Valley Bank failure |
| 1:52.7 | with what if commercial prices go down. All those lenders are going to struggle with not getting |
| 1:57.8 | repaid on their loans and things. So, so pretty decent stress test and |
| 2:01.0 | good results on the day. The labor market continues to show strength. The jobless numbers that came out |
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